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Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March. Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections. A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout. Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.
Persons: Warren Pies, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon
High corporate valuations could pose a significant risk to financial stability as market optimism becomes untethered from fundamentals, the IMF's director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department said Tuesday. Financial markets have been on a tear for much of this year, buoyed by falling inflation and hopes of forthcoming interest rate cuts. But that "optimism" has stretched company valuations to a point where that could become vulnerable to an economic shock, Tobias Adrian said. "We do worry in some segments where valuations have become quite stretched," Adrian told CNBC's Karen Tso Tuesday. Adrian, who was speaking on the side lines of the IMF's Spring Meeting in Washington, said that credit markets were a particular area of concern.
Persons: Tobias Adrian, Adrian, Karen Tso Organizations: Monetary, Capital Markets, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group, Washington DC, Capital Markets Department, Financial Locations: Washington, United States
The IMF said Wednesday that increased government spending, growing public debt and elevated interest rates in the United States had contributed to high and volatile yields — or interest rates — on Treasuries, raising the risk of higher rates elsewhere. “Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, told reporters. Higher interest rates make it more costly for households and businesses to service their loans, which can lead to defaults that cause losses at banks and other lenders, increasing financial instability. That means that even if the Fed cuts interest rates later this year — the IMF’s central scenario — US government funding costs may not fall by the same margin, he added. The IMF expects US public debt to continue rising, helping drive government debt worldwide to close to 100% of global gross domestic product by 2029, from 93% last year.
Persons: ” Vitor Gaspar, , Jerome Powell, ” Tobias Adrian, Gaspar, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, That’s Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Treasury, US, Federal Locations: United States, Washington
Citi says it may be too early to classify bitcoin as "digital gold" despite its safe haven properties and recent correlation with the yellow metal. Many bitcoin fans regard the cryptocurrency as a digital version of gold because of its finite supply and its function as a store of value. Citi analyst Alex Saunders acknowledged that it can and has displayed both safe haven and risk asset behaviors, but said the digital gold analogy isn't yet warranted. Bitcoin does not yet exhibit the 'store-of-value' properties of gold, despite both being limited-supply, zero-coupon-bearing instruments." "Adoption of the emergent blockchain technology will be key to the long-term utility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies," he added.
Persons: Alex Saunders, , Saunders, bitcoin, Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi Locations: East
Within hedge funds in particular, there has been a war for talent — or a talent bubble, depending on who you talk to — as the biggest funds grow ever larger. Banks, hedge funds, consulting — it's all on the table for Monnier in a chaotic recruiting environment that is unlike the ones he has experienced before. Pros and cons of the buy-sideThe best job market Monnier has experienced was, naturally, before the global financial crisis. Now, the job market isn't as hot, but the number of players interested in his skillset has grown. Average pay at hedge funds was nearly $500,000.
Persons: , Jeremy Monnier doesn't, Goldman Sachs, Joe Leung, Leung, Monnier, Banks, Goldman, Zar Amrolia, Amrolia, he's, eFinancialCareers, they'd, doesn't Organizations: Service, Michelin, Business, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Monnier, Deutsche, XTX, Barclays — Locations: London, German, Normandy, France, Paris, United Kingdom
Many shares look expensive in today's market, but there are still cheap stocks to be found — some of which can be held for the next 10 years, according to the pros. They shared with CNBC Pro their tips for picking cheap stocks that hold long-term promise, as well as their top picks. How to pick cheap stocks Morningstar's Susan Dziubinski says she believes in owning stocks that offer "some sense of certainty" in terms of cash flow and company fundamentals. Freddie Lait, chief investment officer at Latitude Investment Management, says a willingness to invest in some cyclical stocks is key. Cheap stocks to hold for the long term Morningstar's Dziubinski named three cheap stocks that investors can hold for the next decade: U.S. consumer health firm Kenvue , regional U.S. bank U.S. Bancorp , and medical equipment firm Zimmer Biomet .
Persons: Susan Dziubinski, isn't, Freddie Lait, Lait, he's, Dziubinski, Zimmer Biomet, Morningstar, Bancorp Morningstar, AutoZone Organizations: CNBC, Latitude Investment Management, U.S . Bancorp, Companies, Bancorp Locations: U.S, AutoZone
In 2021, college athletes in the NCAA gained the opportunity to benefit financially from their name, image and likeness — known as NIL regulations. The NIL era has allowed college athletes to save for the future and seek professional financial advice in a way many 18- to 22-year-olds can't. NCAA athletes hire agents and financial advisors to help them negotiate NIL deals, ushering in new financial responsibilities. Copeland is the CEO of Athletes.org, an organization that focuses on helping college athletes navigate this new world. Morgan Stanley's head of Global Sports and Entertainment, Sandra Richards, and her team work with several NCAA athletes.
