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China optimism is surging. Why some investors are cautious
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A shareholder at a securities hall in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province in east China, on Sept. 24, 2024. "Markets should place more emphasis on the specifics of the stimulus," Lu said. The People's Bank of China this week cut major interest rates, and announced plans to lower rates for existing mortgage holders. Questions about scaleFor some investment institutions, that's still not enough to move the needle on their China outlook. A survey in September of more than 1,200 companies in China by the U.S.-based China Beige Book found that corporate borrowing declined, despite historic lows in the costs to do so.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Ting Lu, Lu, Nomura's Lu, that's, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Shehzad Qazi, Qazi Organizations: Getty, BEIJING, Shanghai, Nomura, People's Bank of, Finance, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, U.S Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China, Wells Fargo, U.S . Federal, U.S
Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC's " Street Signs Asia " Friday that the index could rise by another 10%. But she cautioned that more details on Beijing's recent economic stimulus measures were needed for a sustained rally. Chinese stocks rose further after Beijing on Thursday called for halting the real estate slump and a strengthening of monetary and fiscal policy. He said he's bought more Chinese stocks since. "After the break, we would really like to see as soon as possible the execution details on the physical spending and on the market stabilization measures," Wang said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Laura Wang, Wang, Morgan Stanley, CNBC's, Goldman Sachs, David Tepper, he's Organizations: CSI Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Beijing
China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China. Sluggish domestic demand, a prolonged housing downturn and rising unemployment have weighed on the world's second largest economy. In August, China's industrial activity, retail sales and urban investment all grew slower than expected, with retail sales rising by barely more than 2% and industrial production by 4.5% from a year ago. The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, an uptick from 5.2% in the previous month.
Persons: China's, Xi Jinping, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, People's Bank of China Locations: China's, Jiangsu, China, Beijing
Barclays has identified a handful of European stocks poised to benefit from China's anticipated economic stimulus measures. Mainland Chinese stocks jumped on the news. The investment bank suggested that China's current economic climate resembles April 2024, when Chinese and China-exposed stocks experienced a significant rally. According to Barclays, U.K.-headquartered insurer Prudential , cosmetics giant L'Oreal , carmakers BMW and Mercedes , and miner Rio Tinto are among the top European stocks that could benefit from China's stimulus efforts. China's recent economic challenges have been evident, with the country experiencing its longest period of deflation since 1999.
Persons: Anshul Gupta, Larry Hu, Hu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Barclays, People's Bank of China, Prudential, L'Oreal, carmakers BMW, Mercedes, Rio Tinto, U.S, Prudential plc, Macquarie Locations: China, Rio, China's
Authorities "must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery," the readout said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. The readout said leaders called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support, and touched on a swath of issues from employment to the aging population. Just days after the U.S. cut interest rates, the People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced a slew of planned interest rate cuts and real estate support. This real estate policy is aiming at reducing its drag on the economy." Tempering growth expectationsThe meeting readout said China would "work hard to complete" the country's full-year economic targets.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Zhiwei Zhang, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Yue Su, Zong Liang, Zong, Bruce Pang Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Communist Party, People's Bank of China, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Locations: Yuexi County, Anqing, Anhui province, China, BEIJING, Hong Kong, U.S, Beijing, JLL
China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."
Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco
The Chinese yuan has weakened sharply against the U.S. dollar in the last several weeks as the greenback strengthens and investors worry about China's economic growth. China's yuan hit its strongest level in over 16 months on Wednesday after Beijing unveiled a slate of stimulus measures to shore up the slowing economy on Tuesday. The Chinese offshore yuan strengthened briefly to 6.9946 per dollar, the strongest since May 2023. China's onshore yuan is currently trading at 7.0319 against the greenback, also holding at the strongest levels since last May. China bonds rallied after the PBOC announcement with 10-year and 30-year yields hitting record lows.
