While U.S. officials picked up intelligence that pointed to Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's move on the Russian military , it would have been difficult to anticipate specific outcomes of a revolt with high confidence, former U.S. intelligence officials said.
The events of the weekend “were not only unprecedented in modern times, but were also nearly impossible to predict,” said Jamil Jaffer, a former senior counsel to the House Intelligence Committee and national security official in the George W. Bush White House.
The intelligence community, former officials said, would have likely been doing some guesswork on how assertively and swiftly Progozhin intended to act and the extent of the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime, given the mercurial personalities at play.
The difficulty of discerning from communications what was genuine and what amounted to idle venting of frustrations, and the lack of any comparable situation in recent Russian history would have also posed a challenge, former officials said.
Persons:
Yevgeny Prigozhin's, ”, Jamil Jaffer, George W, Bush, Vladimir Putin's
Organizations:
U.S, Wagner Group, House Intelligence, House