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☆ Morning Bid: Market to ChatGPT: what's Powell gotta say?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] ChatGPT logo and rising stock graph are seen in this illustration taken, February 3, 2023. Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) unveiled a rival to super popular ChatGPT, saying it will launch a chatbot service named 'Bard'. Asian shares held their ground while the rally in the U.S. dollar took a breather on Tuesday. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, a deadly earthquake killed more than 3,700 people across a swathe of Turkey and northwest Syria, sending Turkey's lira to a record low. Before Powell takes centre stage and hogs the limelight, Bank of England's Huw Pill is also due to speak and his comments on monetary policy will likely move markets.

☆ Take Five: The Bottom Line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia and India's central banks are navigating the shifting sands of data and markets are digesting what the world's top central banks have to offer. The question is what impact this will have on bonds and stocks markets after a stellar January? Reuters Graphics4/ RUN RALLY, RUNIt was a stellar start to 2023 for markets - stocks and government bonds enjoyed one of the best Januaries on record, fuelled by optimism that the worst is over. That's not good for a central bank, nor is the idea that their communication is ineffective. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

This would take the rate the ECB pays on bank deposits to the highest level since November 2008, after a steady climb from a record low of -0.5% in July. Reuters GraphicsThe ECB said in December that rates would be increased "at a steady pace" until it is happy inflation is heading back down to its 2% target. BNP Paribas also thought the ECB might take out the reference to a "steady pace" of rate hikes or offset it so that a 50-basis-point increase would be "not predetermined (but) still a possible outcome". And an ECB survey showed banks were tightening access to credit by the most since the 2011 debt crisis - usually the harbinger of lower growth and slowing inflation. To some observers, this meant the ECB would be wise not to commit to any future policy move.

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Monday, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signalling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.1 % at $1.0865. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. "Really what's driving things is central bank policy divergence," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. So when you weigh the outlook for central bank policy, it depicts the dollar at a disadvantage, given market bets on the Fed moving more slowly than its counterparts abroad," Manimbo said.

LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - European stock indexes edged higher on Monday, while Wall Street futures struggled to make gains as investors weighed up recession fears with hopes that inflation could be past its peak. Wall Street rallied at the end of last week, after a jump in Netflix and Alphabet shares. The U.S. dollar index was steady at 101.96 . The dollar edged higher against the yen, up 0.5% at 130.165 , having fluctuated last week after the Bank of Japan defied market pressure to ease its ultra-loose monetary policy. Oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude up 0.9% and U.S. crude up 0.8% .

The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. The single currency was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council members Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir, who both advocated for two more 50 basis point hikes at meetings in February and March. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing. The pound rose as high as $1.24475 , its highest in seven months, before turning 0.3% lower to $1.2355.

The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. It was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured a hike of 50 basis points in March and an eventual top of 3.25% from the current rate of 2%. "Layered on top of that, it looks as if the ECB are going to carry on hiking interest rates fairly aggressively," Foley added. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing.

☆ Tech lifts European shares despite hawkish ECB signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Tech follows U.S. peers higherHawkish ECB boosts euro, banksSymrise slides on EBITDA missJan 23 (Reuters) - European stocks edged higher on Monday, lifted by technology and mining shares, as expectations of a mild recession in the euro zone offset hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials that sent the euro to a nine-month high. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.2% after posting its first weekly decline of the year on Friday. Tech stocks (.SX8P) jumped 1.4% after their Wall Street peers rallied on Friday following upbeat results from streaming giant Netflix Inc (NFLX.O). Investors will look for more clues on the central bank's tightening plans when ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks later in the day. Fourth-quarter earnings for STOXX 600 companies are forecast to have grown by 10.7% year-on-year, the slowest in two years, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.

☆ Euro clears 9-month peak as ECB hawks let fly
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro reached as far as $1.0903 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875 and opening the way to a spike top from last April at $1.0936. It was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured a hike of 50 basis points in March and an eventual top of 3.25%. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing. read moreAny hint the replacement is less dovish than current governor Haruhiko Kuroda could see the yen climb anew.

