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☆ The key question for markets is whether the Israel-Hamas conflict is contained: Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe key question for markets is whether the Israel-Hamas conflict is contained: Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and geopolitical tensions, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge Locations: Israel

☆ These three things happening now usually 'break something' in markets, El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors face a triple threat that in the past have been consistent with trouble, economist Mohamed El-Erian said Monday. "Historically, those three things happening break something ," El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz and president of Queens' College Cambridge, said during a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "They tend to break something in the financial system, and the market concern is that we haven't even finished with interest rate risk." US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yield - YTD The U.S. bond market was closed Monday for Columbus Day. "The big question for the markets and for the economy is whether you get escalation," El-Erian said.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: U.S ., Allianz, Queens ' College Cambridge, CNBC, Columbus Day Locations: Gaza, Treasuries, Israel

☆ The odds the US will avoid a recession may be dwindling, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US's chances of avoiding a recession just got smaller, according to Mohamed El-Erian. The New York Fed has priced in a 56% chance of a recession happening by September 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two reasons why America's odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. There is a material risk of this leading to higher inflation for a broader range of goods and services," El-Erian wrote. "While markets are adjusting fast to higher rates, that of the real economy is at much earlier phase with now a much bumpier road ahead."

Persons: Mohamed El, —, Erian, there's, they've Organizations: New York Fed, Service, Allianz, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, West Texas, Energy, of Labor Statistics Locations: El, Brent

☆ Mohamed El-Erian: This is a time when you need the supply side to be more flexible
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian: This is a time when you need the supply side to be more flexibleMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest economic and market trends, why he thinks the recent government shutdown drama narrows the scope for the type of legislation needed to maintain high economic growth and genuine financial stability, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ Gas prices look like they'll get better — but not before getting worse first
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But there are signs that both supply and demand will bring prices back down in the coming months. AAA reported this week that the average price for a gallon of gas in the US was $3.88. AdvertisementAdvertisementAn atypical spike in pricesThe increase in gas prices is unusual, as we typically see some relief after the summer surge as demand wanes. If true, the worries about the impact of rising gas prices on consumer spending and inflation are overblown. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn recent years, with oil prices closer to $70 a barrel, gas prices have typically been close to $3 a gallon.

Persons: Mohamed el, Saudi Arabia's, Mohamed Oun, there's, Jorge León, Mike Wirth, we've, hasn't, Wirth, Grace Smith, David Kelly, We're, Kelly, Citi's, Ed Morse Organizations: Service, AAA, Allianz, Saudi, Reuters, Rystad Energy, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chevron, Bloomberg, Denver, MediaNews, Getty, Morgan Asset Management, Citigroup, CNN Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Wall, Silicon, California, Clearwater Beach, Tampa , Florida, Libya, Ukraine, Brazil, Canada, Venezuela, Guyana

☆ The Fed needs to decide if it wants to crush the economy to get inflation back to its target rate, famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

By the end of the year, the Fed will choose between the economy and its inflation target, Mohamed El-Erian said. The central will decide if it can tolerate inflation at 3% or higher — above its 2% target. Or the Fed will choose to "crush" the economy to reach its long-standing goal, he told CNBC. "The Fed at the end of the year is going to have a choice: You live with 3% or higher inflation, or your crush the economy," he said, adding that he hopes the Fed doesn't crush the economy. Though central bankers are officially aiming to lower inflation to a 2% long-run target, doing so could spark a severe downturn for the US economy, El-Erian has previously warned.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: CNBC, Service, Reserve, Allianz, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, El

☆ Headline inflation will prove 'much more' complicated to fight, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHeadline inflation will prove 'much more' complicated to fight, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's 'last mile' of the inflation fight, how quickly the Federal Reserve needs to get to its 2% inflation target, and what the market should recognize.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Federal Reserve

☆ The Fed won't raise interest rates this month but rising oil prices could spur a future increase, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed won't raise interest rates at its next meeting, but could leave the door open for future increases, Mohamed El-Erian said. A stronger-than-expected US economy and rising oil prices are key reasons why further hikes could be on the table. Over the past six quarters, the Fed has hiked interest rates from near-zero levels to upward of 5% in a bid to cool historically high inflation. Further more, higher oil prices are also adding to the Fed's inflation problem, El-Erian noted. Crude oil prices have creeped back up toward $90 a barrel – the highest level in 2023 – as global producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, continue to extend output cuts in order to maintain price stability.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, it's Organizations: Service, Queen's College , Cambridge, CNBC, Allianz, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ China may never become the world's biggest economy and has thrown out its old playbook, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's highly unlikely that China will implement large-scale stimulus, Mohamed El-Erian said. Without it, markets shouldn't expect China's previous rate of growth to come back, he wrote in the Financial Times. "Despite what many may continue to tell you, it is no longer a given that China will become the world's largest economy." After China lifted pandemic restrictions late last year, the economy saw a brief rebound early this year. Despite what many may continue to tell you, it is no longer a given that China will become the world's largest economy."

