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☆ Turkish lira sinks to new record low on possibility of Erdogan re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Turkish lira slipped 0.5% to trade at 19.70 against the US dollar, a record low. The uncertainty has investors in Turkish government bonds worrying about the country’s ability to pay them back. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on May 14, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Annual consumer price inflation surged to 85% in October, before slowing to 44% in April, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows. “A victory for President Erdogan, which now looks like the base case scenario… would be negative for Turkey’s macroeconomic stability and financial markets,” Peach added.

☆ Turkey’s opposition faces an uphill battle in runoff with Erdogan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Tamara Qiblawi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Istanbul CNN —A hushed silence fell over the crowd outside the Istanbul headquarters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) party. Sullen faces turned to the election count on the large screen — Erdogan’s vote had dropped below the 50% threshold needed to clinch the first round of Sunday’s historic election. Erdogan secured a five-point lead over his principal opponent, destining them to a run-off vote. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan meet supporters outside a polling station in Istanbul, Turkey May 14, 2023. Then our President Erdogan saves us.”Ahead of the run-off vote, Erdogan now has two weeks in which to save himself – and all the indications are that he begins, as ever, from a place of strength.

☆ What’s Next for Turkey?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Justin Porter | Jonathan Wolfe | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Although he fell just short of an outright majority, with 49.5 percent of the vote, signs point strongly to yet another Erdogan victory in two weeks. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters are likely to vote for Erdogan in the runoff, analysts say. Erdogan’s party and its allies also maintained a commanding majority in the parliamentary vote after stepping up nationalist rhetoric. However, my colleague Ben Hubbard reported that Erdogan’s failure to secure an outright majority this weekend indicated that some voters had grown tired of his financial management and drastic consolidation of power. Turkey has been struggling with a sinking currency and painful inflation that exceeded 80 percent last year.

☆ Analysis: Why Erdogan's fate matters to Biden and the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Erdogan’s fate will have major implications not just for his country’s democracy, which he has worked to weaken, but for US foreign policy too. “Our people should be confident that we will definitely win, and we will bring democracy to this country,” he said. Biden’s entire presidency has unfolded in the shadow of autocrats, assaults on democracy and aspiring strongman leaders – abroad, and most remarkably at home. Biden confronts a threat from democracy at homeBut none of those leaders pose an existential threat to US democracy. Ahead of the election, Kilicdaroglu was talking in very similar terms about the need to preserve democracy as Biden does in the US.

☆ Erdogan’s Grip on Power Is Dented but Not Broken, Vote Shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Ben Hubbard | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

His government was accused of botching its response to catastrophic earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people just three months ago. Despite all of that, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came out with a lead over his main challenger in Turkish elections, according to official results released on Monday. With nearly all of the ballots counted on Monday, official preliminary results gave Mr. Erdogan 49.5 percent of the vote versus 44.9 percent for his main challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters are more likely to vote for Mr. Erdogan in the runoff, analysts say. Finally, Mr. Erdogan’s party and its allies maintained a commanding majority in the parliamentary vote, likely further increasing his ability to be re-elected.

But for the next two weeks, he may become the most important figure in Turkish politics, potentially deciding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political fate. Preliminary results from the YSK showed Erdogan as having received 49.51% of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu had 44.88%. Ogan, the third candidate, received 5.17%, enough to swing the runoff vote in favor of either of the candidates. But his political career began with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), where he spent six years before splitting with it, partly due to its growing closeness with Erdogan’s AK Party, according to Turkish media. Formerly in the opposition, the MHP joined the People Alliance that is led by Erdogan’s AK Party in this election.

☆ Wikipedia cofounder slams Elon Musk for caving to Turkey's government and censoring tweets, says Wikipedia fought similar demands and won
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Grace Mayer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Twitter announced it would "restrict access to some content in Turkey" right before the country's presidential election. Wikipedia cofounder Jimmy Wales criticized Twitter CEO Elon Musk's decision to restrict content. Twitter's Global Government Affairs account had tweeted about the changes ahead of Turkey's presidential election held on Sunday. Turkey's highest court determined that blocking the website was unconstitutional, and access to Wikipedia was restored in January 2020, The New York Times reported. Before Musk, Twitter agreed to around 50% of government requests.

