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☆ MLB roundup: White Sox overcome brawl, dispatch Guardians
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Chicago starter Michael Kopech (5-10) limited the Guardians to two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Texas starter Jon Gray (7-5) earned the win, allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Tyler O'Neill hit a homer for the Cardinals, who won for just the third time in their last nine games. Ryan McMahon hit his 100th career home run for the Rockies, who lost for the third time in four games. Cardinals starting pitcher Steven Matz (3-7) held the Rockies to one run on five hits and two walks in six innings.

Persons: Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr, Ken Blaze, Andrew Vaughn, Oscar Colas, Elvis Andrus, Jose Ramirez, Tim Anderson, Anderson, Ramirez, Emmanuel Clase, Mike Sarbaugh, Michael Kopech, Noah Syndergaard, Will Brennan, Blake Perkins, Victor Caratini, Angel Perdomo, Brian Anderson, Mark Canha, Yelich's groundout, William Contreras, Perkins, Sal Frelick's, Jason Delay, Jake Bauers, Justin Verlander, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Kendall Graveman, Torres, Nestor Cortes, Jose Altuve's, Jake Rogers, Aaron Civale's, Akil Baddoo, Tarik Skubal, Beau Brieske, Dansby Swanson, Jeimer Candelario, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Candelario, Michael Fulmer, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Bryce Elder, Robbie Grossman, Grossman, Jon Gray, Jake Burger, Will Smith, Rafael Devers, Jose Berrios, Manny Machado, Diego, Juan Soto, Sanchez, Seong Kim, Enrique Hernandez, Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Grisham, Alex Vesia, George Kirby, Julio Rodriguez, Kirby, Randal Grichuk, Shohei Ohtani, Joan Adon, Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, TJ Friedl, Trea Turner, Philadelphia's, Matt Strahm, Angel Zerpa, Craig Kimbrel, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Kyle Gibson, Gibson, Danny Coulombe, Yennier Cano, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Seth Brown, Jordan Diaz, Joc Pederson, Angel Felipe, Trevor May, Ryan Walker, Scott Alexander, Ryan Jeffers, Max Kepler, Michael A, Taylor, Kenta Maeda, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Ryne Nelson, Willson Contreras, Tommy Edman, Louis, Tyler O'Neill, Ryan McMahon, Steven Matz, Ty Blach Organizations: Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Progressive, Cleveland, Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, White Sox, Brewers, Pirates, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Yankees, Astros, New York, Houston, Tigers, Rays, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Detroit ., Cubs, Braves, Chicago, Atlanta, Rangers, Marlins, Miami, The Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Toronto, Boston, Padres, Dodgers, The Dodgers, Mariners, Angels, Seattle, Nationals, Reds, Cincinnati, Phillies, Royals, Kansas City, National League, Orioles, Mets, Baltimore, New, Athletics, Giants, Oakland, Bay Area, The Giants, Diamondbacks, Minnesota, American League Central, Cardinals, Rockies, Colorado, Thomson Locations: Cleveland , Ohio, USA, Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee, Seattle, Texas, Arlington , Texas, Miami, Toronto, Los Angeles, Anaheim , Calif, Washington, New York, San Francisco, Minnesota, Arizona, Minneapolis

☆ White Sox's win over Guardians marred by brawl, ejections
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Field Level Media | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/37] Aug 5, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY SportsAugust 6 - Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, Oscar Colas and Elvis Andrus homered for the visiting Chicago White Sox before their 7-4 win against the Cleveland Guardians was marred by a bench-clearing brawl in the sixth inning on Saturday evening. Jose Ramirez slid head-first into second base between the legs of Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson after delivering an RBI double. Chicago starter Michael Kopech (5-10) helped the White Sox end a five-game losing streak by limiting the Guardians to two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 innings. The White Sox tacked on two runs in the eighth on a single by Zach Remillard to make it 7-2.

