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☆ ECB needs to keep interest rates 'sustainably high' to combat inflation - Lagarde
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jesús Aguado | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary ECB boss says bank needs to be 'courageous' to control pricesLagarde hints at more tightening despite critical momentMADRID, May 19 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank needs to keep interest rates high to curb inflation in the medium term, its president Christine Lagarde said on Friday, signalling more monetary tightening. The ECB slowed the pace of rate hikes this month with a 25-basis-point rise, but Lagarde indicated the cycle was not over. "We still have to have sustainably high interest rates, so it's a time when we have to really buckle up and look at this target that we have and deliver on it," Lagarde told Spanish state television TVE. The ECB has a medium term inflation target of 2%. Lagarde, who did not elaborate on potential further hikes, said: "Our goal is simple and straightforward: price stability.

☆ ECB may need to raise rates for longer than anticipated: Kazimir
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, May 9 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates for longer than currently anticipated, and September could be the earliest moment when policymakers can judge whether past rate hikes have been effective, ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday. The ECB has lifted rates at each of its past seven meetings to fight a historic surge in consumer prices and policymakers have signalled further hikes to come as inflation pressures continue to build. "Based on today's data, we will have to keep raising interest rates for longer than anticipated," Kazimir, Slovakia's central bank chief, said in a blog post. The ECB sees inflation falling under 3% by the final quarter of this year, then taking almost two more years to ease back to its 2% target. "The development of core inflation, the continued buildup of wage pressures, and high-profit margins call for vigilance and reconfirm the need to continue on our path," Kazimir said.

☆ ECB policymakers promise more hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The essence of the effort has been done, although there will probably be a few more rate hikes," Villeroy told French broadcaster Radio Classique. Villeroy explained Thursday's smaller rate increase by saying higher rates were beginning to have an effect on inflation. And two ECB surveys also published on Friday showed economists had cut their inflation forecasts for this year and the next - to 5.6% and 2.6% respectively - and that companies were moderating the pace of price hikes. The ECB aims to bring inflation back to 2% by 2025, "maybe even by the end of 2024", he added. "We will keep rates high for a sufficiently long time to get inflation back to 2%," the Lithuanian central bank chief said.

☆ European shares rise on smaller ECB rate hike, upbeat earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Shubham Batra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies STOXX 600 index up 0.1%Adidas jumps on upbeat earningsEvotec drops on leaving MDAXMay 5 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Friday, as the European Central Bank's smaller rate hike, and market-beating results from Adidas and Apple boosted sentiment. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) edged up 0.1%, but is on track for its second consecutive weekly loss. Energy (.SXEP) and utilities shares (.SXPP) led the gains on the index, rising 1.4% and 1.0% respectively, while food and beverage shares (.SX3P) slid 0.4%. "Inflation pressures worldwide help in driving equity markets although we don't like to pay higher prices, as consumers it eats into our pockets. The higher prices go to some company reaping the rewards of those higher prices," said Chi Chan, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst, Federated Hermes.

☆ Euro zone inflation could hold above target -ECB survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, May 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation could be lower in the coming years than previously expected but may stay above the European Central Bank's 2% target further out, the bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters showed on Friday. The ECB's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, a key input in policy deliberations, now sees 2023 inflation at 5.6%, down from 5.9% expected three months ago, while the 2024 projection was cut to 2.6% from 2.7%. Expectations for underlying inflation were only lifted for 2023, however, and all future projections remained unchanged, including the 2% reading in the "longer term". The survey also sees a faster decline in unemployment than the previous survey with the rate falling to 6.8% this year versus 7% seen previously. At 6.5%, unemployment is already far below this reading, however, and ECB policymakers are concerned that the labour market is getting overheated, prolonging high inflation.

☆ Dollar falls after Fed signals pause; banking woes dent confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Additional tightening may be needed ... but the FOMC does not appear to be pre-committing to another rate hike on June 14." The U.S. dollar index was last 0.12% lower at 101.11, after dropping more than 0.6% in the previous session. "There are a lot of concerns in the U.S. around the banking sector and the crunch on credit. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The European Central Bank (ECB) comes under the spotlight next, where expectations are for ECB policymakers to raise interest rates for the seventh meeting in a row later on Thursday.

