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☆ Dollar stands tall on bets for slower Fed cuts, potential Trump win
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.

Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's

☆ Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan

☆ Dollar steady at August high on U.S. rates view, election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. Four Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support on Monday for further rate cuts, but appeared to differ on how fast or far they believe any cuts should go. With the U.S. election just two weeks away, the rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high. The yen on Tuesday was at 150.57 per dollar, hovering close to the two-and-half-month low of 150.88.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Harris, Komeito Organizations: U.S, Reserve, Fed ., Federal, Traders, Fed, Trump, PineBridge Investments, Liberal Democratic Party Locations: U.S, Treasuries

☆ Gold hovers near record high on safe-haven demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose on Tuesday and hovered near a record high hit in the previous session amid uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts. Gold prices rose on Tuesday and hovered near a record high hit in the previous session amid uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,729.91 per ounce by 0303 GMT. Gold hit its all-time high of $2,740.37 on Monday and has gained about 32% so far this year. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a 12-week high in the last session, while the U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: U.S, Fed, Citi Research Locations: tailwinds, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza

Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about two basis points higher at 4.047%. After jumping 12 basis points on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose nearly three basis points to 4.21%, a level it has not reached in three months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its gains on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials urged caution on the path of interest rate cuts. It is a quiet week on the data front, but a busy week for Federal Reserve commentary, with an array of policymakers delivering speeches. Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut rates by a half point one month ago.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Dallas Federal, Kansas, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ The economic 'no landing' could drive the S&P 500 to a 13% gain in 2025, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank is adding to the growing numbers of forecasts for a "no landing" of the US economy. Inflation will remain low enough to leave room for the Fed to cut interest rates, boosting stocks. The job market is proving resilient, despite tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates. AdvertisementCooling price growth sets the stage for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, UBS said, which is bullish for stocks. The strategists added that while investors may see some volatility ahead of the November election, it's unlikely to interrupt more positive market catalysts.

Persons: — Organizations: UBS, Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New

☆ The stock market is primed for more gains ahead, Canaccord says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent strong run in stocks could be just the beginning, according to Canaccord Genuity. The recent rally comes as the current bull market turned two years old. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch thinks more gains could lie ahead. .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 SPX during bull market "The current two-year-old bull market remains below the median in both percent gain and duration, suggesting the upside has further room to run," he wrote Monday. The latest market run also comes as investors pore through third-quarter results.

Persons: Canaccord, Michael Welch, Welch, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S

☆ Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.

Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Refinance Rates? Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are around 6.15%, according to Zillow data. In September, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much in October.

Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Traders, Zillow, Fed Locations: Chevron

☆ Markets are now trading with certainty, says Fedwatch Advisors' Ben Emons
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are now trading with certainty, says Fedwatch Advisors' Ben EmonsBen Emons, FedWatch Advisors chief investment officer and founder, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the state of the markets, trading into year-end and more.

Persons: Ben Emons Ben Emons Organizations: Fedwatch, FedWatch Advisors

☆ Small caps just hit levels not seen in nearly three years
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Small-cap stocks are looking very good right now. Lower rates can boost smaller companies by allowing them to borrow money for cheaper and expand their businesses. Smaller companies are more vulnerable to economic cycles. Despite this recently strong performance, small caps are still lagging their large-cap counterparts for the year. To be sure, some on the Street are pointing to another driver for small caps: the potential of a Trump victory on Election Day.

Persons: Russell, IWM, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Cantor, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Insight Enterprises, Trump Locations: China

☆ Why we're downgrading our solar stock Nextracker, plus the chipmakers bounce back
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Semiconductor stocks are rebounding in reaction to a beat-and-raise earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor . NEXTracke r: Shares of solar stock Nextracker are having another rough day, dropping roughly 3%. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, there's, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Amber Wang Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Apple, Taiwan Semi, ASML Holdings, Treasury, Atlanta, JPMorgan, Nextracker, Microsoft, Republican, Netflix, Procter, Gamble, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Center, Afp, Getty Locations: Taiwan, Hsinchu, AFP

☆ Aussie hit by China stimulus scepticism; US dollar firm on Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Aussie dropped as much as 0.51% to $0.6669, the lowest since Sept. 12, before changing hands down 0.38% at $0.6678 as of 0133 GMT. The New Zealand dollar sank as much as 0.69% to $0.6041, a level last seen on Aug. 19. China will hold a press conference on Thursday to discuss promoting the "steady and healthy" development of the property sector. The dollar was little changed at 149.135 yen , not far from Monday's high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1. The euro edged 0.05% lower to $1.08875, and earlier touched $1.0882, matching the low from Tuesday, which was the weakest level since Aug. 8.

Persons: There's, Ray Attrill, there's, Attrill Organizations: New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Statistics, U.S, Traders, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: New Zealand, Beijing, China, Statistics New Zealand

☆ Rates won't be cut at an aggressive pace — here's how to position, according to strategists
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. interest rate cuts are unlikely to move at an aggressive pace, say market watchers. The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis-point rate cut in September — but subsequent ones will be milder, they said. They highlighted the better-than-expected September jobs report, renewed worries around inflation, rising yields and an economy that's still relatively strong. How to position In that scenario — and with inflation expected to continue being sticky, it's important that investors still have exposure to commodities, said Landsberg. Christopher of Wells Fargo said if interest rates moderate and earnings are stronger than expected, market performance will broaden out further.

