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FILE PHOTO: Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. It also left unchanged an allowance band of 50 basis point set either side of the yield target, as well as a new hard cap of 1.0% adopted in July. A Reuters poll for September showed most economists predicting an end to negative interest rates in 2024. But some analysts see the yen, rather than wage growth or inflation, as the primary trigger for BOJ action. Growing prospects of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates have pushed the yen down near the 150-per-dollar level, seen as Tokyo’s line-in-the-sand for possible currency intervention.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda’s, Ueda, Haruhiko Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, Japan, , U.S
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying intervention by Japan "depends on the details" of the situation. While the yen is still well off that low, many market players see 150 as Tokyo's line-in-the-sand which, if breached, could trigger another round of intervention. While a weak yen gives Japanese exporters' profits a boost, it hurts households and retailers by boosting the cost of importing raw material and fuel. Reporting by David Lawder in Washington; Writing by Leika Kihara in Tokyo; Editing by Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Florence Lo, Janet Yellen, Yellen, David Lawder, Leika Kihara, Stephen Coates Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, . Treasury, Washington, Thomson Locations: Japan, United States, New York, Asia, Washington, Tokyo
A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. Many central bank policymakers prefer to hold fire until there is more clarity on whether Japan's fragile economy can weather the hit from slowing U.S. and Chinese demand, they say. "Uncertainty over the global outlook is very high, posing a huge risk to Japan's economy," one of the sources said. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain its short-term interest rate target of -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. It is also seen leaving unchanged guidance pledging to keep intact its bond yield control policy until inflation stably hits the bank's 2% target, the sources said.
Persons: Issei Kato, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Bank of Japan, United States
TOKYO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday his new cabinet will take steps so that wage growth consistently exceeds the rate of inflation "by several percentage points". "We'll ensure Japan is fully out of deflation," Kishida told a news conference after reshuffling his cabinet. Kishida also said the government and his ruling coalition would aim to compile a "bold" economic package next month to cushion the blow on households from rising living costs. He declined to offer details on how to fund the spending, saying only that the government will consider compiling an extra budget "at an appropriate time". Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; editing by Kevin LiffeyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Fumio Kishida, Kishida, reshuffling, Leika Kihara, Kevin Liffey Organizations: Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
What will BOJ's policy normalisation path look like?
  + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a group interview with media in Tokyo, Japan, May 25, 2023. But his hawkish remarks have pushed up the 10-year JGB yield to a near decade-high of 0.715% on Tuesday. It also likely sees 0.8% as a threshold it wants to defend to avoid the 10-year yield from reaching 1%. That could mean the BOJ will retain the yield cap as a precaution when it raises short-term rates, some analysts say. There are no scheduled public appearances of BOJ executives until governor Ueda's regular news conference, to be held after the BOJ's next two-day policy meeting ending on Sept. 22.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda's, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Rengo, NEXT, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Another board member, Junko Nakagawa, laid out the conditions for ending negative rates, notably a continued improvement in household confidence. "When we see many people share prospects that wages will keep rising, we may be able to exit (negative rates)." Less than half expect negative rates to end in 2024. There seems to be no consensus within the BOJ board, however, on when or how the bank would dismantle Kuroda's complex policy framework. Ueda said the BOJ could end negative rates if it believed that inflation would sustainably hold above the target.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, Ueda, Tamura, Haruhiko Kuroda, Naoki Tamura, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hajime Takata, Junko Nakagawa, Shinichi Uchida, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Daiwa Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S
The central bank could have enough data by year-end to determine whether it can end negative rates, Ueda told the paper in an interview on Wednesday. "If we judge that Japan can achieve its inflation target even after ending negative rates, we'll do so," he added. The BOJ currently guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% under its negative rate policy. Ueda repeated the stance in the interview, saying the BOJ will "patiently" maintain ultra-loose policy for the time being. Under a negative rate policy, banks and other financial institutions are required to pay interest for parking excess cash -- beyond what authorities say they must keep on hand for safety reasons -- with the central bank.
