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☆ New BOJ chief's message to world: We're staying the course - for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1% and the 10-year Japan government bond yield around zero with an implicit cap of 0.5%. "We're in an economy where we're going to be hit more by supply shocks, and monetary policy will face more serious trade-offs," she said on Friday. Ranil Salgado, the IMF's Japan mission chief, sees scope for the BOJ to modify the long-term yield target this year, given heightening prospects of durable wage growth. As long as the short-term rates remain zero or slightly negative, the BOJ can keep monetary policy accommodative even if it tweaks the yield target, he said. "We are advising (the BOJ) to pretty much already be thinking about it," Salgado said on the idea of tweaking YCC.

Her comments were echoed by others who feel the narrative shared by three top central banks of relatively cost-free disinflation rests on shaky ground. Among the Fed, ECB and BoE, only the British central bank projects a recession will be needed to slow inflation - only a mild one at that. U.S. central bank officials have split the difference, projecting a modest one-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate this year from its near-historic low of 3.5%, and slow, but continued, economic growth. Martins Kazaks, Latvia's central bank chief, said the risk of a recession was still "non-trivial," with a host of factors still putting pressure on prices. For the Fed, different policymakers offer different ideas about the forces that will lower inflation as high interest rates slowly cool demand.

☆ Analysis: New BOJ head's message to world: We're staying the course - for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Argentina looks to ease economic targets in IMF loan program, source says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MEXICO CITY, April 15 (Reuters) - Argentina is considering how to persuade the International Monetary Fund to further ease the economic targets embedded in the country's $44 billion IMF loan program, a source said, as a severe drought hits exports and threatens to push the economy into recession. Work will be done on the program," said a source familiar with the IMF program and discussions between Argentina and the IMF. IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said on Saturday she held a "good meeting" with Argentina's Economy Minister Sergio Massa to discuss the program. Some analysts say that the economic targets baked into the program look overly optimistic, especially in light of Argentina's deteriorating macroeconomic outlook. In March, retail prices increased by 7.7%, above analyst expectations, as Argentina's annual inflation rate soared to 104.3%.

☆ IMF warns hard landing ‘within the realm of possibilities' for U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The IMF on Wednesday warned that a U.S. economic downturn remains "within the realm of possibilities," despite encouraging data to the upside. First managing director Gita Gopinath said the IMF had been surprised by the strength of the U.S. labor market and consumer spending, prompting it to revise up its economic growth forecasts for the country. Still, Gopinath noted that the economy remains in a precarious position, with little room for error. "If you look at our growth numbers, we're looking at very low growth numbers for the U.S., and so the risks of a hard landing remain," she said. "It is within the realm of possibilities that events of this kind could happen," she said.

☆ U.S. hard landing remains a possibility, IMF says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. hard landing remains a possibility, IMF saysGita Gopinath, the IMF's first deputy managing director, warns that a U.S. downturn is still "within the realm of possibilities." She adds that Europe is facing a "significant slowdown" this year, despite withstanding the multiple crises of 2022.

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Friday its executive board approved a four-year $15.6 billion loan program for Ukraine, part of a global $115 billion package to support the country's economy as it battles Russia's 13-month-old invasion. The Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan is the first major conventional financing program approved by the IMF for a country involved in a large-scale war. Ukraine's previous, $5 billion long-term IMF program was canceled in March 2022 when the fund provided $1.4 billion in emergency financing with few conditions. The latest loan is expected to unlock about $100 billion worth of additional international support for Ukraine. An IMF official said the $115 billion package includes the IMF loan, $80 billion in pledges for grants and concessional loans from multilateral institutions and other countries, and $20 billion worth of debt relief commitments.

India's oil trade, in response to the turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting. MTS had facilitated some Indian oil non-dollar payments, the trade sources said. An Indian refining source said most Russian banks have faced sanctions since the war but Indian customers and Russian suppliers are determined to keep trading Russian oil. "As it is, the government is not asking us to stop buying Russian oil, so we are hopeful that an alternative payment mechanism will be found in case the current system is blocked." Similarly, many banks from Russia have opened accounts with Indian banks to facilitate trade.

☆ Woody Harrelson Can Play Anyone. It’s Being Himself That’s Hard.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( David Marchese | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +17 min

“I’m an A personality and a B facade,” says Woody Harrelson, and that’s as good an explanation for his charm and success as you’re likely to find. I don’t know. I could go hang off one of those big mountaintop-remover coal things, but that’s not going to stop it. I meet with the director, and I’m going to do it — they’re making it for like $500,000 — then the guy just goes with someone else! I have a gluttonous side, and I know that’s not going to help me be a spiritually better person.

