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London CNN —The latest inflation figures from the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union are feeding hopes that the worst is over and some relief for struggling households could arrive soon. Annual inflation in the United States slowed to 6.4% in January, easing for the seventh consecutive month. In the United Kingdom, which faces weaker economic prospects than its peers, the rate of price increases is also falling: In January, annual inflation dipped to 10.1% from a recent high of 11.1% this past fall. “The bottom line is inflation is still a problem,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. In the United States, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a version of the Consumer Price Index that tracks “sticky” prices.
Are you getting a pay raise this year?
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Cindy Perman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
"Job switching is one of the best ways to get a raise," Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed, told CNBC. In January, for example, those who stayed got an average raise of 5.4%, while those who switched scored an average salary increase of 7.3%. Your best shot at getting that raise is going in there prepared. "State facts so you can show your boss what you're worth," Vicki Salemi, a career expert at Monster.com, told CNBC. Here are a few tips for asking for a raise: Know the going rate for your line of work.
Speculation on the 'real reason' tech companies are shedding workersSome on TikTok and Reddit have posited that the "real reason" tech companies are cutting jobs is to tamp down fat salaries bloated by the Great Resignation. Tech companies scrambled to meet demand and went on a hiring binge during the pandemic. At a time when wages were climbing at the fastest pace in decades across the board, tech companies were especially generous to new hires — and even existing employees. A year and a half ago, compensation was a "completely different ball game," a former recruiter at Google told Insider. Will tech companies then try to hire back their workers at lower salaries?
Did the economy end 2022 with a bang or a whimper?
  + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
But the United States economy still seems to be chugging along just fine after experiencing a hiccup in the first half of 2022. Despite worries about weaker consumer spending during the holidays, economists are forecasting solid growth for the fourth quarter. Yearning for earningsMore blue chip companies will report fourth quarter results (and perhaps give guidance about the first quarter of 2023 and beyond) this week. But according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters, earnings for the tech sector are expected to fall nearly 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Dow (DOW), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX) and American Express (AXP).
That was up from 10% in January 2022, but the pessimists were far outnumbered, with 71% of tech workers feeling positive. Many people spent Covid-19 lockdowns developing their digital skills, and plenty wound up switching from other sectors, like retail or education, into tech roles elsewhere. Professional and business services roles, which include engineering and “computer services,” were down 6,000 last month from November. Even so, employers’ broad appetite for tech skills could put something of a floor under wages — and prop up the appeal of tech roles in general — even as the economy slows. Experienced tech workers, rather than those new to the field, largely drove those pay gains, the jobs platform Hired found in research published in September.
Across Wall Street, finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season. Of course, there's some uncertainty in all this, and Wall Street could still be proved right. Already some Wall Street economists are revising their predictions given the strong economy, even if they're not backing off their priors quite yet. It may take years to get the Chinese consumer, on which Wall Street has placed so many hopes, back to the strength of yesteryear. Don't hatchet your chickens before they countTo be fair, not every Wall Street analyst is looking sheepish right now.
Morning bid: Rate cut talk, already!
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Indeed, minutes from the Fed's December meeting, released on Wednesday, cautioned against expectations for late-year rate cuts that traders have priced in. They price in roughly 40 basis points worth of rate cuts in the second half of the year and the key is whether inflation will slow enough for the Fed to ease. So perhaps it is too early to be talking about rate cuts? Still, U.S. stock futures point to a weak start for Wall Street shares , and European shares are a touch softer too. Gas prices are falling fastKey developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:- U.S. Nov trade data.
Filadendron | E+ | Getty ImagesThe share of workers who quit their jobs jumped in November for the first time since last spring — and they're getting a big pay bump for moving, data shows. The labor market remains strong by historical standards, characterized by a high level of job openings and low layoffs. That translates to ample opportunity for workers, who generally get an increase in pay when they accept a new position. In other words, the average consumer lost buying power because rapidly rising prices for goods and services outstripped pay growth. Wage growth has moderated a bit from 2021, though remains strong relative to its pre-pandemic trend, Bunker said.
A North Carolina restaurant chain has hiked wages by 15% to retain its staff, per the WSJ. Famous Toastery's president said rivals had often tried to poach staff by offering $2 extra an hour. "We didn't want to be as easy to poach," Sebazco told the Journal. The wage increase of 15%, compared with the same period last year, applied across eight of Famous Toastery's restaurants, Sebazco added. One pizza chain franchisee told Insider he had asked his general managers to poach staff from rival restaurants as "everything is fair game."
Employers are giving existing employees more merit and other pay increases, to defend against poaching by rivals and avoid the drain of training new workers. Workers who stay put in their jobs are getting their heftiest pay raises in decades, a factor putting pressure on inflation. Wages for workers who stayed at their jobs were up 5.5% in November from a year earlier, averaged over 12 months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That was up from 3.7% annual growth in January 2022 and the highest increase in 25 years of record-keeping.
New York CNN —Workers who stick with the same employers are enjoying the biggest raises in nearly a quarter century. In November, the median wage growth over the past year for job stayers was 5.5%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which began keeping records in 1997. (Job switchers have had it even better, with a median wage growth of 7.7%.) CNN wants to hear from workers who recently received hefty pay hikes to entice them to stay at the same company and from employers who are doling out generous raises to retain their staffs.
Many Black Americans have invested in cryptocurrency in recent years. Closing the wealth gap is among the reasons some Black investors turned to crypto in the first place. As of September 2021, 18% of Black Americans overall had invested in, traded, or used a cryptocurrency, compared to 13% of white Americans, according to a Pew Research poll of over 10,000 US adults. First, some Black investors may see crypto as a way to close the racial wealth gap. An April Ariel and Charles Schwab survey found 28% of Black Americans distrust banks, compared to 18% of white Americans.
