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Rolling lockdowns seriously dented household incomes, leading many to reduce spending, which in turn resulted in less tax revenue for local governments. “China’s runaway local debt poses a serious threat to the country’s overall economic health and will weigh heavily on China’s still-nascent recovery,” said Singleton. Debt that is backed by local governments but which doesn’t show up on their balance sheets could be much bigger. That’s more than 20% higher than the estimate of 53 trillion yuan made by Goldman Sachs in 2021. Their debt squeeze could pose a serious threat to China’s financial system, particularly to small regional banks.
Washington, DC CNN —Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May, a sign that lower mortgage rates are bringing some buyers back into the housing market. The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, improved by 2.5% from November to December, according to data released Friday from the National Association of Realtors. Pending sales dropped in the Northeast, where the index was down 6.5% in December from November; and in the Midwest, where the index was down 0.3%. Pending sales were up 6.1% in the South in December from November and rose 6.4% in the West. “Mortgage applications have been trending higher alongside lower rates, pending home sales are up, and builder confidence increased in January,” Kushi said.
Minneapolis CNN —For the second month in a row, consumers said they are feeling better about the economy. The University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer sentiment index measured 64.9 for January, according to data released Friday. A separate report released earlier on Friday showed that consumers cut back on their spending in December and started stashing more in their savings as they prepare for a potential recession. Long-run inflation expectations held at 2.9%, according to the report. “Consumers continued to exhibit considerable uncertainty over both long- and short-term inflation expectations, indicating the tentative nature of any declines,” Hsu said in comments accompanying the report.
Tech firms went on a hiring spree. “Over the past two years we’ve seen periods of dramatic growth,” CEO Sundar Pichai said in an email to employees. The crypto brokerage announced in early January that it’s cutting 950 people – almost one in five employees in its workforce. Departments from human resources to the company’s Amazon (AMZN) Stores will be affected. They’re not in heavy people expansion mode every year,” CEO Andy Jassy said in a memo to employees.
CNN —The polar bear was just a faraway speck in a frozen white expanse. “It’s the price we pay to get unique images,” recounts award-winning French photographer and filmmaker Florian Ledoux. Florian LedouxThe months when the sun just starts to poke through create the perfect palette for a photographer, Ledoux says. Yet these are the days Ledoux lives for. Disney, Netflix or the likes will request a specific shot of a polar bear, such as a successful hunt or a mating scene.
Persons: speck, , Florian Ledoux, Florian Ledoux Ledoux, Ledoux, “ That’s, hasn’t, Florian, Florian Ledoux “ Organizations: CNN, Disney, Nature, Netflix, Oceanographic Magazine Locations: Tromsø, Norway, Longyearbyen, Svalbard
Minneapolis CNN —As inflation continues its slow and steady descent, consumer sentiment is climbing back out of a trough hit last year. The University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer sentiment index rose to 64.6 in the preliminary January survey, according to data released Friday. The survey also showed consumers’ inflation expectations for this year and five years out were 4% and 3%, respectively. The year-ahead inflation expectations reading is at its lowest since April 2021. Inflation expectations are crucial data points for the Federal Reserve.
Inflation Is Turning the Corner
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Greg Ip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
December’s consumer price data add to a picture of inflation, across a broad range of definitions, coming down. In fact, just as the U.S. got used to thinking high inflation could be here to stay, signs are emerging that most of the surge through 2021 and the first half of 2022 was actually transitory—as Federal Reserve officials first thought.
U.S. inflation eased to 6.5% in December compared with a year earlier, marking the sixth straight monthly deceleration since a mid-2022 peak. The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose at its slowest pace since October 2021, the Labor Department said Thursday. December’s annual inflation rate was down from 7.1% in November and well below a 9.1% peak in June.
US deficit widens by $85 billion in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Minneapolis CNN —The US government recorded a deficit of $85 billion in December, bringing the total deficit to nearly $1.42 trillion for the 2022 calendar year, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The government, which runs on a fiscal year that starts in October, is running a deficit of $421.41 billion for its fiscal first quarter of 2023, a 12% increase from the fiscal first quarter of 2022, Treasury data shows. December’s deficit was nearly four times as large as the $21.3 billion deficit recorded in December 2021 as spending grew and revenue fell last month. Receipts totaled $454.94 billion, while outlays were $539.94 billion in December 2022. The House Republicans’ rules package adopted earlier this week included measures aimed at reining in federal government spending and keeping a lid on taxes.
