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Both benchmarks plunged more than 3% on Wednesday on news the planned price cap on Russian oil could be above the current market level. A higher price cap could make it attractive for Russia to continue to sell its oil, reducing the risk of a supply shortage in global oil markets. "If the EU agree to an oil price cap of $65‑$70/bbl this week, we see downside risks to our oil price forecast of $95/bbl this quarter," Dhar said. Commonwealth Bank's $95/bbl forecast was based on the assmption that EU sanctions and a price cap on Russian oil would disrupt enough supply to offset global growth concerns, Dhar said. Some Indian and Chinese refiners are paying prices below the proposed price cap level for Urals crude, traders said.
Both benchmarks plunged more than 3% on Wednesday on news the planned price cap on Russian oil could be above the current market level. "If the EU agree to an oil price cap of $65‑$70/bbl this week, we see downside risks to our oil price forecast of $95/bbl this quarter," Dhar said. Commonwealth Bank's forecast assumed EU sanctions accompanied by a price cap on Russian oil would disrupt enough supply to offset ongoing global growth concerns, he said. Some Indian and Chinese refiners are paying prices below the proposed price cap level for Urals crude, traders said. EU governments will resume talks on the price cap on Thursday or Friday, according to EU diplomats.
Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesNew Zealand is at the sharp end of a global housing market squeeze that has grim ramifications for the world economy. “In an ideal world, you’ll get a bit of froth blown off the top [of house prices] and everything is fine. “A decisive increase in unemployment is a very big danger for housing markets,” said Slater of Oxford Economics. Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesA drag on the economyMost market watchers are not expecting a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash. But even a modest a fall in house prices will knock confidence, causing homeowners to cut back on spending.
Oil prices rose in early trade on Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell more sharply than expected last week, highlighting supply tightness ahead of a looming European Union ban and G7 price cap on Russian oil. Uncertainty over how Russia will respond to plans by the Group of Seven (G7) nations to cap Russian oil prices further supported the market, analysts said. Buoying prices on Wednesday, U.S. crude inventories fell by about 4.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 18, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed, according to market sources. Analysts polled by Reuters on average had expected a 1.1 million barrel drawdown in crude inventories. However, on a bearish note, API data showed distillate stocks, which include heating oil and jet fuel, rose by about 1.1 million barrels compared with analysts' expectations for a drop of 600,000 barrels.
Oil rises as Saudi comments outweigh recession concerns
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"Crude oil prices are trying to recover their losses," said Avatrade analyst Naeem Aslam. "That Saudi Arabia has denied there was any discussion about an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies has supported the market today." On Dec. 5. a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, as is a G7 plan that will allow shipping services providers to help to export Russian oil, but only at enforced low prices. Concerns over oil demand in the face of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and China's strict COVID lockdown policies limited the upside. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Isabel Kua Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday as the dollar eased, but global recession worries and concerns about China's rising COVID-19 case numbers denting demand from the world's top crude oil importer weighed on sentiment. Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.89 by 0513 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for January began trading Tuesday, rising 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.34 a barrel. In the United States, crude oil stocks were estimated to have dropped by about 2.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 18, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The front-month Brent crude futures spread narrowed sharply last week, while WTI flipped into contango, which suggests supply concerns are easing.
Hong Kong CNN Business —China has locked down a major transportation hub in the south, as the country’s grapples with its largest nationwide Covid outbreak since April. The lockdown also follows rising cases in Beijing, which reported the country’s first Covid deaths in nearly six months. Asian markets and oil prices slid on Monday as investors fretted about the prospect of China re-tightening Covid rules. Guangzhou, one of China’s largest cities with nearly 19 million residents, imposed a five-day lockdown in Baiyun district, which is home to one of the country’s busiest airports. Goldman Sachs analysts said Monday that the latest news on China’s Covid management has been “confusing” to investors.
