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☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ Fed’s Goolsbee says ‘more sniffing’ may be needed before rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Kelli Grant | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.

Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul

☆ U.S. economy will see 'more things break' in 2025 if rates stay high, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024. The U.S. economy could be headed for stormy waters in 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not take action soon on interest rates, State Street's head of investment strategy in EMEA said Tuesday. "The traditional transmission policy mechanism has broken, or doesn't work as well," Kassam told "Squawk Box Europe." As such, the impact of, for example, sustained higher interest rates may not be felt until further down the line when they come to refinance. "For now, consumers and corporates aren't feeling the pinch of higher interest rates," he added.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Altaf Kassam, Kassam Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ Fed Chair Powell says there has been a 'lack of further progress' this year on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 13, 2023. Since July 2023, the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 23 years. Powell added that until inflation shows more progress, "We can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." The comments follow inflation data through the first three months of 2024 that has been higher than expected. The benchmark 2-year note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, briefly topped 5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 basis points.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Fed, Treasury Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Canada

☆ Fed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, meeting minutes indicate
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowFederal Reserve officials at their March meeting expressed concern that inflation wasn't moving lower quickly enough, though they still expected to cut interest rates at some point this year. "Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent," the minutes said. In what apparently was a lengthy discussion about inflation at the meeting, officials said geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices remain risks that could push inflation higher. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024. That part of the discussion was partly relevant considering the release came the same day that the Fed received more bad news on inflation.

Persons: FOMC, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, U.S . Federal, Federal, Committee, Reuters Locations: China, U.S, Washington , U.S

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

Hopeful homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for at least a couple more months. If inflation eases in the coming months and the Fed is able to start cutting its benchmark rate, mortgage rates should drop as expected. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York

☆ Wall Street gets key inflation data next week amid concerns the stock market is overbought
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the March consumer price index will show prices rising by 0.3% on a monthly basis, less than February's 0.4% advance. Similarly, the March producer price index is expected to show an increase of 0.5%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Monday April 8 Tuesday April 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (March) Wednesday April 10 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/06) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index PPI Earnings: CarMax Friday April 12 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April) Earnings: State Street , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Progressive , Citigroup

Persons: Stocks, we're, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, FactSet, David Einhorn, CNBC's Scott Wapner, he's, Michelle Bowman, Bank's Tom Hainlin, Hainlin, Jamie Myers, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury Bond, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, . West Texas, Treasury, Fed, Investment Group, Investors Intelligence, American Association of, Walmart, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Index, Treasury Budget NSA, Air Lines, Price Index, Progressive Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan

☆ The Fed's timing for interest rate cuts won't have anything to do with the presidential election, Powell says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it's still too soon to feel confident in cutting interest rates. But he emphasized that the timing for any rate cuts will not have anything to do with the election. The discussion comes after the Fed maintained its interest rate level in its most recent decision in March. While the Federal Open Market Committee forecast three interest rate cuts in December, Powell said on Wednesday that it'll take more data for the Fed to feel confident enough to implement that relief. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, Trump, Powell, —, Sundhar Pinchai Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Stanford's Business, Government, Society Forum, Google, Fed, Federal, Business

☆ Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live at Stanford policy conference economic forum
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday to the Stanford Business, Government and Society forum. But he also said the timing isn't certain and policymakers need more evidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% goal. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday he thinks there could be just one cut this year, though his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee have indicated three. Markets expect the Fed to start down the path of easing in June or July, with a total of three cuts coming by the end of 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Steve Eisman Organizations: Stanford Business, Government, Society, Atlanta Fed, Federal, Read, Fed, CNBC, YouTube

☆ CNBC Daily Open: A projection is not a promise
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineU.S. Federal Reserve officials are dampening rate cut expectations again, and again. In comments echoing those of the Federal Open Market Committee's two weeks ago, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she expects cuts this year — but wants to see more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued. "Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise," Daly said.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Mary Daly, Daly, Loretta Mester, Vishnu Varathan, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Federal, Malaysian, U.S Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Japan

Average 30-year mortgage rates ticked up above 6.50% for the first time in more than a week, according to Zillow data. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.11% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester, Mester, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron

☆ Fed's Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government and Society Forum at Stanford University on April 03, 2024 in Stanford, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he added. "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell said. The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Justin Sullivan, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Cleveland's Loretta Mester Organizations: Bank, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Stanford University, Getty, Federal, Market, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Group Locations: Stanford , California

☆ Fed's Mester still expects rate cuts this year, but rules out May
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Tuesday she still expects interest rate cuts this year, but ruled out the next policy meeting in May. Should that continue, rate cuts are likely, though she didn't offer any guidance on timing or extent. While looking for rate cuts, Mester said she thinks the long-run federal funds rate will be higher than the long-standing expectation of 2.5%. After the March meeting, the long-rate rate projection moved up to 2.6%, indicating there are other members leaning higher. Mester noted the rate was very low when the Covid pandemic hit and gave the Fed little wiggle room to boost the economy.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Market Locations: Cleveland

☆ Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually in February, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the Fed looks at both measures when making policy, it considers core to be a better gauge of long-term inflation pressures. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation; core PCE inflation hasn't been below that level in three years. Inflation pressures came more from the goods side, which rose 0.5%, compared to the 0.3% increase for services. That countered the trend over the past year, during which services rose 3.8% while goods actually fell by 0.2%. Along with the inflation increase, consumer spending shot up 0.8% on the month, well ahead of the 0.5% estimate, possibly indicating additional inflation pressures.