Persons: Noah Syndergaard, Ken Blaze, Luis Robert Jr, Andrew Vaughn, Oscar Colas, Elvis Andrus, Jose Ramirez, Tim Anderson, Anderson, Ramirez, Emmanuel Clase, Mike Sarbaugh, Michael Kopech, Will Brennan, Robert, Vaughn, Colas, Andrus, Cleveland didn't, Andres Gimenez, Bryan Shaw, Kopech, Kole Calhoun, Jose Tena, Calhoun, Zach Remillard, Brennan Organizations: Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Progressive, Cleveland, White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Guardians, Thomson Locations: Cleveland , Ohio, USA, Cleveland, Chicago

☆ 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki warns of a market 'crash landing' after US credit rating gets slashed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should brace for an epic "crash landing" to hit markets and the economy, Robert Kiyosaki said. The "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author pointed to Fitch's move to slash the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. "Brace for crash landing. Kiyosaki has been sounding the alarm for a steep recession and an epic stock market crash for years, calling for the greatest market crash in world history in 2021. Many economists, meanwhile, are warming to the idea that the US will see a soft landing of its economy.

Persons: Robert Kiyosaki, Dad, Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, —, Fitch, " Brace, He's ramped, didn't, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Larry Summers, Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon Organizations: AAA, AA, Service, Fed, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ This year's big rally has come to only a few days, again challenging market-timers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The massive 2023 stock rally essentially has come down to just a handful of trading days, offering more proof of how difficult it is to time the market. Of the 137 trading days so far, 74 have been positive and 63 have been negative. By contrast, last year's swoon on the S & P 500 could be traced to just five big losing days. "There is simply no other way for the S & P 500 to keep rallying," he wrote. "There are 113 trading days left in 2023.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, swoon, Colas Organizations: Big Tech, Tech, Federal Reserve

☆ The only reason to buy Tesla stock has nothing to do with its EV business, market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

When it comes to Tesla stock, the only reason to buy has nothing to do with its electric vehicle business. But according to a Wednesday note from DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, there's only one reason to buy Tesla stock at its current levels, and it has nothing to do with its EV business. The car industry is difficult to compete in, as evidenced by the current stock prices of legacy automakers, he observed. So when it comes to Tesla stock, don't just look at its EV sales, according to Colas. The remaining $200 billion to $300 billion of Tesla's current market valuation is assigned to the company's EV business, which is comparable to Toyota's current market valuation.

Persons: Tesla, Nicholas Colas, Ark, Elon Musk, Colas, Musk Organizations: General Motors, Ford, Honda, Mercedes, Service, DataTrek Research, Toyota Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Why better-than-expected earnings this reporting season may have trouble boosting market further
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

They are very high, and that may prevent stock prices from moving forward even if earnings reports exceed estimates. The earnings "apocalypse" — the collapse in earnings that many feared would be coming along with a serious recession in 2023 — has not materialized. What this means is that the price of the S & P 500 has gone up to due multiple expansion, not because earnings estimates have been rising dramatically. Bottom line: The S & P 500 at 4,400 with forward earnings at $230 today (19.2 multiple) is not nearly as appealing as the S & P was in January, when it was at 3,800 with forward earnings at $220 (17.2 multiple). It's the easiest path to get the overall market higher.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, —, Chris Harvey, Wells, Nick Raich, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek Organizations: BofA Securities, Delta, Microsoft, Nvidia, P Technology, Big Tech Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ The good news and the unknowns for bank stocks after the Fed's latest stress tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Understandable because this year's stress tests came against a backdrop of uncertainty for the sector. The stress tests Starting in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis, bank stress tests were designed as a tool to ensure that so-called too-big-to-fail institutions could endure a similar calamity. WFC MS YTD mountain Wells Fargo vs. Morgan Stanley YTD performance It's worth noting that Wells Fargo is in a unique situation compared to its rivals. He added that the "stress tests only really address a macro environment where rates decline during a crisis. A sign is posted in front of a Wells Fargo Bank on April 14, 2023 in San Bruno, California.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nicholas Colas, Wells Fargo, Doug Butler, Wells, Colas, Chris Kotowski, Oppenheimer, Banks, Kotowski, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wells, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, Research, CNBC, Fed, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Rockland Trust, Citi, Equity, WFC, Wall, Wells Fargo Bank Locations: U.S, Silicon, Wells, Rockland, Wells Fargo, San Bruno , California

☆ Coca-Cola to see less pain from looming WHO decision on aspartame - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Savyata Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

June 30 (Reuters) - Coca-Cola (KO.N) will only see a limited impact if the world health agency classifies the artificial sweetener used in its Diet Coke, aspartame, as a possible carcinogen, thanks to its scale of production, analysts said on Friday. But for Coca-Cola, whose low-calorie products accounted for a third of its total volumes sold in 2022, analysts said switching to a natural sweetener could be easier than many other companies that use aspartame. In the past, beverage makers like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have tweaked their ingredient composition to comply with evolving policy changes. However, PepsiCo could get an edge over its rival as it had moved away from aspartame to a blend of sucralose and acesulfame potassium earlier, CFRA Research said. Reporting by Savyata Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Charlie Higgs, Grzegorz, Savyata Mishra, Arun Koyyur Organizations: World Health, Redburn Ltd, Cola, PepsiCo, Conotoxia, Research, Thomson Locations: California, Bengaluru