☆ Euro nears nine-month peak as ECB hawks let fly
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro crept ahead to $1.0870 and nearer its recent nine-month peak of $1.08875. It was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after. Much the same argument goes for sterling, with markets wagering the Bank of England will hike by half a point to 4.0% at its policy meeting next week. Analysts assume the BOJ will stand the line until at least the next policy meeting in March, though one hurdle will be the expected naming of a new BOJ governor in February. For now, the dollar was holding at 129.40 yen , following last week's wild gyrations between 127.22 and 131.58.

[1/3] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. The Dutch and Slovak central bank governors gave explicit support for a bigger move in March while ECB President Christine Lagarde also appeared to back such an increase. But it is not a reason to slow the tempo of raising interest rates," Kazimir said in a statement on Monday. "I am convinced that we need to deliver two more hikes by 50 basis points." Economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to deliver 50 basis point interest rate rises at each of its next two meetings.

Liquidity was thin overnight as markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. At 0947 GMT, the MSCI World Equity index was up 0.3% on the day, holding just below last week's highs (.MIWD00000PUS). Europe's STOXX 600 and London's FTSE 100 were both up 0.2% on the day (.STOXX), (.FTSE). "On the surface, it looks like inflation has been dealt with and the most likely path ahead is lower. Wall Street rallied at the end of the last week, after a jump in Netflix and Alphabet shares.

☆ Morning bid: Who let the hawks out?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It's a good opportunity for policy hawks at the European Central Bank to get their message across. The ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in February and March and will continue to increase rates in the months after, ECB governing council member Klaas Knot said at the weekend. ECB chief Christine Lagarde meanwhile has reiterated the central bank will keep raising rates at a brisk pace to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Euro at nine-month highs vs dollarThe Bank of Canada, meanwhile, is expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday. Trade in U.S. stock futures suggested a flat open for Wall Street , , although the signals from other major stock markets boded well for U.S. trading later on.

☆ ECB set to raise rates by 50 basis points in February and March, Knot says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

AMSTERDAM, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in both February and March and will continue to raise rates in the months after, ECB governing council member Klaas Knot said in an interview with Dutch broadcaster WNL on Sunday. "Expect us to raise rates by 0.5% in February and March and expect us to not be done by then and that more steps will follow in May and June," Knot said. "At some point, of course, the risks surrounding the inflation outlook will become more balanced," he said. "That would also be a time in which we could make a further step down from 50 to 25 basis points, for instance. Reporting by Bart Meijer and Federico Maccioni Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB set to raise rates by 0.5% in Feb and March, Knot says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) climbed 0.3% at 0936 GMT, boosted by gains in banks (.SX7P) and industrials (.SXNP). European shares were on track to snap a two-week winning streak, thanks to the worst single-day selloff so far this month on Thursday following disappointing earnings reports, weak U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from central bankers. Energy stocks (.SXEP) gained 0.8%, tracking firm crude prices on hopes of demand recovery in the world's second-biggest economy. "Europe has more exposure to China reopening and luxury is a big part of the European market," said Jamie Mills O'Brien, investment manager at Abrdn. "Some of the big players are pure China reopening bets."

☆ ECB's Holzmann expects at least two rate increases in H1 -newspaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

VIENNA, Jan 20 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann expects at least two interest-rate increases of 50 basis points each in the first half of this year, he said in an interview with Austrian newspaper Die Presse published on Friday. Holzmann said that while headline inflation has eased, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, had not. He said that as long as core inflation had not fallen significantly interest rates would have to keep rising. "Core inflation is currently at more than 5%, which is still two-and-a-half times our target," he said. Reporting by Francois Murphy; Additional reporting by Frank Siebelt in Frankfurt; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Klaas Knot, president of the Dutch central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Klaas Knot, president of the Dutch central bankKlaas Knot, president of De Nederlandsche Bank, discusses the outlook for the European Union's monetary policy.

