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Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia

☆ Moschino names former Gucci designer Renne creative director
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A model presents a creation from the Moschino Spring/Summer 2024 collection during Fashion Week in Milan, Italy, September 21, 2023. REUTERS/Claudia Greco/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsMILAN, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Italian fashion group Aeffe (AEF.MI) said on Monday that former Gucci's head designer of womenswear Davide Renne would be the new creative director of its Moschino brand starting on Nov. 1. Renne will take the place of Jeremy Scott, who stepped down after a decade as Moschino's creative director, the group said. Renne will make his debut during February's 2024 Milan Fashion Week with the Fall/Winter 24-25 collection. "We are confident that he will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Moschino," Aeffe executive chairman Massimo Ferretti said in a statement.

Persons: Claudia Greco, womenswear Davide Renne, Jeremy Scott, Massimo Ferretti, Alberta Ferretti, Lorenzo Serafini, Elisa Anzolin, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, February's, Alberta, Thomson Locations: Milan, Italy, Aeffe

☆ Berardi helps Italy thrash Malta, Hungary, Denmark also win on road to Euros
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Tommy Lund | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Italy's win leaves them in second place ahead on goal difference of Ukraine, who won 2-0 against North Macedonia. Both teams have 10 points but Italy have a match in hand on all their group rivals except England, who top the group with 13 points. Hungary remain top of Group G after beating second-placed Serbia 2-1, with all the goals coming in the first half. Hungary have 13 points, three points above Serbia with a game in hand. They are level on 16 points with second-placed Denmark, who won 3-1 at home to Kazakhstan.

Persons: Domenico Berardi, Luciano Spalletti's, Ciro, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Mateo Retegui, Federico Chiesa, Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Zaniolo, Italy's, Giacomo Bonaventura, Bonaventura, Davide Frattesi, Spalletti, Gareth Southgate's, Benjamin Sesko, Erik Janza, Tommy Lund, Anita Kobylinska, Ken Ferris Organizations: Malta, Italy, Stadio San Nicola, North, Sky Sports, RAI Sport, England, Wembley, H, Slovenia, Thomson Locations: Italy, Hungary, Germany Slovenia, Denmark, England, Slovenia, Bari, Malta, Germany, Turin, Ukraine, North Macedonia, ENGLAND, Serbia, Lithuania, Finland, Kazakhstan, Gdansk

The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

Developers, financial advisers and bondholders said that could make debt restructuring terms much worse than expected earlier. DEFAULTING DEVELOPERSThe property sector accounts for roughly a quarter of the world's second-largest economy. That could trigger off one of the world's biggest debt restructuring exercises. However, a turnaround (in the property sector) may need more," said Chuanyi Zhou, Asia corporate analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which holds Sunac's bonds. Chinese policymakers rolled out a range of support measures in late August and early September to revive the property sector.

Persons: Shimao, Chuanyi Zhou, Yuzhou, Edward Al, Clare Jim, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: HONG KONG, JPMorgan, HK, Shimao, CIFI Holdings, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Developers, Reuters, Kaisa, Columbia, China Index Academy, Thomson Locations: HONG, China, Asia, Hong Kong, New York

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas

☆ Soaring Treasury yields ignite turbulence throughout markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Because the $25-trillion Treasury market is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, soaring yields on U.S. government bonds have had wide-ranging effects. Higher Treasury yields can curb investors' appetite for stocks and other risky assets by tightening financial conditions as they raise the cost of credit for companies and individuals. With some Treasury maturities offering far above 5% to investors holding the bonds to term, rising yields have also dulled the allure of equities. Reuters GraphicsWith Treasury yields surging, credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. The MOVE index (.MOVE), a measure of expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, has surged to a 4-month high, signaling expectations for continued Treasury market ructions.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, That's, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: United States Department of, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Global Research, Reuters, Traders, Reuters Graphics, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Silicon

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ US government shutdown possible later this year but no impact on rating - Fitch
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A jogger runs by the U.S. Capitol as the deadline to avert a partial government shutdown approaches at the end of the day on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Credit rating agency Fitch said on Wednesday the ousting of U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meant a government shutdown later this year was possible, although it would not affect its U.S. sovereign rating. "Given the fact that the House speaker was ousted right after the continuing resolution was agreed, we expect political brinkmanship around government funding negotiations will remain tense and a shutdown later this year can't be ruled out," Richard Francis, a senior director at Fitch, said in a podcast. A shutdown would not impact Fitch's rating as the country's "deterioration in governance" was already captured in Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. in August, Francis said. Reporting by Davide BarbusciaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ken Cedeno, Fitch, Kevin McCarthy, Richard Francis, Francis, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the country's credit, credit rating agency Moody's said on Monday, a stern warning coming one month after Fitch downgraded the U.S. by one notch on the back of a debt ceiling crisis. Moody's has an "Aaa" rating for the U.S. government with a stable outlook - the highest creditworthiness it assigns to borrowers. "Fiscal policymaking is less robust in the U.S. than in many Aaa-rated peers, and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness," Moody's said in a statement. The economic impact of a shutdown would likely be limited and short-lived, with the most direct economic impact caused by lower government spending. Of course, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more negative its impact would be on the broader economy, said Moody's.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Moody's, Fitch, William Foster, Foster, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Sharon Singleton, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, P Global, Aaa, Republican Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Washington, Aaa, Moody's