"At the same time, we're estimating a mild recession in Europe and the United States that offset it. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, pointed out that the reopening could help supply chains work better and also boost consumer demand. CHINA-US TENSIONSAdjacent to the discussions on China's reopening was what it could mean for its existing tensions with the United States over issues such as technology, trade and Taiwan, which several WEF delegates expressed concern over. "I think both the U.S. and China will be hurt, which doesn't just mean the national entities but workforces, people will be hurt." For daily Davos updates in your inbox sign up for the Reuters Daily Briefing here.

☆ Premarket stocks: What we learned at Davos: The economy is a mess, but there's still hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Friday marks the end of the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, an elite gathering of some of the wealthiest people and world leaders. The meetings between CEOs, politicians, and global figures at Davos can help set the tone for the year ahead. CEOs and political officials are also worried about the United States hitting its borrowing cap on Thursday, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking “extraordinary measures” to keep the government open. If an agreement isn’t reached, markets could plunge (like they did the last time this happened in 2011) and the United States risks having its credit rating downgraded again. China’s removal of strict coronavirus restrictions late last year is also expected to unleash a wave of spending that may offset economic weakness in the United States and Europe.

☆ Davos: India flexes its muscle as China's star fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In 2023, as global recession fears persist, the country is expected to log the best performance of any major economy. An Invest India banner hanging from a building ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, Jan. 16. India is also due to displace its powerful neighbor as the world’s most populous country this year. They’re a substantial asset — if India’s economy can create enough jobs. “The world needs resilience,” Tata Sons Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran told a Davos panel.

☆ Premarket stocks: How investors are preparing for a debt ceiling standoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now, aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve and large spending packages have helped bring that ceiling into play once again. But Washington is at an impasse over whether or not to raise the debt limit: The White House expects Congress to pass a debt ceiling increase without conditions while Republicans say that any increase should be accompanied by spending cuts. Esther George says goodbye to the FedMost Americans dream of retiring by 65, but at the Federal Reserve it’s required. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City president Esther George turned 65 this weekend, triggering her mandated retirement. “Today, the U.S. is again experiencing high inflation and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening monetary policy.

☆ Davos 2023: Global trade rethink: 'race of the big pockets'?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies US climate bill concerns dominate Davos trade talkSome fear "rich-country game" of rising state subsidiesRevamped globalisation must benefit all, Davos toldDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The United States pitched its vision of "worker-centric" trade. "I am very concerned," World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Reuters on the sidelines of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Three decades of free global trade have, the International Monetary Fund estimates, lifted more than a billion people out of extreme poverty. The United States notably built into its trade pact with Mexico a mechanism for identifying and dealing with the denial of worker rights. U.S. Trade Representative Tai told a panel on Wednesday the United States wanted to "lead a conversation" on a new version of globalisation.

Retail sales, industrial production and producer price inflation on Wednesday all pointed to the world's largest economy notably slowing in December. Finally, bad news may be bad news for risk assets. A range of yield curves in the United States and elsewhere shows investors are clearly anticipating economic slowdown, disinflation or outright recession. But the tone across Asian markets on Thursday is likely to be bearish, given the way world markets went on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Davos 2023: What you need to know about the WEF on Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kathryn Lurie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Climate change came to the fore at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting, where U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on business leaders to follow the principles outlined by an expert group to make credible net-zero pledges or risk greenwashing. The United Nations and standard setter the International Organization for Standardization launched the guidelines in November to become a reference text and help organizations come up with solid plans, avoiding slogans, hype and obfuscation. With activist Greta Thunberg set to arrive in Davos and meet International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol on Thursday, climate change is set to remain centre stage. China could see a sharp recovery in economic growth from the second quarter onwards based on current infection trends after the dismantling of most COVID-19 restrictions, Gopinath said. For daily Davos updates in your inbox sign up for the Reuters Daily Briefing hereEditing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Davos 2023: China recovery could be very quick -IMF's Gopinath
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - China could see a sharp recovery in economic growth from the second quarter onwards based on current infection trends after the dismantling of most COVID-19 restrictions, IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said on Wednesday. "We expect growth in China to come back, to rebound," Gopinath told Reuters in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Economists polled by Reuters see Chinese growth in 2023 at around 4.9%, with some of them recently upgrading forecasts to around 5.5%. "But if growth in China comes in much more strongly, which is a possibility, then we could see another spike in oil prices or energy prices," she said. Reporting by Alessandra Galloni and Mark John in Davos; Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ In Davos, Leaders Fret Over Fragmenting Global Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Greg Ip | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Business executives and country officials are meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. DAVOS, Switzerland—Geopolitical rivalry, technology decoupling and protectionism have increasingly altered the world’s business and political landscape, adding new risks and threats and, for some, opportunity, say executives and officials meeting this week at the World Economic Forum. “We are very concerned about geoeconomic fragmentation,” said Gita Gopinath , the number two official at the International Monetary Fund, in an interview. In conversations with member countries and in Davos, “This is something that comes up a lot.”