Persons: Ben Emons, Edmund Goh, Zerlina Zeng, CreditSights, Pan Gongsheng, Emons, Hong, — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: U.S, Beijing, greenback, Fed Watch, BNP, U.S ., Asia Credit, People's Bank of China Gov, CSI Locations: China, abrdn, Hong Kong, London, Singapore, New York
Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China ING, called the repo rate cut announcement “the most important” move made during the news conference. “If we see a large fiscal policy push as well, momentum could recover heading into the fourth quarter.”The headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. During his first news conference as central bank governor in January, Pan said the PBOC would cut the reserve requirement ratio. Unlike the Fed’s focus on a main interest rate, the PBOC uses a variety of rates to manage monetary policy. Pan has indicated he would like the 7-day rate to become the main policy rate.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Lynn Song, , , Jiang Qiming, ” Edmund Goh, Goldman Sachs, Li Yunze, Li, Nomura Organizations: People’s Bank of China Gov, China ING, , U.S . Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, China News Service, Getty, Pan, National Financial Regulatory Administration Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, abrdn
The relatively rare high-level press conference was scheduled after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. That kicked off an easing cycle that theoretically gives China's central bank further room to cut its rates and boost growth in the face of deflationary pressure. Pan became PBOC governor in July 2023. He then told reporters in March, alongside China's annual parliamentary meeting, there was room to cut the RRR further. China's government system also means that policy is set at a far higher level than that of the financial regulators speaking Tuesday.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Gongsheng, Pan Organizations: People's Bank of China, BEIJING — People's Bank of China Gov, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019. BEIJING — China's Ministry of Commerce said Tuesday it was launching a probe into Calvin Klein-parent PVH Group over alleged business disruptions around its Xinjiang supply chain. China's Commerce Ministry on Tuesday did not state why it was probing PVH now, but said the U.S. retail group had 30 days to respond. U.S. defense companies that previously landed on the "unreliable entities" list are barred from China-related imports or exports. PVH did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment outside of U.S. business hours.
Persons: Calvin Klein, PVH Organizations: Bund, BEIJING — China's Ministry of Commerce, PVH Group, Huawei, U.S . Commerce, U.S, The U.S . Commerce Department, Monday, China's Commerce, CNBC Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Xinjiang, Russia, U.S
Local residents with umbrellas walk out of a metro station in rain during morning rush hour on September 20, 2024 in Beijing, China. China News Service | China News Service | Getty ImagesBEIJING — More economists are calling for China to stimulate growth, including those based inside the country. His presentation Saturday at Renmin University's China Macroeconomy Forum was titled: "A basket of stimulus and reform, an economic revitalization plan to substantially expand domestic demand." "The elephant in the room is the property market," said Xu Gao, Beijing-based chief economist at Bank of China International. To restore confidence and stabilize the property market, Xu said that policymakers should bail out the property owners.
Persons: Liu Shijin, Liu, Goldman Sachs, China's, Xu Gao, Xu, Nomura, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Yi Gang, Wildau, Yi Organizations: China News Service, Getty, Development Research, State Council, CNBC, China Macroeconomy, Goldman, Bank of China International, Center for, People's Bank of China Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, Renmin, Center for China, U.S
Smart glasses, many with components made in China, are emerging as an up-and-coming category as the fall consumer technology product season gets underway. Snap has revealed augmented reality glasses ; Meta is expected to do so at its own event starting Sept. 25. The Facebook-parent's Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses are already seeing traction, HSBC's Frank He, head of technology hardware research for mainland Chinese stocks, pointed out in a report earlier this month. The roughly $300 Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses allow users to take pictures, short video clips, listen to music and interact with Meta's AI features, according to promotional materials. For the year through July, the optical company's non-smartphone camera module shipments surged about 61%, which HSBC attributes to "brisk sales" of Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses.
Persons: parent's Ray, Frank He, Sunny, Ray, Sunny Optical's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: HSBC, Ray, U.S, Hong, JPMorgan, HK Locations: China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, Europe, U.S, Friday's
BEIJING — Many of Apple’s affluent iPhone users in China are just as interested in Huawei’s pricier trifold phone, CNBC found during spot checks at stores Friday, the day the iPhone 16 and Mate XT launched in the country. The iPhone 16 Pro Max starts at $1,199, and the iPhone 16 at $799. Huawei’s trifold Mate XT starts at the equivalent of more than $2,800. The Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max was selling for 10,500 yuan to 16,300 yuan, the site showed. He said he bought the iPhone 16 because he heard its battery lasted longer, but was willing to wait for the iPhone 17 for any artificial intelligence features.