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, That's, — Organizations: Financial Times, Service, supercomputing, Bloomberg Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, El

☆ Fed will not raise rates this month but will keep door open for one future hike, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will not raise rates this month but will keep door open for one future hike, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the El-Erian's take on the Federal Reserve's moves after recent economic data, the bigger thread to the U.S. economy, and if the economy's setup for stagflation.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, El, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ The Economy Is in a Pretty Good Place, After All - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. economic policy in 2021 was met with a firestorm of criticism from many economists. I’m not talking just about Republican loyalists, who always predict disaster when a Democrat moves into the White House. But the economy has defied that dire prediction. If the policy choices of 2021 did any lasting damage, it’s invisible in the data. So let’s talk about where the economy is now, and ask what, if any, lasting damage the Biden administration’s early policy may have done.

Persons: I’m, Larry Summers, Obama, Biden’s, we’ve, ” Mohamed El Organizations: Republican, Democrat, Democratic, Federal Reserve, Biden

☆ Powell signals no retreat, no surrender
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walks in Teton National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole economic symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26, 2022. There's no doubt that the U.S. central bank is nearing the end of its mission to wrestle down inflation. Headline consumer price pressures are rapidly abating, thanks to a wholesale retreat in food and energy prices. "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," he said. This week, investors get a dose of top-tier data to help shape their view on the Fed's next move.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, Amanda Cooper, it's, Mohammed El, Erian, payrolls, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Futures Trading, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Dallas Fed, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S

☆ The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may have broken the US housing market, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. That's because interest rate hikes have helped drive up mortgage rates, weighing on both supply and demand. High rates have frozen the housing market over the past year by crimping both supply and demand. AdvertisementAdvertisement"When you go from record-low mortgage rates to levels that we haven't seen for almost 20 years, you've destroyed both demand and supply. That is the way you destroy the housing market," El Erian said.

Persons: Mohamed El, you've, El Erian, We've Organizations: Service, Allianz, CNBC, Mortgage News Daily, US Locations: Wall, Silicon, El

☆ We're now in a world where it's about the supply side, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're now in a world where it's about the supply side, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Fed Chair Powell's speech from Jackson Hole, latest market trends, inflation outlook, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El, Jackson Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

But residents also said the area was a place where jobs were hard to come by, drugs were prevalent and encounters with the police could be fraught. On Wednesday evening, Mr. Duprey, 30, was on a motorbike, fleeing narcotics officers who were attempting to arrest him, the police said, when a sergeant, Erik Duran, threw a cooler at him. Mr. Duprey lost control of the bike, hitting a tree and a car before the bike toppled over and he fell to the ground, a surveillance video reviewed by The New York Times shows. On Friday, the New York City medical examiner’s office ruled Mr. Duprey’s death a homicide. In the days since, Mr. Duprey’s family has disputed the Police Department’s account, and protesters have called for criminal charges against the sergeant who threw the cooler.

Persons: Eric Duprey, Duprey, Erik Duran, Duprey’s, Stephanie Keith Organizations: The New York Times, New, Police Locations: Bronx, New York City

☆ Asking the Fed to adjust its inflation target would be like waving a Pride flag at a DeSantis rally, Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Paul Krugman has long been a critic of the Fed's 2% inflation target, and suggests the goal be bumped up to 3%. But central bankers' reaction to such suggestions is similar to what "you'd get if you waved a Pride flag at a DeSantis rally," he says. It's not the first time that Krugman has called for a 3% inflation target. But economist Mohamed El-Erian disagrees – warning there's no chance the Fed will calibrate its inflation target, even though it's a strong argument. AdvertisementAdvertisement"So yes, there's a theoretical argument for a higher inflation target, but don't look for chair Powell to touch that issue in any significant way," he added.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman, we'd, Ron DeSantis, I've, It's, Jason Furman's, Mohamed El, it's, Erian, Powell, Jerome Powell's Organizations: New York Times, Service, Florida, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Paul Krugman and Mohamed El-Erian are divided over the Fed's inflation target ahead of Powell's speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Paul Krugman backed calls for the Fed to change its inflation target to 3% – but Mohamed El-Erian says there's little chance of that happening. The two economists voiced their views ahead of Fed chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. "It is very hard for a central bank to change an inflation target when it has been missing it so consistently," El-Erian said. The two economists' comments come ahead of Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech at the 2023 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday. "It is very hard for a central bank to change an inflation target when it has been missing it so consistently," El-Erian told CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Mohamed El, there's, Jackson, Erian, Jerome Powell's, Jason Furman's, Krugman, it's, Powell Organizations: Service, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Don't expect Fed Chair Powell to adjust the inflation target, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't expect Fed Chair Powell to adjust the inflation target, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what investors are likely to hear from Powell's Jackson Hole speech, any changes to the inflation target, and his thoughts on China's economy.

