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☆ Dollar slips vs euro on upbeat German business morale data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationNEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro as upbeat German business morale data supported the common currency, while a modest improvement in investors' appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the safe-haven dollar. German business morale rose more than expected in December as the outlook for Europe's largest economy improved despite the energy crisis and high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 % to $ 1.06085 , not far from the six-month high of $1.0737 touched last week. "I think the dollar is generally softer on slightly higher risk-on trading," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.

☆ Stocks steady, yields rise as rate risks cloud 2023 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

By 1152 GMT, the index was broadly unchanged after a heavy week for rate increases on Friday sent it to its lowest point since Nov. 10. Long-term borrowing costs rose for a fourth straight session and short-dated yields remained not far off their highest levels in more than a decade. It wreaked havoc even on rate markets," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 4 basis points (bps) to 3.522%. Gold inched 0.1% higher at $1,764 an ounce, as a softer dollar countered pressure from expectations of higher U.S. rates.

Summary Global stocks index up 0.1%Japan could tweak inflation target - sourceshttp://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgnhttp://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVhMILAN, Dec 19 (Reuters) - World stocks inched higher on Monday but stayed near 6-week lows as investors started the year's last full trading week still mindful of interest rate hike risks to the economy in 2023. By 0902 GMT, the index rose 0.1% after a heavy week for interest rate increases on Friday sent it to its lowest point since Nov. 10. It wreaked havoc even on rate markets," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. "Except for the BOJ and perhaps the Bank of England, there's little confidence in the other central banks. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.05% to a six-week low and the yen rose 0.5% to 135.9 per dollar.

☆ Morning Bid: No Messi magic for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaSoccer fans enjoyed an extraordinary final of the World Cup on Sunday as high emotion and intense drama gave way to Lionel Messi leading Argentina to victory against France in a penalty shootout. Global markets are devoid of any such drama as investors hunker down ahead of interest rate hikes by the world's top central banks and reconcile with weak economic growth. Asian stocks edged lower on Monday, taking the edge off festive cheer, while the yen strengthened on a possible move by the Japanese government to unveil a more flexible inflation target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed will deliver more interest rate hikes next year even as the economy slips towards a possible recessionAnd while the European Central Bank eased the pace of its interest rate hikes, it stressed significant tightening remained ahead as it fights runaway inflation. Rate increases in Europe are here to stay.

☆ Morning Bid: Yen for change
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But even though the BoJ is unlikely to change that stance at this week's policy meeting, some change appears to be afoot next year as central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda ends his second five-year term in April. In numbers due for release on Thursday, Japan's core consumer price inflation rate is expected to have ticked up to 3.7% last month. That said, futures markets still aren't buying Fed policymaker indications that official rates will go above 5% and stay there all next year. After closing at their worst levels in over a month on Friday, U.S. stocks are set for a steadier open today. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ECB will hike rates further, we do not know when will stop, De Guindos says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MADRID, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will hike interest rates further in the euro zone to combat high inflation, ECB's Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Monday. "There will be more interest rate hikes, until when, I don't know. I am absolutely honest, I don't know," De Guindos said, adding that the institution was committed to bring inflation down to its 2% mid-term goal. On Thursday, the ECB eased the pace of its interest rate hikes but stressed significant tightening remained ahead and laid out plans to drain cash from the financial system as part of a dogged fight against runaway inflation. Reporting by Jesús Aguado; editing by Emma PinedoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

There's a reason investors are warned not to fight the Fed, but sometimes they still need to learn the hard way. When the second most powerful central bank in the world is standing shoulder to shoulder with the Fed too, markets are bound to get a bloody nose. And this is the economy into which central banks around the world are still jacking up interest rates? Annual core CPI inflation is expected to inch up to 3.7% in November from 3.6% in October, marking a fresh 41-year high. Will there be a Santa rally, even a mini one, in the last week before Christmas?

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar on the jobs line
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Tracking yields lower, the dollar is heading towards the weekend down heavily on the yen for the week and eyeing smaller losses on the euro and most other currencies. The next test is Friday morning's U.S. jobs report, where a downside surprise could rip the dollar down further. Stock buying, rocketing local rates and the retreat in the dollar also seem to have finally given a bid to the Hong Kong dollar , which has bounced from the weak end to the middle of its trading band. Limits on withdrawals from a $69 billion unlisted Blackstone trust after large redemptions hint at losses and stresses in global portfolios. People familiar with the matter said most of the redemptions came from Asian investors needing the cash.