Oil climbs as dollar slips, but demand outlook clouds market
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices rose on Friday as the dollar slipped but were headed for hefty weekly losses on expectations there will be no let-up in sharp U.S. interest rate hikes and the prospect of weaker demand from top oil importer China amid rising COVID-19 cases. A slight decline in the dollar helped oil prices on Friday, as a weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. "Oil prices remain under pressure, with demand squeezed by mounting China COVID-19 cases and fears of more aggressive hikes in U.S. interest rates," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a note to clients. Remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week dashed hopes of any tempering of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes. "The policy settings in the city of Guangzhou in southern China, where COVID‑19 cases have surged significantly, will be important to watch," Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
SINGAPORE, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended declines on Thursday as concerns over geopolitical tensions eased, while rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. Brent crude futures fell by $1.04, or 1.1%, to $91.82 a barrel by 0430 GMT. On Wednesday Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI 1.5% after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's COVID curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Sustained concerns about weak demand in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.94 a barrel. Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI declined by 1.5% on Wednesday after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's COVID curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Oil prices eased despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil stockpiles in the United States, added Teng. read moreSustained concerns of demand weakness in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, as it continues to report more COVID cases in major cities.
A key index of Chinese stocks in New York jumped 15% during the same period. Some investment banks even upgraded their China growth forecasts following the policy changes. They want to correct the market’s perception of China’s economic outlook, as President Xi Jinping interacts with global leaders at G20,” it said. “I don’t think the long-term appetite for China and Hong Kong shares will return so quickly. The Nasdaq Golden China Index, a popular index tracking Chinese companies in New York, has plunged more than 33% so far in 2022.
Oil prices fell for a second day in early Asian trade on Thursday as concerns over geopolitical tensions eased and rising numbers of Covid-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.94 a barrel. Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI declined by 1.5% on Wednesday after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's Covid curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Oil prices eased despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil stockpiles in the United States, added Teng.
Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after oil supply to parts of Eastern and Central Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline was temporarily suspended, according to oil pipeline operators in Hungary and Slovakia. “From all accounts, China is persisting with its zero-COVID policy, which is a natural dampener for oil market sentiment,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. That has dampened the oil demand growth outlook, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting demand growth to slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April citing mounting economic challenges. Industry data showing a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles provided some support to oil prices.
Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after oil supply to parts of Eastern and Central Europe via a section of the Druzhba pipeline was temporarily suspended, according to oil pipeline operators in Hungary and Slovakia. U.S. President Joe Biden’s comments that the missile was probably not fired from Russia also helped to ease immediate escalation worries, Innes said. That has dampened the oil demand growth outlook, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting demand growth to slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2023 from 2.1 million bpd this year. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth for a fifth time since April citing mounting economic challenges. Industry data showing a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles provided some support to oil prices.
Summary Brent, WTI prices ease after Friday's gainsMajor China cities report record number of COVID-19 casesU.S. Fed not "softening" fight against inflation - Gov. "USD strength appears to be weighing on oil and the broader commodities complex this afternoon," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. But COVID cases climbed in China over the weekend, with Beijing and other big cities reporting record infections on Monday. China's demand for oil from world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, also remained weak as several refiners have asked to lift less crude in December. A firm dollar after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also weighed on oil.
Oil prices extend gains on China demand hopes
  + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Monday, extending gains from the previous session as China eased some of its strict COVID-19 protocols, fuelling hopes of a recovery in economic activity and demand at the world's top crude importer. Brent crude futures rose 87 cents, or 0.9%, to $96.86 a barrel by 0041 GMT after settling up 1.1% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $89.76 a barrel, up 80 cents, or 0.9%, after closing Friday's session 2.9% higher. Commodities prices rallied on Friday after China's National Health Commission adjusted its COVID prevention and control measures. China's demand for oil from world's top exporter Saudi Arabia remained weak as several refiners have asked to lift less crude in December.
Oil jumps by over 2% as China eases COVID curbs
  + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jeslyn Lerh | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday after health authorities in China, the top global crude importer, eased some of the country's heavy COVID curbs. Brent crude futures rose $2.39, or 2.6%, to $96.06 a barrel by 0745 GMT, extending a 1.1% rise in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.24, or 2.6%, to $88.71 a barrel, after climbing 0.8% in the previous session. The move towards liberalising the COVID-zero policy will provide a springboard for oil markets, given that lockdowns hurt mobility and oil prices more than economic activity, he said. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported oil prices as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.
