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IMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the Research Department at the IMF, weighs in on the fund's global outlook on growth and inflation, and why economies are beginning to see such divergence.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Research Department, IMF
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven "surprisingly resilient" despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts. The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a "soft landing," following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced. "Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose," he said in a blog post. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S Locations: Nanjing, China
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS futures were little changed on Tuesday morning after a losing start to the week for all three major indices on Monday as investors worried about the Israel-Iran conflict. Nasdaq 100 futures were also level, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.1%. The combination of solid retail sales data and the risk-off nature of the Israel-Iran conflict saw yields on treasuries advance three basis points the previous day. Elsewhere, the release of strong March retail sales data on Monday signaled the resilience of the US economy, but also pushed back chances that the Fed will cut interest rates in June.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Johnson Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury, Federal, IMF, United Health, Johnson Locations: Israel, Iran
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's prudent for the Fed to 'wait and see' before cutting rates, says IMF's Gita GopinathGita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, tells CNBC's Karen Tso that it makes sense for the Federal Reserve to "wait and see" before starting to cut rates given the strength of the U.S. economy and stronger-than-expected inflation.
Persons: Gita Gopinath, Karen Tso Organizations: Fed, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA spillover of Middle East tensions is a big geopolitical risk, says IMF's Gita GopinathSpeaking to CNBC's Karen Tso at the International Monetary Fund's Spring Meetings, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, discusses the major geopolitical risks facing markets and the world.
Persons: Gopinath, Karen Tso, Gita Gopinath Organizations: International
The IMF upgraded Tuesday its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% this year — 0.6 percentage points higher than it predicted as recently as January. The Washington-based IMF expects the 20 countries that use the euro to grow just 0.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points from its January forecast. The global economy, meanwhile, is seen expanding by 3.2%, 0.1 percentage points more than predicted in January. China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, is forecast to grow 4.6%, while India is expected to notch growth of 6.8%. In contrast to the United States, “there is little evidence of overheating” in the euro area, according to Gourinchas.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Gourinchas, it’s, , ” Gourinchas, Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, UBS, European Central Bank, Reuters Locations: United States, Washington, China’s, India, Europe, China
Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.
Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, , Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, , Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, , Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States
The Federal Reserve should be able to start cutting interest rates by the end of 2024, according to Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "We remain on our projection that we would see, by the end of the year, the Fed being in a position to take some action in a direction of bringing interest rates down," Georgieva said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." Fed funds futures pricing data suggests that the first rate cut could come in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Georgieva said the Fed should continue following economic data, which will signal when it's appropriate to begin reducing the cost of borrowing money. Still, Georgieva warned that keeping interest rates elevated for longer than expected can create risks to financial stability for the rest of the world.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Dow Jones Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, U.S Locations: U.S, United States
A decade of low growth and high debt is coming, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said in a Thursday speech. Medium-term global growth will reach just above 3% as productivity tumbles, the IMF estimates. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe world could soon sink into an era of depressed growth and spiraling debt, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in a speech delivered at an Atlantic Council event. "Without a course correction, we are indeed heading for 'the Tepid Twenties' — a sluggish and disappointing decade," she said Thursday.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Organizations: IMF, Service, Atlantic, Business
Here's why the global growth outlook has improved
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why the global growth outlook has improvedKristalina Georgieva, managing director at the IMF, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current global economic growth outlook, how the managing director views the path to U.S. inflation, and more.
Organizations: IMF
President Joe Biden is fighting to convince inflation-weary voters that the U.S. economy is healthy. "America has the best economy in the world," he told NBC's Today Show on Monday, laying out an argument that is central to his reelection campaign. "The U.S. economy is leading the way for the global economy. It's driving the global economic train," Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. Besides sticky high prices that are projected to cool in the coming year, Zandi said that the fundamentals of the current U.S. economy are nearly ideal: "The economy is picture perfect.
