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United Airlines — The airline lost 0.9% in the premarket after it announced a net loss for the first quarter. The company reported $11.43 billion in revenue, slightly above the $11.42 billion estimated. The company posted earnings per share of $1.35, which fell below the $1.41 consensus estimate from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Ally Financial — The digital financial services company's shares were down 1.3% after its first quarter earnings and revenue missed Wall Street's expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.23, topping against a consensus estimate of $1.20 per share, according to FactSet.

☆ Wells Fargo says investors should expect a 10% stock market correction soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A swift sell-off is ahead once investors realize the banking crisis will tip the economy into a recession, according to Wells Fargo. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 Index is up about 7% year to date. The strategist sees a typical 10% pullback to around 3,700 on the S & P 500. However, Wells Fargo is maintaining its year-end target of 4,200 on the benchmark. CNBC PRO readers can see all the other major Wall Street firms' S & P predictions by going to our strategist survey , which is updated regularly.

☆ S&P 500 futures and Treasury yields gain on Friday as March labor report shows resilient economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures and Treasury yields increased on Friday during a holiday-shortened trading session after the March jobs report showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial average gained 55 points. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 3.93%. The 10-year Treasury yield added 8 basis points to 3.37%. Friday's jobs report runs counter to that weak data and is likely to divide investors.

In this article FRCKRE Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTwatch nowPeople make their way near a First Republic Bank branch on March 16, 2023 in New York City. First Republic has been seen as one the remaining regional banks most at risk for the same fate as SVB, due to the large percentage of uninsured deposits it had as of the end of the fourth quarter. JPMorgan Chase led a group of 11 banks last week that deposited a combined $30 billion into First Republic, but its stock has continued to decline. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon First Republic, 1-dayReuters reported on Tuesday that major bank leaders were having a pre-scheduled meeting in Washington, with First Republic as a topic of discussion, and that the regional bank was considering downsizing as a way to raise cash. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Regional bank ETF, 1-day

☆ Goldman says the Fed will not hike rates this week because of banking system stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs said the Federal Reserve won't hike interest rates on Wednesday as most of Wall Street expects because of the emerging banking crisis. "We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system," Goldman economists wrote in a note Monday. As of Friday, most economists expected the Fed to hike by a quarter percentage point this week, not wanting to delay its inflation fight despite the upheaval in the financial sector. The Fed's current target range is 4.5% to 4.75% following a quarter percentage point increase last month before the banking stress came to light. After this pause, Goldman expects the Fed to resume hiking at its next meeting in May by a quarter percentage point and tack on two more quarter-point increases in June and July.

☆ First Republic shares slide 18% Monday after a credit rating downgrade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works at the post where First Republic Bank stock is traded on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, March 16, 2023. S&P cut its credit rating to B+ from BB+ on Sunday after first lowering it to junk status just last week. Shares of First Republic Bank , which have become the barometer of the regional bank crisis, slid once again Monday after Standard & Poor's cut the credit rating of the San Francisco-based institution. On Thursday, a group of major banks agreed to deposit $30 billion in First Republic to shore up confidence in regional banks. Credit Suisse executives noted that the U.S. regional bank crisis caused enough instability that forced the already shaky institution to merge with its rival.

☆ Bank of America says the stock market's lows will be tested
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A notable Bank of America strategist said investors should fade any rebound in stocks off the government's efforts to backstop the banking system this week, as the S & P 500 's lows from last October will likely be revisited. "Stock lows to be tested one last time (in the) coming months," wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. After tumbling into a bear market, the S & P 500 is up 12% from its low last October. The emerging bank crisis this month stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has put investors on edge before a key Federal Reserve decision on interest rates next week. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months "Banking crises are followed by tighter lending standards and lower risk appetite," wrote Hartnett.

