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Funds' net short position in two-year futures is now a record 1.278 million contracts. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. STERLING FLIPIn currencies, meanwhile, funds ramped up their broad, net long dollar position by $5.4 billion in the week to $8.45 billion. At around 114,000 contracts, it is now close to July's 118,000, which was the biggest net short position since February 2018. The CFTC data also showed that funds flipped to a net short sterling position for the first time since April.

Persons: STERLING, Jamie McGeever, Lincoln Organizations: Futures Trading Commission, Bank of, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Bank of Japan

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. To recap, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Friday registered their biggest gains since late August, and the S&P 500 snapped a four-week losing streak, after data showed that showed U.S. job growth in September smashed forecasts. Figures on Saturday showed that China's foreign exchange reserves fell $45 billion in September to $3.115 trillion from $3.16 trillion in August. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Wall, Treasuries, Fed's Barr, Jefferson, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, Nasdaq, Analysts, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Israel, Gaza, Asia, China, U.S, Beijing, Logan, Indonesia

A steepening yield curve is when the spread between long- and short-term bond yields widens. Either the long-term yield rises faster than the short-term yield - a bear steepener - or the short-term yield is falling more - a bull steepener. Bear steepenings of the benchmark two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, when the curve is inverted, are rare. In some ways, a positive-sloping yield curve is the natural order of things. Graff reckons the bear steepening is almost over and the curve will struggle to get past -20 bps.

Persons: Warren Pies, Dario Perkins, Lombard's Perkins, Bond, Bill Gross, Goldman Sachs, Tom Graff, Graff, Jamie McGeever, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, 3Fourteen Research, TS Lombard, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, London reckons

Oct 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. A batch of data from Japan includes household spending and consumption figures, leading indicators, and the latest foreign exchange reserves. But Bank of Japan money market data indicates that the yen's jump on Tuesday was not the product of yen-buying intervention. The big policy event in Asia will be the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, and more importantly, its guidance. The rupee goes into the meeting trading at 83.00 per dollar, right down at August's record low 83.45 per dollar.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, payrolls Organizations: Bank, Reserve Bank, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Asia, U.S, India

REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Global currency volatility on Wednesday spiked to its highest since May, a day after U.S. Treasury market volatility also jumped to a five-month high. And although U.S. yields fell across the board, yield curve steepening continued as the 30-year yield pierced 5.00%. Japanese assets, meanwhile, will also be sensitive to possible Bank of Japan activity in the domestic government bond or currency markets on Thursday. An esoteric corner of Japanese markets - yen cross-currency basis - is at levels consistent with previous bouts of volatility.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, of, Bank of Japan, FX, Japan's Nikkei, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, U.S, of Japan, Bank, India, Australia

☆ Column-Bonds eye Q4 salvation in another year to forget: McGeever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury bond indexes are down as much as 2.5% this year, not a huge move and most of it has come since Federal Reserve policymakers published their upwardly revised median policy projections on Sept. 20. For an investor with a typical portfolio weighted 60% stocks and 40% bonds, these losses are more than offset by double-digit equity returns. Their base case is for a 14% return on 10-year Treasuries, rising to 20% in the event of recession. Even in their upside scenario of a more resilient economy, 10-year Treasuries should return around 10% over the coming year, they estimate. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, meanwhile, showed that asset managers had built up a then record net long position in 10-year Treasuries futures of 1.26 million contracts by mid-January.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ”, Keith Lerner, Jonathan Duensing Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S, Treasuries, U.S ., Bank of America, Treasury, Bloomberg U.S, ICE, Advisory, Fed, UBS, Bank of, Futures, Amundi, Reuters Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington , U.S, U.S . Republic, Treasuries

☆ Bonds eye Q4 salvation in another year to forget: McGeever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsOct 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Japanese yen? Japanese stocks had already slumped to a four-month low before the yen's sudden burst of strength. Purchasing managers index reports from Japan, Australia and South Korea will be released, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. The RBNZ is widely seen holding its key interest rate at 5.50% - the highest in nearly 15 years - and keep it there at least until March before lowering it shortly after.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy's, Jonathan Ernst, Jamie McGeever, Bond, Bill Gross, Fed's Schmid, Bowman, Goolsbee, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, New York Fed, Nikkei, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington , U.S, Japan, Washington, Swiss, U.S, Asia, Australia, South Korea, Zealand, Korea

Oct 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Investors in Asia are also awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy decision and guidance on Tuesday. But it is the relentless rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar that will set the tone across the region. But the yen continues to slide, suggesting it is still being driven by U.S. yields and the dollar side of the equation. All but two of 32 economists in a Sept. 27-28 poll expected the RBA to hold its official cash rate steady.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reserve Bank, Australia's, Bank of Japan, Aussie, ., Reserve Bank of Australia, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo, Australia, PMIs, South Korea