☆ Fed paper argues 'bleak' stock market returns could slide to 2% annually
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future," Smolyansky says. Part of the thesis is a gap between the stock market average return and the 2.5% rate of real economic growth. "Stock price performance above this 2 percent real rate could only be accomplished by the perpetual expansion of P/E multiples. DataTrek research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote that the paper's general assumption about taxes and interest rates and their correlation to stock market returns is "obviously true, but only to a point." Colas noted that interest rates in particular have been on the decline around the world, but global stock returns have been flat since 2008.

Persons: Michael Smolyansky, Smolyansky, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Federal Locations: Washington

☆ Here's why the market is ignoring a tell-tale sign that a recession is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

For just shy of a year now, the bond market has been signaling that a recession is on the horizon. And for the better part of the past six months, the stock market has been ignoring it. "The market's certainly not acting like it would if this 'Waiting for Godot' recession was right around the corner. "I would say it's much more about what started this conundrum, the combination of pandemic policy, pandemic reopening and hyperaggressive monetary policy. A key narrative from those looking for recession is the lag effects that Fed policy will have.

Persons: Godot, Hogan, Nicholas Colas, Colas, There's, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Riley Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, New York Fed, DataTrek Research, Wharton Business Locations: It's, U.S

☆ The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St

☆ As regional bank stock rally regains steam, investors should watch out for these spoilers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.

Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York

☆ It's Wall Street vs Wall Street as the recession debate rages on. Here's what David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach and 5 other experts have warned.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts are butting heads over the health of the economy, and what's to come. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the Rosenberg Research chief tweeted. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. "We're referring to this phenomenon as a Cardboard Box Recession, because items that are made (manufacturing) and shipped (trade) tend to go in a box.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Clif Asness, —, Rosenberg, Will, hasn't, we're, Gundlach, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Kleintop, Goldman Sachs, That's, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fibre, Association, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Locations: United States

CNN —Brittney Griner, the WNBA star who was freed from Russia late last year after being wrongfully detained, was harassed Saturday by a man described as a social media “provocateur” at a Dallas airport. A source familiar with the incident told CNN that around 9:30 am CT, Griner was at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport traveling with Phoenix Mercury teammates on their way to a game. CNN has reached out to local law enforcement and the DFW airport about the incident. “We remain steadfastly committed to the highest standards of security for players,” the statement reads. We demand better.”Unlike in the NBA, WNBA teams are not permitted to use charter planes for travel, CNN previously reported.

Persons: Brittney Griner, Griner, Viktor Bout –, ”, Biden, “, Brianna Turner, Lindsay Kagawa Colas, ” Colas Organizations: CNN, WNBA, Dallas Fort Worth International, Phoenix Mercury, DFW, “, Twitter, NBA Locations: Russia, Dallas, of, America

☆ The stock market rally faces a conundrum as inflation can't fall enough to please the Fed while the economy is this strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's because inflation may not fall enough while the economy stays strong. The firm warned that rate hikes could continue, which would be a headwind for the stock market. Colas predicted that the rally in stocks will continue through the end of June, though the market could face a conundrum in the third quarter as inflation and Fed rate expectations become repriced. Commentators have warned more rate hikes are in order before the Fed gets inflation fully under control, though higher rates will likely be a headwind for stocks. The S&P 500 slumped 20% last year amid the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, notching its worst performance since 2008.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, that's Organizations: Service, Research, Federal, Fed

☆ Yes, you can have a red-hot jobs market and a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.S. jobs market is still sizzling and the economy is heading for a recession: Both things can be true. May's nonfarm payrolls growth again stunned Wall Street, with the count climbing by 339,000, well ahead of Wall Street estimates that have consistently undershot the report since January 2022. However, there's an old adage on the Street that when it comes to recessions, the jobs market is always the last to know. Central bank policymakers specifically have targeted a slowdown in the labor market in their quest to bring down inflation. The weak services reading comes with an ISM manufacturing reading — most recently at 46.9 — in contraction for seven straight months.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Kumar, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Federal, Pantheon, Fed, Sri, Kumar, Services, Capital Economics, Research, Atlanta Locations: payrolls