☆ SVB crisis reveals how tough higher rates can be — but these 3 stocks are resilient, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Many companies will find a higher-interest-rate environment very difficult to operate in — as demonstrated by the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, according to Anthony Doyle, head of investment strategy at Firetrail Investments. "It is not a time to be taking beta and index exposure in a higher-interest-rate and a higher-cost-of-capital world," Doyle told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday. It comes after financial regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank and took control of its deposits, in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis over a decade ago. SVB was a major bank for tech and venture-backed companies, which are under pressure due to higher interest rates. "We expect the market to tighten up despite some of the glut of semiconductors that we've seen more recently.

A First Republic Bank branch in New York, US, on Friday, March 10, 2023. San Francisco's First Republic shares lost 70% in premarket trading Monday after declining 33% last week. First Republic Bank led a decline in bank shares Monday that came even after regulators' extraordinary actions Sunday evening to backstop all depositors in failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and offer additional funding to other troubled institutions. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF lost 4% in premarket trading Monday following a 16% decline last week. The slide for regional bank stocks on Monday comes after a rush of withdrawals from SVB Financial forced that bank to close.

☆ Economist Ed Hyman says it might be a good idea for the Fed to pause because of this financial shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Notable economist Ed Hyman of Evercore ISI said the Federal Reserve should consider pausing interest rate hikes in part because of the financial shock that has developed with Silicon Valley Bank . "It might be a good idea for the Fed to pause," wrote Hyman, citing the SVB failure along with slowing inflation data. As the Silicon Valley Bank crisis unfolded Friday, investors quickly reduced their bets for a half percentage point hike at that meeting and instead see just a quarter-point increase . We are having one," wrote Hyman. Though Hyman said it may not be that easy and a Fed pause may be what it ultimately takes to stabilize markets.

In this photo illustration of the TradingView stock market chart of SVB Financial Group seen displayed on a smartphone with the SVB Financial Group logo in the background. Shares of SVB Financial Group , known as Silicon Valley Bank, tumbled for a second day Friday and weighed on the whole banking sector again on fears more banks would incur heavy losses on their bond portfolios. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF was off another 1.5% Friday following an 8% tumble on Thursday. Signature Bank , which does a lot of business with the crypto sector, was off 4% in premarket trading following a 12% tumble Thursday. On Thursday, the bank was worth $6.3 billion with that value set to drop even more when trading begins Friday.

☆ Retail investors are bailing on the stock market, leaving bearish pros to decide its fate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Retail investors are buying fewer stocks as the market stagnates under the weight of higher interest rates and stubborn inflation — a loss of a key group to keep positive momentum going. Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn told CNBC earlier this month that investors should be bearish on stocks because of rising inflation. Along with the macroeconomic woes, Vanda thinks the dented enthusiasm from the retail audience is in part because interest in Tesla shares is waning. Tesla hosted an investors day to start the month that largely disappointed investors because of a lack of details about its future plans, including a possible cheaper vehicle. TSLA 1M mountain Tesla shares, 1 month Tesla shares are off 12% this month.

☆ Credit Suisse thinks this is still just a bear market rally and gives the history to back it up
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andrew Garthwaite, global equity strategist at Credit Suisse, believes this U.S. stock market comeback is still a bear market rally and not the start of a new bull market, despite its significant magnitude and achievement of a notable chart milestone. The S & P 500 is up 11% from its low close in October, including a 3% gain in 2023. History shows, Credit Suisse found, that bear market rallies of this size are not that unusual and some have traded above the 200-day average before falling back into a bear market again. "Bottom line: this is close to the average bear market rally but bear market rallies can be larger and longer," Garthwaite wrote in the report. Credit Suisse also cited bear market rallies on the Nasdaq and Japanese markets to back up its claim that this is just a bounce to be faded.

