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☆ European markets set to open mixed ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are keeping an eye on key U.S. inflation data. European markets are set to open mixed Wednesday as investors await key inflation data from the U.S. set for release later in the day. That data will likely determine the U.S. Federal Reserve's path in its tightening cycle. Investors will also be digesting the International Monetary Fund's latest global growth report, released Tuesday, which included its weakest medium-term growth forecast for more than 30 years. U.S. stock futures were flat in overnight trading Tuesday, while markets in the Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on Wednesday as investors turned their focus to March's highly anticipated inflation report.

☆ Asia markets mostly rise ahead of U.S. inflation report, bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Sydney Harbour taking in the Harbour Bridge, Opera House and ferries at sunrise during the COVID-19 pandemic on April 20, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. Markets in the Asia-Pacific mostly rose on Wednesday as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will determine the Federal Reserve's path forward in its tightening cycle. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 6% year-over-year increase in the U.S. consumer price index. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized in an interview with Yahoo Finance overnight that the central bank will remain "data dependent." In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% and the Topix gained 0.6% as traders further digested Japan's producer price index and machinery orders report.

☆ Banking turmoil was not a crisis but 'the downside risks are real,' IIF boss warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tim Adams Anjali Sundaram | CNBCThe banking sector turmoil that led to the collapse of several lenders was not a systemic crisis and has now subsided, according to Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance. Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, Adams said the March chaos was a "period of market turmoil or turbulence," but dismissed the notion that it was a "crisis." The IIF is a global trade body for the financial services industry, with around 400 members in more than 60 countries. Adams said the primary concern among members was the downside risk to growth, particularly in advanced economies. The IMF on Tuesday lowered its five-year global growth forecast to around 3%, marking the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.

The latter could slam global growth back to about 1% this year, effectively a recession on a per-capita GDP basis. 'PERILOUS' RISKSThe IMF's Global Financial Stability Report warned of a "perilous combination of vulnerabilities" in financial markets, saying that some participants had failed to adequately prepare for the impact of interest rate increases. Despite the warnings, the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said inflation is still the bigger problem and that price stability should take precedence over financial stability risks for central banks' monetary policy. Only in the event of a very severe financial crisis should those priorities be reversed, he said in a news conference. She added that the global financial system was also resilient due to reforms enacted after the 2008 financial crisis.

☆ UK economy set for smaller hit in 2023 than previously feared - IMF
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

British gross domestic product will contract by 0.3% in 2023, the IMF said in its latest set of global forecasts, a smaller shrinkage than the 0.6% contraction the Fund predicted in January. Britain is no longer the only Group of Seven economy set for a fall in GDP this year as Germany is now expected to shrink by 0.1%, the IMF forecasts showed. But its contraction this year is set to be the biggest among the Group of 20 economies, according to the IMF's forecasts. After narrowly avoiding recession in 2022, Britain's economy has shown some signs of resilience in early 2023. The IMF said it expected Britain's economy would grow by 1.0% in 2024, weaker than most other G7 economies with the exception of Italy while matching Japan's expected growth rate.

☆ IMF warns deeper financial turmoil would slam global growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The IMF's U.S. outlook improved slightly, with growth in 2023 forecast at 1.6% versus 1.4% forecast in January as labor markets remain strong. "Our advice is for monetary policy to remain focused on bringing down inflation," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters. The report included two analyses showing financial turmoil causing moderate and severe impacts on global growth. This "moderate tightening" of financial conditions could slice 0.3 percentage point off of global growth for 2023, cutting it to 2.5%. This scenario could slash 2023 growth by as much as 1.8 percentage points, reducing it to 1.0% - a level that implies near-zero GDP growth per capita.

☆ IMF chief economist: stability risks should not deter central bank inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) - Central banks should not halt their fight against inflation because of financial stability risks, which look "very much contained," International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters. Gourinchas said most large central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, are already near the peak of their rate hike cycles. SEPARATE TRACKSInstead, authorities should contain stability risks with tools used after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, such as central bank lending facilities and other backstops, which would free up monetary policy to stay focused on bringing inflation down. "And in my sense, if they're expecting that because they think the Fed or central banks should take into consideration financial stability arguments...we're not there," Gourinchas said. This could lead to an adjustment of yields on longer-term securities upwards as market expectations become more "realigned with what the central banks are communicating."

☆ IMF chief economist: Severe downside growth risk from bank lending tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF chief economist: Severe downside growth risk from bank lending tighteningPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, speaks to CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche on inflation, the global growth forecast and why he doesn't see risks from a wage price spiral.

