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☆ Morning Bid: Volatility stirs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

World markets end a rough week of confusing and competing narratives in distinctly edgy form, with peculiarly subdued volatility gauges flickering back to life. Both 10 and 30-year yields hit their highest levels in over a month early on Friday. Job shedding in the digital sector continued, with Yahoo's plans to lay off more than 20% of its total workforce. That said, the year-on-year oil price trend continues to be negative, as it's been all year and base effects from last year's price spike around the Ukraine invasion will only deepen that and weigh on headline inflation further. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next, cutting its Brent 2023 price forecast by $6 to $92 per barrel - still above current levels around $86.

☆ Treasury yields hold steady as investors await economic data, Fed speaker remarks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 3.6883% after rising by less than one basis point. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last down by less than one basis points to 4.5043%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors looked to economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials to assess the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Investors assessed the outlook for the U.S. economy, especially regarding whether inflation is easing, and what that could mean for monetary policy. Also on Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are expected to make remarks, which investors will be scanning for hints about future monetary policy.

☆ Treasury yields soar as investors assess economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over five basis points to 3.5876%. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.3742% after climbing by more than seven basis points. U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as investors assessed the economic outlook and awaited a series of data releases and Federal Reserve speaker remarks slated for the week. Investors considered the outlook for the U.S. economy, including inflation developments and whether a deep recession could be avoided. A series of Fed speakers are also due to make remarks, including Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

☆ Did investors learn nothing from last year’s market meltdown?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Shares of movie theater chain AMC (AMC) have soared nearly 65% so far in 2023, and AMC (AMC)’s companion preferred stock (which trades under the ticker APE as a nod to the nickname AMC (AMC) fans have given themselves on social media) has more than doubled. So did investors learn nothing from last year’s market meltdown? I don’t agree with this market rally in meme stocks,” said Erik Ristuben, chief investment strategist with Russell Investments. Another strategist agrees this recent rally for meme stocks and other speculative bets may not end well. If they’re upbeat about spending, that could keep the rally in consumer stocks going.

☆ Did the economy end 2022 with a bang or a whimper?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But the United States economy still seems to be chugging along just fine after experiencing a hiccup in the first half of 2022. Despite worries about weaker consumer spending during the holidays, economists are forecasting solid growth for the fourth quarter. Yearning for earningsMore blue chip companies will report fourth quarter results (and perhaps give guidance about the first quarter of 2023 and beyond) this week. But according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters, earnings for the tech sector are expected to fall nearly 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Dow (DOW), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX) and American Express (AXP).

☆ Asia-Pacific markets set to trade mixed on cooled U.S. inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

People look at a smartphone in front of electronic boards displaying stock information inside the Australian Securities Exchange, operated by ASX Ltd., in Sydney, Australia. Markets in the Asia-Pacific were set to trade mixed as expectations of cooled inflation in the U.S. lifted investor sentiment in the region. On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed the one-year inflation outlook fell to 4%, the third straight monthly decrease and the lowest level since April 2021. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5% in its first hour of trade. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 25,830 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 25,780 — lower than the Nikkei 225 's last close at 26,119.52.

☆ Treasury yields mixed as investors digest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by less than a basis point to 3.4394 at 4:34 a.m. ET and the yield on the 30-year Treasury was up by around one basis point to 3.5849%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by close to two basis points and was trading at around 4.1187%. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Friday as investors digested the latest inflation report and considered the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Speaking at a local event in Pennsylvania on Thursday, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker indicated he was prepared to move to 25 basis point rate hikes.

☆ US stocks rise to finish best week since November as major banks warn of tough times ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks rose on Friday and finished off their best week since November. All three indexes gained despite warnings from major banks of tough times ahead. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America have forecast a mild recession to hit the economy in 2023. In particular, S&P 500 rose to finish its best week since November, when investors bet inflation would decline into the new year. Executives from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America said they expect a mild recession to hit the economy this year.

☆ Treasury yields fall as traders look ahead to key economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury was trading at around 3.5687% after falling by around five basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last down by over three basis points to 4.22%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as traders looked to key economic data releases due later this week that could provide fresh insights into the state of the U.S. economy. The Fed implemented a 50 basis point rate hike at its December meeting, a slight decline from the 75 basis point increases it announced at its previous four meetings. No major data releases are slated for Wednesday.

☆ Has inflation finally peaked?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-08 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But for investors, consumers and the Federal Reserve, inflation remains a major economic concern, just as it was in 2022. The hope is that inflation pressures will cool even more dramatically as the year progresses. We believe inflation peaked in June,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer with Laffer Tengler Investments, in a report. Inflation impact on the Fed and housingWhat’s more, lower levels of inflation should allow the Fed to keep slowing its pace of interest rate hikes. But if inflation pressures continue to abate – and the Fed acknowledges that by pulling back on rate hikes – then the housing market may rebound.

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ Tom Lee says there's a chance the Fed pauses hiking for all of 2023, sparking a massive stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fundstrat sees that coming in at 4.4%, also below current Wall Street expectations. "Fed framework likely changes to 'predictable Fed' as inflation is now operating near their long-term goal of 2%," wrote Lee in the note this week. "This would be a massive dovish pivot, in our view, and could mean Fed pauses entirely in 2023 (maybe)." Lee's call is well outside expectations on Wall Street. Volatility easing to spark big rally The next piece of the Lee's theory is that as the Fed changes its policy, stock market volatility will collapse.

☆ Housing slump to continue but some hopeful signs ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become. A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. Housing market was frothy, but not a bubbleOthers in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well. That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.

