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On Friday, the tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week with losses, down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the bulk of Magnificent Seven results is set for release in the week ahead. As it is, all seven of the Magnificent Seven companies closed out the week with losses. FOMC meeting, July jobs report Elsewhere, investors will also be reviewing the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision set for release on Wednesday. Traders will also get insight into the labor market next week, with the release of the July jobs report on Friday.
Persons: Russell, Ryan Grabinski, John Belton, Tesla, Belton, FactSet, Stanley Black, Decker, Lam, Kraft Heinz, Ingersoll Rand Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, 2H, 3Q, Gabelli, Traders, Dallas Fed, Semiconductor, Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter, Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, Co, PayPal, ADP, Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western, Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Mastercard, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Intel, Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Technology, Air Products, Chemicals, Jobs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: Chicago, Albemarle, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna
Traditional infrastructure might not seem as sexy as the newer AI data centers, but Bank of America believes traditional infrastructure has stronger growth prospects than AI infrastructure. The heavy focus on technology and AI has resulted in investors overlooking traditional infrastructure investment. Invest in industrials and materialsIn particular, Bank of America identified the industrials and materials sectors as the best investment opportunity within traditional infrastructure. The industrials sector trades at a relative forward PE of 0.98, and materials trades at 0.92. AdvertisementSome specific industries within those sectors are especially undervalued, such as construction materials and metals & mining.
Persons: , there's, Savita Subramanian, it's, Reshoring Organizations: Service, Big Tech, American Society of Civil Engineers, Business, Bank of, Bank of America Government, Bank of America, Bank, Invest, Industrial Locations: North America, industrials
AdvertisementETF enthusiasmInstead of single stocks, clients across the board are putting their money into ETFs. Bank of AmericaEven though clients sold off individual small-cap stocks, they're not shying away from that size segment of the market at all. Clients invested more money in small-cap ETFs than large-cap ones, providing small-caps with the biggest boost since May of this year. Similarly, while individual tech stocks experienced a sell-off, tech ETFs saw the largest capital inflow out of all sectors last week. Small-cap ETFs include Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSCIX) and Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF (RWJ).
Persons: , Jill Carey, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, Bank of America, Equity, Business, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Big Tech, Health, Bank of America Investors, Communication, Fidelity MSCI Information Tech, NYSE Technology, Vanguard Infomation Technology, Vanguard
US small caps hadn't been down that long since the painful stretch from mid-2007 to early 2011. While smaller stocks languished, large-cap companies dominated, due in part to enthusiasm about their exposure to artificial intelligence. Bank of AmericaThis valuation discrepancy is no secret, so Bank of America believes the market rally will broaden beyond the mega-cap leaders as investors shift toward smaller stocks. Earnings expectations for small caps have tumbled in the last several months, Hall said, noting that analysts are no longer pricing in positive profit growth. "Guidance has still generally been weaker than average for small caps."
Persons: , Jill Carey Hall, Russell, Hall, they'll, haven't, It's, everyone's Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, Business, Bank, America, Bank of America, Federal Reserve,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLee: Cyclicals like financials and industrials will do well into year-endJimmy Lee, CEO of The Wealth Consulting Group, discusses the markets, investment strategy, and the presidential election.
Persons: Lee, Jimmy Lee Organizations: Wealth Consulting
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City on July 22, 2024. Nasdaq stock futures traded lower Tuesday night after megacap tech companies Alphabet and Tesla reported their second-quarter results. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 moved down 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%. Shares of Google parent company Alphabet fell 1.7% in extending trading. Although Alphabet reported a top and bottom line beat, Youtube advertising revenue fell below the consensus estimate.
Persons: Tesla, Dan Greenhaus, Greenhaus, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Google, Dow, Investors, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, Dynamics, Boston Locations: New York City
Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said investors are neglecting this one corner of the market with upside potential: "old school capex." Subramanian anticipates stocks can still go higher from here, on balance. Instead of big-cap tech, the strategist favors what she calls "old school capex," stocks that have yet to price in any gains from artificial intelligence, as well as from the nearshoring trend. "Our view is that there is probably more upside elsewhere in the market, which is why we like old school capex, and we don't think that's getting a lot of attention," Subramanian said. So, that's where we really see the strength in the market," Subramanian added.
Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, we've, CNBC's Organizations: America's
S&P 500 futures inched up Sunday night after the broad market index suffered its worst weekly losses since April last week as investors rotated out of megacap technology stocks for smaller names. Since Biden's disastrous debate performance in June, many analysts were seeing an increasing likelihood of a win by former President Donald Trump in November. There may be a small unwinding of the Trump trade on Monday as Vice President Harris is perceived to have a slightly better chance of winning," Hatfield said. Traders have been pricing in nearly a 93% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates during its September meeting. During the previous trading week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 2% and 3.7%, respectively, marking their biggest weekly losses since April.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jay Hatfield, Biden, Trump, Harris, Hatfield, Russell Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Traders, Democratic, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Federal Reserve, Dow, Verizon
Read previewAs we near the November elections, investors are increasingly focused on what a Donald Trump win would mean for global markets and economies. The charts below show how stock sectors moved in the 24 hours after the debate and how a Trump administration might impact sectors with varying regulatory burdens. If Trump wins, investors will need to cut through the noise and at least understand how he might impact different parts of the economy. Where monetary policy is concerned, leading economist Christophe Barraud believes a Trump administration could pressure the Federal Reserve to be very accommodative on rates, in other words, steeper or sooner cuts. It expects a Trump Administration to allow LNG export permits after the Biden Administration attempted to halt them.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Trump, Solita, Samantha Lamas, Goldman, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg Businessweek Trump, Morgan Stanely, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Trump Media, Technology, UBS, Americas Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Korea, Asia Pacific's, Republican, Trump Administration, Biden Locations: Predictit, Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Asia, Goldman Sachs, Washington
Much of the week was dominated by the market rotation out of 2024 technology winners into small caps and value stocks. Sector scoreboard: Energy, financials, and real estate were the three big S & P 500 sector winners during the uneven week. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, advancers, Donald Trump, Bill Newlands, we've, it's, We've, Newlands, there's, Trump, Danaher, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael M Organizations: CNBC, ., Nasdaq, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, Trump, Communication, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Republican, Constellation, Ford, Honeywell International, Dover, Fed, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, Santiago, Getty Locations: Real, China, Chipotle, U.S
For Europe, the prime concern is tariffs," wrote Goldman analysts. "If the entire impact came in 2025 this would be enough to eliminate any growth that year (our current top-down forecast is 4%)," Goldman wrote. Within sectors, beneficiaries of rising trade risks tend to be defensive stocks such as utilities, health care as well as Europe's GRANOLAS stocks, according to the bank. But he says a "meaningful selloff" in mega tech will see other names "pushed down as collateral damage." And if the AI narrative plays out as expected, a material sell-off in Mega Tech will present a buying opportunity in those names as well," he wrote.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Europe's, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Louis Navellier, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bloomberg, Taiwan, Trump, U.S, JPMorgan, China Gas, Power, Huaneng, Republicans, National Security, Hire, GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L'Oreal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP, Sanofi, Liquide, Tobacco, Dassault Systemes, Intercontinental Hotels, Nvidia, Navellier, Associates, Mega Tech Locations: China, Taiwan, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe, United States, Germany, France, Stellantis
A week ago, investors were scoffing at the idea that small caps and value stocks might have a genuine summer rally. The S & P 500 Value ETF (IVE) , which holds stocks like Berkshire Hathaway , JP Morgan , Exxon Mobil and Johnson & Johnson , finally hit a new high after lagging the tech-dominated S & P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) for more than a year. This fund holds the entire stock market, minus the S & P 500. VXF 1M mountain Vanguard Extended Market ETF over the past month. This trend of buying small caps and value is clearly more than a one-day wonder: It's now a one-week wonder.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan, Johnson, Dave Nadig, Russell Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Johnson, Value, Opportunity Locations: Berkshire, United States
Read previewA growth-heavy mutual fund has crushed its index in the last decade thanks to a remarkably simple investing strategy that most bottom-up portfolio managers would decry as heresy. The Hennessy Cornerstone Growth Fund (HFCGX) managed by Neil Hennessy, Ryan Kelley, and Josh Wein is in the top 3% of its category in the last 10 years, according to Morningstar. AdvertisementThis stock screen, which doesn't examine a company's management team or balance sheet, is "a little bit unorthodox," Wein acknowledged. A 4-part pathway to strong gainsThough unconventional, the four-part vetting process that serves as the backbone of the Hennessy Cornerstone Growth Fund is far from unproven. Although Wein doesn't select stocks like most other managers, he still highlighted five stocks that he's most excited about.