Persons: Florence Lo, BOJ, Ueda BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, we're, Leika, Jonathan Oatis, Josie Kao, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Yomiuri, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
Real wages adjusted for inflation fell in July for a 16th straight month in a sign households continued to feel the pinch from rising prices, separate data showed, boding ill for consumption. Exports remained solid in April-June with net external demand contributing 1.8% points to GDP growth, unchanged from the preliminary reading. But shipments to China slumped 13.4% in July to mark the 8th straight month of falls. Japan's economy has seen a delayed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic this year, as rising living costs faltering global demand cloud the outlook. Given such uncertainties, Bank of Japan policymakers have stressed their resolve to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until the recent cost-driven inflation turns into price rises driven by domestic demand and higher wage growth.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Takeshi Minami, Yoshifumi Takemoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Food, REUTERS, Norinchukin Research, Private, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Soma, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, TOKYO, China, Norinchukin
Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded an annualised 4.8% in April-June, against a preliminary estimate of 6.0% growth. The revised reading compared with a median market forecast for a 0.7% decline. Private consumption, which makes up more than half of the economy, fell 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period, compared with a preliminary 0.5% decline. Exports remained solid for now with net external demand contributing 1.8% points to GDP growth, unchanged from the preliminary reading. Japan's economy has seen a delayed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic's scars this year, as rising living costs faltering global demand cloud the outlook.
Persons: Yoshifumi Takemoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
As a result, it was hard to say when inflation could hit the bank's 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, she said. "But we're not at a stage where we can judge that Japan has achieved our price target in a stable, sustainable fashion." The BOJ has defined sustainable inflation as price rises driven not by rising raw material costs, but strong domestic demand accompanied by continued wage increases. But she laid out in detail the conditions for ending negative rates. "When we see many people share prospects that wages will keep rising, we may be able to exit (negative rates)," she added.
Persons: Androniki, Nakagawa, Bank of Japan policymaker Junko Nakagawa, Haruhiko Kuroda, We're, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, KOCHI, Kochi
An office employee walks in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. An increasing number of Japanese companies were raising prices and wages, Nakagawa said, adding that there was a chance inflation could accelerate more than initially expected. But there was also a risk inflation could slow once the pass-through of higher costs moderate, she said. "But we're not at a stage where we can judge that Japan has achieved our price target in a stable, sustainable fashion." Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Tom Hogue and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Androniki, Bank of Japan policymaker Junko Nakagawa, Nakagawa, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Rights KOCHI, Kochi
TOKYO (Reuters) - Policymakers in Tokyo believe China’s deepening economic woes could hit Japan’s fragile recovery, especially if Beijing fails to shore up demand with meaningful stimulus, potentially delaying an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. China is Japan’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20% of its exports, having replaced the United States in 2020. “Exports to China had already been weak and headwinds to inbound tourism are clearly bad for Japan’s economy,” said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. Firms also promised wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. The darkening outlook for Japan’s recovery may push back the timing of a BOJ policy shift.
Persons: Marko Djurica, Kazuo Ueda’s, , Hiroyuki Ogawa, Ogawa, Takeshi Niinami, Toru Suehiro, Ueda, Toyoaki Nakamura, , Seisaku Kameda Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan’s, Reuters, Japan, Komatsu Ltd, Komatsu, Suntory Holdings, Daiwa Securities, Japan’s Sompo Holdings Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, Beijing, Japan, United States, China
Policymaker Takata stressed the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being, as slowing global growth was heightening uncertainty on whether the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% inflation target was sustainably achievable. In an earlier speech, he said he believe Japan's economy was "finally seeing early signs" of achieving the 2% target. Two other BOJ board members earlier gave diverging views on how soon the central bank should consider scaling back its radical stimulus. Japan's core inflation hit 3.1% in July, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for the 16th straight month. BOJ officials have said the central bank must keep interest rates ultra-low until robust domestic demand and sustained wage growth replace rising import costs as key drivers of inflation.