Oct 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Chinese purchasing managers index data over the weekend, which pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month, may put a dampener on that. Investors will be looking to start the fourth quarter on a positive note after a pretty awful third quarter. Monday's batch of PMI reports include the latest snapshots from Australia, Japan and Indonesia, while Japan's closely watched 'tankan' survey of business sentiment and activity will also be released. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of India are all expected to keep their key interest rates on hold at 4.10%, 5.5% and 6.5%, respectively.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Japan's, Richard Chang Organizations: U.S . Congress, PMI, Golden, Monetary, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of, Bank of Japan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, India, New Zealand, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of India

Sept 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Investors will not be able to switch off completely over the weekend, however, with the fast-evolving Evergrande saga making for gripping reading. On top of that, China's manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index reports for September - official and unofficial - will be released on Sunday. The MSCI World stock index's rise on Thursday was its first in 10 days, snapping its longest losing streak since November 2011. Would a partial recovery in risk appetite and reversal of many of these trades at the start of the fourth quarter be a complete surprise?

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao 私, 「 Organizations: Investors, Treasury, International Monetary Fund, Japan Tokyo, 「 Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, eyeing, China, U.S, Australia

ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The 'dollar smile' can be a blessing for Wall Street, or a curse. But the speed and extent of the move in the dollar and Treasuries, and tightening of financial conditions, warrant vigilance. According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. financial conditions are the tightest this year. This is not dissimilar to other major economies and regions, some of which - the euro zone, China and emerging markets - are feeling an even tighter squeeze. It might be too early for that to appear in third-quarter results - many big Wall Street firms will have hedged their currency exposure over the near term - but if sustained, fourth-quarter profits could be affected.

Persons: Stephen Jen, reckons Stuart Kaiser, Kaiser, Goldman Sachs, Rabobank's Jane Foley, Foley, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, Citi, FCI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, China, U.S, America

Moves in bond yields, implied inflation breakeven rates, and inflation-adjusted 'real' yields suggest investors anticipate the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy will help lower inflation to around 2.5%. But this is not a re-pricing of the Fed's near-term trajectory, rather a repricing of the longer term economic and inflation outlook. This suggests the Fed is entering a phase of structurally higher rates than perhaps policymakers themselves, and certainly investors, had anticipated. Many analysts are skeptical that moves in bond yields can be broken down, quantified and compartmentalized with any great degree of accuracy. TIPS are a key market-based barometer of investors' inflation expectations, but they have their flaws.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Marvin Barth, Barth, Torsten Slok, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chicago Fed, CNBC, Securities, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

Screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices are seen outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Sometimes markets get up a head of steam and it becomes very difficult to slow the momentum, far less reverse it. Asian stocks barely clawed back any of the previous days' losses either, and world stocks racked up a ninth straight decline. These moves are unlikely to provide a springboard for Asian markets on Thursday, and beyond Australian retail sales there is nothing on the economic or policy calendar likely to do so either.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Japan, China's, Australia, Germany, prelim

[1/2] Thailand's central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But another day of curve steepening, and 10-year nominal and real yields rising to new multi-year highs crushed stocks. U.S. bond market volatility - a key driver of global market stability and liquidity - had its biggest rise since early July. Investors in Asia will also note the significance of U.S. crude oil's rise on Tuesday after a few days of consolidation, not for the 1% rise in itself, but because it lifts the year-on-year price rise to almost 20%.

Persons: Jorge Silva, Jamie McGeever, Dow Jones, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Bank, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bank of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand, Treasuries, Asia, Thailand's, Australia, China

REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Goldman Sachs' financial conditions indexes for China and emerging markets at large are the highest in almost a year. In China, meanwhile, the property sector is back under the spotlight after shares of property developer Evergrande tumbled 21% on Monday on renewed uncertainty about the firm's debt restructuring. The broader property sector index fell 2.5%. Evergrande shares, but the company is systemically important - it is the world's most indebted developer and the property sector accounts for roughly a quarter of China's economy.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Evergrande, Valdis Dombrovskis, Fed's Neel Kashkari, Josie Kao Organizations: China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Global, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Union, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Danzhou, Hainan province, China, Asia, Japan, U.S, Beijing, Singapore

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This may hinge largely on whether the U.S. bond market regains its footing. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- Singapore inflation (September)- Vietnam inflation, trade, industrial production (September)- Vietnam GDP (Q3)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thailand's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S, Vietnam, Singapore