Persons: Caitlin Clark, Matthew Holst, Olivia Dunne, Chase Griffin, Griffin, Jayne Kamin, I've, He'll, Brandon Copeland, Copeland, Morgan Stanley's, Sandra Richards, Richards Organizations: Iowa Hawkeyes, Ohio State Buckeyes, Carver, Getty, NCAA, Louisiana State University, University of Iowa, UCLA, UCLA Bruins, Arizona Wildcats, Rose, CNBC, NFL, CNBC Global Financial Wellness, Global Sports, Entertainment Locations: Iowa City , Iowa, Pasadena , California
Sergio Ermotti, CEO of Swiss banking giant UBS, during the group's annual shareholders meeting in Zurich on May 2, 2013. Fabrice Coffrini | Afp | Getty ImagesSwitzerland's tough new banking regulations create a "lose-lose situation" for UBS and may limit its potential to challenge Wall Street giants, according to Beat Wittmann, partner at Zurich-based Porta Advisors. The government-backed takeover was the biggest merger of two systemically important banks since the Global Financial Crisis. At $1.7 trillion, the UBS balance sheet is now double the country's annual GDP, prompting enhanced scrutiny of the protections surrounding the Swiss banking sector and the broader economy in the wake of the Credit Suisse collapse. The Wednesday report floated giving additional powers to the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, applying capital surcharges and fortifying the financial position of subsidiaries — but stopped short of recommending a "blanket increase" in capital requirements.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, Fabrice Coffrini, Beat Wittmann, Wittmann, Wittman, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley — Organizations: UBS, Afp, Getty, Wall, Porta Advisors, Swiss, Credit Suisse, Suisse, Swiss Financial Market, Authority, JPMorgan, Citigroup Locations: Zurich, Switzerland
Spain plans to end "golden visas" for non-EU citizens investing €500,000 in real estate. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementSpain will no longer hand out "golden visas" to foreigners willing to pay big bucks for them. AdvertisementIn the last year, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Greece have all shut down or tightened their golden visa programs for similar reasons. In 2018, New Zealand banned foreigners from buying existing homes following a housing affordability crisis, similar to Spain and Portugal's current situation.
Persons: , Pedro Sánchez, Sánchez, it's, Peter Thiel, Meghan Morris Organizations: EU, Service, European Union, Associated Press, OECD, Investment, Henley & Partners Locations: Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia, Europe, New Zealand
JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing. The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. AdvertisementJPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. Related storiesBut now, with upbeat data painting a rosier picture, the bank sees a 55% chance of a soft landing scenario extending through at least the end of next year. On the earnings side, corporates in developed markets surpassed expectations last year, with margins holding close to record highs, demonstrating surprisingly resilient profitability despite high policy rates.
Persons: , Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Kasman, Lupton, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service
Was that a change in the market's character last week, or is it still the same old bull? This is generally to the good, as boring markets are bullish markets while they remain that way. Rates and commodities worries Other asset markets have also been at least inviting the question about a potential shift in character. The good news on this, as I keep insisting, is that it hasn't been a truly Fed-driven market. Though it's easy to imagine the market chafing at this kind of higher-rate, higher-growth equilibrium if it continues too much longer.
Persons: Ned Davis, Jerome Powell, hasn't, That's, We're, It's, Andrew Kelly Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, Investors Intelligence, Investment, Deutsche Bank ., New York Stock Exchange Locations: New York City, U.S
Russia's central bank says it has few alternatives other than the Chinese yuan as a key reserve asset. "These factors predetermine the key role of the Chinese yuan in the formation of reserve assets," it said. AdvertisementA state of increasing isolationRussia's increasing reliance on the yuan shows its economy is becoming increasingly isolated in the international trade and finance system. Moscow's reliance on the Chinese yuan comes with risks. Russian companies that borrow in the Chinese yuan are facing increased lending costs, Bloomberg reported last month.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, SWIFT Organizations: Service, Central Bank of Russia, Bloomberg Locations: Russia, Russian, Ukraine, India, China, Moscow, EU
Read previewBeing a whistleblower was antithetical to everything Pav Gill had done during his nine-year stint as a corporate lawyer. When Wirecard headhunted the Singaporean native to be its head of legal, Gill took up the position enthusiastically. Despite the fruitful outcome, the experience of being a whistleblower traumatized Gill. AdvertisementThis realization was the driving force behind Gill setting up his startup — Confide — a platform for 'internal whistleblowers' to raise issues within their organizations. AdvertisementGill anticipates that this model will work best for companies with over 50 employees, and ideally above 250 employees.