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 29 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. They also cheered a relaxation of regulations on developer fundraising that eases the smouldering property sector bust. A crackdown on demonstrations happened simultaneously, with Chinese authorities making inquiries into some protesters as police flooded the city's streets. Strikingly, hawkish Dutch central banker Klaus Knot also said forecasts of recession may be overdone and fears of "overtightening" policy were a "joke". His boss European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation, which is expected to ease this month but remain above 10%, has not yet peaked, encouraging speculation of another swingeing 75 basis point interest rate rise next month.

☆ Morning Bid: Hangover
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell more than five basis points to an eight-week low of 3.65%. COVID and inflation kept a cap on things elsewhere - with core consumer prices rising at their fastest clip in 40 years in Tokyo truly a sign that inflation is everywhere. China on Friday reported another record high of daily COVID-19 infections and the Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 0.7%. Consumer confidence surveys in France and Germany, and final German GDP data headline an otherwise quiet calendar in Europe, while holidays will likely thin U.S. trade into the weekend. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:German GDP, French and German consumer surveys, speeches by ECB policymakers Kerstin and de GuindosReporting by Tom Westbrook Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Take Five: Everything to play for
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are hopeful the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes. The U.S. economy likely created 200,000 new jobs, a Reuters poll of economists forecasts found, in what would be the smallest gain since December 2020. Manufacturing indicators, mainly PMIs, due next week might attest to the weakness already seen across the economy. Inflation in the euro zone was 10.6% in October, more than five times the European Central Bank's 2% target. Indeed, the Fed may be getting ready to slow the pace of its rate hikes, but the ECB is not there yet.

Market betting has been swinging between a 50- and a 75- basis-point increase when policymakers meet on Dec. 15. "It's extremely exciting but predicting the ECB for a market participant has become impossible," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said. That saves it from more painful changes of tack after ECB President Christine Lagarde went from all but ruling-out rate hikes this year to presiding over the steepest tightening cycle in the euro's history. But Lane said in a blog post on Friday it may "overstate" how persistent inflation may be. "Inflation is being driven by factors they can't control," he added, citing energy prices, geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions as some of them.

☆ ECB's Schnabel pushes back on smaller rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

However Schnabel, the most influential voice in the hawkish camp, said this was premature and could even prove counter-productive. "Incoming data so far suggest that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited, even as we are approaching estimates of the 'neutral' rate," she told an event in London. "The extraordinarily large degree of uncertainty surrounding such estimates implies that they cannot serve as a yardstick to inform the appropriate pace of interest rate adjustments. Dutch governor Knot expressed doubts over market expectations for the ECB's deposit rate, currently at 1.5%, to peak at 3%. In all honesty, I'm not sure about that," Knot told a hearing at the Dutch parliament.

☆ Morning Bid: COVID vs RRR
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu:Another central bank pivots. This has aided the risk-on mood in the market, with Asian shares mostly advancing and U.S. dollar broadly weaker. The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting showed a "substantial majority" of policymakers reckon it will "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of rate hikes. China's COVID infections hit a record high, with Beijing, which has the strictest rules, failing to contain the spreading virus. "In our view, ending zero COVID as soon as possible is the key to raising credit demand and bolstering growth."

☆ ECB will keep raising rates despite recession risk in euro zone, De Guindos says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MADRID, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates until it brings inflation down to around its 2% mid-term goal even though the euro zone economy is heading towards recession, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday. De Guindos did not elaborate on the magnitude of the potential next interest rate rise in December but said it would depend on upcoming ECB projections and inflation readings in November. The ECB has raised its rate on bank deposits from minus 0.5% to 1.5% in three months. He also said that an economic deceleration or recession would not by itself reduce the high level of inflation. "It is very possible that in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year we will have negative growth rates," De Guindos said.

☆ Euro zone growth will likely be negative in Q4, inflation high, ECB's De Guindos Says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MADRID, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy will likely show negative growth rates in the fourth quarter while inflation will still remain high before starting to slow down in the first quarter, European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday. Reporting by Jesús Aguado; editing by Emma PinedoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ European shares hold near 3-month highs as business activity slowdown eases
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Europe-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1% to its strongest level since Aug. 19. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, nudged up to 47.8 in November from the previous month. Traders have currently priced in a 77% chance that the U.S. central bank will hike rates by 50 basis points in December. The European Central Bank will release its own meeting minutes on Thursday. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said the central bank will keep raising interest rates until it brings inflation down to around its 2% mid-term goal.