☆ All ECB policymakers but one approve small hike with more to come -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Austria's Robert Holzmann was the sole holdout as the euro zone's central bankers decided on a 25-basis-point rate increase, but he lacked voting rights due to a scheduled rotation on the ECB's Governing Council, the sources said. Holzmann did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and an ECB spokesman declined to comment. Some policymakers, they said, privately anticipate at least two if not three more hikes by the ECB, which has already raised rates seven times since last July by a total 375 basis points. Policymakers at Thursday's meeting were unanimous that the ECB should not sell bonds under its APP even after it stops replacing those that mature in July, the sources said. Reporting By Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt, editing by Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil slips on weak China data and rate hike expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday on weak economic data from China and expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) this week. Brent crude fell 42 cents, or 0.53%, to to $78.89 a barrel by 1037 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 46 cents, or 0.61% to $75.20. Price pressure followed official data on Sunday showing manufacturing activity in China, the world's top crude importer, fell unexpectedly in April. Investors will look for market direction from expected interest rate hikes by inflation-fighting central banks, which could slow economic growth and dent energy demand. A poll on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles, meanwhile, are expected to have fallen for a third consecutive week, providing some oil price support.

☆ Euro zone inflation picks up but core unexpectedly slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FRANKFURT, May 2 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation accelerated last month but underlying price growth eased unexpectedly, adding to arguments for a smaller interest rate hike at the European Central Bank's regular policy meeting on Thursday. Overall price growth in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency picked up to 7.0% in April from 6.9% a month earlier, Eurostat said on Tuesday, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists. Excluding volatile food and fuel prices, core inflation slowed to 7.3% from 7.5%, while an even narrower measure, which excludes alcohol and tobacco, slowed to 5.6% from 5.7%, coming below forecasts for 5.7% for its first decline since last June. In a hopeful development for the ECB, processed food, alcohol and tobacco inflation slowed a full percentage point to 14.7%, suggesting that a long-awaited turnaround in food prices may now be happening. Services inflation accelerated to 5.2% from 5.1% but the price growth of non-energy industrial goods, another crucial segments, slowed to 6.2% from 6.6%.

☆ Euro zone economy ekes out 0.1% growth in first quarter, misses expectations as Germany stagnates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The print came in below analyst expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists previously forecasting quarterly growth of 0.2%. The economy expanded by 1.3% on an annual basis, just missing an outlook of 1.4%. Earlier this month, statistics agency Eurostat had revised down its fourth-quarter 2022 gross domestic product estimate for the euro zone from 0.1% quarterly growth to zero, following 0.4% expansion in the third quarter. The slight first-quarter growth signal comes as economic performance contends with persistently high inflation. Irish GDP was a notable weak spot, declining by 2.7% on the previous quarter, while Portugal's economy grew by 1.6%.

Persons: Arne Dedert, Carsten Brzeski, Destatis, Emmanuel Macron's Organizations: Getty, Eurostat, ING, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Ukraine, Germany, Europe

☆ European shares fall as banking sector jitters eclipse upbeat earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Shubham Batra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 0.7%, as regional banking stocks (.SX7E) dropped 1.2%. Earnings from Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Google's parent Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) beat expectations, but recessionary worries in the world's largest economy kept investor sentiment fragile. Shares of Swiss banking software company Temenos AG (TEMN.S) jumped 10.2% after it reported first-quarter earnings above consensus. Meanwhile, ASM International NV (ASMI.AS) fell 10.0% after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported a drop in first-quarter orders, citing softening market conditions, despite an estimate-beating revenue. Dassault Systemes SE (DAST.PA) slid 7.4% after the French software maker reported first-quarter numbers broadly in line with estimates but with a miss on software licenses.

Companies European Central Bank FollowLONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - France's central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau has pushed back against criticism of central banks' increasing involvement in the fight against climate change, calling the issue a "must have" focus. "Central banks' core mandate worldwide is price stability, and climate change already affects the level of prices and activity," Villeroy stressed. The debate about how much influence central banks can have in tackling climate issues has become increasingly divisive this year. Villeroy, however, who has long been a firm advocate of doing more, urged central banks and others to come up with better models of how climate change is likely to alter economies. It is also aiming to release short-term climate change scenarios by the end of 2024, which should show more adverse developments, incorporate tougher "shocks" and directly explore the potential impacts of climate change on inflation.

The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.

☆ Core euro zone inflation edges up in March, keeping ECB on alert
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But ECB policymakers are now getting worried that high energy costs have seeped into the broader economy and linger in everything from services to wages, making inflation more difficult to tame. The ECB's main worry is that services inflation, now at 5.1%, is simply too quick and could be signalling that wages are becoming a key problem as services prices are predominantly determined by labour costs. Another issue is that food inflation keeps accelerating and this has an oversized impact on consumers' inflation perception, potentially changing spending behaviour and pressuring wage demands. Unprocessed food inflation picked up to 14.7% last month from 13.9% in February. But this rate is inconsistent with the ECB's 2% inflation target, so disinflation could be painfully slow.

