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☆ Investors starting to chase this stock market rally too much, says RBC's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors starting to chase this stock market rally too much, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Calvasina's view towards equity markets, the outlook for the Federal Reserve, and the firm's updated earnings model.

Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve

☆ Premarket stocks: Markets and consumers are in an upbeat mood. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Stocks and consumer sentiment are rising in tandem after slumping last year, in another sign of growing optimism that the economy could dodge a recession. Consumer sentiment tracked by the University of Michigan jumped 13% in July, notching its second consecutive month of improvement. That comes after stocks and consumer sentiment tumbled in 2022 as sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes spurred fears that the US economy would tip into a recession. “Consumer sentiment reached levels consistent with the lows of some past recessions last summer,” wrote Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Still, consumer sentiment could decline if more people lose their jobs, paychecks and spending power.

Persons: CNN —, ”, Lori Calvasina, Ed Moya, Moya, Jon Ekoniak, Pete Muntean, Vanessa Yurkevich, Robert Travis, “, ” Read, Michelle Toh, Kan, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, University of Michigan, RBC Capital Markets, OANDA, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bordeaux Wealth Advisors, UPS, Teamsters, United Parcel Service, Independent Pilots Association, Brotherhood of Teamsters, South, Starbucks Asia Locations: That’s, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, South Korean, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines

☆ A breakdown of the changes to the Nasdaq-100 and what it means for mega-cap tech stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The biggest stocks in the market will soon get taken down a peg or two, at least on paper. The seven largest stocks in the Nasdaq-100 will be diluted down to 44% of the index from the current 56%. The changes mean the Invesco QQQ Trust and other funds that closely follow the index will need to sell some of the biggest stocks in the market this week. "Nasdaq slashed the NDX weight of AAPL from 20% to 12%, but this change had no clear negative effect on the stock's performance. The rebalance comes as the increased concentration of large-cap tech stocks has raised concerns the current market rally is unsustainable.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Lori Calvasina, Bram Kaplan, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with RBC Capital Market's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with RBC Capital Market's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Calvasina's calculus for the second half of the year, how a sentiment model could change RBC's outlook, and more.

Persons: Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina Organizations: RBC Capital, RBC Capital Markets

☆ S&P could sink to 4,250 by year end as sentiment becomes 'worrisome,' says RBC's Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P could sink to 4,250 by year end as sentiment becomes 'worrisome,' says RBC's CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Calvasina's calculus for the second half of the year, how a sentiment model could change RBC's outlook, and more.

Persons: RBC's Calvasina Lori Calvasina Organizations: RBC Capital Markets

☆ Stock market heads into the second half with near 15% total return so far in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 had just sustained its worst calendar-year loss in half a generation. Textbook consolidation Last week's modest 1.4% decline in the S & P 500 did little to alter either the favorable underlying market trend or the notion that more consolidation might be in store. The median year-end S & P 500 target among Street strategists is 4250, 100 points below Friday's close, and the most-bullish forecast is for about a 5% further gain. And just as the market's performance has been skewed toward these hit hyper-cap tech stocks, so is the S & P 500's valuation. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year Big picture: The market this year has chewed through plenty of perfectly valid excuses to falter without doing so.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jeremy Schwartz, Lori Calvasina, we'll Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Ned Davis Research, New, Nvidia, General Motors, Whirlpool, RBC Capital Locations: DC

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with RBC's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss RBC's decision to upgrade the company's earnings outlook, other investor's caution towards the earnings outlook and much more.

Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina Organizations: RBC Capital Markets

☆ Halfway through 2023 Wall Street still can't agree on the earnings outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S

☆ Small caps are benefitting from the value trade catchup, says RBC's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps are benefitting from the value trade catchup, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital head of U.S. equity strategy, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss where the market is heading and the likelihood of a recession.

Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina Organizations: RBC Capital

☆ RBC raises year-end stock market forecast, sees buying opportunity in small caps
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

RBC Capital lifted its year-end target for the S & P 500 as the tech-led market rally continued, seeing double-digit gains for 2023. The new target is only about 1% higher than the S & P 500's Friday close of 4,205.45 but it would represent a 10% gain for the year. The firm said it's worth looking at cheap small caps right now. "Small Caps are at an attractive entry point for patient investors." Additionally, Calvasina said periods of economic stress are usually good buying opportunities for small caps as the cohort tends to underperform heading into a recession and starts to outperform midway through a downturn.

☆ The stunning tech rally that boosted Meta and Nvidia by over 100% will fizzle out soon, top RBC strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tech stocks' stunning run could soon come to an end, according to top RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina. "The tech trade in particular feels like it's starting to run out of catalysts," she told Bloomberg. The sector has soared in 2023, with Meta and Nvidia already seeing their share prices double. Tech stocks have started 2023 with a breakneck rally, benefiting from the surge in demand for ChatGPT and other AI tech as well as traders' expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon end its interest-rate hiking campaign. Read more: Facebook parent Meta and Nvidia have both seen their stock prices double within the first 5 months of 2023

☆ Individual investors are so bearish it’s a contrarian buy signal that should mean a 15% gain, RBC says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Sentiment among retail investors has been almost as bad as it was during the Great Financial Crisis, and that has triggered a reliable contrarian buy signal that points to a double-digit rally ahead, according to RBC. The weekly American Association of Individual Investor survey, which polled individual investors of their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months, has indicated a level of bearishness that's close to the level during 2008, RBC said. "Depressed levels of retail investor sentiment are sending a strong buy signal for US equities again," Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, said in a note. Retail investors have been dumping equities in the face of raging recession fears that have been stoked by rate hikes and a banking crisis. The selling among individual investors reached a new milestone as of late.