☆ Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Lauren Leatherby | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Central Turkey, a stronghold for Mr. Erdogan, voted mostly in the president’s favor. Mr. Erdogan appeared to have the edge as he heads into the runoff on May 28. 2023 Erdogan vote share compared to 2018 Lower Erdogan vote share Higher Erdogan vote share Mersin Diyarbakır Antalya Kayseri Gaziantep Izmir Bursa Samsun Konya Adana Ankara Istanbul In the areas hit hardest by the earthquake in February, most provinces shifted away from Mr. Erdogan. Presidential election results by year Candidates need 50 percent of vote to avoid a runoff election 2014 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 51.8% Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu Ihsanoglu 38.4% Selahattin Demirtas Demirtas 9.8% 2018 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 52.6% Muharrem Ince Ince 30.6% Selahattin Demirtas Demirtas 8.4% Meral Aksener Aksener 7.3% 2023 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 49.5% Kemal Kilicdaroglu Kilicdaroglu 44.9% Sinan Ogan Ogan 5.2% Sources: Supreme Election Council, Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results). The vote was in many ways a referendum on the performance of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.

We are experiencing the result of this marathon with you tonight," Erdogan, 69, told thousands of flag-waving supporters from the balcony of his party's headquarters. But Erdogan, a veteran of a dozen election victories, emerged comfortably ahead of Kilicdaroglu, though just short of the majority needed to win. The outcome reflects the strong support Erdogan still commands, especially in religiously conservative regions where voters long felt marginalised by a once-dominant secular elite. Over two decades, Erdogan has redrawn Turkey's domestic, economic, security and foreign policy, rivalling historic leader Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who founded modern Turkey a century ago. Erdogan's government said the purge was justified by threats from coup supporters, as well as Islamic State and the PKK.

☆ Erdogan's milestones as Turkey faces May 28 runoff vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

[1/2] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. August 2001: He establishes the Justice and Development Party, or AK Party (AKP), and is elected chairman. November 2002: The AKP wins elections with nearly 35% of votes after the worst economic slump since the 1970s, promising to break with past mismanagement and recessions. June 2018: Erdogan wins snap presidential elections. Though his popularity has suffered due to a cost-of-living crisis, Erdogan wins more votes than his rival but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round, teeing up a May 28 runoff.

"The winner has undoubtedly been our country," Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the headquarters of his ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party in the capital Ankara overnight. Going into the election, the opposition had sensed its best chance yet of unseating Erdogan, encouraged by polls showing him trailing his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But the results suggested Erdogan and his AK Party had been able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis. [1/4] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and AK Party (AKP) gather on election night, in Istanbul, Turkey May 15, 2023. "During the campaign period ahead of the runoff, President Erdogan is likely to emphasise stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament," Dalay said.

[1/5] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. His six-party alliance did not attract as many nationalist voters as expected, partly due to support for Kilicdaroglu's candidacy from a large pro-Kurdish party, the officials said. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet Ogan in person in the coming days. Given their conservative views, Erdogan and Ogan are seen as easier allies, even though the president's alliance includes a small Islamist Kurdish party that Ogan also opposes. "His motto will be: if you vote for Kilicdaroglu he will be a lame duck," said another senior opposition official who acknowledged a tough road ahead.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling jitters, Turkey vote, Soros ditches Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden is meeting Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try to hash out a compromise to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. A regulatory filing on Friday from the family office of George Soros showed the 92-year old billionaire investor has sold his entire stake in Tesla. Soros bought shares in the electric vehicle maker, run by Elon Musk, in 2022, as well as convertible bonds in 2018. Soros wasn't alone in pulling out of some of the pandemic-era darlings in the first three months of the year. Friday's regulatory filing showed he loaded up on other big tech stocks, including Netflix, Uber, chipmaker Qualcomm and cloud-based data company Snowflake - which fellow 92-year old investor Warren Buffett bought into back in 2020.

☆ Turkey faces runoff election with Erdogan leading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Reuters Editorial | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PoliticsTurkey faces runoff election with Erdogan leadingPostedTurkey headed for a runoff vote after President Tayyip Erdogan led over his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday's election but fell short of an outright majority to extend his 20-year rule of the NATO-member country. Ryan Brooks reports.

☆ European markets set to open in mixed territory as Turkish election comes into focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a flat to mixed open on Monday as investors in the region focus on the results of Turkey's presidential election. As things stand on Monday morning, with almost all the votes from Sunday's vote counted, Turkey is heading for a runoff vote after neither incumbent President Tayyip Erdogan nor his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu won an outright majority.

☆ Four Takeaways from Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gulsin Harman | Ben Hubbard | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey’s nail-biter election on Sunday made clear that the people’s faith in the country’s electoral system remains strong and that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still a formidable political force, despite his failure to secure a first-round victory. A runoff is likely to be held on May 28 after preliminary results showed Mr. Erdogan with 49.4 percent of votes and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term. Before the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the preliminary results showed the enduring appeal and influence of Mr. Erdogan.

☆ Turkish Stocks, Bonds Slide as Election Appears Headed to Runoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Turkish stocks and bond prices fell after an inconclusive presidential election result that sets the stage for a runoff later this month. With more than 91% of votes counted, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had won 49.49% of votes, while rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu claimed 44.7%, Turkey’s election chief said. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, which would take place on May 28.