Persons: , Neil Hennessy, Ryan Kelley, Josh Wein, Morningstar, It's, Wein, " Wein, they're, Hennessy, They're Organizations: Service, Cornerstone Growth, Business, Hennessy Cornerstone Growth, Urban Outfitters, Emcor
Stocks like Shake Shack and CarMax are among several of JPMorgan's short-term investment opportunities heading into the second half of the year. Take a look at five of JPMorgan's picks below: Shake Shack made the list with an underweight rating. The stock is up 16% this year as Shake Shack expects to grow its total revenue by 11% to 15% and open 80 restaurants, bringing its total footprint to about 600 locations. Another restaurant stock, Cheesecake Factory , made the cut as a short pick, as JPMorgan expressed concerns about its near-term outlook. The stock appears "fully valued at current levels," Ivankoe added, putting an underweight rating on the company.
Persons: Dow, Nicholas Rosato, Shack, John Ivankoe, Ivankoe, Kenneth Worthington, Worthington Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Cheesecake, FactSet, Group Locations: Chicago
Several stocks could get a boost if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency and the GOP secures control of Congress, the odds of which have increased since the weekend, according to Wolfe Research. Here is a selection of stocks Wolfe expects to reap the benefits of a Trump reelection: Trump Media & Technology Group shares could benefit from a Trump win — and traders have already been piling into the stock since Saturday's event. Trading in Trump Media, which is the parent of social media platform Truth Social, has been volatile in recent months. The stock plunged about 50% in the three weeks after Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts on May 30. Other stocks Wolfe Research expects to benefit from a Trump win include UnitedHealth Group , Halliburton and Emerson Electric .
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, bitcoin Organizations: GOP, Wolfe Research, Investors, Trump, Republican National Convention, Republican, Federal Reserve, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, White House, Evercore, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Halliburton, Emerson Electric Locations: Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Technology
Election risk: While a potential Trump presidency is sending shares of banks, oil and gas, and health insurance stocks higher, some groups face political risk. Shares of the Mexican beer maker are falling about 3% on concerns about tariffs and a tougher stance on immigration under a Trump presidency. Nextracker and Constellation are the two worst-performing Club stocks Monday. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Russell, Donald Trump, Trump, Morgan Stanley, We'll, Charles Schwab, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Trump, , Microsoft, Constellation Brands, Management, Bank of America, PNC, UnitedHealth, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S
Don't expect the mammoth returns of the S&P 500 to continue this year, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management's midyear investment outlook released last week. AdvertisementBut this doesn't mean that Goldman Sachs is expecting a severe downturn. Active management is more important now than ever, and Goldman Sachs recommends taking steps now to prepare for a lukewarm second half of 2024. To address geopolitical instability and financial shocks, Goldman Sachs recommends hedging risk through commodities. Goldman Sachs is seeing increasing opportunities in Asia.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alexis Deladerrière, , Lindsay Rosner, Rosner, Deladerrière, it's Organizations: Service, Goldman, Business, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Fed Locations: Mexico, France, East, Ukraine, industrials, underperformance, Asia, Japan, India
"The beginning of bull markets has this really incredible trajectory," Demmert said in a recent interview. AdvertisementA slew of catalysts, including investors' fear of missing out, will drive the S&P 500 to 6,000 by year's end, Demmert predicted. "This whole thing ends, eventually, very ugly, but I think that's years away — not months," Demmert said. So we start a new business cycle; new bull market. AdvertisementEconomic cycles usually go for seven to eight years, Demmert said, and this bull market began two Octobers ago.
Persons: , James Demmert, Demmert, I'm, inflation's, there's, We're, that's, Scott Organizations: Service, Main, Research, Business, Federal Reserve, Bears Locations: Wall, Japan, India, China
Take a look at this week's overbought names. Pittsburgh-based regional bank PNC Financial is among the week's most overbought names with an RSI of around 73. PNC YTD mountain PNC in 2024 Several real estate investment trusts, or REITs, are also at risk of a slide following this week's rally. American Tower , Alexandria Real Estate Equities and BXP are this week's three most overbought stocks. Shares of American Tower and Alexandria Real Estate Equities gained 5.9% and 6.9%, while BXP climbed more than 8%.
Persons: BXP, Corning Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Depot, Caterpillar, CNBC Pro, Pittsburgh, PNC Financial, CPI, PNC, Alexandria Real, American, Management, Corning Locations: Big, Alexandria
The market is only driven by a handful of massive tech stocks – and therefore, it's built on a weaker foundation than a market advancing on a broader swath of its constituents. Companies don't lose dominance or stock leadership because they were dominant the last time we had a bull market. We trimmed Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Palo Alto Networks , and five other tech stocks at the beginning of the year. Would the market suddenly become more investible if we broke up the Super Six into say 15 different companies and stocks? However, we don't think they are a reason to bail entirely on any of these names.