Persons: Joe Biden, NBC's, Donald Trump, Trump, Mark Zandi, Dow Jones, Zandi Organizations: Flex, International Monetary Fund, IMF, CNBC Locations: U.S, West Columbia, South Carolina, America, United States, Georgia
Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has played a key role in stabilizing Russia's sanctions-hit economy. It's also aimed at the woman behind him: Elvira Nabiullina, the country's central bank governor, who plays a chief role in keeping Russia's wartime economy ticking. At the time, she was the first woman to lead a Group of Eight, or G8, central bank. In 2015, Euromoney, a finance trade publication, named Nabiullina Central Bank Governor of the Year. In December, she issued a warning that Russia's economy was at risk of overheating.
Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, , Putin, It's, Nabiullina, Daniel McDowell, McDowell, wined, Christine Lagarde, Nabiullina —, Richard Portes, Portes —, Portes, Anders Åslund, Åslund, Leo Tolstoy, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Franz Kafka, Yaroslav Kuzminov, Kuzminov, Nabiullina's, Alan Harvey, Herman Gref —, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Shemetov, Michel Camdessus, she's, isn't, Sergei Aleksashenko, Alexei Makarkin, Vladimir Pesnya, Nabiulina, let's Organizations: Ukraine, Service, Russian, KGB, Syracuse University, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund, US, London Business School, Moscow Times, Bloomberg, Higher School of Economics, , Moscow State University, SNS, USSR, Industrial Union Board, Gref, Central Bank Governor, Nabiullina Central Bank Governor, Banker, Central Banker, IMF, Monetary Fund, Financial Times, Government, Political Technologies, Wall Street Journal, RBC, Politico Europe Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Brussels, Nabiullina, Swedish, Moscow, Ufa, Central Russia, Tatars, Crimea, Euromoney, Europe, steadying
Kristalina Georgieva, Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during the China Development Forum 2024 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on March 24, 2024 in Beijing, China. China has two choices right now: return to its old economic policies, or choose reforms to spur growth, according to the International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. "China is poised to face a fork in the road — rely on the policies that have worked in the past, or update its policies for a new era of high-quality growth," Georgieva said Sunday at the China Development Forum in Beijing. "With a comprehensive package of pro-market reforms, China could grow considerably faster than a status quo scenario," she said, according to prepared remarks by the IMF. The measures coincide with other moves Beijing has made in recent weeks to boost confidence among foreign investors and businesses as it pursues a growth target of about 5% this year.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Li Qiang Organizations: International Monetary Fund, International Monetary Fund's, China Development Forum, IMF, World Bank Locations: China, Diaoyutai, Beijing, Bulgarian
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. labor market is in 'good shape'
  + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia stocks mixedAsia markets were mixed Monday with a slew of inflation data from the region due for release this week. Wall Street ended Friday on a mixed note ahead of a shortened four-day trading week due to the Good Friday holiday. "We really believe in style diversification and feel that remaining diversified with value and growth stocks remains prudent," Benson said.
Persons: Seng, Dow, Kristalina Georgieva, Aaron Benson, Baird, Benson Organizations: CNBC, CSI, Nikkei, Nasdaq, IMF, China, International Monetary Fund, Intel, AMD, Financial Times Locations: Asia, China, Beijing
Kristalina Georgieva, Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during the China Development Forum 2024 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on March 24, 2024 in Beijing, China. China needs to "reinvent itself" with economic policies to speed resolution of its property market crisis and boost domestic consumption and productivity, the International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday. Georgieva said an analysis by the IMF showed a more consumer-centered policy mix could add $3.5 trillion to China's economy over the next 15 years. "A key feature of high quality growth will need to be higher reliance on domestic consumption," Georgieva, a Bulgarian economist, said. But the IMF remarks were significant in coming at the outset of a two-day meeting where Beijing is looking to push the message China is open for business.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Xi Jinping Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Monetary Fund's, China Development, IMF Locations: China, Diaoyutai, Beijing, Bulgarian
AI chatbots can help workers brainstorm ideas, do research, write reports, build presentations, learn about new topics and identify patterns in vast troves of data. AI will ‘destroy’ some jobs, boost othersThere is also the very real risk that AI will replace some workers. AI might be able to help slow the rate of decay in the labor force,” Sangani said. “These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sangani said, though he added there are also places where AI will replace workers. IMF warns AI could deepen inequalityEven if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.
