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Washington, DC CNN —Americans cut their retail spending in October for the first time since March, with interest rates at a 22-year high. Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, fell 0.1% in October from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. October’s decline in retail spending is potentially an early sign of a slowing economy as US consumers get squeezed by higher borrowing costs and they continue to rack up credit card debt. Car sales fell 1.1% in October from September, while furniture sales declined 2% during the same period. Wednesday’s retail sales report bodes well for the Fed, since it shows spending isn’t reaccelerating or remaining stubbornly strong.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kathy Bostjancic, Austan Goolsbee, market’s, ” Goolsbee Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Federal, Nationwide, Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed, Detroit Economic Locations: Washington
New York CNN —Stocks climbed on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered the inflation cooldown in the latest economic data for October. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the 12 months ended in October. That’s down from 3.7% the prior month, according to fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That brings the annual increase to 4%, the lowest annual increase since September 2021. The October Producer Price index, retail sales and building permits and housing starts data are also slated for release this week.
Persons: Stocks, That’s, Price, , , Brad Conger, Callaghan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Traders, Co, , Moody’s, Home Depot, Wall Locations: New York
U.K. gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics estimated Thursday, partially recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July. "It does not change the outlook for the Bank of England and confirms that the Bank Rate does not have much upside from here, but will remain at current levels for an extended period." The Bank of England last month ended a run of 14 consecutive interest rate hikes after data showed inflation was running below expectations. "The UK has grown faster than France and Germany since the pandemic and today's data shows the economy is more resilient than expected," U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. U.K. headline inflation dipped to an annual 6.7% in August, below expectations but still well above the Bank's 2% target.
Persons: Mathieu Savary, Jeremy Hunt, Thiru Organizations: Citibank, HSBC, National Statistics, BCA Research, Bank of England, of England, Bank, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, Wales, Bank of England's Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, U.K, European, France, Germany, England
Washington, DC CNN —Most Federal Reserve officials said last month that they expect one more rate hike, according to minutes from their September policy meeting released Wednesday. Some officials said that how fast inflation cools in the coming months will determine how long rates remain elevated. Inflation’s steady descent over the past year, and the job market’s gradual cooldown, gave officials enough reassurance to pause, the minutes showed. The central bank’s latest set of economic projections also showed that most Fed officials expect fewer rate cuts next year, confirming investors’ fears that rates could remain higher for longer. It’s unclear how much higher yields will weigh on economic activity, but several Fed officials have said in public remarks this week that it could mean less action from the Fed.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, , Lorie Logan, Mack Trucks Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Treasury, ” Dallas, Employers, Labor Department, United Auto Workers, UAW Locations: Washington
Minneapolis CNN —Wholesale price increases of US goods and services jumped higher for a third consecutive month, influenced by still-high energy prices, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September’s overall increase was driven by a 0.9% gain in goods prices due to higher energy prices and food prices, BLS data shows. Gas prices hit new yearly highs in September, as oil prices pushed past $92 a barrel amid supply cuts and catastrophic flooding in Libya. The higher gas prices seen in August and September may filter through to some products and services but shouldn’t ultimately keep inflation higher in the months to come, said Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services’ senior economic adviser. However, the Israel and Hamas war in the Middle East does add volatility to energy prices, he said.
Persons: Price, , Gregory Daco, Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, shouldn’t, Stuart Hoffman, ” Hoffman Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, PPI, PNC Financial Services Locations: Minneapolis, August’s, Libya, Israel
The surprisingly strong economy has led investors to worry that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, which, in turn, drove US Treasury yields higher. As stocks have declined and bond yields have soared, bond prices have tanked, causing pain for investors who bet that the Fed would curtail its rate-hiking campaign earlier this year. Treasury yields rose to their highest level in over a decade earlier this week, before edging lower on a cooldown in employment data on Wednesday. Bond prices cratered in 2022 after the Fed began drastically raising near-zero rates to tame runaway inflation. US Treasury bond prices jumped earlier this year after the collapse of several regional lenders led traders to bet that the Fed would soon ease its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.
Persons: , Noah Wise, Matt Miskin, FactSet, Miskin, Wise, doesn’t, you’re, ” Wise, Sam Bankman, Nathan Rehn, Allison Morrow, , ” Rehn, Read, Samantha Murphy Kelly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Treasury, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Allspring Global Investments, John Hancock Investment Management, Fed, US Treasury, Google Locations: Manhattan, Bahamas, New York City
CNN —A dramatic change is on the way as a robust cold front delivers the first hefty dose of fall weather by the weekend, sending temperatures tumbling by as much as 35 degrees. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal October levels will be common through Thursday across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Overnight low temperatures will also plummet behind these fronts. Low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 50s are likely across the north-central US and Midwest by Saturday morning, and in the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rain and storms to accompany frontsThe dramatic cooldown won’t be the only noticeable weather change this week.