Persons: Androniki, Takata, Hajime Takata, Policymaker Takata, Haruhiko Kuroda, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Takahiko Wada, Tom Hogue, Lincoln, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, CHINA IMPACT, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO, China, CHINA
An office employee walks in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. Takata stressed the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being, as slowing global growth heightens uncertainty on whether Japan can sustainably achieve the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% inflation target. "Personally, I believe Japan's economy is finally seeing early signs of achieving the BOJ's 2% inflation target," Takata said in a speech. The remarks follow those of two other BOJ board members, who gave diverging views on how soon the central bank should consider scaling back its radical stimulus. BOJ officials have said the central bank must keep interest rates ultra-low until robust domestic demand and sustained wage growth replace rising import costs as key drivers of inflation.
Persons: Androniki, Takata, Hajime Takata, Haruhiko Kuroda, Leika Kihara, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, of Japan's, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO, Lincoln
In a sign of growing pessimism over China, the government also said its monthly economic report for August that "concern over China's outlook" was among risks to Japan's recovery. "Exports to China had already been weak and headwinds to inbound tourism are clearly bad for Japan's economy," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. "All in all, it's hard to justify tightening monetary policy any time soon." Firms also promised wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. The darkening outlook for Japan's recovery may push back the timing of a BOJ policy shift.
Persons: Marko Djurica, Kazuo Ueda's, Hiroyuki Ogawa, Ogawa, Takeshi Niinami, Toru Suehiro, Ueda, Toyoaki Nakamura, Seisaku Kameda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, Reuters, Japan, Komatsu Ltd, Komatsu, Suntory Holdings, Daiwa Securities, Japan's Sompo Holdings, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, TOKYO, Beijing, United States
While the rebound in China's factory conditions say be a sign official efforts to revive growth is starting to have some effect, manufacturing activity in most of Asia remained stagnant in August. "It's unlikely we'll see a sharp, quick rebound in China's economy. Asia has been among the few bright spots in the global economy, though persistent weakness in China cloud the outlook. It expects China's economy to expand 5.2% this year after a 3.0% increase in 2022. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines last month, with Indonesia the outlier with a modest expansion, surveys showed.
Persons: Siyi Liu, Toru Nishihama, Leika, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, P Global, Dai, Research, International Monetary Fund, Jibun Bank, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, Japan, Korea, TOKYO, Asia, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia
A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. The central bank would take time to determine whether it can raise interest rates as it waits for evidence that a sustained economic recovery will eradicate Japan's deflationary mindset, he said. "The key is for the economy to keep recovering," Nakamura told a news conference, when asked about the conditions for ending negative interest rates. We therefore need more time before shifting to monetary tightening," he said, adding the key was to determine whether companies' growth expectations were heightening. Markets are divided on whether the BOJ could remove the yield cap before raising short-term rates, ditch both simultaneously, or keep the yield cap when ending negative rates as a precaution against an abrupt rise in long-term yields.
Persons: Issei Kato, Nakamura, Toyoaki Nakamura, Japan's, we're, Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Christian Schmollinger, Navaratnam, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hitachi Ltd, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, GIFU, Gifu
Tightening monetary policy before rising prices are accompanied by higher wages would hurt domestic demand and corporate profits, Nakamura said. We therefore need more time before shifting to monetary tightening," Nakamura said in a speech to business leaders in the city of Gifu in central Japan. "Close scrutiny of (economic) conditions and cautious decision-making are required when modifying monetary policy," he said, warning against shifting policy too hastily. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the BOJ must maintain ultra-low rates until there is more evidence that Japan's inflation can sustainably hit 2% backed by solid consumption and wage growth. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Issei Kato, Nakamura, Toyoaki Nakamura, Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nakamura Overseas, Hitachi Ltd, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Gifu
TOKYO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - A row with China over Tokyo's decision to release treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant could shave 0.2% off Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP), estimates by Daiwa Institute of Research showed on Thursday. Japan started releasing treated radioactive water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean last Thursday, prompting China, Japan's biggest trade partner, to impose a blanket ban on Japanese seafood products. A view of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after it started releasing treated radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean, seen from the nearby Ukedo fishing port in Namie town, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, Aug. 25, 2023. REUTERS/Tom Bateman/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsIf the row escalates and leads to a 20% drop in goods exports to China, Japan's GDP could shrink by around 6.1 trillion yen, or 1.1%, according to the estimates. ($1 = 145.8900 yen)Reporting by Leika Kihara Editing by Peter GraffOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tom Bateman, Leika, Peter Graff Organizations: Daiwa Institute of Research, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Fukushima, Fukushima Prefecture
The remarks are the strongest signal to date by a Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker that rising inflation and wages could prod the bank to take bolder steps towards phasing out its radical stimulus. "About a decade has passed since the BOJ began efforts to sustainably and stably achieve its 2% inflation target. For now, the BOJ must sustain monetary easing to scrutinise wage and price developments, said the former commercial banker. "Abandoning negative rates will obviously be among options" if the BOJ were to normalise policy, he said. "Even if the BOJ were to end negative rates, it won't be scaling back monetary easing as long as it can keep interest rates low."