Persons: , Pav Gill, Gill, foraying, Wirecard, Gill's, don't, " Gill, they're Organizations: Service, Allen, Business, Financial, Directive, EU Locations: Wirecard, Asia, Singapore, ESG
The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. From clothes to carsChina’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. “What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat. “But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ” Jens Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Huang Jingwen, ” Eskelund, Brad W, ” Markus W, Voigt, China’s BYD, Warren Buffett, Setser, Li Qiang, , , Joe Biden, Jennifer McKeown, Shawn Deng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, European Union, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Zero, of, People, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Council, Foreign Relations, World Trade Organization, Aream Group, Tesla, Getty, China Development Forum, Xinhua, Agency, ., EV, European Commission, WTO, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, Xinhua, China's Shandong, . Washington, Brussels
CNN —Human trafficking-fueled fraud is exploding in Southeast Asia with organized crime rings raking in close to $3 trillion in illicit revenue annually, the head of Interpol has said in comments that reveal the huge profits being earned by cartels. One international organized crime group makes $50 billion a year, according to Interpol secretary-general Jurgen Stock, adding that $2 trillion to $3 trillion of illicit money flows through the global financial system annually. While drug trafficking contributes around 40% to 70% of organized crime income, criminal groups are also using those smuggling networks to illegally move humans, arms and stolen products among other things, Stock said. Criminal enterprises also exist in Laos, Thailand and the Philippines, with many of the lucrative online scam operations ranging from illegal gambling, to love scams and crypto fraud. Beijing has pressed Myanmar’s military government to rein in the scam operations, but with limited success.
Persons: Jurgen Stock, Stock, ” Stock, Human Rights Volker Turk Organizations: CNN, Interpol, International Monetary Fund, Covid, , , United Nations, UN, Human Rights, Philippine News Agency Locations: Southeast Asia, Singapore, Asia, United States, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Philippines, China –, Beijing, China, Manila, what’s, Malaysia, Vietnam, Hong Kong
Sarah WolfeAs Tiffany Mane read a personal finance book during her train ride to work, a woman sitting near her acknowledged that she, too, knew of the author. And there's a cyclical effect at play: Women utilize Dunlap's resources to improve their financial lives, and then share the information with others. A 2021 survey from NerdWallet showed women were less likely to be invested in the stock market than their male counterparts. "This kind of identity-focused personal finance is 100% necessary, and is the future of personal finance." In that group, members share financial wins and trade advice on topics like which banks or credit cards to use.
Persons: Sarah Wolfe, Tiffany Mane, Mane, Tori Dunlap, Dunlap, isn't, She's, Annamaria Lusardi, Lusardi Organizations: D.C, Finance, Facebook, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Global Financial Locations: Washington, York, NerdWallet
When a recession did arrive, in 2020, it was because of the Covid-19 pandemic. But millions of residents are experiencing levels of hardship not seen in many decades. They say they are struggling to put food on the table, pay for housing and health care and cover their utility bills. But rising rent and exorbitant child care costs for her two children have put training out of reach. Just two generations ago, she said, her grandmother raised a family in her own home as a single parent, while working part-time as a nurse.
Persons: Robyn Northam Locations: Australia, Britain, United States
LONDON (AP) — A British financial trader, who has been described as the ringleader in the manipulation of a key interest rate before and after the global financial crisis, lost his appeal Wednesday to have his conviction quashed. At a three-day hearing in London earlier this month, the men’s lawyers argued that their convictions were “unsafe” and should be quashed. An appeal to the Supreme Court has to be made within 14 days. The scandal emerged in 2012 when some banks were accused of submitting fake numbers on purpose to have the LIBOR set at a rate that better suited them. LIBOR has been phased out in recent years, partly because it was seen by many as worsening the 2008 financial crisis.