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

The risk, they have warned, is that large basis positions could once again exacerbate vulnerabilities in the U.S. bond market, which is a linchpin of the world's financial system. "These basis positions with these transformations are going to be a part of the equation because it's a necessary evil to get the capital to meet the demand." Higher supply comes as liquidity in Treasuries has been problematic for most of last year, partially due to rising volatility spurred by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle. But Richard Chambers, global head of repo trading and global co-head of short macro trading at Goldman Sachs, told the trading forum on Thursday that the repo market was now more efficient. "We will have more levered investors buying Treasuries into 2024 and so demand for leverage in Treasuries will increase," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Janet, Yellen, Jason Granet, Mark Wendland, ”, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, Treasuries, Treasury, BNY Mellon, DRW Holdings, Reuters, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Treasuries

The trades - typically the domain of macro hedge funds with relative value strategies - consist of selling a futures contract, buying Treasuries deliverable into that contract with repurchase agreement (repo) funding, and delivering them at contract expiry. "Cash-futures basis positions could again be exposed to stress during broader market corrections," Fed economists said in an Aug. 30 note. Separately, in a Sept. 8 note that looked among other things at hedge funds' Treasury exposures, Fed economists said there was a risk of a rapid unwind of basis trade positions in case of higher repo funding costs. "However, the approach they take may not be straightforward as the Fed does not have direct regulatory oversight over hedge funds," he said. "Cash futures basis trades are vulnerable to two risks: higher margin costs on the futures short and higher financing costs on the cash long position," Barclays said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Deutsche's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, repo, Futures Trading Commission, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

☆ Frattesi double gives Italy win over Ukraine in Spalletti's home debut
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MILAN, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Italy's Davide Frattesi struck twice for a 2-1 win over Ukraine in their Euro 2024 Group C qualifier on Tuesday to provide new manager Luciano Spalletti with a promising start on home soil. Italy were held to a 1-1 draw away to North Macedonia on Saturday in Spalletti's debut match so the pressure was on the former Napoli coach to deliver at San Siro. Italy are now second in the standings on seven points ahead of Ukraine on goal difference and with a game in hand on all their group rivals. "There was a lot of pressure in recent weeks, and I had to understand many things in a short time," Spalletti told RAI. Just before the half-hour mark Frattesi got his second goal by calmly slotting home once again from close range, capitalising on a ricocheted shot.

Persons: Italy's Davide Frattesi, Luciano Spalletti, Spalletti, it's, Mattia Zaccagni, Frattesi, I've, Andriy Yarmolenko, Manuel Locatelli, Tommy Lund, Clare Fallon, Ken Ferris Organizations: Ukraine, Napoli, England, RAI, Inter Milan, Inter, Thomson Locations: Italy, Macedonia, San Siro, Ukraine, Sassuolo, Gdansk

The Federal Reserve has tamed inflation via interest rate increases, but it may need to take further action, he said. Still, optimism that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession is leading to a reopening of capital markets, Solomon said. "They're meaningful, they're going well," he said. "I do think these capital rules will have an impact on economic growth and that will affect large businesses and small businesses and their access to capital," Solomon said. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon blasted the proposed rules, telling investors on Monday that they could prompt lenders to pull back and stymie economic growth.

Persons: Mohamed Azakir, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Solomon, Treasuries, it's, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Davide Barbuscia, Sharon Singleton, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, SoftBank Group Corp, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Beirut, Lebanon, U.S, New York

☆ Moroccans sleep in the streets for 3rd night following an earthquake that took more than 2,100 lives
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

While some foreign search-and-rescue teams arrived on Sunday as an aftershock rattled Moroccans already in mourning and shock, other aid teams poised to deploy grew frustrated waiting for the government to officially request assistance. Carl Court | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThose areas were shaken anew Sunday by a magnitude 3.9 aftershock, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Aid offers poured in from around the world, and the U.N. said it had a team in Morocco coordinating international support. watch nowA Spanish search-and-rescue team arrived in Marrakech and headed to the rural Talat N'Yaaqoub, according to Spain's Emergency Military Unit. I was saved by my neighbors who cleared the rubble with their bare hands," said Fatna Bechar in Moulay Brahim.