☆ Banks in 'more precarious situation' creating risks for global growth, IMF chief economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Interest rate rises have increased banks' vulnerabilities — and their response presents a significant risk to global growth, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist warned Tuesday. "Banks are in a more precarious situation. They have healthy cushions, but it's certainly going to lead them to be a little bit more prudent and maybe cut down lending somewhat," Gourinchas said. In one scenario, the IMF sees funding conditions for banks tightening further and squeezing lending, bringing its forecast of 2.8% global growth in 2023 down to 2.5%. Gourinchas said its models had also forecast a more adverse scenario where financial stability is not contained.

☆ Britain hit by biggest day of strikes in a decade as pay disputes escalate
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The bill would require basic service levels to be maintained in the fire, ambulance and rail sectors in the event of walkouts. Strikes will affect around 23,400 schools, about 85%, in England and Wales, with many closed fully or partially. According to the union, pay for experienced teachers has declined by 23% since 2010 once inflation is taken into account. In a sign that industrial unrest could escalate further, UK firefighters have voted to strike for the first time since 2003. The Fire Brigades Union has given the government until February 9 to make an improved pay offer.

☆ Emerging markets growth slowdown bottomed out in 2022, but risks remain -IMF
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Monday raised its output growth estimate on emerging markets for this year, with projections now showing the economic slowdown in the region may have bottomed out in 2022, on the back of China reopening, a resilient India and unexpected growth in Russia. Inflation, a recent hamper on growth, is seen high although continuing to slow this year and next. Russia, on the other hand, has seen a 2.6 percentage point increase in the 2023 growth projection, which translates to a view of a 0.3% expansion this year. Brazil and Mexico, Latin America's largest economies, were both upwardly revised in their 2023 economic growth by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point, respectively. For Latam and the Caribbean, the overall increase in the growth estimate was just 0.1 percentage point, to 1.8%.

☆ IMF slashes UK growth outlook, adding pressure on finance minister Hunt
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Henry NichollsLONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Britain is the only Group of Seven nation to have suffered a cut to its 2023 economic growth outlook in International Monetary Fund forecasts published on Tuesday, adding to pressure on finance minister Jeremy Hunt to come up with a growth plan. Britain's flagging economy now looks set to shrink by 0.6% this year, a sharp downgrade from previously expected growth of 0.3% in the IMF's last forecast in October. All other G7 economies are predicted to grow this year, mostly at a stronger pace than the IMF forecast three months ago. Responding to the IMF report, Hunt said nearly all advanced economies were facing headwinds, and that past forecasts from a range of bodies including the IMF had proven too gloomy about Britain's prospects. Hunt is due to announce measures that he hopes will speed up growth in a budget statement on March 15.

STRONG DEMANDIn its 2023 GDP forecasts, the IMF said it now expected U.S. GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October and following 2.0% growth in 2022. It said the euro zone had made similar gains, with 2023 growth for the bloc now forecast at 0.7%, versus 0.5% in the October outlook, following 3.5% growth in 2022. The IMF said Europe had adapted to higher energy costs more quickly than expected, and an easing of energy prices had helped the region. Gourinchas said together, the two Asian powerhouse economies will supply over 50% of global growth in 2023. Even with China's reopening, the IMF is predicting that oil prices will fall in both 2023 and 2024 due to lower global growth compared to 2022.

☆ Central banks are fighting a war on inflation. They're not done yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —One of the main jobs of central banks is to keep prices under control, allowing households and businesses to plan for the future with some certainty on what things will cost. Tolga Akmen/EPA-EFE/ShutterstockPolicymakers face difficult questions about exactly when to pause interest rate hikes. The European Central Bank’s main rate is 2%, while the Bank of England’s is 3.5%. Still, investors are becoming increasingly confident that major central banks will change course soon. “Central banks are relatively close to the end,” Sels said.

☆ The IMF thinks we may actually skirt a recession. It is also surprisingly upbeat about Russia's economy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The IMF expects the world economy to grow 2.9% in 2023 — which is better than its October forecast of 2.7%. The IMF also expects Russia's economy to grow 0.3% — a reversal from its contraction of 2.2% in 2022. The IMF expects Russia's economy to expand 0.3% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 — a stark reversal from an expected 2.2% contraction in 2022. The IMF had predicted in October that Russia's economy would contract by 3.4% in 2022. The fund told Reuters that Russia's economy was supported by a "fairly high" export revenue in 2022 and robust fiscal stimulus in part from military spending.

☆ Global core inflation could return to pre-Covid levels in 2024, IMF says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal core inflation could return to pre-Covid levels in 2024, IMF saysPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, says "the job is not done yet" and central banks will probably remain in tightening mode in 2023.