She eventually learned that the balance issues and ear pain resulted from a damaged vestibular nerve, a known effect of long Covid. She found that 2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to long Covid. For one, many of the hundreds of potential long Covid symptoms are invisible to others, even if disabling for the afflicted. Why the long Covid labor gap mattersJerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, mentioned Sheiner and Salwati's long Covid research in a recent speech about inflation and the labor market. That burden will continue to rise if long Covid patients don't start recovering at greater rates, she said.
US stocks finished lower on Tuesday as investors cast doubt on the Fed easing rate hikes. A strong November jobs report and solid GDP data suggests a resilient economy may keep the Fed hiking rates for longer. The S&P 500 extended its two-day decline to more than 3% as its 200-day moving average remains a big resistance level. The Fed is largely expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points at its FOMC meeting next week, a step down from its four straight 75-basis-point interest rate hikes. Last week's strong November jobs report and continued resilience in quarterly GDP data shows that the economy is holding up well despite the Fed's near-400 basis points of interest rate hikes made so far this year.
Employers, not surprisingly, hate that people are using job offers as bargaining chips. That strategy may work for employers in a normal job market, when it's hard to find another job, let alone a better-paying one. "Employees are finding that there's a big gap between where they are and what they can get." "The job market is still performing very well," says Jay Denton, the chief analytics officer at LaborIQ, a compensation-data provider. Independence, it turns out, pays way, way better than loyalty.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren slammed "improper stock trading" among Fed officials. On Monday, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding what she called "egregious and embarrassing ethics breaches by top officials at the Federal Reserve System," referring to reports of "improper" stock trading by officials behind closed doors. The scandals predate the October findings — in September 2021, for example, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was found to have made multiple stock trades in 2020, along with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. He declined to comment on any pending investigations of Fed officials. Along with looking into potential ethics breaches within the Fed, Warren and other Democratic lawmakers have also raised concerns with the tactics the Fed is using to fight inflation.
With housing affordability deteriorating, home prices are due to fall, says Dave Meyer. The BiggerPockets housing market expert said he expects a decline of up to 10% in prices. "Houses are just not affordable at these prices with these interest rates," Meyer said. Either mortgage rates would have to skyrocket, he said, or housing prices would have to continue on their torrid pace upward. Morgan Stanley strategists said in late September that they expect home price growth to end 2023 at -3% year-over-over.
The consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Reuters is that GDP grew at an annualized pace of 2.1% in the third quarter. (This will be the first estimate for third-quarter GDP, and there will be several revisions in the coming weeks.) That also means the Fed will likely continue to sharply raise interest rates to finally choke off inflation once and for all. Those rate hikes helped cause a so-called double-dip recession, where the economy suffered two downturns between 1980 and 1982. In other words, the much-hoped-for “soft landing” for the economy could turn out to be a pipe dream.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic violates conflict of interest rules
  + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAtlanta Fed President Bostic violates conflict of interest rulesCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Closing Bell' to report on breaking news that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, violated the Treasury's conflict of interest rules, and that Fed Chair Powell has asked watchdogs to review Bostic's disclosures for inadvertent violations.
President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael W. Bostic speaks at a European Financial Forum event in Dublin, Ireland February 13, 2019. The Federal Reserve is looking into trades that Raphael Bostic, the head of the central bank's Atlanta district, made during restricted periods. Fed Chair Jerome Powell "has asked the Office of Inspector General for the Federal Reserve Board to initiate an independent review of President Bostic's financial disclosures," a Fed spokesman said. Trading by Fed officials over the past several years has been a hot-button issue. The controversy also led to a revised policy that severely restricts the moves Fed officials can make.
Morning Bid: Core beliefs
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. And that core inflation rate is forecast to have higher again in September to 6.5% from 6.3%. Ten-year Treasury yields have risen about 60bp to just under 4%, the S&P500 (.SPX) has lost more than 10% and the dollar (.DXY) has boomed almost 5%. Worryingly for Tokyo, the latest G7 finance ministers statement mentioned nothing about currency market ructions. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Inflation fight can avoid deep pain, Atlanta Fed president says
  + stars: | 2022-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael W. Bostic speaks at a European Financial Forum event in Dublin, Ireland February 13, 2019. REUTERS/Clodagh KilcoyneWASHINGTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Sunday he still believes the U.S. central bank can tame inflation without substantial job losses given the economy's continued momentum. ... We are going to do all that we can at the Federal Reserve to avoid deep, deep pain." The Fed on Wednesday approved its third consecutive three-quarter point interest rate increase and issued projections that showed rates rising higher, and staying there longer, than investors had anticipated. The United Kingdom proposed tax cuts seemed to put fiscal policy at odds with efforts by the Bank of England to tame inflation with interest rate increases.
President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael W. Bostic speaks at a European Financial Forum event in Dublin, Ireland February 13, 2019. Bostic believes that the Federal Reserve can achieve its goal of 2% inflation without severely damaging the economy. "I do think that we're going to do all that we can at the Federal Reserve to avoid deep, deep pain." Bostic recognized that there will likely be job losses as a result of the Fed's actions. And so I actually think that there is some ability for the economy to absorb our actions," Bostic said, noting "considerable job growth" in his bank's hometown of Atlanta.
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The economic news is mixed: Inflation and interest rates are high, but the job market looks solid. It's possible that the Fed manages to cool off the economy and tame inflation without causing a spike in unemployment, said Flowers. "The outlook isn't as rosy as it was," Nick Bunker, the head of economic research at the jobs platform Indeed. If the thought of an economic downturn makes you fear for your job, you're not alone. Mentor someone else in your organization — if you're relatively new on the job yourself, take a student intern under your wing.
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