NICKELS & STEAMROLLEREstimating the size of hedge funds' basis trade bets is difficult because transparency and visibility around hedge funds is so low at the best of times, especially with regard to their more complex activities and strategies. Many analysts look at leveraged funds' position in Treasuries futures, and the Aug. 30 Fed paper also noted speculators' repo borrowings. This is a fairly reliable sign of basis trade activity, the Aug. 30 Fed paper says. Overnight repo rates have steadily tracked the fed funds policy rate since March 2022. Basis trade liquidation, as funds got squeezed out of their positions through margin and collateral calls as volatility rocketed, likely contributed to that dislocation.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Christoph Schon, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Bank for International, Deutsche Bank, STEAMROLLER, Futures, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. The Bank of Japan on Friday rounds off one of the most intense weeks in recent memory for central bank policy decisions, with global markets still reverberating from the shockwaves that have followed the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish pause' on Wednesday. MSCI's Asia ex-Japan index also had its worst day since early August, and Wall Street slumped to a three-month low. Further complicating the picture for investors, however, were the surprisingly dovish decisions from the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Bank of Japan policy meeting- Japan inflation (August)- Japan, Australia PMIs (September)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Steven Major, Bond, Fumio Kishida, Australia PMIs, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, The Bank of Japan, MSCI's, Treasury, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, MSCI's Asia, Asia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, France, Britain

Striking United Auto Workers members Laura Zielinski and Aisha Cochra hold their strike signs outside the Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 19, 2023. The fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. A prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices. The United Auto Workers strike against the 'Detroit Three' automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis entered its fifth day on Tuesday. Annual inflation has plummeted this year and by some measures now has, or is close to having, a "2" handle - the central bank's 2% goal is within sight.

Persons: Laura Zielinski, Aisha Cochra, Rebecca Cook, Morgan Stanley, Michael Feroli, JP Morgan, Cox, Stellantis, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: United Auto Workers, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, General Motors, Ford, Cox Automotive, UAW, UBS, University, Thomson Locations: Toledo , Ohio, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Detroit

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. For Asian markets, one of the most significant consequences of the Fed's revisions is the dollar's rise, most notably against the yen. The dollar hit an 11-month high above 148 yen, which Japanese policymakers will be paying close attention to. In that light, it is worth noting that Japan's intervention on Sept. 22 last year was a day after the FOMC decision and revised forecasts. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- Indonesia central bank meeting- Philippines central bank meeting- Bank of England policy decisionBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Jamie McGeever, BoE, Goldman Sachs, Josie Kao Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Asia, Bank of England, Deutsche, Nomura, Treasury, The Bank of Japan, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, U.S, Pacific, New Zealand, Hong Kong

A woman walks past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, in Beijing, China September 28, 2018. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. China is expected to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged on Wednesday, grabbing the spotlight in Asia as the relentless rise in oil prices toward $100 a barrel seeps deeper into investor sentiment globally. Rates futures markets are pricing in a 30% likelihood of a quarter point hike in November or 40% chance it will be in December. China's central bank is expected to stand pat on rates as fresh signs of economic stabilization and a weakening yuan constrain put the brakes on further monetary easing efforts, at least for now.

Persons: Jason Lee, Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Josie Kao Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Reuters, 78th United Nations General Assembly, Investors, United Nations, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, New, New York

ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Hedge funds cut their net short dollar position by nearly $5 billion last week, according to the latest U.S. futures markets data, the biggest swing towards a more bullish dollar stance since May last year. Less than two months ago, funds' were net short of dollars to the tune of $21.3 billion, the biggest bet against the greenback since June 2021. Speculators' net short dollar position against just the G10 currencies, which was worth $18 billion as recently as July, has now completely evaporated. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. Funds cut their net long holdings by 23,151 contracts to 113,080 contracts, the smallest net long since November and the biggest week-on-week reduction since June last year.

Persons: hasn't, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher, Lincoln Organizations: Futures, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Brazilian, U.S

Sept 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The main exception appears to be oil, which continues to forge new peaks for the year in a steady march towards $100 a barrel. Could the oil price spike feature in the raft of central bank policy decisions and outlooks this week? In Asia, that would be the central bank meetings in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia on Thursday, and Japan on Friday. Tuesday's Asian and Pacific economic calendar is pretty light, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy meeting minutes the main event.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Brent, South Korea's, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S . Federal, Treasury, Bank of, South, U.S ., Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S ., Friday's, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Bank of Japan, India's, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Malaysian, Malaysia

A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Attention this week turns to the Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy meetings, and in Asia, the BOJ on Friday. The currency and JGB markets are sending different signals, and both will be seeking more clarity from the BOJ on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, Bond, Li, Guindos, Panetta, Diane Craft Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, The, of, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Bank of England, Singapore, China, Moscow

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