☆ Market may ignore recession for first time since 1945, RBC's top strategist Lori Calvasina finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Natalie Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In a research note out this week, Calvasina tackled the S&P 500's performance during recessions going back to 1937. She found the 1945 recession was the only one with no market pullback. According to RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina, stocks may be ignoring all signs of a recession. "[This] idea of a manufactured recession that we were all talking about last year, you actually had it back then." "I actually think that we priced in a recession back at the October lows, but I think people are tired of hearing that," noted Calvasina.

☆ Here's what even a 'mild' recession would look like for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That is hardly an "earnings recession." More accurately: analysts are predicting a mild "earnings recession" for the first half of the year, but then a rebound in the second half. The strategists have good reason to be nervous Strategists are nervous because the market is priced for a perfect landing. It is not even priced for a "mild" recession. The difference between a "mild" recession and a "deep" recession on stocks is enormous: a "typical" recession will produce an earnings decline of 10%-20%, and a multiple compression of 20%-25%.

☆ Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it. That is a good thing: sentiment indicators are mostly useful at extremes, and when sentiment gets this pessimistic it is usually associated with at least short-term market bottoms. This morning, for example, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets also pointed out that many sentiment indicators were at extremes. In theory, this is good news: she notes that when sentiment gets this bad, the S & P 500 is up 15% on average over the next 12 months. Other sentiment indicators are also at extremes.

☆ Here's why S&P has been resilient this week: RBC Capital Markets Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why S&P has been resilient this week: RBC Capital Markets Lori CalvasinaAdam Parker, Trivariate Research CEO, and Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss their thoughts on crude prices, the tech industry, and more.

☆ Stocks are bouncing but market will soon face next big hurdle
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Strategists see the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday as the next big hurdle for markets, barring any other unexpected developments. Traders in the futures market upped their bets Tuesday to a more than 70% chance that the Fed raises interest rates by a quarter point on March 22. Regional bank stocks rose sharply Tuesday after being crushed on fears there could be more bank failures, following the rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The central bank will also release forecasts after that meeting, including new outlooks for interest rates and inflation. "Something pretty darn significant just broke as a result of higher rates," said Lori Calvasina, head U.S. equity strategist at RBC.

☆ How Powell's testimony could impact the markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow Powell's testimony could impact the marketsRBC's Lori Calvasina looks at how Powell's congressional testimony could impact the markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Bonawyn Eison and Steve Grasso.

☆ The S&P 500 could jump more than 12% if lower inflation allows the Fed to ease, stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina maintained a base-case scenario for the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,100. But she told Bloomberg TV that the broad market index could reach 4,500, representing upside of more than 12%. But inflation would have to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Other analysts have warned investors to prepare for a steep stock market downturn on expectations the Federal Reserve is set to lift rates even higher than expected, not ease them. Fundstrat's Tom Lee published a note on Wednesday, saying that most of the Fed's previous tightening cycles coincided with stock market advances.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with RBC's Lori Calvasina, Veritas’ Greg Branch and Crossmark’s Victoria Fernandez
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with RBC's Lori Calvasina, Veritas’ Greg Branch and Crossmark’s Victoria FernandezRBC's Lori Calvasina, Veritas’ Greg Branch and Crossmark’s Victoria Fernandez join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss their market view and how investors should position themselves.

☆ The debt ceiling could be a problem this summer, says RBC Capital's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe debt ceiling could be a problem this summer, says RBC Capital's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss her neutral view on the market and how investors should position themselves heading into the summer.

☆ The bears have overstayed their welcome, says RBC's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bears have overstayed their welcome, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss market volatility today after Powell's remarks in Washington.

REUTERS/Charles PlatiauCHICAGO/DETROIT, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The companies that produce goods at the heart of the U.S. consumer economy - SUVs, washing machines, heavy equipment and hamburgers - kept rolling along at the end of 2022. Bellwethers including McDonald's (MCD.N), General Motors, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), appliance maker Whirlpool (WHR.N) and delivery giant United Parcel Service (UPS.N), posted results that exceeded estimates. That's a good sign for the broader economy, according to Lori Calvasina, equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets. The economy's performance may depend on whether price pressures that have afflicted consumer and business spending start to wane. "As we go into 2023, there is going to continue to be inflation," said Christopher Kempczinski, McDonald's CEO, on the company's earnings call Tuesday.

☆ 2023 earnings downgrades are at fastest pace since 2010: RBC’s Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2023 earnings downgrades are at fastest pace since 2010: RBC’s Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins CNBC"s "Fast Money" to discuss the state of markets and the recent rally.

☆ Company outlooks so far paint a dreary 2023 earnings picture, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The early 2023 corporate earnings outlooks that companies are issuing alongside actual fourth-quarter results are deteriorating, Bank of America equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a report Sunday. As a result, S & P 500 earnings estimates for 2023 have already fallen 1% — but are 10% down from where they were at the peak in June 2022. "Early signs are troubling," with an in-house "S & P guidance ratio" falling into the 10th percentile, signaling that "corporate misery [is] rising." What's worse, analysts' estimates had already fallen 7% coming into the reporting period, Subramanian said. She noted the same disconcerting early earnings trend, headlining a report out on Monday with, "EPS Backdrop Continues To Soften."

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