☆ Barclays says buy Tesla shares, sees 30% rally in the 'clear leader' of the electric transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Barclays initiated coverage of Tesla shares with an overweight rating after the bell on Tuesday, saying shares of Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker should rebound this year because of its relative financial strength and lead in software. Tesla shares lost 65% of their value in 2022, but have been on a tear this year. "We believe Tesla remains the clear leader in the race to EV transition – reinforced by the market amid the sharp recovery recently seen by TSLA," wrote Levy. TSLA 1Y mountain Tesla 1-year Levy launched coverage on the U.S. auto and mobility industry and holds a neutral view of the space overall, citing recession pressures. Barclays likes five other stocks as buys in the space: Rivian , Adient , Borgwarner , Mobileye and Aptiv .

☆ There's a new most crowded trade on Wall Street — and it's not in the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The most crowded trade on Wall Street is "long China equities," according to the latest Bank of America Fund manager survey. Twenty-one percent of respondents to the February survey said that was the investment with the most enthusiasm... perhaps too much. Still, the "most crowded" trades in the survey, which is among the most followed on Wall Street, can stay that way for long stretches. Long China displaces "long U.S. dollar," which was the most crowded trade for the prior seven months in the survey. China equities traded in the U.S. were under pressure for a number of reasons, including the country's Covid lockdowns, as well as tighter scrutiny of its homegrown internet businesses.

☆ Goldman says stock picking is back in 2023 and names shares 'likely to generate the largest alpha'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Goldman note discusses how so-called return dispersion is increasing, which basically means stocks are starting to move independently and not together as a group. "Rising return dispersion and an increasing micro share of stock returns means more opportunity for stock pickers to capture alpha," wrote Kostin. Capturing or delivering alpha simply means assuming more risk in the stock market by taking an active rather than passive approach to investing in an attempt to outperform the market. Where to find alpha Goldman calculated a dispersion score for each stock that looks at how much of its return is driven by company-specific factors and how volatile the stock is likely to be. The following are among the stocks Goldman calculates as having the highest dispersion scores.

☆ Morgan Stanley analyst Jonas says investors may have missed their window to buy Tesla shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Notable electric vehicle analyst Adam Jonas believes investors may have missed their chance to buy Tesla on the cheap after the stock doubled off its 52-week low, with most of the comeback coming this year. "While we reiterate the overweight rating on Tesla shares, we believe the window of opportunity on 'valuation' has closed," the Morgan Stanley analyst wrote in a note Thursday. TSLA YTD mountain Tesla so far in 2023 Jonas noted that the shares now trade for 38 times enterprise value/EBITDA. "Adding over $350bn of market cap this year closed the 'valuation case' window on Tesla even faster than it opened," Jonas wrote. Jonas is not alone on Wall Street in being cautious on Tesla after the big runup in the stock.

☆ Goldman raises short-term market outlook, but thinks stocks will be stuck for the rest of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs raised its 3-month S & P 500 target, but only to catch up with the market's strong start to 2023. David Kostin, Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, raised his 3-month S & P 500 target to 4,000 from 3,600, but kept his year-end forecast at 4,000. The S & P 500 is trading near a 5-month high of 4,100 after gaining about 8% to start 2023. "A soft landing — and in fact above-trend growth — is already priced in U.S. equities," Kostin explained in a client note. "Relative to real interest rates, the valuation of the S & P 500 ranks in the 84th percentile."

☆ Stock futures slide to start week with more earnings and a Powell speech ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. stock futures were lower to start trading for the new week as investors awaited more earnings and an important speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The S&P 500 is up more than 7% for 2023. S&P 500 futures were lower by 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures fell by 0.4%. We are about halfway through fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 and the results have not been great. The S&P 500 just formed a bullish "Golden Cross" pattern and touched a 5-month high last week above the 4,100 level.