Persons: Davide Bonaldo, Arnaud Fraisse, Salah Ancheu, Ancheu, —, Carl Court, King Mohammed VI, Talat, José Manuel Albares, Jana Cernochova, Fatna Organizations: Getty, People, United Nations, United, Moroccan, Interior Ministry, Rescuers, Carl, . Geological Survey, Aid, Unit . Foreign, Czech Locations: el, Morocco, Marrakech, United States, France, Spain, Qatar, Britain, United Arab Emirates, Paris, Amizmiz, Moulay Brahim, Al Haouz, Turkey, Germany, Cologne, Bonn, Nice, Czech Republic, Moroccan, Ighil, Al Haouz Province, Moulay

The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. It has around $14.8 billion worth of debt due within 12 months, while its cash levels are around $13.8 billion. Country Garden declined to comment. Despite those measures, China's new home prices fell for the fourth month in August, according to a private survey on Friday, as the property debt crisis kept confidence at a low ebb. "Country Garden will probably make full use of the grace periods…it still looks challenging for them to generate enough cash for the upcoming payments, both onshore and offshore," said Ting Meng, a senior credit strategist at ANZ.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, Ting Meng, Benjamin Bennett, they've, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Muralikumar Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Columbia, U.S, Country Garden, ANZ, General Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Country, Hong Kong, New York

☆ Possible Fed overtightening makes recession more likely than not, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, a recession remains a more likely scenario than a so-called "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve seeks to curb inflation by tightening monetary conditions, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday. "Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than too little," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. "A US recession remains more likely than not." In contrast to Deutsche Bank's forecasts, several banks have in recent months revised or pushed out their earlier recession calls. Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday said they had further reduced their 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from a previous 20% estimate.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Thomson Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S

The BlackRock logo is pictured outside their headquarters in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., May 25, 2021. "We prefer short-term government bonds over credit," the institute, an arm of BlackRock (BLK.N), the world's largest asset manager, said in a note. "We go underweight high quality credit on a strategic view of five years and longer and trim our overall underweight to sovereign bonds." "We think high quality credit offers limited compensation for any potential hit to returns from wider spreads and sensitivity to interest rate swings," the institute said. "To turn positive on long-term bonds, we would need to see term premium rise much more or think market expectations of future policy rates are too high.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Davide Barbuscia, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, ICE, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. Country Garden, China's largest private developer by sales, did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment. Lower deposit rates will partially offset various pressures on banks' narrowing net interest margins - a key gauge of profitability, said Nicholas Zhu, a banking analyst at Moody's. "The impact of the deposit rate cut is material, given that close to three-quarters of Chinese banks' liabilities are deposits," Zhu said. China's mortgage loans totalled 38.6 trillion yuan ($5.29 trillion) at the end of June, representing 17% of banks' total loan books.

Persons: Florence Lo, Nicholas Zhu, Zhu, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Wang Jing, Davide Barbuscia, Anne Marie Roantree Organizations: REUTERS, HK, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corp, Agricultural Bank of China, Reuters, Industrial Bank Co Ltd, China Bohai Bank Co Ltd, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Washington, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, New York, Lincoln

Stocks - which have wobbled in August as rising bond yields threatened to dull the allure of equities - were little changed with the S&P 500 up 0.22%. REVIVING RECESSION WORRIESSome investors were worried that higher rates could weigh on growth and increase the chances of a recession next year. Such a scenario, in theory, would force the Fed to cut rates, pulling bond yields lower. But while risks remained that long-term bond yields could move higher, he was looking to extend the duration of his portfolio. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, John Williams, Ann Saphir, Powell, ”, Cindy Beaulieu, Jackson, “ Powell, Anders Persson, Mike Sewell, Rowe Price, Josh Emanuel, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Fed, Kansas, Fed, REUTERS, Kansas City, Financial, Treasury, Investors, Futures, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG/AMSTERDAM, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Global investors fleeing China have one simple message for the country's leadership: put prudence aside for a short while, and start spending big. "At this point there is confusion and, as long as there is confusion, then there's lack of credibility and that means investors are more likely to stay away," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors in London. Prominent examples are heavy Chinese government spending during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and its swift intervention during the 2015 market crash. But the subsidies need to come from local governments, many of which are cash-strapped or even drowning in debt and unable to pay their civil servants. The lack of concrete stimulus measures now is prompting many China watchers to downgrade their growth estimates for the next few years.

Persons: Aly, China's, Seema Shah, Chen Zhao, Zhao, hasn't, Frederik Ducrozet, Ducrozet, Principal's Shah, Yan Wang, Xi Jinping's, we’ve, Lorraine Tan, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Yoruk, Xie Yu, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Westbrook, Li Gu, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Global Investors, policymaking Politburo, Pictet Wealth Management, Local, UBS Bank, Federated Hermes, Foreigners, Asia, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: Huangpu, Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, AMSTERDAM, London, Beijing, Japan, United States, New York, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Singapore

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