Persons: pricier, Max, Huawei’s, Yang, Wang, hadn’t Organizations: CNBC, XT, Huawei, Apple, People, Mate Locations: BEIJING, China, . U.S, Beijing, Hefei, Shanghai
Pictured here is an Apple flagship store in Beijing, China, on the day of the iPhone 16 launch on Sept. 20, 2024. The iPhone 16 Pro Max starts at $1,199, and the iPhone 16 at $799. Huawei's trifold Mate XT starts at the equivalent of more than $2,800. The Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max was selling for 10,500 yuan to 16,300 yuan, the site showed. Earlier in the day, the listed resale Mate XT price was 19,000 yuan, while the Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max was selling for 9,999 yuan, the site showed.
Persons: pricier, Max, Huawei's Organizations: Apple, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, XT, Huawei Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, . U.S
Binance CEO Richard Teng speaks in Singapore on Sept. 17, 2024, at an event hosted by the local foreign correspondents association. Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has seen a 40% increase this year in institutional and corporate investors joining the platform, CEO Richard Teng told CNBC's Lin Lin in an interview Wednesday. "So we on our own, we are seeing a huge uptick in terms of institutional and corporate investors. We have seen a 40% increase in onboarding in that category throughout the course of this year alone," he said. Changpeng Zhao, the billionaire co-founder and former CEO of Binance, stepped down last year as part of the settlement.
Persons: Richard Teng, Binance, CNBC's Lin Lin, Teng, Changpeng Zhao, Organizations: U.S Locations: Singapore, Changpeng
Chinese electric car company Nio launched its lower-cost brand Onvo on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, in Shanghai, China. HEFEI, China — There's yet another Chinese electric car aiming to undercut Tesla , with a steeper discount. Onvo, the lower-priced brand launched by premium electric car company Nio , announced its first car, the L60 SUV, would start as low as 149,900 Chinese yuan ($21,210) when buying battery services via a monthly subscription, starting at 599 yuan. Nio shares briefly rose by more than 3.5% in U.S. trading Thursday after the Onvo L60 launch. When Nio launched the Onvo brand in May, the company said the L60 would start selling at 219,900 yuan versus Tesla 's Model Y at 249,900 yuan.
Persons: Nio, Tesla, Mona, Max Organizations: Mona Locations: Shanghai, China, HEFEI
Local governments in China are still building highways, bridges and railways, as pictured here in Jiangxi province on Sept. 6, 2024. That's cutting significantly into local government revenue, especially at the district and county level, according to S&P Global Ratings analysts. watch now"Macroeconomic headwinds continue to hinder the revenue-generating power of China's local governments, particularly as related to taxes and land sales," she said. Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang — some of China's top provinces in tax and non-tax revenue generation — see non-tax revenue growth exceeding 15% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024, S&P's Huang said. China's national taxation administration in June acknowledged some local governments had issued such notices but said they were routine measures "in line with law and regulations."
Persons: Huang, P's Huang, Camille Boullenois, Laura Li, Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Robin Xing Organizations: Getty, BEIJING, Global, CNBC, NingBo BoHui Chemical Technology Locations: China, Jiangxi, Beijing, Zhejiang, NingBo, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Asia
By extension, the move in Washington, D.C. could also spell good news for Chinese stocks. High U.S. interest rates relative to China have made it fairly straightforward for global institutions to pick U.S. Treasurys over Chinese stocks. More than lower rates needed Other global investors say Chinese stocks need more than easier monetary policy to become truly attractive. The "government can push interest rates down, but if households don't want to spend the extra income, it won't go into the economy," he said. Earlier this year, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng acknowledged U.S. Fed easing would create room for China to further cut interest rates.
Persons: Steven Sun, Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley, Aaron Costello, Yi Gang, Costello, James Wang, Wang, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC, HSBC Qianhai Securities, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Cambridge Associates, CNBC, People's Bank of China, UBS Investment Bank Research, UBS, Hang Seng China Enterprises, China Southern Airlines, Hengli Petrochemical, Saudi, Aramco Locations: China's, Washington ,, China, 1H24, Asia, U.S, Beijing, Hang, Shenzhen, Shanghai
BEIJING — China's retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in August all grew slower than expected, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Saturday. Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the January to August period, slower than the forecast of 3.5% growth. The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, an uptick from 5.2% in July. The youth unemployment rate in July was 17.1%.