Persons: it's, Jim Cramer, Jim, they've, we've, we're, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Club, Super, CNBC, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Fed, Barclays, Big Tech, IBM, Palo Alto Networks, Palo Alto, United Parcel Service, Google, Facebook, Gmail, Amazon, Services, Jim Cramer's Charitable, The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Getty Locations: Eaton, Dover, 2Q24, U.S, Manhattan, New York City
For passive investors, it's the best of times: They're seeing new highs on the two major cap-weighted indexes — S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — with low volatility. One example is the Invesco S & P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) , which tracks the S & P 500 Momentum Index. That index follows the performance of stocks in the S & P 500 that have a high "momentum score." Momentum ETFs in 2024 S & P 500 up 18.1% Invesco S & P Momentum ETF (SPMO) up 39.9% iShares USA Momentum Factor (MTUM) up 28.5% Both ETFs also have concentrated bets. Why momentum is a risky strategy Let the buyer beware: Everyone looks like a genius holding on to winners in up markets.
Persons: Staples, Invesco, Eli Lilly, it's, It's, rebalanced, Rebalancing Organizations: Nasdaq, Tech, YTD Technology, Energy, Services, Momentum, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Costco Locations: rebalancing
But a Republican win yielded a higher return at 15.3%. The S&P 500 fell 9% in 2000 as the tech bubble peaked months before George W. Bush's Republican win. This could increase the chances of a Trump win — at least, that's what the market thinks. The two graphs below from a Goldman Sachs note on July 8 indicate what prediction markets perceive as each candidate's odds of winning following the debate. On that front, consumer discretionary stocks are perceived as riskier under a Trump administration due to the threat of increased tariffs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, George W, Barack Obama, Biden's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Service, Republican, Democratic, Business, Bush's Republican, Trump, Republican Presidency, Republican House, Senate, Biden
He reasoned that while higher interest rates were a concern, solid earnings growth would keep stocks afloat. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied 11.1% off its early May lows and extended its year-to-date surge to 16.9%. Since UBS GWM is neutral on US stocks, Lefkowitz recommends that investors keep their expectations in check and look for alternatives. Though not flashy, bonds boast attractive yields and should continue to rally if the Fed cuts rates this fall, according to UBS GWM. "We think investors should position for a lower interest rate environment and buy quality bonds, which have attractive yields and the potential for capital appreciation amid the potential for a deeper easing cycle," Marcelli wrote in the note.
Persons: , it's, David Lefkowitz, who's, Lefkowitz, We'll, that's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, UBS GWM, seconding, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Trump Organizations: Service, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS GWM's, Business, UBS GWM, Federal, Nvidia, UBS, White Locations: Washington
Investors enjoying juicy yields on their cash should start preparing to shift their strategy, according to Goldman Sachs. People piled into cash instruments like Treasury bills and money market funds as the short end of the yield curve rose alongside Federal Reserve interest rate increases starting in early 2022. Now some $6.15 trillion is sitting in money market funds, as of July 2, according to the Investment Company Institute . There's a "real probability" that could start in September, said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset and Wealth Management. While the average spread is around 800 basis points over Treasurys, the bonds are either trading around 300 basis points — too tight for junk bond ratings — or 1,000 basis points or more.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lindsay Rosner, , Rosner, " Rosner Organizations: Federal, Investment Company Institute, Goldman, Wealth Management, Fed, riskier Locations: Goldman Sachs, Treasurys
Read previewA historic surge of corporate bankruptcies is hitting Wall Street, with this year's volume of filings already above levels seen in the past 13 years, S&P Global Intelligence reported. When, earlier this year, hope was much stronger for a quick and significant reduction to interest rates, bankruptcies remained more subdued, S&P previously noted. AdvertisementYet, deteriorating consumer spending is also grinding down on corporate prospects. AdvertisementAmong notable June bankruptcies tracked by S&P Global, were the electric vehicle maker Fisker, as well as Redbox DVD rental operator Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment. That's followed by healthcare and industrials, S&P Global reported.
Persons: , Tacking, Mark Zandi, Zandi, That's Organizations: Service, P Global Intelligence, Business, Global, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed, Nike, Walgreens, P Global, Soul Entertainment
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