Persons: haven’t Organizations: CNN, Cleveland, Midwest, Sunday, US Drought Monitor Locations: Gulf Coast . States, Louisiana, Midwest, Minnesota, Michigan, Lakes, New York, Minneapolis, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York City, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Gulf, Texas, Oklahoma
In the sports world, betting and gambling startups have started the last two years raising fewer and fewer funding dollars. While funding is harder to come by, startups are also facing changes in the world of sports business and technology. Insider recently released a list of the top VCs investing in sports and asked their founders, CEOs, partners, and directors what they would tell startups trying to break through. Chris GroveKey investments: Acies Investments and EKG Ventures are focused on sports, gambling, and technology. When we invest in a tech company, we have four criteria.
Persons: Tom Loverro, Cole Van Nice, Chris Grove, Chris, you've, There's, Courtside, Tom Brady, Michael Strahan's, Meredith McPherron, Alex Rodriguez, Topgolf Callaway, Brad Farkas, Steve Ahern, Lance Dietz, Craig Thompson, Michael Proman, Proman, Wayne Kimmel, SeventySix, It's, Lloyd Danzig, Sharp Organizations: Elysian Park, Acies Investments, EKG Ventures, Courtside Ventures, of Sports, Elysian Park Ventures, Club, Kinetics, PGA of America, HBSE Ventures, KB Partners, Mindspring, Scrum Ventures, Ventures, Japanese, Boom Entertainment, SeventySix, Vegas Sports Information, Inc, Entrepreneurs, Sharp Alpha Advisors Locations: Chris Grove, Chicago
These are tough times for the housing market. Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications have plunged 28% since last year and are now at the lowest level since late 1996. After two years of a pandemic-fueled housing market frenzy and another year of rising rates and tight inventory, consumers are weary. During the pandemic, as the Federal Reserve moved to lower interest rates, mortgage rates fell to 3% and below, prompting a wave of refinancings. “Mortgage applications declined to the lowest level since December 1996, despite a drop in mortgage rates,” said Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Persons: Freddie Mac’s, , Lisa Sturtevant, ” Sturtevant, Joel Kan, Redfin, Niko Voutsinas Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders, Housing, Bright MLS, , Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington, Chicago
Jaap Arriens | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesWorkplaces filled with artificial intelligence are closer to becoming a reality, making it essential that workers know how to use generative AI. Whether or not companies embrace or reject AI, offering specific AI chatbot training to current employees could be the best way to keep those workers. "It's important to offer [AI] training to help employees but also maintain the posture of your company; it's about embracing emerging technologies and moving quickly." "AI is impacting everybody's job in one way, and generative AI will have a particular impact on knowledge work," Atkinson said. This will not only alleviate job loss concerns, but it will retain employees, Purakayastha said.
Persons: Jaap Arriens, Joe Atkinson, ChatGPT, Stacie Haller, Atkinson, Apratim Purakayastha, Purakayastha, They'll Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty
CNN —After roaring higher for most of this year, the rally in tech stocks sputtered in August as investors grew increasingly worried about how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high. Strong economic data in recent months has investors betting that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher yields also mean companies will need to pay more interest on their debt in the future, eating into future cash flows. Sustained, lofty yields could particularly pose a problem for tech stocks, which often trade at a premium because of the promise of rapid growth. Any sell-off in tech could reverberate across the broader market, since those stocks are largely responsible for propelling this year’s rally.
Persons: Ivana Delevska, Spear, Bryan Mena, CNN’s Gregory Wallace, Julie Hedrick, “ We’re, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nvidia, Devices, Marvell Technology, Gross, Commerce, American Airlines, Association of Professional, Airline
CNN —Hurricane Hilary is rapidly intensifying in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Thursday and is on track to deliver potentially significant rain and flooding to parts of the Southwest as a weaker system starting this weekend. One of those places is Death Valley, California, the hottest place on Earth. The combination of rainfall and increased cloud cover across the Southwest is expected to bring a significant cooldown over the weekend. The most recent was an unnamed tropical storm in 1939, NOAA records show. 1997’s Nora was the last and only other tropical storm to maintain its status after crossing into California.
Persons: Hilary, Daniel Swain, San Diego Hurricane, , Nora Organizations: CNN, National Hurricane Center, University of California, US Drought Monitor, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, San Diego Locations: Mexico, Cabo San Lucas, Peninsula, California, Southern California, Nevada, Arizona, Central California, Los Angeles, Death Valley , California, Death, floodwater, New Mexico, Phoenix
From Karat to Spill, venture capitalists are betting on creator-focused companies in 2023.Insider is highlighting 14 VC firms that are backing startups in the space right now. About three years ago, the "creator economy" was a fiery buzzword that emerged out of the bustling influencer-marketing and social-media industries. By 2021, the space had raised approximately $939 million in venture capital, according to Crunchbase data. Insider is highlighting over a dozen VC firms, as well as their partners who specialize in creator-focused startups, that are funding the next wave of creator-economy companies. Here are 14 VC firms funding the creator economy in 2023:Note: Firms are listed in alphabetical order.