☆ ANALYST VIEW Markets tumble as Turkey faces runoff election after Erdogan leads first round
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters, in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. DEBT: Five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points from Friday and dollar bonds fell more than 7 cents. STOCKS: Borsa Istanbul issued a market-wide circuit breaker after the benchmark index (.XU100) dropped 6.38% in pre-market trading and was last down 2.7%. PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FOX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND:"When/if President Erdogan is re-elected, the lira should be trading far more freely. CLEMENS GRAFE AND BASAK EDIZGIL, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON:"The (rates and CDS) market dynamics post the initial move will be dependent on the FX market.

☆ Analysis: Erdogan election showing cools Turkish turnaround hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Hopes among investors of a surge in Turkish markets evaporated on Monday after long-standing President Tayyip Erdogan took a commanding position in Turkey's elections. "Hope is dead," Abrdn's head of emerging market local currency debt Kieran Curtis said of the prospects for Erdogan's main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu and meaningful policy change. Monday's initial market reaction had seen the Turkish lira dip to 2-month low alongside more pronounced drops in banking shares and hard currency government bonds. "A continuity of policies would argue for low FX volatility," JPMorgan added, as Erdogan's economic team would look to limit the changes and FX volatility. Reuters GraphicsAdditional reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Istanbul, Turkey CNN —Turkey will have a runoff election on May 28 after longtime leader President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced into a second round with only a narrow lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Neither candidate achieved the required 50% to take the presidency outright, but Kilicdaroglu now faces a tough battle to win the second round after Erdogan performed better than some opinion polls had suggested. With the final count, the electorate will turn to a second round of voting that could extend Erdogan’s 20-year grip on power, or set the stage for a change in political direction. “If our nation says second round, we gladly accept it. We will absolutely win this election in the second round.

☆ Turkey's lira and stock markets slide as President Erdogan gains momentum in tight presidential race
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Turkish lira sank close to another record low with Turkey's presidential election heading for an unprecedented runoff, with one analyst forecasting further weakness for the currency over the short term. "Unfortunately it looks like [what] up to 49% of Turks have voted for is an economic crisis ... The YSK confirmed Monday afternoon that the presidential election would indeed go to a runoff on May 28.. Neither 20-year incumbent Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu has so far cleared the 50% threshold needed to secure an outright victory. The currency was trading at 19.66 against the greenback as of 1 p.m. London time on Monday.

☆ Erdogan and Challenger Appear Headed for Runoff Election in Turkey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Jared Malsin | Elvan Kivilcim | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will likely face opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential election on May 28. Photo Composite: Diana ChanISTANBUL—Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main challenger said they were both prepared to accept a runoff election later this month with neither candidate claiming an outright victory in a vote that marked the most severe political challenge to the Turkish leader’s two decades in power. Early results appeared to show neither Mr. Erdogan or his top challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu , reached the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, which would take place on May 28.

☆ Instant View: Turkey faces runoff election as Erdogan survives first test but remains at risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters as he leaves his residence in Istanbul, Turkey May 14, 2023. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency. Both sides will try to make a case for themselves but Erdogan will be in an advantage in a second round. GALIP DALAY, ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT CHATHAM HOUSE"If the current numbers are confirmed by the Supreme Election Board, the governing coalition will go to the second round with numeric and psychological advantages. It has the majority in the parliament and Erdogan is poised to go to the second round with a lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu."

☆ What the voters say as Turkey votes in landmark elections
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Deniz Uyar | Oriana Boselli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

ISTANBUL/ANTAKYA, Turkey, May 14 (Reuters) - Here are some views from Turkish citizens as their country voted on Sunday in elections that could extend President Tayyip Erdogan's rule into a third decade or see a transfer of power to his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. I don't think it will go to a runoff," said school staff member Hasibe, 40, in the school where Erdogan voted on the Asian side of the city. I chose democracy and I hope that my country chooses democracy. "Of course, there are good things (Erdogan) did, but lately, they started to look down on and insult the nation. As you can see, even in elections, votes are being cast in ballot boxes outside," said school teacher Behzat Oz.

☆ Turks vote in crunch election as President Erdogan faces greatest threat to his 20-year rule
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Supporters wave flags as Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds a rally ahead of the Presidential elections in Istanbul on May 12, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Erdogan will face his biggest electoral test as voters head to the polls in the country's general election. For the presidency — which is expected to be close — if no candidate wins more than 50%, the vote goes to a run-off two weeks later. In a possibly game-changing development, one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, pulled out of the race Thursday. A former CHP member, he had been under heavy criticism for splitting the opposition vote in a way that would hurt Kilicdaroglu's chances.

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