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July 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Friday's non-farm payrolls report for June could cement the hawkish outlook for U.S. rates and yields. The MSCI World share index on Thursday posted its biggest decline since April, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index had its biggest fall since February and second biggest this year. The Hang Seng Mainland Banks Index (.HSMBI) tumbled 6.4% on Thursday to a new low for the year, its biggest one-day fall since February 2018. It is down almost 10% this week, also on course for its biggest weekly fall in more than five years.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Josie Kao Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Mainland Banks Index, . Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Korean, China . U.S, Beijing, China, Hong Kong, Mainland, South Korea

June 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The MSCI World index climbed almost 1%, its best day in four weeks, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index snapped a six-day losing streak. Together with lower oil prices, falling market volatility and a generally weaker dollar, this augers well for Asian equity markets and risk appetite on Wednesday. Beijing may be better equipped to steer the yuan where it wants, as it already closely manages the currency. Rates traders see the RBA hiking rates by another 50 basis points to 4.55% by next March.

Persons: Jamie McGeever Organizations: Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Tokyo, China, Beijing, Australia, South Korea

June 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. It is unclear what the immediate impact of Russian mercenaries' advance on Moscow, retreat and apparent deal with President Vladimir Putin will be on risk appetite and demand for traditional 'safe haven' assets like gold, Treasuries, the Japanese yen or the U.S. dollar. These assets would likely have attracted strong investor demand first thing on Monday morning had the Wagner group's march on Moscow continued. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, MSCI World Index, China's major indices and Japan's Nikkei 225 index all posted their biggest losses since March last week. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, a broad measure of Asian stocks, slumped 4.2%, its worst week since September.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Antony Blinken, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S ., Investors, . Stock, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Russia, Moscow, U.S, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany

☆ Morning Bid: Fragile markets wait on PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) looks set to snap a 10-week winning streak and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was poised for its worst week of the year, as rates and inflation look higher for longer. The yen earned some reprieve, but it's shaky and at 143 to the dollar is firmly in intervention-watch territory. The Aussie, a growth bellwether, is quickly unwinding a two-week rally and Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are down 3% in three days. The sour turn leaves markets in a delicate spot ahead of global purchasing managers' index surveys due through the day. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Friday:Europe, UK and U.S. PMIsUK Retail SalesReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tom Westbrook, Sterling, Threadneedle, Muralikumar Organizations: Bank of England's, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMIs, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Lira, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: How high will BoE go?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After a hotter than anticipated inflation report on Wednesday, markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a half a percentage point hike. Economists, polled by Reuters last week, unanimously expected the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 bps to 4.75%, their highest since 2008. Markets are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 bps hike next month and then no more, according to CME FedWatch tool. Swiss National Bank and Norway's Norges Bank are also due to announce their policy decisions, with a 25 basis point hike widely expected from both central banks. Reuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Thursday:Economic events: Policy rate decision from BoE, Turkey's central bank, Swiss National Bank and Norway's Norges BankReporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, BoE, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Muralikumar Organizations: Ankur, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal, Swiss National Bank, Norway's Norges Bank, Thomson Locations: Europe, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Japan, Turkey's, Singapore

☆ CNBC Daily Open: China, the dozing dragon
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Blinken unexpectedly meets XiU.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended his China visit by meeting with Xi Jinping, the country's president. Blinken's meeting could pave the way for U.S. President Joe Biden to meet Xi in November. The country's mortgage market's so volatile that HSBC temporarily stopped offering some home loans earlier this month.

