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☆ Stock market carnage isn't over yet as soaring bond yields send investors into 'extreme fear' mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market isn't going to recover from its recent rout soon as three headwinds remain, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted that valuations are still too high, and interest rates are too restrictive. Investors have entered "extreme fear" mode as interest rates surge to a new cycle-high. "Our cautious outlook will likely remain in place as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has entered "extreme fear" territory over the past week as investors fret about high interest rates.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, CNN

☆ What are zero-day options? Here's how they're taking over a key corner of the stock market and why they could pose a big risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's been one year since the CBOE launched zero-day options contracts and they're starting to take over the stock market. Zero-day options expire the same day they are issued and they now make up 50% of S&P 500 options activity. A new ETF has launched utilizing the options contracts, and with enough scale they could jolt the stock market in a big way. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere's a new options trading product that is taking over Wall Street, and it could ultimately pose a big risk for the stock market as it gains in scale. Defiance recently launched two ETFs that write puts via zero-day options on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Persons: It's, —, CBOE, JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Nasdaq Locations: YOLO

☆ JPMorgan’s top stock guru stays bearish on market, sees headwinds for any risk asset
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"This reasoning is based on market valuations (fundamentals), investor positioning, and various macro and geopolitical considerations." Higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve have stoked investor worry on Wall Street. Kolanovic is JPMorgan's chief global market strategist who gained notoriety for correctly calling the post-pandemic rebound in stocks, something very few on Wall Street anticipated. In the near term, the strategist believes stocks could fall further until some of these headwinds subside. Most Wall Street strategists expect the S & P 500 to rebound above 4,300 before the year is out, according to the exclusive CNBC PRO strategist survey .

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, CNBC PRO

☆ 'We are becoming more convinced that the cracks are emerging': JPMorgan warns a host of recession risks are starting to pile up — and shares 2 trades to keep your portfolio safe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect

☆ US households are on the brink with excess savings likely to be depleted by month-end, San Francisco Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Savings built up by American households during the pandemic are all but gone, the San Francisco Fed says. In 2021, Americans had amassed a record $2.1 trillion in excess savings, spurred by government stimulus checks and a drop in in-person spending. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Our updated estimates suggest that households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings by June. There is considerable uncertainty in the outlook, but we estimate that these excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023," San Francisco Fed analysts said in a recent blog. As of July 2023, the US personal savings rate stood at 3.5% – below pre-pandemic averages.

Persons: San Francisco Fed, –, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: San Francisco, Service, San Francisco Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ JPMorgan says the biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The biggest risk of de-dollarization is that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past crises, JPMorgan said. De-dollarization risks mostly relate to inflation and debt burdens, strategists said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Instead, the key de-dollarization risk that Western economies face is mostly related to inflation and their debt burdens, they explained. Bu while JPMorgan expects "marginal de-dollarization," to take place, the pace is not expected to be rapid.

Persons: —, Marko Kolanovic, dollarization Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, West, AA, AAA Locations: Western, Wall, Silicon, East, Ukraine

☆ The risk of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months is rising as high rates bite and the stock market's AI rally fades, JPMorgan's quant chief says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a lot that could go wrong in the stock market that investors are not fully appreciating. That's according to JPMorgan's quant chief, Marko Kolanovic, who is worried about high interest rates. "We think there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next six to 12 months," he said. For Kolanovic to turn more bullish on the stock market, he needs to see two things — and they have nothing to do with the promise of AI. Instead, he wants to see interest rates fall around the world, as well as a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in Russia and China.

Persons: JPMorgan's, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia, China

☆ The 2023 stock market rally is over as the Fed isn't easing anytime soon and a hard landing of the economy is inevitable, JPMorgan's chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in the S&P 500 is capped through the rest of the year, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos said. That's because there are a litany of negative factors heading into 2024 that will weigh on equities. The strength of the US economy has only postponed a coming recession, not averted one, he added. Stocks could tumble 15% even in the event of a mild downturn, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic predicted in a recent note. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are now pricing in a 42% chance the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis-points in November.

Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Dubravko Lakos, Lakos, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC, Investors, Bank of America, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The AI boom won't be enough to avoid a hard landing for the economy, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The excitement around artificial intelligence has helped the stock market soar in 2023, but the growth won't be enough to keep the U.S. economy out of a recession, according to a top JPMorgan strategist. "In terms of AI driving massive productivity gains for the broader economy, yes, but like 3 years from now, 4 years from now. Predictions of a recession and a struggling stock market were more common on Wall Street earlier this year, but the U.S. has continued to add jobs while inflation has declined, and the stock market has rebounded. "I think there is no landing … until you get to [a] hard landing. JPMorgan has a year-end price target of 4,200 for the S & P 500 , which is below average among major Wall Street firms.