☆ Economists think inflation has peaked. Main Street is preparing for more pain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Ian Thomas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An overwhelming majority (78%) of America's entrepreneurs say they expect inflation to continue to rise, according to the quarterly CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. That is effectively unchanged from last quarter when 77% said they expected inflation to continue to rise. Regardless of the economic tailwinds, inflation remains top of mind for small business owners. More small business owners (45%) now say inflation is the biggest risk to their business than tracked in any of the previous recent quarterly survey. The CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q4 2022 was conducted Nov. 9-Nov. 16 among nearly 2,600 small business owners.

☆ Treasury yields dip as investors await wholesale inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down by just over one basis point to 3.4815% at 4:17 a.m. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was at 4.2838% after dipping by close to three basis points. Treasury yields slipped on Friday as investors awaited the release of November's producer price index, which will provide fresh insights into whether inflation is easing. Investors are widely expecting the Fed to implement a 50 basis point rate hike then and are hoping officials will provide new insights into the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy. Preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment figures for December are another key data point investors will be watching closely on Friday.

☆ Is the worst over for bitcoin and the rest of crypto?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

This is not the first crypto winter, as long-term fans of bitcoin can attest. “It is very clear that we as an industry need to build better products,” said Hany Rashwan, CEO of 21.co, a crypto investment firm. That’s about triple where prices were during the depths of the crypto bear market in the early pandemic days of 2020. Others point out that the underlying blockchain technology behind bitcoin and crypto remains solid. Pride and Reynolds added that it’s erroneous to think that bitcoin can hold up well during stock market volatility.

☆ Cramer’s week ahead: Markets need a strong job market, tame inflation to stay up
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But if the job market stays strong and inflation stays tame, we could be in for still one more very good week," he said. Tuesday: AutoZone, Toll Brothers, SentinelOneAutoZoneQ1 2023 earnings release at 6:55 a.m. Wednesday: Campbell Soup, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Brown-Forman, Lowe'sCampbell SoupQ1 2023 earnings release at 7:30 a.m. Brown-FormanQ2 2023 earnings release at 8 a.m. ETProjected EPS: $1.96Projected revenue: $1.81 billionCramer said he's betting Lululemon will beat Wall Street expectations in its latest quarter.

☆ Investors look for clues on consumer health as holiday shopping kicks off
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Investors are closely watching U.S. retail stocks as a barometer of consumer confidence as inflation bites, as the most important shopping season of the year begins on Friday. That would come in below both the 13.5% jump reported last year, and the 9.3% gain in 2020. Expectations for purchasing long-lasting manufactured goods fell 21% due to high interest rates and high prices, the survey found. Shares of Walmart are up 7.5% for the month to date, while shares of Target are down 1.2%. Kohl's, meanwhile, withdrew its forecast as it faces weakening demand due to rising prices.

☆ Investors have very little to be thankful for in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Oil stocks have been huge winners this year, thanks to the spike in crude prices…which boosted sales and profits. For now, at least, energy investors are reaping the rewards. And there are also opportunities for investors looking for a little more risk…and potential reward. Finally, investors who’ve bet against the stock market also can give thanks for this year’s volatility. PC giants Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) also report results this week.

☆ Stock futures rise slightly after S&P 500 posts its biggest one-day rally since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were slightly higher on Thursday night after better-than-feared inflation data fueled a broad market rally. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 58 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also gained about 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. In regular trading, the major averages posted their biggest one-day rallies since 2020. The Dow is up 4% on a weekly basis, while the S&P and Nasdaq are on pace for increases of 4.9% and 6.1%, respectively.

☆ Stocks week ahead: How the midterms could affect Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Investors are more than happy when politicians bicker but don’t actually enact any new laws that may hurt corporate profits. If Republicans get the House, tax hikes are dead in the water,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager with Aptus Capital Advisors. That’s because there are some areas of consensus for the White House and Republican lawmakers. Congress and the White House may spend more time bickering than trying to pass legislation. Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene said on a conference call last week about the midterms that stocks have historically gone up after elections, no matter which party controls the White House and Congress.

☆ Stocks week ahead: Get ready for earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-09 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

We’ll get a better sense this week when several top financial firms and consumer companies report third-quarter earnings. The robust greenback will hurt sales and profits for these firm’s international operations. “Bank balance sheets and capital positions both remain in solid shape,” said KBW analyst David Konrad in a bank earnings preview report. The US government will report the latest monthly reads on consumer prices and wholesale prices next week. The consumer price index, or CPI, is the one investors will be watching most closely.

☆ Virginia Gov. Youngkin predicts GOP midterm wins could help ease recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin predicts that Republican gains in the 2022 midterms could help curb recession fears. Youngkin, a Republican, said Americans generally think his party will take back the House and that he's "cautiously optimistic" they will also retake the Senate as well. Youngkin has declared Virginia "open for business" and sought to attract companies to the state. Youngkin predicted that Republican gains in the 2022 midterms could boost the economy in the same way that, he says, former President Donald Trump's 2016 win did. When Donald Trump won all of the sudden optimism went back into the market and we avoided a recession."

☆ Stocks week ahead: Intel is the Dow's biggest loser
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-25 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Shares of Intel (INTC) are down more than 45% this year, making it the biggest dog of the Dow. Intel (INTC) is struggling despite well-publicized plans to build more plants in the United States and hire more at home. To be fair, Intel is not the only chip company that’s having a tough time this year. But longer-term, I think Intel will right the ship,” said Jeff Travis, portfolio manager of Oak Associates Funds. Travis does think that semiconductor stocks are still a good “secular growth industry” and that valuations are now attractive given how sharply the stocks have fallen.

☆ Stocks could continue skittish trading until interest rate move calms down
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.

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