SINGAPORE, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices picked up on Friday after a milder than expected U.S. inflation data reinforced hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow down rate hikes, boosting chances of a soft landing for the world's biggest economy. Prices were still set to show a decline for the week after COVID-19 cases in top oil importer China jumped, raising fears of weaker fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose 21 cents, or 0.2%, to $93.88 a barrel at 0500 GMT, extending a 1.1% rise in the previous session. "Since traders are hyper-sensitive to lockdowns in the world's largest oil importer, this could temporarily hold the oil market's top-side ambition in check," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. Reporting by Sonali Paul in Melbourne and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Bradley Perrett & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Brent crude futures were up 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $93.80 a barrel at 0101 GMT, extending a 1.1% rise in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $86.75 a barrel, after climbing 0.8% in the previous session. So far this week, WTI has fallen more than 6%, while Brent has dropped nearly 5%. A weaker U.S. dollar boosts oil demand as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. "Since traders are hyper-sensitive to lockdowns in the world's largest oil importer, this could temporarily hold the oil market's top-side ambition in check.
Brent crude futures were up 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $93.80 a barrel at 0101 GMT, extending a 1.1% rise in the previous session. So far this week, WTI has fallen more than 6%, while Brent has dropped nearly 5%. A weaker U.S. dollar boosts oil demand as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. "Since traders are hyper-sensitive to lockdowns in the world's largest oil importer, this could temporarily hold the oil market's top-side ambition in check. Hopes that China was going to ease its zero Covid policy pumped up the oil market last week, but comments from health officials this week made it clear they would continue to strictly curb any outbreaks.
China is again grappling with a COVID surge, with the southern metropolis of Guangzhou reporting thousands of cases. Overnight on Wall Street, shares ended lower as Republican gains in midterm elections appeared more modest than some had expected. The U.S. dollar on Thursday held onto its most of its gains overnight against a basket of currencies. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes eased 6 basis points to 4.0866% while the yield on two-year notes edged 5 basis points lower to 4.5732%. U.S. crude oil futures eased 0.3% to $85.59 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell by a similar margin to $92.37.
Oil falls for a fourth day as China COVID concerns grow
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Sonali Paul | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MELBOURNE, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell for a fourth day on Thursday on concerns that new COVID curbs in China, the world's biggest crude importer, will impact fuel demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 31 cents at $85.52 a barrel. Adding to market gloom was a big build in U.S. crude inventories reported on Wednesday. However, gasoline inventories fell by 900,000 barrels to their lowest since November 2014 and distillate stockpiles fell by 500,000 barrels. Bearishness around the rise in U.S. crude oil stockpiles may have been overdone, Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said.
Brent crude futures fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $95.27 a barrel by 0727 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.71 a barrel. CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said despite tight supply in the physical markets, China's slowdown in demand has a major impact on the oil futures markets. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown. "In addition to ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts, Russian oil supply should fall as the EU ban on Russian crude and refined products comes into effect," ING commodities strategists said in a note. The EU will ban Russian crude imports by Dec. 5 and Russian oil products by Feb. 5, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Brent crude futures fell 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $94.92 a barrel by 0454 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $88.38 a barrel. CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said despite tight supply in the physical markets, China's slowdown in demand has a major impact on the oil futures markets. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown. Meanwhile, supply concerns remain as a European Union ban on Russian crude looms and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, cuts output. The EU will ban Russian crude imports by Dec. 5 and Russian oil products by Feb. 5, in retaliation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Oil steadies after 3% drop on demand fears
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Sonali Paul | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MELBOURNE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices were mostly unchanged in early trade on Wednesday, after sliding 3% in the previous session on worries about demand stalling on potential new lockdowns in top oil importer China as COVID-19 cases rebound. Brent crude futures rose 2 cents to $95.38 a barrel by 0126 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 4 cents to $88.87 a barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 5.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. By comparison, seven analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.4 million barrels. In another bearish sign, API data showed gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million drawdown.
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