Persons: —, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Adam Coons, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Landsberg, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Luis Alvarado, Alvarado Organizations: Fed, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Winthrop Capital Management, Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.30%, according to Zillow data. Current 15-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates are in the mid 5% range, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: U.S, Chevron, Government

☆ UBS sees S&P 500 soaring to 6,400 by the end of 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Jonathan Golub raised his 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,400 from 6,000 in a note to clients released Tuesday. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% nominal GDP in 2025 (1.6% real), roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. Golub also noted that a "sharp decline in Fed Funds will likely increase profit margins by 20 [basis points] via lower interest expense." The Fed lowered its benchmark fed funds rates a half a point, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, in September. Bottom line: Stocks could consolidate to end 2024 before scaling new heights in the new year, based on UBS' outlook.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Golub doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Monday's

☆ Gold prices flat as investors await fresh impetus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. "Gold prices have been surprisingly resilient, refusing to succumb to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said. Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead. While, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate reductions likely lie ahead for the U.S. central bank as the 2% inflation target looms into sight.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Fed, Fed Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, London Locations: China

☆ Fed Governor Waller says 'more caution' needed on rate cuts after data showing a hot economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed Governor Christopher Waller says recent data shows the Fed should ease more cautiously. The Fed cut rates by a50-basis points last month and is expected to make a smaller cut next month. AdvertisementWaller said recent data, though, shows an economy that's still hot. He pointed to recent data on employment, inflation, income and gross domestic product. Waller said he will be watching closely for any further data that shows the Fed should ease less aggressively.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, —, Waller's Organizations: Service, Stanford University, Fed

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 hits another record close as rally presses on amid earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks hit record highs on Monday as investors get ready for a wave of earnings reports. Over 80 S&P 500 companies, including Netflix and Goldman Sachs, report earnings this week. Monday's close marked the S&P 500's 46th record close of the year, as investors continue to power the two-year-old bull market higher. More than 80 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report third-quarter earnings results this week, with major names like Netflix, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley on deck. According to data from Fundstrat, 6% of S&P 500 companies have already reported their results.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Fed Governor Waller, —, Monday's, Morgan Stanley, Adriana Kugler, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: Netflix, Fed, Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal, Stanford University's Hoover Institution Locations: Fundstrat, Here's

☆ What happened Friday hasn't happened in ages. It bodes well for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Getting ready for the "two problematic stories," Wells Fargo and JPMorgan , which came later in the morning, took some real digging. ET – Wells Fargo shares turned and started inching up. With what you saw in Wells Fargo and JP Morgan on Friday. Think like this: When the psychology of the market changes, people don't want to bang out of Wells Fargo, they want to get in. But there is no doubt that Wells Fargo at 11 times forward earnings now seems a little silly given that the background is so positive.

Persons: Larry Fink, Wells, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jamie Dimon, Jeff Marks, JP Morgan, Scharf, It's, Warren Buffett, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, haven't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: BlackRock, JPMorgan, Wall, Club, Wells Fargo, Elon, SpaceX, Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Fed, Bank of America, Boston, Walmart, Costco, Semiconductors, Enterprise, JFrog, Microsoft, –, Dow, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, NII, U.S

☆ Don't let September's jobs report fool you — the labor market is still deteriorating at a worrying rate, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.

Persons: —, bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average powered to new highs on Friday and capped off a winning week as banking behemoths ushered in a promising start to the third-quarter earnings season. The broad index gained 0.6% to end at 5,815.03, while the Dow rallied 409.74 points, or nearly 1%, to finish at 42,863.86. The S&P and Nasdaq jumped 1.1% each, while the Dow toted a 1.2% gain. A strong start to the third-quarter earnings season provided a lift to stocks. That included a cooler-than-expected September producer price index reading after the consumer price index increased slightly more than expected.

Persons: —, ”, Craig Sterling, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Kim Forrest, Forrest, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, David Russell, “ Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Bokeh Capital Partners, “, Federal, Federal Reserve

☆ Gold drifts higher after data supports U.S. rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices climbed on Friday after recent data supported bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while market participants awaited the U.S. Producer Price Index report for further direction. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,641.70 per ounce by 0245 GMT but was down about 0.4% for the week. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, while jobless claims increased to 258,000 in the week ended Oct. 5, versus estimates of 230,000. "Gold is seeing short-term gains as recent data has been positive. If the PPI data comes in softer, gold's momentum could continue upward," said Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Persons: Price, Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, CME's Organizations: Federal, PPI, Asia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, CME's FedWatch, Beirut

☆ Dollar bulls suffer setback as traders add to Fed cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar fell from two-month highs hit overnight versus its major peers after signs of weakness in the labor market boosted the case for quicker Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bets for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Nov. 7 increased to 83.3% from 80.3% a day earlier, with the remaining odds for policy to stay steady, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A week earlier, there was a 32.1% chance of a half-point reduction and 67.9% probability of a quarter-point cut. The dollar added 0.06% to 148.68 yen , inching back towards Thursday's high of 149.58 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 2. The Australian dollar held firm at $0.67395 after rebounding from its lowest since Sept. 16 at $0.6702 on Thursday.

Persons: Tapas Strickland, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: China

☆ CNBC Daily Open: CPI’s higher than expected. Is it just a “janky” data point?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "I am totally comfortable with skipping [rate cuts for] a meeting if the data suggests that's appropriate," Bostic told The Wall Street Journal in an interview Thursday. The data suggests so. "This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November," said Bostic, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Brusuelas, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: AMD, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Federal, Market, RSM Locations: Pike, Seattle , Washington, US

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