Persons: , Tom Hayes, Hayes, Carlo Palombo, Palombo, dishonestly, , LIBOR Organizations: Citigroup, Switzerland's UBS, London Inter, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, of Justice, Supreme, U.S Locations: British, U.S, London, France, Germany
The US government's ballooning interest payments are eating a hole in its budget, they said. "We are headed toward record spending levels, record deficit levels, record debt levels, record interest payments — the list goes and on," Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Fox Business this week. While the US isn't at imminent risk of that kind of chaos, bond markets could "snap back" if the government's interest payments soar to $1 trillion in 2026 as expected, Swagel said. AdvertisementHowever, she noted that some experts on Wall Street were "incredibly worried" about the national debt and interest payments. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has also sounded the alarm on debt payments.
Persons: , MacGuineas, Philip Swagel, Liz Truss, Swagel, bitcoin, Jim Rogers, George Soros, He's, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Budget, Fox Business, Congressional, Office, Financial Times, Bank of, CBO, Wall, DoubleLine
Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters met with the head of China's foreign exchange regulator on Monday, a month after the bank suspended new investments by its clients in the country into offshore products via a quota-based channel. "We have confidence in China's continued financial sector opening and economic transition," Winters said. "The inauguration of SCSCL will enhance Standard Chartered's ability to serve clients domestically and internationally, deepening and diversifying our capabilities in China". StanChart started hiring staff in China since 2023 as it geared up to launch the investment banking unit targeting niche bond deals, chairman of the unit said last year. Blackstone's Schwarzman held a meeting on Monday with the chief secretary of Communist Party of China, Cai Qi, a statement from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs shows.
Persons: Bill Winters, Winters, Zhu Hexin, StanChart, Zhu, China's, StanChart's Winters, Noel Quinn, Blackstone's Schwarzman, Cai Qi, Cai Organizations: China's, Administration of Foreign Exchange, SAFE, Standard Chartered Securities China, China Development, Communist Party of China, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Locations: London, China, U.S, Los Angeles
Interest in fixed income has increased over the past year after rising bond yields put them back on investors' radars. Related storiesCorporate bonds with high yields are the new darling as investors dig for returns that beat inflation, Klein said. The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index, a measurement of non-investment grade bonds, has a yield to worst (a measure of the lowest possible yield) of 7.65% and a one-year total return of 12.9%. It's unusual for equities to be doing very well and high yield to be doing poorly, he added. But buyers beware: high-yield bonds are also called non-investment grade and junk bonds, and it's for good reason.
Persons: there's, Goldman Sachs, Patrick Klein, Franklin, Klein, Goldman, don't Organizations: Business, Franklin Templeton, Bloomberg
The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: , Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.
Persons: , it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Cohen, 46, will join Cloudflare, a San Francisco-based technology company aimed at helping businesses improve their internet security and performance. It will be a familiar role, as she served as Goldman's strategy chief from 2018 to 2020. Having spent 20 years inking deals within Goldman Sachs' investment banking unit, Cohen is no stranger to the boardroom. "But the reality is, Goldman Sachs is not a technology firm," Cohen said. When she broke the news to Argenti, he told her, 'This is exactly what you should do… this is exactly the right company," Cohen recalled.
Persons: Stephanie Cohen, Cohen, " Cohen, David Solomon, Goldman, Beth Hammack, Cloudflare, Solomon, John Waldron, Matthew Prince, Michelle Zatlyn, Goldman Sachs, it'll, Lloyd Blankfein, Brendan McDermid, Reuters Cohen, they're, I, Stephanie, Prince, she'll, Marco Argenti Organizations: Business, Cloudflare, IBM, University of Illinois, Goldman, Reuters, Financial Times Locations: San Francisco, Utah, Urbana, Champaign
The relative growth and decline of countries/empires often lead to global tensions," wrote Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank. More tellingly, Reid wrote, it's a position that China "feels is the historical norm." The chart below from Deutsche Bank shows how much various global economies have contributed to the world's GDP throughout history. America rapidly became a major power around the late 1800s, while India and China's share of global GDP fell way down. "The rapid post-GFC catch-up had been at the epicenter of the deteriorating US-China relationship and their relative performance going forward will likely continue to define it," Reid wrote.
Persons: , Jim Reid, Reid, tellingly, it's, doesn't Organizations: Service, Deutsche Bank, Business, Global, America Locations: China, India, America
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