☆ The US closed out 2022 with another big drop in inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Thursday's Consumer Price Index report highlights how the inflation situation ended in 2022. Inflation remained sky-high, with the Consumer Price Index increasing year-over-year by 6.5% in December. According to Thursday's release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 6.5% year-over-year in December. Looking at month-over-month figures, the Consumer Price Index fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% between November and December. Thursday's report highlights that the year closed out with inflation still elevated and above the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate.

☆ Premarket stocks: These three big unknowns will drive markets in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And there are three big “ifs” that will determine the health of the economy: The strength of the labor market, the American consumer and the Federal Reserve. Will the labor market cool off? This is all happening as the Fed tries to actively cool the labor market. Policymakers fear that persistent wage growth in a tight labor market will keep already sky-high inflation levels elevated. Mortgage rates continue to soarMortgage rates rose again last week, beginning 2023 twice as high as they were a year ago.

☆ U.S. inflation has not 'turned the corner yet', IMF's Gopinath warns -FT
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Shoppers crowd a supermarket to buy food ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. November 22, 2022. Gita Gopinath, a deputy managing director of the Fund, urged the U.S. central bank to press ahead with rate rises this year. "If you see the indicators in the labour market and if you look at very sticky components of inflation like services inflation, I think it's clear that we haven't turned the corner yet on inflation," she told the newspaper. In October, the IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2023, reflecting the continuing drag from the Ukraine war as well as inflation pressures and high interest rates engineered by central banks to rein in those price pressures. In the interview Gopinath added that she expected China's economy to suffer significantly in the near term.

☆ Morning bid: Rate cut talk, already!
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Indeed, minutes from the Fed's December meeting, released on Wednesday, cautioned against expectations for late-year rate cuts that traders have priced in. They price in roughly 40 basis points worth of rate cuts in the second half of the year and the key is whether inflation will slow enough for the Fed to ease. So perhaps it is too early to be talking about rate cuts? Still, U.S. stock futures point to a weak start for Wall Street shares , and European shares are a touch softer too. Gas prices are falling fastKey developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:- U.S. Nov trade data.

☆ US inflation hasn't 'turned the corner yet' so the Fed should stick with interest-rate hikes, a top IMF official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US inflation still hasn't "turned the corner yet" despite a recent cooling, a top IMF official said. That means the Federal Reserve should stick with its interest-rate hikes, Gita Gopinath told the FT. "If you see the indicators in the labor market, and if you look at very sticky components of inflation like services inflation, I think it's clear that we haven't turned the corner yet on inflation," Gopinath said in the interview published Thursday. Her comments follow Wednesday's release of minutes from the Fed's December meeting, which suggested interest rates could stay elevated for longer. The Fed has been raising interest rates at the fastest pace in its history to pull inflation down to its 2% target.

☆ IMF approves program for Ukraine to help promote donor financing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it has approved a four-month program for Ukraine aimed at maintaining economic stability following Russia's invasion of the country, and helping promote donor financing. Gavin Gray, the IMF's mission chief for Ukraine, said the IMF estimates the country will need between $40 billion and $57 billion in external financing in 2023. The IMF will not make any loans itself but hopes the PMB will help boost confidence among donor nations to support Ukraine. As part of the program, Ukraine has committed to taking measures to strengthen its tax revenues, revive the domestic debt market, and make financial sector reforms. "Strong implementation of the PMB should help pave the way toward a possible full-fledged IMF-supported program."

☆ U.S. prints its first-ever currency with two women's signatures on them
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will honor fellow pioneers when she presides over Thursday’s unveiling of the first U.S. banknotes printed with two women’s signatures, while calling for “much more” work to advance equity for women and minorities. The Fort Worth facility — one of two in the United States — prints over 50% of U.S. paper currency each year. “We’ve made progress in providing greater economic opportunity for women at Treasury and in the economics profession. It means a lot to me and my colleagues that she will be the first female Treasury secretary with her signature on the dollar note,” she said. “It represents that we are finally getting the insight from important parts of our economy and our society,” she said.

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