☆ IMF downgrades UK growth forecast, predicting only economic decline among G-7 countries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the U.K. economy even as it turns more optimistic on global growth. Its new 2023 forecast on Monday evening also sees the U.K. as the only "advanced economy" to contract, by 0.6%. This is 0.9 percentage points lower than its previous estimate. The IMF forecasts 1.4% growth in the U.S. in 2023, 0.7% growth in the euro area, 1.8% growth in Japan and 1.5% growth in Canada. Meanwhile, it hiked its outlook for the global economy by 0.2 percentage points from its last report in October, to 2.9%.

☆ IMF: Global economic outlook slightly 'less gloomy' than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —The global economy will weaken this year as rising interest rates and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on activity. The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it now expects global growth will slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023. The IMF now forecasts growth in China will rebound to 5.2% this year, notably higher than its previous estimate. Global inflation is forecast by the IMF to ease from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. “This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened,” Gourinchas wrote.

☆ IMF hikes global growth forecast as inflation cools and household spending surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity. In its latest economic update, the IMF said the global economy will grow 2.9% this year — which represents a 0.2 percentage point improvement from its previous forecast in October. However, that number would still mean a fall from an expansion of 3.4% in 2022. "Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia's war in Ukraine weigh on activity," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the research department at the IMF, said in a blog post. The outlook turned more positive on the global economy due to better-than-expected domestic factors in several countries, such as the United States.

☆ Globalization has been breaking down for a while – here's what could end it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Tom Chitty | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It raised questions about whether the many benefits of globalization outweigh the geopolitical problems it has helped create. The latest wave of globalization has seen great resistance. Worker exploitation and a rise in inequality have also been at least partly attributed to globalization. "I think there's been a globalization bubble, and we're trying to correct it." Watch the video above to learn more about why economists think globalization is fragmenting – and what lies ahead.

Their joint communique released by the U.S. Treasury late on Wednesday did give Japan something - but it was thin gruel. read more"Recognizing that many currencies have moved significantly this year with increased volatility, we reaffirm our exchange rate commitments as elaborated in May 2017," the G7 wrote. And, for the record, the 2017 phraseology was that excess volatility and disorderly currency moves have negative impacts on their economies and financial stability. read more"We cannot tolerate excessive volatility in the currency market driven by speculative moves," he opined after. The big question is whether this dollar surge is in fact a "short run" aberration or whether it is a more permanent feature of the global landscape.

☆ IMF welcomes UK's fast-tracked budget plan, urges government to work with Bank of England
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Matt Clinch | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The tax cuts came as the Bank of England was looking to start selling bonds into the market, unwinding years of quantitative easing. The International Monetary Fund urged lawmakers and central bank policymakers to work in lockstep with each other to mitigate the effects of the slowing economic environment. Speaking more generally, however, he said it's very important that fiscal policy doesn't go in the opposite direction of monetary policy. So that was directly contradicting the objective of monetary policy," he said. His central message was that fiscal policy is hugely important but that it should be done in a way consistent with what central banks are trying to accomplish.

☆ Morning Bid: Confusion reigns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Then BoE chief Andrew Bailey said late Tuesday: "You've got three days left now. You've got to get this done" - even as the Financial Times reported the central bank might extend the support. The tension built with Britain's economy looking set to go into recession as data showed it unexpectedly shrank in August. "The worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. * G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet at annual IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington* Bank of England Financial Policy Committee publishes summary of latest meeting.

☆ Markets are worried the Fed is going too far
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street is worried that yet another high reading on the Consumer Price Index will prompt another massive interest rate increase and inflict more pain on markets and the US economy. But this full-steam-ahead approach by the Fed, based on the notion that iron-clad data is protection enough, has given some economists pause. Last week’s nonfarm payroll report roiled markets, but job openings have now fallen by 1.8 million since their March peak. The IMF believes that global inflation will peak late this year, but will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected,” even as central banks work aggressively to bring it under control. ▸ The Consumer Price Index, a closely watched measures of inflation in the US is due to be released on Thursday.

We think the rebalancing must be done," Bailey said at an event organised by the Institute of International Finance. "My message to the funds involved and all the firms involved managing those funds: You've got three days left now. Bailey was keen to distinguish between the temporary, financial stability nature of the latest intervention and previous quantitative easing stimulus. HEAVY LOSSESInflation-linked gilts, typically held by pension funds and known in the market as linkers, suffered a massive sell-off on Monday as the end to the BoE's programme on Friday approached. Simeon Willis, chief investment officer of pension consultants XPS, said he had seen pension funds selling "across the board" to find liquidity.

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