Persons: Liu Aihua Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Investment, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Hangzhou, China, BEIJING
U.S. firms say confidence in China has hit an all-time low
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Dylan Butts | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
American companies in China are experiencing historically low business confidence and poor profits amid U.S.-China tensions and a slowing Chinese economy. Firms have also lost market share to Chinese competitors which have received more government support, the U.S.-China Business Council added. Their struggles in China have also been felt by EU businesses, according to an EU Chamber of Commerce in China report released on Wednesday. On how the U.S. government could support their firms in China, nearly half of AmCham respondents suggested a reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods. Foreign direct investment into China fell by 29.6% during the January to July period compared to a year ago, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
Persons: Allan Gabor, Jeff Yuan, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: U.S, American Chamber of Commerce, U.S ., China Business Council, China Business, EU, of Commerce, China's Ministry of Commerce Locations: Shanghai, American, China, Washington, Beijing, U.S, PwC China
A banner plays up China's trade-in policy at a home goods expo in Qingdao, Shandong province, China, on June 1, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's plan to boost consumption by encouraging trade-ins has yet to show significant results, several businesses told CNBC. Analysts are not overly optimistic about the extent to which the trade-in program could support retail sales. China's retail sales for August are due Saturday morning. Retail sales in June rose by 2%, the slowest since the Covid-19 pandemic, while July sales growth saw a modest improvement at 2.7%.
Persons: Jens Eskelund, Tao Wang, Sally Loh, Otis, Kone, We've, Ilkka Hara, Hara Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, CNBC, EU Chamber of Commerce, UBS Investment Bank, China, U.S, Otis Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, Greater China
Kai-Fu Lee, chairman and chief executive officer of Sinovation Ventures, speaks during the HICOOL Global Entrepreneur Summit on September 11, 2021 in Beijing, China. BEIJING — Chinese artificial intelligence models may be at least half a year behind those developed in the U.S., but Chinese AI apps will likely take off much faster, said Kai-Fu Lee, former head of Google China. The top Chinese companies' LLMs are about six to nine months behind their U.S. counterparts, while less advanced Chinese models may lag the U.S. by about 15 months, Lee said. Lee, author of "AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,“ is a widely followed commentator on AI, and is the founder of startup 01.AI as well as venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures. "Apps, I would predict, by early next year will proliferate in China much faster than in the U.S.," Lee said, noting that the cost of training a good AI model has fallen significantly.
Persons: Kai, Fu Lee, Lee Organizations: Sinovation Ventures, Summit, Google, Equity Forum China Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, U.S, Google China, Silicon Valley
Edgar Su | ReutersBEIJING — European businesses in China have grown so discouraged with the outlook for operating in the country that Beijing must act if the companies are to invest further, according to the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. "We do believe actually that we are in sort of a tipping point situation. Foreign direct investment into China fell by 29.6% during the January to July period versus a year ago, according to China's Ministry of Commerce. Such changes are part of Beijing's pledges to reduce what it calls the negative list, a collection of industries off-limits to foreign businesses in the country. However, Eskelund said such developments, while encouraging, did not move the needle enough for European businesses, especially when members' optimism on profitability in China for the next two years is at an all-time low.
Persons: Edgar Su, Jens Eskelund, Eskelund Organizations: of, Initiative, Reuters, EU Chamber of Commerce, China's Ministry of Commerce Locations: Beijing, China, Reuters BEIJING, Growth
BEIJING — China's exports rose by 8.7% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms in August, according to the customs agency. That was higher than the forecast for growth of 6.5% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, according to a Reuters poll. Imports grew by 0.5%. In July, exports rose by 7% from a year ago, while imports increased by a more-than-expected 7.2%. China's imports from Russia fell by 1%, while exports rose by 10%, the data analysis showed.
Organizations: Union and Association of Southeast, Nations, EU, CNBC, Imports, ASEAN Locations: Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China, BEIJING, U.S, Russia
Richard Yu, a Huawei executive director overseeing consumer products, reveals the price for the company's trifold Mate XT smartphone on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. BEIJING — Chinese smartphone company Huawei said Tuesday its trifold smartphone will start at the equivalent of more than $2,800. That's the same day Apple's new iPhone 16 series is due to launch in stores, including in China. On Monday stateside, Apple announced its iPhone 16 Pro Max will start at $1,199, and the iPhone 16 at $799. iPhone 16 users as well as those of the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max can use the new functions.
Persons: Richard Yu, Max, XT Organizations: Huawei, Apple, Apple Intelligence Locations: BEIJING, China
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