☆ The stock market's fear gauge just hit its lowest level in 3 years as a new bull market kicks off
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street's fear gauge fell to its lowest level in 3 years just as a new bull market hits stocks. The decline in the VIX suggests that the stock market has entered a regime of low volatility following the bear market of 2022. A new bull market starts when an index surges 20% from the lowest close of its bear market. The Nasdaq 100 already entered its bull market at the end of March. "We wouldn't be surprised at all if this new bull market would continue much longer than most think and the VIX will also stay consistently beneath 20.

Persons: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Carson Group's, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Katie Stockton doesn't, we've, Stockton Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, DataTrek Research

☆ Analysis: Why we may need a stock market plunge to solve the debt ceiling crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

They know how it ends: with politicians waiting until the last minute before giving in and finally raising the debt ceiling before disaster strikes. On Friday, it looked like the White House and Republicans were getting closer to a deal on the debt ceiling before talks unexpectedly broke down. In 2011, the most serious near-default in American history, markets experienced volatility in the days and weeks before Washington reached a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling. None of this is to say markets are completely ignoring the debt ceiling drama today. The debt ceiling is a manufactured crisis that officials could have dealt with months ago.

☆ This chart shows the fastest-rising costs for Social Security beneficiaries
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Lordhenrivoton | E+ | Getty ImagesHigh inflation 'extremely difficult' for retireesSocial Security COLAs have increased by 78% since 2000, according to The Senior Citizens League. At the same time, the cost of goods and services retirees typically buy has gone up by 141.4% over that time. Yet the current 36% loss in buying power is still one of the deepest losses recorded, according to the group. Eggs topped the list of fastest-growing costs for seniors since 2000. While higher spending may complicate the fight against higher inflation, it is delayed relief for older Americans, whose COLA was lower than price growth in 2022.

☆ Column: Inflation and the markets take a bite out of retirement confidence
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Mark Miller | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But persistent inflation and last year’s sharp stock market decline have shaken the confidence of American workers and retirees about their retirement prospects in a way not seen since 2008. That is the key finding of the 2023 Retirement Confidence Survey - the longest-running survey of its kind measuring worker and retiree confidence. But inflation affects everyone, and it is a constant risk factor in retirement plans - even when it is not making headlines. For starters, most retirees depend on Social Security for a substantial portion of retirement income - and it comes with built-in inflation protection. This year, the COLA was a whopping 8.7%, the largest inflation adjustment in four decades.

☆ MLB roundup: White Sox surge past Rays, snap 10-game skid
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

[1/6] Apr 30, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn (25) watches his game-winning three-run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the ninth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Christian Bethancourt added a solo homer and two RBIs. Orioles 5, Tigers 3Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo hit solo home runs and visiting Baltimore continued its dominance of Detroit. Evan Phillips closed out the ninth inning to earn his third save. Reliever Zack Thompson (1-2) allowed two runs on one hit and two walks while retiring just two batters.

☆ Record earnings by Q4 just won't happen this year: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecord earnings by Q4 just won't happen this year: DataTrek's Nicholas ColasDataTrek Research co-founder Nick Colas joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his take on the volatility index, earnings outlook, and his read on investor sentiment.

☆ Markets are ignoring recession signals because a downturn might actually ease a handful of problems facing stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Today we're diving into how a recession could affect the stock market — and why it may not be all bad in the eyes of investors. Traders gather on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016. Markets so far this year haven't acted like they're too concerned about a recession, and that's no accident, according to DataTrek Research. : Sticky, high prices have weighed on stocks, but a slowdown would alleviate this. Falling productivity in the labor market: A recession could stop companies from hoarding workers, which could improve profit margins.

☆ Why markets actually could be hoping for a recession this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are not only acting unafraid of a looming recession but also may actually want one that would eradicate some of the other ills facing the U.S. economy, according to one Wall Street analysis. Wall Street economists and strategists widely expect a recession to set in later this year, the product of a number of factors. "Stocks bottom before the US economy hits its lows in any given recession because markets understand this dynamic," Colas wrote. "Markets know this history, which is why they see an upcoming recession as finally bringing the Fed around to starting the next easing cycle," Colas said. "There are other pathways to achieve those necessary goals, but none will work as quickly as an economic contraction.

☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

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