New York CNN —Investors are holding their breath in anticipation of Thursday morning’s Consumer Price Index inflation report — arguably the most important piece of economic data so far this year. There’s a lot riding on the outcome — if inflation keeps falling, that could support a market rally, while higher-than-expected inflation could send stocks sinking. Asian stocks enter bull market as investors bet on ChinaUS stocks may be volatile, but in Asia markets are soaring. The retreat will likely cause Wells Fargo to lay off at least some employees, though the bank did not announce any specifics. The move comes as Wells Fargo continues to be in trouble with regulators.
Powell is set to participate in a panel discussion on central bank independence at an event hosted by Sweden’s central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank. It will also be attended by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel, among others. That has enabled the Fed to start easing back on the size of its historically high rate hikes meant to cool the economy and fight rising prices. These three central banks are fighting in different conditions, but they share a similar battle strategy: Keep tightening. Thursday’s Consumer Price Index for December — which will be the new year’s first check on inflation — will also provide helpful clues to investors about whether US price hikes are sufficiently cooling.
The US economy added 223,000 jobs in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Minneapolis CNN —The US economy added 223,000 jobs in December, according to the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, capping a year of extraordinary job growth and marking the second-best year for the labor market in records that go back to 1939. Economists were expecting 200,000 job gains for the last month of the year, according to Refinitiv. December’s job total is lower than the downwardly revised 256,000 jobs added in November. Including last month’s gains, which are subject to revision, the economy added close to 4.5 million jobs in 2022. That’s the second-highest-ever total, after the 6.7 million jobs added in 2021 — a boomerang from 2020’s 9.3 million job losses.
[1/2] A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., July 19, 2021. December’s BofA Global Research survey showed fund managers were the most overweight bonds versus stocks in nearly 14 years. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have climbed over 40 basis points since mid-December to nearly 3.9%, the highest in over a month. At the moment, the Treasury market “is more focused on inflation still than … recession," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Matthew Nest, head of active global fixed income at State Street Global Advisors, believes yields will likely fall in 2023.
That will mark its seventh and final painful hike of the year, albeit a smaller one than the last four historically high three-quarter point increases. Investors will be paying close attention to these forecasts for clues about the path of rate hikes in the new year and beyond. Now the opposite is true, the dots have become a signal that interest rates will remain elevated into the future — spooking investors and Fed watchers alike. Back in December 2021, the Fed was only expecting rates to finish this year at about 0.9%. What else: Wednesday will also bring the Fed’s latest forecasts for the unemployment rate and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
CNN —December’s full moon, also known as the “cold moon,” will shine bright in the night sky this Wednesday, peaking at 11:08 p.m. December 7 also marks the 50th anniversary of NASA’s Apollo 17 mission launch — the last time humans set foot on the moon. Moon observingThe full moon will make its way across the sky starting at sunset. It was the final mission of NASA’s Apollo program and brought the number of humans who have walked on the moon to a grand total of 12. Apollo 17 was the final lunar landing mission in NASA's Apollo program.
Or they feature commercial characters from media juggernauts, imbued with predetermined personalities and storylines that encourage children to copy, not create. Yet bestselling toys — as distinct from best — are too often those that are most advertised to kids; digitally enhanced or linked to popular media characters; or both. Companies that profit hugely from licensed characters have a vested interest in preventing children’s creative play — and stifling their creativity. Toys that promote creativity are less likely to be huge moneymakers because they can be used repeatedly in lots of different ways. These toys seem to be made with a kind of planned obsolescence, so new ones will soon be needed.
New York CNN Business —Fed decision day is here — and so is some potential bad news for the market. Part of that was thanks to solid corporate earnings: Companies from GM to Coca-Cola reported strong profits and sales for the third quarter. We’ve been here before: This isn’t the first time investors rushed into markets on the belief that there would be a Fed pivot. Investors are seemingly addicted to the highs and lows of any perceived shifts in the Fed’s thinking, leaving markets excessively volatile. What’s more, only 66 companies have gone public so far this year, down more than 80% from a year ago.
Analysts now see third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 4.1%, up from 2.5% on Thursday, according to Refinitiv data. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, all but consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD), weighed down by Amazon shares, ended the session green. Third-quarter reporting season has passed the halfway point, with 263 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. The S&P 500 posted 32 new 52-week highs and eight new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 117 new highs and 115 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.26 billion shares, compared with the 11.53 billion average over the last 20 trading days.
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