Persons: Marlon Nichols, Nichols, Karat Organizations: MaC Venture
Armies around the world are testing high-energy laser weapons to intercept targets. If their claims are true, it would mean that China has leapfrogged ahead of the US in developing high-energy laser weapons that could be used on the battlefield. The capability China's military scientists claim to have developed, however, has not yet been seen in action. Laser beams can heat up gas in the air, which can reduce the quality of the beam and cause damage inside the laser chamber, according to the report. The Marines have tested a Compact Laser Weapons System in the range of 2 to 10 kilowatts, and the Air Force has received high-energy laser pods for its fighter jets.
Persons: Steve Weaver, Lockheed Martin Organizations: Service, China Morning, National University of Defence Technology, Optica Sinica, British, Energy, Lockheed, US Department of Defense's, US Army, Marines, Air Force, Defense Department, Office Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Hunan, Optica, United States, Portland
Consulting firms are now pushing back start dates for some new hires fresh out of college. Others are being offered tens of thousands dollars to push their start dates back to next year. One recent graduate from Pomona College was on track to start at Accenture this month, Bloomberg reported. She was asked to push back her start date to next April and given a $25,000 bonus to make up for the disruption. Are you a recent college graduate who's had your start date pushed back at a consulting firm?
Persons: there's, cooldown hasn't, you'll, who's, Lakshmi Organizations: Accenture, Bloomberg, Service, New, Netflix, Deloitte, Pomona College Locations: Wall, Silicon, Southeast Asia, Lakshmi Varanasi, lvaranasi
Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.
Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation
US stocks finished the week mostly lower as investors digest mixed inflation data. While the July CPI report came in lower than expected, the producer price index was higher than economist estimates. The conflicting data will serve as a major input into the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. The July consumer price index came in lower than economist estimates and showed a continued cooldown in inflation, while July producer price index came in hotter than economist estimates, though it did indicate most prices are falling from year-ago levels. Despite the conflicting data, investors still expect the Federal Reserve to pause their interest rate hikes at their September FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Quincy Krosby, it's Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hikes but its balance sheet reduction plans still pose a big risk to stocks. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $900 billion over the past year and is showing no signs of stopping. Continued draining of liquidity presents a risk for equities," Ned Davis Research said in a Thursday note. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by about $80 billion per month, and stocks tend to perform well when the exact opposite happens, according to NDR. And its balance sheet reduction policy can have a big impact not only on the stock market, but also the economy.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Fed, Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: Wall, Silicon
As inflation continued to slow last month, optimism improved among the more than 1,300 small businesses surveyed, though it remains subdued compared to pre-pandemic times. Of owners hiring or trying to hire, 92% reported few or no qualified applicants for their available jobs, also unchanged from the prior month. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions dismal, owners want to hire and make money now from solid consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in a release. Despite the economy holding steady, optimism among small businesses isn’t back to where it was before the pandemic. Even though businesses are still grappling with difficulties in hiring, cooling inflation has taken some of the edge off.
Persons: , Bill Dunkelberg, they’ve Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Gross, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Labor Department, Wall Street Locations: Washington
Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —The case for no US recession is building, but some on Wall Street are cautioning against getting overconfident. That has raised hopes among investors that the United States could avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes. Still, some investors are maintaining that the US economy could tip into a recession later this year. The index of leading economic indicators is just kind of at an extreme rating. One of the reasons for the rise in equity valuations in recent weeks was the pricing out of recession or economic weakness.
Persons: Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli, , Bell, David Donabedian, we’ve, There’s, Catherine Thorbecke, Danielle Romain, Romain, Read, Uno Mattel, Uno Quatro, Ellie Stevens, “ We’re, Ray Adler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase’s, CIBC Private Wealth, Fitch, Google, Trust, Mattel, Uno Locations: New York, United States, New York City
But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.
Persons: we’ve, , Kayla Bruun, , Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, , Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington
But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.
Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, , PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
U.S. stock indexes rose Friday, lifted by tech shares, as blue-chip earnings and fresh inflation data rolled in. Big tech stocks, including Alphabet and Meta Platforms, powered ahead. Intel gained after it posted a return to profit late Thursday on the back of a resurgent PC market . Tesla and other EV stocks rose , while Ford retreated. Big tech shares were among the day's leading gainers.
Persons: Ford, Dow industrials, Dow Organizations: Intel, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Federal, Nasdaq, Big, Meta, Treasury, Overseas, Technology Locations: Big, ., Japan's, Japan, Europe
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