☆ ECB market rate bets: still some unfinished business for the hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Having firmly scaled-back rate expectations amid last month's market turmoil, investors no longer expect borrowing costs to stay higher for longer and are cautious about pricing in a deposit rate above 4%. The November 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forward rose to 3.65% on Wednesday, implying expectations for a deposit rate of around 3.75%. Citi meanwhile argued that the June ESTR or money market contract was less appealing from a hedging standpoint while markets were pricing a peak of 3.75%. bundfuturevolBut Bund futures volumes declined after March 15 as markets once more revised their rate expectations upwards. This means that the smaller the gap between the current benchmark rate and the expected rate, the lower the volatility, and vice versa.

☆ Risks to European economy remain tilted to the downside, ECB policymaker says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRisks to European economy remain tilted to the downside, ECB policymaker saysOlli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, says risks remain to the downside in Europe. Regarding the ECB's forthcoming interest rate decision, he says that it must "carry on and act consistently."

☆ ECB policymaker says choice between 25 or 50 basis points rate hike in May will be close call
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB policymaker says choice between 25 or 50 basis points rate hike in May will be close callBoris Vujčić, governor of the Croatian National Bank, discusses Croatia joining the euro, the next European Central Bank rate hike decisions and the continued challenge of inflation.

☆ Banking crisis forces ECB policymakers to rethink rate hikes, but focus still firmly on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A sign for the European Central Bank (ECB) outside the bank's headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymakers are reconsidering the path of interest rate hikes in light of last month's banking turmoil, but remain committed to reining in core inflation. However core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — rose to an all-time high of 5.7%. But he said policymakers will be examining the data for signs that core inflation is coming down and the bank's medium-term inflation target of 2% is within sight. So yes we are worried about the core inflation not yet peaking," Scicluna said.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ECB has raised rates by at least 50 basis points each at six successive meetings -- the fastest pace on record -- to fight stubbornly high inflation. The sources said that some are advocating no change in May - mostly the same Southern European policymakers who did not support last month's 50 basis point increase, while others - also a small group - argue for another 50 basis point hike. Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said it was unclear whether 50 basis points would be needed or if 25 was enough. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir said the ECB could perhaps slow down the pace of its increases while Austria's Robert Holzmann meanwhile backed another 50 basis point move. Markets currently price 25 basis point hikes each in May and June, while a third such increase is fully priced in by September.

☆ ECB’s Kazaks says risk of not doing enough to tackle inflation is higher than doing too much
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB’s Kazaks says risk of not doing enough to tackle inflation is higher than doing too muchMartins Kazaks, governor of the central Bank of Latvia and ECB policymaker, shares his views on the fight against inflation and says more interest hikes will be necessary.

☆ Core inflation to start improving before summer break - ECB's Nagel
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - Core inflation rates in the euro zone will begin improving in the coming months, but the European Central Bank still has a way to go with monetary policy, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Thursday. "We expect core inflation will show first movements in the right direction before the summer break," the head of Germany's central bank said on the sidelines of an International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington. He cited encouraging inflation data from the United States as showing that central banks' interest rate hikes are working. However, the United States began its rate hike cycle earlier, Nagel said, adding that he expected the ECB's tightening cycle to be continued. While inflation in the euro zone dropped by the most on record in March, a measure that excludes energy and food prices, known by economists as core inflation and seen as a better gauge of the underlying trend, accelerated.

☆ ECB policymaker says a 50-basis-point rate hike 'could be in the ballpark' at its next meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB policymaker says a 50-basis-point rate hike 'could be in the ballpark' at its next meetingRobert Holzmann, ECB policymaker and governor of the Austrian National Bank, told CNBC that if the economic outlook changes, the central bank will change its approach to interest rates.

☆ Exclusive: ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May , sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Signs that bank lending is decreasing amid rate hikes, ECB policymaker says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSigns that bank lending is decreasing amid rate hikes, ECB policymaker saysConstantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus and European Central Bank policymaker, says there is evidence that bank lending is softening as a result of ongoing interest rate hikes. However, he adds that the terminal rate for ECB hikes remains data dependent.

☆ Explainer: Oil price surge changes ECB narrative only at the margins
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The following examines how higher crude prices - which jumped around 5.5% on Monday following the OPEC+ decision - could impact ECB policy. IS AN OIL PRICE SURGE INFLATIONARY? Part of the issue is that high energy prices slow growth further out and thus become deflationary because they reduce households' and businesses' purchasing power. "The case for more ECB rate hikes is still intact," UniCredit said in a note. If high energy prices spook the Fed, rate-cut bets will unwind and push up the dollar.

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