☆ ECB must keep inflation fight as top priority, de Guindos says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must prioritize its fight against high inflation because that will in turn improve the currency bloc's overall financial stability, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday. "It's very difficult to have financial stability without price stability," he told a news conference. "I think that the main risk now for financial stability, for growth, is to have inflation at very high levels." Critics have said that rapid rate hikes by the ECB are fuelling market volatility and exacerbating a downturn, so the ECB's own actions may be harming stability. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ECB will do 'whatever is necessary' to get inflation to 2%, vice president says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

De Guindos told CNBC the ECB will do "whatever is necessary" to tame inflation. It is crucial for the European Central Bank to convey its commitment to bringing prices down in order to keep inflation expectations anchored, according to its vice president. Luis de Guindos told CNBC's Annette Weisbach on Wednesday that the main risk of a wage-price spiral was the perception that the central bank's credibility was not strong enough. "That's why we are making such a commitment with price stability … and that we will do whatever is necessary in order to reduce inflation to the level that we consider as price stability, which is 2%," he said. Euro zone inflation is running at 10.7%, the highest level in the bloc's history, and the ECB has hiked its benchmark rate to 1.5%, a level not seen since 2009, before the sovereign debt crisis.

☆ ECB will do 'whatever is necessary' to get inflation to 2%, says Luis de Guindos
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB will do 'whatever is necessary' to get inflation to 2%, says Luis de GuindosThe European Central Bank's vice president tells CNBC's Annette Weisbach it is crucial to prove its credibility and anchor inflation expectations by signalling a commitment to bringing down prices.

☆ Euro zone wages finally rising but inflation expectations muted, ECB VP says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Euro zone wage growth may finally be picking up but longer-term inflation expectations are still anchored around the European Central Bank's 2% target, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday. "Incoming wage data and recent wage agreements indicate that wage dynamics may be picking up, which warrants continued monitoring," de Guindos said in a speech. "However, to date, inflation expectations have remained anchored." De Guindos added that the ECB would continue to raise interest rates, proceeding "with prudence", to get inflation back to target, even if this process takes an "extended" period. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi Editing by Gareth JonesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ EU backs watering down of final Basel bank capital rules
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - European Union member states have backed a temporary watering down and two-year delay to 2025 for the final leg of the globally agreed Basel III bank capital rules, the Czech EU presidency said on Tuesday. EU states will now negotiate a final deal with the European Parliament in early 2023. Most of the Basel III rules, a set of tougher capital rules for banks after the global financial crisis more than a decade ago, have already been implemented. EU ministers backed a two-year delay to the start date for rolling out the final rules, pushing it back to January, 2025. Smaller banks would benefit from simpler disclosure, and EU states pushed back against attempts at stricter EU harmonisation in checking whether top bank staff are 'fit and proper'.

☆ ECB to continue raising rates even as economy suffers
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The ECB has been raising interest rates at record pace and steering investors towards more hikes ahead to bring double-digit inflation in the euro zone back to its 2% target. ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos and Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said this involved costs in terms of economic growth. "Because in a situation where monetary policy gets behind the curve, the overall economic costs would be significantly higher," Nagel said. De Guindos said this so called quantitative tightening had to be done "with a lot of prudence" but it might start while the ECB is still raising rates. Markets expect the ECB to continue raising rates until the middle of next year, with a peak rate of around 3% from 1.5% currently.

☆ Morning Bid: Relief, hope and speculation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur BanerjeeInvestors have been looking for just about any positive sign to pick up beaten down Hong Kong and China stocks. Earlier this week, rumours based on an unverified social media note that China was planning a reopening in March led to a sharp rally. The rumour was shot down almost immediately but investors it seems remain hopeful even as COVID cases in China climb. And in the background lurks the Fed and its hawkish policy, with U.S. payrolls report due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect non-farm payrolls to have increased by 200,000 jobs in October and any upside surprise will embolden the central bank's stance.

☆ ECB's top brass keep focus on fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's (ECB) two top officials emphasised on Friday the central bank's focus on bring down inflation in the euro area before it becomes entrenched. "We would need to take additional actions until we are more confident that inflation will return to target in a timely manner," she added. Both he and Lagarde said governments should stick to "temporary" and "targeted" support for households affected by the current inflation crisis to avoid supporting demand. Panetta, however, struck a more dovish tone by saying the ECB should avoid raising rates too fast because that could excessively hurt economic growth, home prices and financial markets. Reporting by Francesco Canepa Editing by Balazs Koranyi and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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