Persons: New York CNN — Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, ” Hatzius, that’s, you’ll, , ” Satyen, ” Sangani, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Treasury Department, IRS, Hatzius, International Monetary Fund Locations: New York, United States
EU to Bolster Egypt Ties With Billions in Funding
  + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( March | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
The agreement is designed to enhance cooperation in areas including renewable energy, trade, and security while delivering grants, loans and other funding over the next three years to support Egypt's faltering economy. War in Israel and Gaza View All 222 ImagesInflation has been running close to record highs and many Egyptians say they struggle to get by. Of that, funding from the European Union is expected to total $5-6 billion, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Asharq Business. Egyptian officials say Egypt deserves recognition for hosting an estimated nine million foreign residents and largely shutting off irregular migration from its north coast since 2016. CROSSINGS VIA LIBYABut there has been a surge in Egyptians trying to cross to Europe via Libya, and the European Union is already providing funding aimed at reducing those flows.
Persons: Ursula von der, Mohamed Maait, Abdel Fattah al, Egypt's, Patrick Werr, Philip Blenkinsop, Renee Maltezou, Aidan Lewis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: IMF, Diplomats, Cypriot, European, Asharq Business, Rights Watch Locations: CAIRO, Egypt, Cairo, Israel, Gaza, Sudan, Qatar, United States, European Union, LIBYA, Europe, Libya, Crete, Gavdos, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Tunisia, Mauritania, U.S
A man wearing a Diego Maradona t-shirt walks by the Argentine Central Bank on November 30, 2023 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Data published Tuesday by the country's statistical office showed that Argentina's 12-month inflation rate through February rose to 276.2%, reaffirming Argentina's position as having the world's worst inflation. Hanke said that in 1999 he had drafted a law at the request of former President Carlos Menem that would have dollarized Argentina's economy. Advocates of dollarizing Argentina's economy say the switch could help the country tame skyrocketing inflation and bring an end to its boom-and-bust cycle. Ecuador and Panama are two notable examples of countries that have previously dollarized their economies, but no country of Argentina's size has previously shifted to the U.S. dollar.
Persons: Diego Maradona, Tomas Cuesta, Javier Milei, Steve Hanke, Milei, Hanke, CNBC's, Carlos Menem, he'd, Argentina Javier Milei, Donald Trump Organizations: Argentine Central Bank, Getty, Monday, Johns Hopkins University, Argentine Congress, International Monetary Fund, CNBC, U.S . Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, London, Ecuador, Panama
CNN —Sam George, the driving force behind Ghana’s harsh anti-LGBTQ legislation, portrays himself as a guardian of gay Ghanaians. Making inequality legalWhatever its origins, the bill’s passage is terrible news for LGBTQ Ghanaians. “The sentiment and emotion we are expressing right now is sadness,” said Alex Kofi Donkor, the founder of LGBT+ Rights in Ghana, an advocacy group. On one side, you have politicians like George and a broadly conservative citizenry that will publicly goad the president to act. For Ghana’s president, navigating this intricate political landscape looks set to be a daunting – and unenviable – task.
Persons: Sam George, , , It’s, ” George, George, Alex Kofi Donkor, Nana Akufo, it’s, Ghana’s Organizations: CNN, Rights, Ghana’s Ministry, Finance, Bank Financing, Monetary Fund, Bank, US State Department, Ministry of Finance Locations: Accra, Ghana, United States, Uganda, Ghanaian, “ Ghana, State
“If you have minerals or oil under the ground, how do you come up with a price for a long-term contract? The shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles has caused a spike in the demand for critical minerals, driving these kind of loans. Adesina, whose Abidjan, Ivory Coast-based institution helps finance development in African countries, said these arrangements come with a litany of problems. Photos You Should See View All 60 Images“These are the reasons I say Africa should put an end to natural resource-backed loans," Adesina said. After Chad, Angola and the Republic of Congo approached the IMF for support, the multilateral lender insisted on the renegotiation of their natural resource-backed loans.