Persons: Dubravko, Bujas, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Global stock market correction likely before year-end: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataReuters poll graphic on global stock market outlookBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Global stock markets are heading for a correction in coming months, though overall they should post marginal gains between now and the end of 2023, according to a majority of analysts polled by Reuters. A bad year for stocks in 2022 carried into this year as global central banks battled inflation with interest rate rises that are now largely drawing to an end. A 71% majority of analysts, 55 of 77, who answered an additional question in the Aug. 9-23 poll said a correction by year-end in their local equity market was either likely or very likely. A "fear of missing out" is said to have helped drive much of the equity market rallies of recent years. The year-end forecast in February's Reuters poll was 4,200.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Terry Sandven, Europe's, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, John Stonestreet Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Treasury, NIKKEI, February's Reuters, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Japan's Nikkei, IPC, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Jackson, February's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto

☆ Consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic. That's just one reason why stocks are poised to fall, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted the softening of the consumer as one reason why stocks are poised to continue their decline. In a Thursday note, he said consumers have spent down the entirety of their excess savings from the pandemic, which at one point totaled more than $2 trillion. A softening consumer is just one reason why he is preaching continued caution towards the stock market amid its 5% decline, according to the note. Another headwind for the stock market is the fact that rich valuations make buybacks less attractive for companies when they're funded by debt, he added.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Germany

☆ JPMorgan's top stock guru says stay underweight equities, investors are too optimistic about economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's top stock picker Marko Kolanovic says investors should stay underweight equities. But Kolanovic said investors are ignoring the risks that could still lead to a recession. These include the small chance that central banks in developed markets around the world would ease back on interest rates anytime soon. Given this, the strategist advised investors remain underweight equities, particularly in riskier growth stocks. "As such, we maintain an overall defensive stance in our model portfolio, and continue to be UW equities and credit vs. OW in cash and commodities," he said.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Moody's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Reserve, Regional Banking

☆ More firms on Wall Street are bracing for a stock sell-off. Here's why JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others say the market's huge gains are at risk.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'People give up on recession just as it arrives': Don't count out an economic downturn just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Despite solid economic data, some Wall Street strategists are sticking with their gloomy outlook for the economy and stocks. But don't count out a decline just yet: "People give up on recession just as it arrives." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Société GénéraleEdwards isn't the only bear on Wall Street. And as Edwards highlighted, a decline in profits usually leads to an uptick in layoffs, which could ultimately hurl this economy into a recession.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, Société Générale Edwards, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Service, Survey, Loan, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

keep Big Tech booming? Nasdaq futures are up on Tuesday morning, ahead of a Big Tech earnings bonanza that kicks off when Microsoft and Alphabet report second-quarter results after the closing bell. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, apologized to clients on Monday, writing that his pessimistic stock market calls failed to spot the surge in A.I.-related stocks. On the other hand, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase’s chief market strategist, is unconvinced that tech fervor will help the markets avoid a sharp decline this year. All eyes will be on Microsoft and Alphabet, which are at the forefront of commercializing generative A.I., the technology behind chatbots like ChatGPT that have captured the public’s imagination.

Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s, Marko Kolanovic, — Organizations: Big Tech, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nvidia, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase’s, Google

JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist, Marko Kolanovic, advises investors to play commodities against recession risks. Kolanovic named natural gas as his top pick within the commodities sector. Investors can look to the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) to gain exposure to the commodity; it's down about 48% year to date. The strategist forecasts U.S. natural gas prices to undergo a 25% rally in the next few months on expectations of a supply growth reversal. Backwardation is what happens when the spot price is higher than the price of the approaching futures' contracts.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: United States Natural Gas Fund, DB Agriculture Fund, Brent Oil Fund Locations: U.S

☆ JPMorgan's top equity guru says buy more government bonds, avoid stocks as a recession looms at the turn of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should buy more government bonds to brace for the likelihood of a recession hitting later this year, JPMorgan's top equity strategist says. Investors are increasingly deserting defensive positions as more market participants expect a soft landing scenario for the economy. But JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said investors are mistaken and continues to see a year-end recession as his base case outlook. "This benign and complacent pricing of recession risk, along with increasing signs that a credit cycle is emerging, makes us turn more negative on corporate bonds and more positive on government bonds," Kolanovic wrote to clients Monday. "We therefore trim our allocation to credit by shifting two percentage points away from corporate bonds and into government bonds in our model portfolio," Kolanovic wrote.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Nasdaq Locations: 4Q23