Persons: Blinken, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, Blinken's, Joe Biden, Xi, Buffett, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Morgan Stanley Organizations: CNBC, Xi U.S, U.S, Juneteenth, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, HSBC, Asia Locations: Lujiazui, Pudong, Shanghai, China, frayed U.S, America, Itochu, Berkshire, Japan, Asia Pacific

June 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was cut to 3.55% and the five-year LPR was cut to 4.20%. The yuan has been trading through 7.00 per dollar every day since May 18, and is now approaching 7.20/dollar. On the Chinese corporate front, investors are digesting the news of changes at the top of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group (9988.HK). The main global event for markets on Wednesday is likely to be Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Affairs Committee.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, weren't, Daniel Zhang, Eddie Yongming Wu, Joseph Tsai, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal, Bank of, The Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Investors, Alibaba, HK, House Financial, Committee, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan

The PBOC last week lowered short- and medium-term policy rates, paving the way for lower benchmark borrowing costs. Several major banks have cut their 2023 GDP growth forecasts for China to a 5.1% to 5.7% range from an earlier range of 5.5% to 6.3%. Chinese stocks on Monday posted their biggest fall in two weeks, but the weakness was not confined to China. The MSCI World index came off last week's 14-month high, Japan's Nikkei lost 1%, and Hong Kong tech and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index both had their biggest falls in three weeks. Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Antony Blinken's, Tingshu Wang, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: People's Bank of China, Japan's Nikkei, REUTERS, State, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Beijing, Malaysian, Hong Kong, China, Asia, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia

☆ Alibaba and more: Morgan Stanley names 5 global stocks with at least 50% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley expects five of its top Asia stock picks to rise by more than 50% over the next 12 months. Alibaba Alibaba Group, the Chinese technology giant that's also listed in the United States, is making significant progress in its restructuring process, according to Morgan Stanley. "The likelihood of generics being immediately released in May 2024 is low," Morgan Stanley analysts Shinichiro Muraoka and Jaeheon Lee said in a note to clients on June 12. Sea Despite the challenges from inflation and post-pandemic economic reopenings, Morgan Stanley still sees long-term potential in Sea Limited . JD.com Morgan Stanley highlighted JD.com , a leading Chinese e-commerce company, for its potential growth as Chinese consumer spending picks up.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, Gary Yu, Astellas, Astellas Pharma Morgan Stanley, Shinichiro Muraoka, Jaeheon Lee, JD.com Morgan Stanley, Eddy Wang, Ping, Jenny Jiang Organizations: Asia, Alibaba, Street, Astellas Pharma, Ping An Insurance Locations: Asia, Asia Pacific, Japan, China, India, United States, U.S, Singapore

June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Looking ahead and beyond China, investors have two other Asian monetary policy decisions this week to digest - Indonesia's Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday. Both are likely to leave policy unchanged, with BI maintaining its benchmark lending rate at 5.75% and the BSP keeping its key policy rate at 6.25%. The broader market tone across Asia on Monday could be one of caution, with investors tempted to take some profits from the recent rally. The annual core CPI rate is expected to ease to 3.1% from 3.4% in April.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Antony Blinken's, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang, Antony Blinken, Leslie Adler Organizations: People's Bank of, Indonesia's Bank Indonesia, Sentral ng Pilipinas, BI, BSP, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, People's Bank of China, Beijing, American, China, Philippines, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong

☆ Hopes for a Fed pause bolster risk rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Traders are putting a 95% probability on the Fed standing pat on Wednesday, a consensus so strong the Fed will almost certainly respect. The focus for investors will be on the statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signs on whether it will be a ‘hawkish’ or ‘dovish’ pause. The NYSE FANG+ index of mega tech stocks rose 0.9% for a fourth consecutive daily rise, bringing its year-to-date gains to 72%. One major headwind, particularly for Asian assets, could be the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, although that for now at least is being mitigated by the dollar’s slide to a three week low.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Amit Dave, China’s, Jerome Powell’s, ’ Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, Federal, Nasdaq, Traders, NYSE, Japan’s Nikkei, Treasury Locations: Ahmedabad, India, U.S, South Korea, Asia, Japan, New Zealand