Persons: Akinwumi Adesina, paydowns, Adesina, ” Adesina, Glencore, Trafigura, , Mao Ning Organizations: African Development Bank, Associated Press, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Chartered, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China Railway Group, Gecamines, Alliance for Green Infrastructure Locations: Lagos, NIGERIA, China, Congo, Nigeria, Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Africa, Chad, Angola, Republic of Congo, Guinea, Ghana, Beijing, Nigerian, AP.org
Egypt's pound hit a record low against the dollar on Wednesday after its central bank hiked interest rates by 600 points and devalued the currency. The Egyptian pound was trading at roughly 50 to the dollar following the announcement, from 30.85 previously, according to LSEG data. The country's key interest rate now stands at 27.25%, the central bank said Wednesday. Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country at roughly 110 million people, is facing a protracted shortage of foreign currency. "In preparation for the successful implementation of these measures, sufficient funding has been secured to avail foreign exchange liquidity."
Persons: James Swanston, Egypt's Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Economics, United, IMF, Monetary, Government, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: Egypt, East, Africa, London, United Arab Emirates, Cairo
Optimism about the economy spiked among US CEOs to start the yearBusiness Roundtable's quarterly CEO sentiment report jumped by 11 points in the first quarter. The report also showed CEOs expect hiring, capital investment, and sales to all increase in the coming six months. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed Americans' mood improving to start the year, climbing to its highest mark since July 2021. AdvertisementA special question in the latest survey from the business group in this quarter's survey showed that CEOs are feeling downbeat about government policy and regulation. We urge policymakers to recommit themselves to promoting economic growth, creating more American jobs and increasing economic mobility," Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said.
Persons: , Chuck Robbins, Joshua Bolten Organizations: Service, Business, Cisco, IMF, University of Michigan Locations: U.S
China sets GDP target of 'around 5%' for 2024
  + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
BEIJING — China set a growth target of "around 5%" for 2024, according to the "Government Work Report" released Tuesday. The targets for GDP and other economic indicators were published as part of the opening of the National People's Congress annual meeting. The work report emphasized the need to "ensure both high-quality development and greater security," preventing risks and maintaining social stability, among other tasks. The work report said that "internal drivers of development are being built up," but added the country should be "well prepared for all risks and challenges." More than 2,800 delegates attended the opening of the National People's Congress annual meeting in Beijing on Tuesday.
Persons: Li Qiang, Louise Loo Organizations: Economic, National People's, National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party of China's, National People's Congress, IMF, Oxford Economics Locations: Davos, Switzerland, BEIJING, China, Beijing
IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators hold placards during a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024. Inflation hit an annual 29.9% in January, driven by soaring food prices that have triggered a cost-of-living crisis in Africa's largest economy. The naira currency, meanwhile, plunged to an all-time low of around 1,600 against the U.S. dollar in late February. "With about 8 percent of Nigerians deemed food insecure, addressing rising food insecurity is the immediate policy priority." IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators are seen at a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024.
Persons: Samuel Alabi, Bola Tinubu's, David Omojomolo, Olayemi Cardoso Organizations: Afp, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, Washington, D.C, IMF, Central Bank of, Capital Economics Locations: IBADAN, Nigeria, Ibadan, Getty Images Nigeria, Africa's, LAGOS, Lagos, Africa
India is 'easily' the fastest growing economy in the world, IMF executive director Krishnamurthy Subramanian said, as the country's third-quarter GDP growth blew past analysts' estimates. At 8.4%, India's economy expanded at its fastest pace in six quarters, data showed late on Thursday, strong private consumption and upbeat manufacturing and construction activity. Reuters estimates had pegged growth in the October to December period at 6.6%. The Indian government also raised its GDP growth outlook for fiscal year 2023-24 to 7.6% from 7.3% forecast earlier. Subramanian said that growth in India's economy was driven by a shift in the government's focus towards higher capital expenditure, which has increased significantly over the last few years.
Persons: Krishnamurthy Subramanian, India's, Subramanian, CNBC's Locations: India
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