☆ Davos 2023: Global bank chiefs get FBI cybersecurity update
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Global bank and exchange chiefs got insight on cybersecurity and resilience from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's director during a private session in Davos this week. The financial services executives also compared notes on economic risks, financial stability and sustainability. Klaas Knot, President of the Dutch central bank who chairs the Financial Stability Board, also spoke with the group. He discussed vulnerabilities in the financial system, including risks posed by so-called shadow banks, the sources said. For daily Davos updates in your inbox sign up for the Reuters Daily Briefing here.

☆ Rate hikes won't stop after a single increase of 50 basis points, ECB's Knot says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRate hikes won't stop after a single increase of 50 basis points, ECB's Knot saysKlaas Knot, president of De Nederlandsche Bank and European Central Bank board member, says "we have to do what we have to do."

☆ Investors underpricing ECB rate hikes, Knot says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"It will not stop after a single 50 basis point hike, that’s for sure," Knot told CNBC, adding that investors should take more seriously its policy guidance. "Most of the ground that we have to cover, we will cover at a constant pace of multiple 50 basis points hikes." "The sort of market developments that I've seen over the last two weeks or so, are not entirely welcome," Knot said after investors priced out some rate hikes. While a 50 basis point hike for February is fully priced in, markets are oscillating between 25 and 50 for March. Part of the change is related to more benign rate hike expectations from the U.S. Federal Reserve and an anticipation that the ECB would follow its U.S. counterpart if its slowed or stopped with rate hikes.

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was down 0.8% at 0929 GMT, and on track to snap a six-day winning streak. Energy stocks (.SXEP) fell 1.9%, tracking weakness in crude prices, after U.S. economic data stoked fears of recession in the world's largest economy. "Economic data remains noisy, making it hard to say for certain that the recent encouraging economic trends will continue," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot added to the chorus, saying markets may be underestimating planned rate hikes by the European Central Bank and investors should take more seriously its forecast to raise rates in multiples of 50 basis points. Investors are focussed on minutes from last month's European Central Bank meeting due later in the day, as well as an appearance from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

☆ European Central Bank member says will not stop at one single 50 basis point hike, 'that's for sure'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

DAVOS, Switzerland — The European Central Bank will not stop with one single 50 basis point hike at its next rate-setting meetings, one board member told CNBC Thursday. "It will not stop after a single 50 basis point hike, that's for sure," Klaas Knot, who serves as the governor of the Dutch central bank, said about the ECB's upcoming moves. The European Central Bank raised rates four times throughout 2022, bringing its deposit rate to 2%. The central bank in December said it would be increasing rates further in 2023 to address sky-high inflation. Recent data has shown a slowdown in headline inflation, even if it remains well above the ECB's 2% target.

☆ The Jan. 6-style attack on Brazil's capital came after Bolsonaro followed the Trump election playbook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( John Haltiwanger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The attack on Brazil's capital came after Bolsonaro closely followed Trump's election playbook. The attack in Brazil's capital came after Bolsonaro followed a near-identical playbook to that of former US President Donald Trump in the lead-up to the fatal January 6 insurrection in Washington, D.C. in 2021. Bolsonaro, like Trump, spread baseless claims of voter fraud ahead of Brazil's presidential election — sowing doubts about the integrity of the electoral process. And, much like Trump, Bolsonaro refused to concede after he was defeated and would go on to skip the inauguration of his successor. In the run-up to Brazil's election, pundits and experts warned that Bolsonaro's rhetoric was setting the stage for the South American country to see its own version of the January 6 riot.

☆ Old Nazi map sparks treasure hunt in the Netherlands
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/5] A general view of a street in the Dutch village of Ommeren, Netherlands January 6, 2023. REUTERS/Piroschka van de WouwOMMEREN, the Netherlands, Jan 6 (Reuters) - An old map believed to mark the spot where German soldiers hid treasure worth millions of euros during World War Two sparked the imagination of amateur treasure hunters in the Netherlands this week. The map was obtained from a German soldier shortly after the war by the Dutch institute that was tasked with tracing German capital in the Netherlands after the country was freed from Nazi occupation in 1945. "But they never found it and if it existed, the treasure might very well have been dug up already." "A map with a row of three trees and a red cross marking a spot where a treasure should be hidden sparks the imagination," he said.

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