☆ It's not just tech. FOMO is in full swing across the stock market, and investors are about to be disappointed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market has entered full FOMO territory this year, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. And investor enthusiasm is not just concentrated in tech stocks, with broad market valuations appearing stretched. "There is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range," Kolanovic said. That's not cheap, as the historical forward P/E of the index is 15.3x, meaning that current valuations represent a 10% premium. "FOMO is in full swing, there is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range," Kolanovic said in a Monday note.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, it's, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: VIX, Service, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon, 17.4x, Japan

☆ The Fed took a break from hiking rates for the first time in 15 months. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

If you missed yesterday's Federal Reserve decision — and how the market reacted — you've come to the right place. In this March 21, 2018, file photo, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from the March meeting of its policymakers on Wednesday, April 11. US stock futures edge lower early Thursday after the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes but hinted there were more to come. The housing market is so tight right now because 90% of homeowners are already locked into low mortgage rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Carolyn Kaster, it'll, there's, Powell, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, it's, Martin Puddy, that's, Elon Musk's, Goldman Sachs, Musk, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Washington, Silicon, insider.com, Beijing, China, Detroit, New York, London

☆ The U.S. economy keeps skirting recession, but consumer sector might slowly be splitting apart
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The signals that economists lean on to gauge the odds of a recession are contradictory at the moment. The yield curve remains deeply inverted, and manufacturing surveys have been flashing recession signals for months. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to just 25%. watch nowBut can the strong consumer sector continue to hold up as the pandemic-era savings fade away and interest rates remain elevated? Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Dollar General's stock fell sharply after the retailer cut its full-year outlook.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Marko Kolanovic, Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin, It's, Nick Bunker, they're, Bunker Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, PMI, JPMorgan, New York Life Investments, Target, American Airlines, Labor, Meta, Disney, North America Locations: Carlsbad , California, U.S

☆ The worst liquidity crunch since the Lehman Brothers crisis will be the stock market's biggest obstacle this summer, JPMorgan's chief equity strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The worst liquidity crunch since the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse will be a big headwind for the stock market this summer, according to JPMorgan. The bank's chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic warned that the expected liquidity decline could add to recession fears. "Broad liquidity in the US... will contract by another $1.1 trillion from here till year-end," Kolanovic said. In year-over-year terms, this would represent the worst US broad liquidity contraction since that seen after the Lehman crisis," Kolanovic said. A sharp liquidity decline in the US is unlikely to be offset by the rest of the world, Kolanovic said.

Persons: Lehman, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, —, frothiness Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Lehman Brothers, US Treasury

☆ The tech rally is entering the bubble domain, says JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe tech rally is entering the bubble domain, says JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan chief global markets strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the tech rally's run and markets.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Marko Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Japan stocks are on fire this year. Here are 3 reasons why the rally could have 'staying power'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Since then, Japanese equities have rallied. Even so, Strategas Securities' Chris Verrone has remained optimistic on Japanese equities, saying this week that the rally is not yet overbought. Meanwhile, JPMorgan chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note, also on Tuesday, that the rally in Japan still has "staying power." For international investors, those remarks signaled that Japanese companies may be more transparent with shareholders in the future. Investors can also take a company-specific approach, according to Diamond Hill's Mohanraj, who favors Japanese companies that boast differentiated products.

☆ JPMorgan says stocks' risk/reward is 'poor,' recommends adding to cash and gold holdings
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's time for investors to build out their cash and gold positions, said JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic. The S & P 500 is standing near year-to-date highs, after notching its best week since March last week on hopes of a debt ceiling resolution. Given this, the chief strategist recommends investors take a more defensive stance in their portfolios, saying he favors cash and gold over energy, equities and credit. Meanwhile, in commodities, he added to his gold allocation by cutting two percentage points from his energy holdings, according to the note. "Within commodities, we rotate from energy (given recession risks and a potentially fading China growth impulse), to gold following its recent sell-off (on its safe-haven demand and as a debt ceiling hedge)," he added.

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Stocks, Kolanovic, they're Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve Locations: China

☆ De-dollarization and global reserves dominance, explained by a top currency economist and the inventor of the 'dollar smile' theory
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Eurizon SLJStephen Jen is a leading economist, the cofounder and CEO of Eurizon SLJ, and inventor of the "dollar smile" theory. Phil Rosen: You pointed out recently that the dollar saw a steep erosion in 2022 as a global reserve currency. More likely, we will evolve from a unipolar reserve currency world to a multi-polar world. Here's what he said on a potential "tripolar" reserve currency setup if the dollar loses dominance. And here are the top stories from markets this week:Lauren Simmons, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange.

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