Persons: Powell, Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El, Powell's Jackson Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Gramercy, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ Stocks in China fall as consumer prices drop for the first time in more than 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A vegetables stall in the Haizhu area of Guangzhou, China, in May 2023. Stocks in China and Hong Kong fell Wednesday as China's consumer prices slipped into negative territory in July, for the first time in 28 months. The CSI300, which tracks stocks of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell 0.22%. Mainland Chinese markets were lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component 0.28% lower. Producer price index fell 4.4% in July compared to a year ago, more than the 4.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Persons: Hong Kong, China's, Mohamed El, Kospi, Australia's Organizations: Shenzhen, Reuters —, Reuters, Allianz, Twitter, Nikkei Locations: Haizhu, Guangzhou, China, Stocks, Hong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Asia, Pacific

☆ US gas prices are surging to their highest level since October 2022 – and economists are warning of an inflation 'smile'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US gas prices are on the rise again, stoking concerns that it could fuel inflation. The average gallon of gas traded at $3.89, its highest level since October 2022. The average gallon of gas traded at $3.89, its highest level since October 2022, per AAA. The surge in gas prices comes amid rising oil prices, largely spurred by supply cuts by key producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said the spike in oil prices were a threat to his optimism about US inflation.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve, AAA, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Allianz Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fitch-induced sell-off is nothing to panic over
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 02, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks sell-offAll major U.S. indexes sank Wednesday as investors digested news of the U.S.'s lower credit rating. [PRO] S&P 500(0)Fitch Ratings may have lost confidence in the U.S.'s creditworthiness, but analysts are still bullish on the stock market.

Persons: Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, —, Fitch Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, U.S, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Fitch, Global, JPMorgan, Former U.S, Allianz, China New, Qualcomm Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S, It's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Don’t worry about the Fitch-induced sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 02, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] Value picks in the S&P 500A common complaint about the S&P 500 now is that it's too expensive. But there are still pockets of value in the index, CNBC Pro's Bob Pisani says.

Persons: Stocks, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Jamie Dimon, Dow Jones, Bob Pisani Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, U.S, Nasdaq, Mining, Fitch, Global, Former U.S, Allianz, JPMorgan Chase, Labor Department, Qualcomm Locations: New York City

☆ Jamie Dimon, Larry Summers blast Fitch's shock US downgrade as 'ridiculous' and 'bizarre and inept'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Fitch's downgrade of the US government's credit score on Tuesday has come as a shock to markets. Here's how 8 top voices have reacted, including Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett and Larry Summers. But the decision of a credit rating agency today, as the economy looks stronger than expected, to downgrade the United States is bizarre and inept," Summers said in a post on X. Fitch rating services down grades US credit rating from AAA to AA+. I strongly disagree with Fitch's decision, and I believe it is entirely unwarranted," Yellen said.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett, Larry Summers, Fitch, Berkshire Hathaway, Treasurys, Buffett, Dimon, Jeenah, Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Brace, Janet Yellen, Patrick Semansky, Yellen, Mark Haefele, Haefele Organizations: AAA, Service, Biden, Wall, Berkshire, CNBC, JPMorgan, Allianz, Fitch, AA, Fed, Treasury, AP, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Silicon, U.S, United States, States

☆ 'Shark Tank' star Kevin O'Leary says US debt-rating downgrade means there's less faith in the dollar and Treasurys
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Fitch's US credit-rating downgrade means there's less faith in the dollar and Treasury bills, Kevin O'Leary said. This will push sovereign wealth funds to be weary of holding greenbacks, he told Fox News. Doesn't matter: the more the government goes into deficit spending, the more rating agencies scrutinize the quality of that debt," O'Leary said. This is the second downgrade the US has ever received, preceded by S&P Global's 2011 downgrade. Effectively, the lowered rating also means a higher cost of borrowing for the US, which deepens federal deficit spending.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, Fitch, O'Leary, That's, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon, Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: Treasury, Fox News, Service, US Treasury, AAA, AA, Wall, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon, America

☆ U.S. debt downgrade sinks global markets — but economists are not concerned
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Global stock markets tumbled on Wednesday after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating — but top economists say there is nothing to worry about. U.S. stock futures were sharply lower after the downgrade, pointing to a fall of almost 300 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the Wednesday open on Wall Street. Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the downgrade as "outdated." Phillips said the downgrade "should have little direct impact on financial markets as it is unlikely there are major holders of Treasury securities who would be forced to sell based on the ratings change." Harvey noted that, ahead of the 2011 S&P downgrade, stocks were in correction territory, credit spreads were widening, rates were falling, and the global financial crisis "was still in the market's collective conscience" — whereas the conditions today are "almost the opposite."

Persons: Fitch, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Summers, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, Phillips, Wells, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Mark Mobius, they've, CNBC's Organizations: United, AAA, Dow Jones, U.S ., Allianz Chief, Treasury, Wells Fargo Securities Head, Equity, CNBC, ., Mobius Capital Partners Locations: United States, London, Asia, Pacific, Wells Fargo, U.S

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