Persons: Dow Jones, Victoria Greene Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, G Squared, Wealth, CNBC, PCE, Federal, Market

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, Feb. 16, 2024. Kosuke Okahara/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets were set to fall Tuesday as the U.S. market took a breather following a rally sparked by optimism over the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance at its latest meeting. "We're coming off of a post-FOMC high," he told CNBC, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week. "The market is getting more and more vulnerable to a market decline or a pullback in prices." Investors in Asia also await economic data out of Southeast Asia, including Singapore's manufacturing output and Thailand's trade balance.

Persons: Kosuke Okahara, Sam Stovall Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group Inc, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Federal, CFRA Research, CNBC, U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Getty Images Asia, Pacific, U.S, U.S ., Asia, Southeast Asia

☆ Premarket stocks: Rate cut in June or July? What matters is the Fed wants to get started
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

[About 70% of investors now think a rate cut will occur in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.] Goldman Sachs is currently predicting a 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, down from 35% last year. Seeing that happen made us more confident that the Fed wouldn’t be forced to cause a recession in order to get inflation down. The reason we say 15% risk is because that is roughly the historical unconditional average. So a 15% recession rate is baseline for you, it will never go below that number?

Persons: Dow, Bell, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, It’s, it’s, we’ve, I’m, Samantha Delouya, authority’s, ” United, Joe Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs ’, Bell, National Bureau of Economic, FAA, United, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, United Boeing, ”, Federal Communications Commission, Program, Lawmakers, ACP, FCC Locations: New York, We’re, Medford , Oregon

☆ There's still no certainty the Fed will be able to pull off three interest rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In that case, the Fed may have to push cuts out until the end of the year, confounding market expectations. If so, then the nonpolitical monetary policy committee might postpone considering rate cuts until after the November presidential elections," Yardeni wrote last week. "That could be the first rate cut decision of this year," Yardeni said. "We maintain our expectation of just two rate cuts this year , in July and December," economists at Nomura said in a client note. Clarida also noted that if the Fed judged inflation by the consumer price index instead of its preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, "we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nomura, Richard Clarida, Clarida Organizations: Yardeni Research, Fed, Market, CNBC

☆ Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida sees possibility of fewer rate cuts than expected this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank's former vice chair said Friday. "If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts," Clarida said. A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022. "What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate," Clarida said. "Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting.

Persons: Richard Clarida, Jerome Powell, Clarida, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Commerce Locations: Atlanta

☆ Consumers frustrated by the economy might never get the relief they're ultimately hoping for
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-20 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In today's big story, we're looking at why the economy has most consumers feeling like they are stuck in place . A "trapped in place" economy is in full swing. Bad buying conditions coupled with everyday high prices means consumers can't make any major life changes , writes Business Insider's Emily Stewart. But it's not the only area of the economy that's stuck, Emily writes. So, while consumers lament being stuck in place, they should also avoid getting stuck looking to the past.

Persons: —, Rebecca Zisser, Emily Stewart, it's, Emily, gunning, It's, Jerome Powell's, Tyler Le, Steve Mnuchin, Brian Moynihan, Instagram, Jensen Huang, Chelsea Jia Feng, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Federal, Wall Street, Investors, Blackstone, JPMorgan, MLB, Bank of America, mojo, Nvidia, Astera Labs, NASDAQ Locations: It's, Chelsea, New York, London

☆ The Fed still probably isn't ready to give Americans the interest rate cuts they're hoping for
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Still, the door is open for rate cuts later in the year. AdvertisementThe nation's central bank is gearing up to make its second interest rate decision of the year, and it probably won't be the relief many Americans want to see. AdvertisementStill, while Americans may not see an interest rate cut this month, they could see one later on this year. But I still think interest rate cuts of one form or the other are likely this year." A group of Democratic lawmakers are also urging Powell to develop a timeline in which Americans can expect to see rate cuts.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, Powell, there's, we've, Nick Bunker, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Congressional Progressive Caucus — Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed, Financial Services Committee, North America, Democratic, Congressional Progressive Caucus

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters is seen beyond the cherry blossoms in Tokyo on March 20, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open Monday as investors brace for a week of central bank meetings. The U.S. Federal Reserve will start its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. A Reuters poll of economists is expecting the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5%. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 4.35% when it concludes its meeting on Tuesday.

Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, Open, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Pacific, Europe

☆ European stocks set to open slightly higher as markets look ahead to Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a lackluster start to the new trading week, with global investors looking ahead to the next monetary policy meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed will start its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday with a police decision due the next day. A Reuters poll of economists is expecting the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5%. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei 225 index led gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Monday, while China shares extended gains after data showed its economy kicked off the year on a strong note. U.S. stock futures climbed on Monday morning.

Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Open, Nikkei Locations: Asia, Pacific, China

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