☆ JPMorgan's Kolanovic gets even more underweight stocks as overtightening risk rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's top market strategist Marko Kolanovic trimmed his allocation to equities further on concern the stock market is getting too optimistic about a economic soft landing by the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic, who gained a following for calling the stock market rebound during the pandemic in 2020, remains bullish on commodities. Within global equities, he is overweight China/emerging markets stocks on the reduction of Covid restrictions. Here's the asset allocation model from the bank now: Equities: Underweight by 3% (from 2% underweight) Govt. Despite being too optimistic during most of last year, the strategist said this asset allocation model still beat its benchmark.

☆ A simple reason why stocks are off to a good start: History shows the S&P rebounds after down years
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

There's a simple reason why sentiment is bullish in the market Tuesday with little fresh news or data for investors to evaluate: History shows the S & P 500 tends to bounce — often significantly — after down years. A look at the data since World War II shows when the S & P 500 declines more than 1% in a single year, it rebounds on average by 15% in the next year. Some investors think we could be in a similar period, where the Covid inflationary excesses need multiple years to be worked off. Plus, the market since the 1940s has never bottomed before an official recession hits . Many investors see the market unwinding to the lows again as an official recession takes hold this year.

☆ Tom Lee says there's a chance the Fed pauses hiking for all of 2023, sparking a massive stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fundstrat sees that coming in at 4.4%, also below current Wall Street expectations. "Fed framework likely changes to 'predictable Fed' as inflation is now operating near their long-term goal of 2%," wrote Lee in the note this week. "This would be a massive dovish pivot, in our view, and could mean Fed pauses entirely in 2023 (maybe)." Lee's call is well outside expectations on Wall Street. Volatility easing to spark big rally The next piece of the Lee's theory is that as the Fed changes its policy, stock market volatility will collapse.

☆ A 10% pop in the S&P 500 Tuesday? What JPMorgan's trading desk note on CPI really says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The note gave out market-reaction scenarios based on what Tuesday's all-important consumer price index shows and suggested investors were betting on a lighter-than-expected reading. The note then gave the following scenarios: 5% probability — CPI 7.8% or higher — S & P 500 down 4% to 5% 25% probability — CPI 7.5% - 7.7% — S & P 500 down 2.5% to 3.5% 50% probability — CPI 7.2% - 7.4%. — S & P 500 up 2% to 3% 15% probability — CPI 7.0% - 7.2% — "A bullish outcome that could pull terminal rate lower." — S & P 500 up 4% to 5% 5% probability — CPI 6.9% or lower — "A print here could be the technical end of the bear market...This would give increasing confidence in projections of headline inflation falling [to] 3% in 2023. — S & P 500 up 8% to 10% It's that last scenario that turned heads, even with just a 5% probability assigned.

☆ Wednesday’s Powell rally triggered a record 'buying panic' by one market measure
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The TICK index is a measure of internal market activity that traders watch in order to predict turns in the market, in addition to gauging the strength of a market move. As Powell's comments hit the tape and the chair seemingly confirmed that the Fed would slow its rate-hiking campaign, investors quickly bid stocks higher. "So clearly a bit of buying panic on Powell, just as we saw on that CPI day. The CPI day Krinsky mentioned was when September's inflation report came in hotter than expected. Stocks opened lower that day but then staged a massive turnaround that triggered the high TICK index reading.

☆ Top JPMorgan stock strategist says the bear market lows are likely to be retested soon
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The top stock strategist at JPMorgan thinks investors should stop buying the dip as the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes is about to hit the economy, corporate earnings and share prices. "We believe that further market and economic weakness may occur as a result of central bank overtightening," said Marko Kolanovic, the bank's chief global market strategist, in a note Wednesday. "Our view on risk markets in 2023 consists of 2 periods: market turmoil and economic decline that will force interest rate cuts, and subsequent economic and asset recovery," said Kolanovic. "Until late summer this year we thought that corporate and consumer resilience will be able to withstand the significant increase of interest rates, wealth destruction, and global geopolitical uncertainty," he wrote. "The recent crisis of crypto schemes is likely not over, and its end will put additional pressure on risk sentiment and consumers," the report states.

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