June 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This could be a precursor to lower benchmark interest rates in the coming weeks - yuan traders certainly seem to think so. Traders are putting a 95% probability on the Fed standing pat on Wednesday, a consensus so strong the Fed will almost certainly respect. The NYSE FANG+ index of mega tech stocks rose 0.9% for a fourth consecutive daily rise, bringing its year-to-date gains to 72%. One major headwind, particularly for Asian assets, could be the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, although that for now at least is being mitigated by the dollar's slide to a three week low.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, China's, Jerome Powell's, Jamie McGEever Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Traders, NYSE, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, South Korea, Asia, Japan, India, New Zealand

Any optimism could be punctured, however, by inflation data from China. April's CPI report showed inflation virtually evaporated, highlighting Beijing's challenge to stimulate enough economic activity and growth to kill the threat of deflation. The weak jobless claims figures torpedoed the dollar more broadly, sank Treasury yields, and cooled Fed rate hike expectations. Remarkably, the main measure of U.S. stock market volatility is at a pre-pandemic low, and implied global FX volatility is its lowest in over a year too. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China CPI inflation (May)- China PPI inflation (May)- South Korea current account (April)By Jamie McGeever; editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Nasdaq, Treasury, Wall, China PPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, China, Japan, South Korea

☆ Morning Bid: O Canada! Markets wary of Fed hawkish surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeAnother day, another surprise hike. Broader consensus is that the Fed will do at least one more hike. The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of the Fed hiking by 25 bps next week is 36%, it was 22% a day earlier. With a light data calendar and futures pointing to a mixed open in Europe, markets could drift on Thursday. Economists expect the Federal Reserve to pause on its tightening cycle on its June 13-14 meeting as price pressures soften and as its key rate rises above inflation for the first time since mid-2020.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Ryan Cohen, Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, Gary Gensler, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Ankur, Reserve Bank, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, Europe, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy markets back on central bank watch
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Pedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, February 10, 2017. Throwing markets a slight curveball on Tuesday, Australia's central bank raised rates, dashing expectations that they'd stand pat and sending the Aussie dollar higher. For the U.S. rates outlook, CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed standing pat at the June 13-14 meeting is now at 82%. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong-listed China property stocks surged on hopes that Beijing would roll out supportive measures soon to bolster the embattled sector. The dollar remained on the backfoot after U.S. service sector activity unexpectedly softened, setting the stage for a mixed European open.

Persons: Steven Saphore, Ankur Banerjee, Christine Lagarde, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Tim Cook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Ankur, Federal Reserve, ECB, Apple, Meta, Hollywood, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Australia's, Asia, Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Japan, U.S, Netherlands, Germany, Singapore

Regional and global markets on Friday chalked up solid gains and volatility measures slumped after the release of forecast-smashing U.S. jobs figures. It looks like the 'sell in May and go away' maxim won't apply this year - investors are bullish and they are buying. Looking ahead, investors in Asia have plenty of economic events and monetary policy decisions to get their teeth into this week. Inflation data from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and China will be released, starting with Indonesia on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect annual CPI inflation eased in May to a one-year low of 4.22% from 4.33% in April.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Nikkei, Manufacturing, U.S . State Department, Indonesia, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of, Indonesia CPI, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan, China, India, Australia, Korea's, Beijing, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Reserve Bank of India, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Markets feel Friday cheer as signs point to Fed pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Treasury Department had warned it would be unable to pay all its bills on June 5 if Congress failed to act. Markets though seemed to have moved on to focus on what the Fed will do in two weeks as U.S. economic data bolstered the case for the Fed to stand pat. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), which has been languishing near two-month lows, should get a lift. In the corporate world, Goldman Sachs plans to cut more jobs, the bank's president said, as a difficult economic environment weighs on dealmaking. In January, it let go about 3,200 employees, its biggest head count reduction since the 2008 financial crisis.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Joe Biden, Patrick Harker, Labor Department's, Goldman Sachs, Ella Irwin, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Ankur, Reserve, U.S, Senate, Treasury Department, Fed, Philadelphia Federal, Nikkei, Labor, Twitter, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Asia, Europe, U.S, Japan, Singapore

Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. Despite outflows in February, April and May, foreigners' net purchases of mainland shares still stood at $25.05 billion for the first five months of this year, compared with net buying of about $6.36 billion worth over the whole of 2022. "Foreigners seem to have been selling because of the underwhelming near-term economic data points and, perhaps, because of the opportunities available to investors with a broader (pan-Asia or global) mandate," Pershad said. "We presume other investors have re-allocated some capital from China to those markets (and others) this year." Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Pruksa Iamthongthong, Refinitiv, Alexander Davey, Vikas Pershad, Pershad, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Stock Connect, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, PMI, Morningstar, Allianz All China Equity WT, HK, HSBC Asset Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, Morningstar ,, Taiwan, Shanghai, Asia, Bengaluru

☆ Asia stocks slump to monthly loss as China data disappoints
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.

Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States

If the PMI data on Thursday from Japan, Australia, India, South Korea and others are as gloomy as China's official PMI figures were on Wednesday, markets are in for a torrid start to the new month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI report on Thursday is also expected to show manufacturing activity shrank in May, but at the same pace as April. Barring a huge upside surprise, China's economy appears to be sputtering and the pressure on local assets is growing. Dovish remarks from Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker on Wednesday helped lower U.S. bond yields and implied rate expectations. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Elon Musk, Brent, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker Organizations: PMI, Twitter, Philadelphia Fed, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, Australia, India, South Korea, China, Shanghai, prelim

☆ Hong Kong stocks enter bear market territory as China reopening optimism continues to fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Zhang Wei | China News Service | Getty ImagesStock Chart Icon Stock chart iconThe Hang Seng Tech index has already fallen by more than 25% from its January peak. That's a stark contrast to the reopening optimism that had once driven Asia-Pacific's benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific index to a bull market. watch nowMorgan Stanley analysts said in a May 17 report that a weak reading in that manufacturing measure "has been a solid precursor to policy easing." "If growth does not accelerate sufficiently to narrow the output gap, social stability risk may rise and eventually trigger more meaningful stimulus," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the note. The index for services activity remained in expansionary territory at 54.5, but marked a second-straight month of decline.

Persons: Zhang Wei, Morgan Stanley Organizations: China News Service, Getty, Hang, Seng China Enterprises, Analysts, China, CNBC, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Hong, Wan Chai district, Asia, Hong Kong

May 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The onshore yuan traded weaker than 7.00 per dollar for the eighth straight day, as markets position for another hike in U.S. interest rates and potential policy easing from Beijing. The dollar nudged 141 yen before closing slightly lower on the day, with traders' hawkish Fed forecasts relative to the Bank of Japan's policy outlook again keeping dollar bulls on the front foot. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures pointed to gains on Wall Street of up to 0.5% on Tuesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Are we there yet? Market holds breath for debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeNervousness in the market over the looming U.S. debt ceiling deadline prevailed through the Asian hours and will remain the main focus for investors as Europe wakes up. McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement. But he said, "It is possible to get a deal by the end of the week. European markets are set for a lower open, with traders waiting for April inflation data for the eurozone. Japan's economy emerged from recession and grew faster than expected in the first quarter as a post-pandemic consumption rebound offset global headwind.

☆ Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.

☆ While Asia markets may cheer a Fed pause, watchers are split on growth prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ping Shu | Moment | Getty ImagesWhile a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle would lead to stronger Asian currencies, the region's recent earnings and disappointing Chinese economic data leave watchers split on the growth outlook. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconA Fed pause could boost U.S. stocks, but its effect on regional growth in Asia may not be as straightforward. Nomura's equity strategists kept their views for Asia-Pacific stocks unchanged despite the likelihood of a potential Fed pause, maintaining its year-end target for MSCI Asia ex-Japan. "Nonetheless, in our base case, we do not expect a meaningful decline in Asian stocks. "Asian investors' big worry surrounds China," he said, pointing to the "unsustainability of consumption rebound, especially against the backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment levels."

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