Persons: Issei Kato, Tamura BOJ, KUSHIRO, Naoki Tamura, Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Shinichi Uchida, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan may be at an inflection point in its 25-year battle with deflation as price and wage rises show signs of broadening, the government said on Tuesday, signalling its conviction the economy was nearing an end to prolonged stagnation. “Japan has seen price and wage rises broaden since the spring of 2022. Such changes suggest the economy is reaching a turning point in its 25-year battle with deflation,” the government said in its annual economic white paper. Companies this year offered their highest pay in three decades, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Since declaring Japan in a state of deflation in 2001, the government has made ending price falls among its top policy priorities.
Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Companies Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Tokyo
REUTERS/Yuya Shino Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Japan may be at an inflection point in its 25-year battle with deflation as price and wage rises show signs of broadening, the government said on Tuesday, signalling its conviction the economy was nearing an end to prolonged stagnation. "Japan has seen price and wage rises broaden since the spring of 2022. Such changes suggest the economy is reaching a turning point in its 25-year battle with deflation," the government said in its annual economic white paper. Companies this year offered their highest pay in three decades, heightening the case for a retreat from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Since declaring Japan in a state of deflation in 2001, the government has made ending price falls among its top policy priorities.
Persons: Yuya, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Companies, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
BOJ's Ueda: Underlying inflation still a bit below target
  + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a group interview with media in Tokyo, Japan, May 25, 2023. "We think that underlying inflation is still a bit below our target," Ueda said. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.1% in July, staying above the central bank's 2% inflation target for the 16th straight month, as companies continued to pass on higher costs to households. Nevertheless, inflation "is expected to decline" from here, he said, with the underlying trend still less than the target. It also sets an allowance band of 50 basis point around the 10-year yield target.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, JACKSON, Ueda, Howard Schneider, Leika Kihara, Andrea Ricci, Diane Craft Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, Reserve, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, , Wyoming
A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. Based on the government's consumer price data, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases several measurements of underlying inflation that look at the distribution of price changes. The indices are closely watched by the BOJ for clues on whether price rises are driven by one-off factors like fuel, or broadening enough to sustainably hit its 2% inflation target. The ratio of items that saw prices rise year-on-year hit a record 85.6% in July. Japan's annual core consumer inflation hit 3.1% in July, slowing from 3.3% in June due to sliding utility bills but staying above the BOJ's target for the 16th straight month.
Persons: Issei Kato, Naoya Hasegawa, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Okasan Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
The dollar stood at 146.125 yen on Tuesday, staying near a nine-month high of 146.565 hit last Thursday. But anxiety over the weak yen appears less than a year ago as households are becoming accustomed to rising prices, he said. The benefits of a weak yen are also becoming clearer due to Japan's re-opening of borders, which is reviving inbound tourism and domestic service-sector firms, he added. "Public discontent over the weak yen isn't escalating to a scale seen last year," he said. But authorities could intervene if the yen speeds up its pace of declines and breaches 150 to the dollar, he said.
Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Takeuchi, Kishida, Fumio Kishida, Atsushi Takeuchi, Japan's, Leika Kihara, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, FX, Reuters, Ricoh Institute of Sustainability, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO, Japan
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