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☆ Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining, but What Does It Mean?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Newly registered voters, who are disproportionately young and nonwhite, have tended to lean Democratic. That’s been less and less true during the Biden era. A majority of states ask people to select a party affiliation when they register, and last year newly registered Democrats made up only about 53 percent of those who chose a major party — beating Republican sign-ups by a narrow margin of 26 percent to 23 percent of total registrations — according to data from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor.

Persons: That’s, Biden Organizations: Republican

☆ One way to help American homebuyers? Do what the Dutch do.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Cork Gaines | Eliza Relman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Dutch offer home mortgages with evolving interest rates that can automatically decrease over time. However, other countries are taking notice: The Dutch mortgage lender DMFCO recently began offering Dutch-style mortgages in the UK. AdvertisementBut there are some deeply entrenched features of the American mortgage system that make it unlikely we'll see widespread adoption of Dutch-style mortgages. AdvertisementAdditionally, mortgage interest rates in the US aren't determined by the loan-to-value ratio beyond a certain point. AdvertisementBut Cecela says he's interested to see what happens with the Dutch-style mortgages newly on offer in the UK.

Persons: —, Lindsey Harn, Lindsey, Harn, Guy Cecala, Cecala, Melissa Cohn, Raveis, Cohn, he's Organizations: Service, Business, Lindsey Harn Group, Mortgage, Mortgage Finance, USA Locations: Netherlands, San Luis Obispo County , California, Europe

So we have to talk about the drama that has been playing out in the past week between OpenAI and Elon Musk. According to OpenAI, Elon Musk wanted majority, equity, initial board control, and to be CEO of this new for-profit subsidiary. It’s basically —casey newtonIt’s like, I’m going to find a way to follow your rule, but in the worst way possible. Like, working was one I thought that, oh, I’m going to work in this all the time. kevin roose[LAUGHS]: Well, I thought, like, I’m going to take some spatial videos.

Persons: casey newton Casey, kevin roose, casey newton, Kevin, casey newton What’s, Kevin Roose, Casey Newton, OpenAI, Will, Joanna Stern, Casey, it’s, kevin roose I’m, Elon Musk, It’s, casey newton Let’s, Elon, he’s, I’ve, casey newton What’d, there’s, you’ve, we’re, GPT, Sam Altman’s, that’s, AGI, Annie “, Sam Altman, who’s, isn’t, “, we’ve, ” casey newton Go, He’s, Ilya Sutskever, Greg Brockman, Ilya, casey newton Yes, Tesla, casey newton Well, they’ll, casey newton Oh, kevin roose It’s, don’t, kevin roose Will, casey newton Right, casey newton Mhm, kevin roose They’re, Microsoft’s Bing, Microsoft Bing, Bing, Apple, Europe — casey newton, Charles Duhigg, John Gruber, they’ve, casey newton It’d, — casey newton, they’re, They’ve, you’ll, Apple’s, casey newton It’s, I’ll, casey newton Sure, GDPR, you’re, kevin roose Really, let’s, kevin roose Casey, kevin roose —, Jonah Stern, casey newton Wow, Joanna, Let’s, kevin roose Joanna Stern, joanna, casey newton Hi, kevin roose Long, joanna stern, —, kevin roose We’re, Kara Swisher, kevin roose Don’t, I’m, casey newton Don’t, casey newton That’s, Neil Patel, Um, kevin roose That’s, kevin roose Sure, casey newton Great, KEVIN, IV, wearables, Fitbits, kevin roose Oh, hadn’t, casey newton —, casey newton I’ve, Joe Rogan Organizations: The New York Times, Elon, Apple’s, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Google’s, Facebook, Tesla, Big, European Union, Digital Services, Giants, Apple, Digital Markets, EU, Bloomberg, Digital, Spotify, General, Apple Vision Pro, Street, Apple Vision, Vision, New York Times, “, Housewives, Club, Ray, Tesla Chargers, Vision Pro, Apple Watch, Sony Locations: Los Angeles, Europe, what’s, Elon, OpenAI, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, Reddit, American, America, California, Florida, United, Mars, The

☆ The Election is Set
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s Biden vs. Trump. The general election is about to begin. He’s an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes. Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. This is not what many expected from a Biden-Trump rematch, especially after Democrats were resilient in the midterms and excelled in special elections by campaigning on issues like democracy and abortion.

Persons: It’s Biden, It’ll, Biden, He’s, Trump Organizations: Trump, Biden Locations: Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia

☆ The 2020 Election Is Back
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

To me, that’s the only real takeaway from Super Tuesday, when President Biden and Donald J. Trump won nearly all of the delegates at stake. The general election is about to begin. On paper, Mr. Biden ought to be the favorite. Yet according to the polls, Mr. Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. He also leads in most national polls over the last month, including a New York Times/Siena College poll last weekend.

Persons: It’s Biden, Trump, Biden, Donald J, He’s, Trump’s Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Biden, Trump Locations: Super, Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia

Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicMillions of voters in states across the country cast their ballots in the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, leaving little doubt that the November election will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. But in a race that is increasingly inevitable, a New York Times/Siena College poll found a critical group of voters who are making the outcome of that race anything but certain. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains who these voters are and why they present a particular threat to Mr. Biden.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Trump, New York Times, Siena College

The primary season is about to shift into overdrive with Super Tuesday, when Republican voters in 15 states will cast their votes. Polls suggest that former President Donald Trump is very likely to win most, if not all, of these contests. I spoke with Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, about when Trump’s nomination could become a lock. If the polls are right, there’s really only one scenario: Trump finding himself within easy striking distance of the nomination. Put it together, and Trump could easily win more than 90 percent of the delegates available on Super Tuesday.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nate Cohn, — Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson —, Nate, It’s, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, there’s, Trump, Haley, Israel’s, Haiyun Jiang, The New York Times Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, you’re, You’re, ” Trump, Netanyahu, Biden, Israel —, America’s, ”, John Bolton, — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Michael Gold Read Organizations: Republican, Trump, The, Democratic, Republican National Convention, California —, The New York Times, Univision, Republican Party, Hezbollah, Trump Republican Party, Biden, Democratic Party, “ Locations: Iowa , New Hampshire, California, Georgia, Hawaii , Mississippi, Washington, Arizona, Florida , Illinois , Kansas, Ohio, Gaza . Credit, Gaza, Israel, Lebanese, Rock Hill, S.C, Trump, Michigan

Apple | Spotify | Amazon | YouTube Listen and follow ‘Hard Fork’Google removed the ability to generate images of people from its Gemini chatbot. We talk about why, and about the brewing culture war over artificial intelligence. Then, did Kara Swisher start “Hard Fork”? We clear up some podcast drama and ask about her new book, “Burn Book.” And finally, the legal expert Daphne Keller tells us how the U.S. Supreme Court might rule on the most important First Amendment cases of the internet era, and what Star Trek and soy boys have to do with it. Today’s guests:Kara Swisher, tech journalist and Casey Newton’s former landlordDaphne Keller, director of the program on platform regulation at Stanford University’s Cyber Policy CenterAdditional Reading:

Persons: Kara Swisher, “, Daphne Keller, Casey Newton’s Organizations: Apple, Spotify, YouTube, Google, Supreme, Stanford Locations: U.S

☆ Debbie Dingell Breaks Down Michigan’s Primary
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Katie Glueck | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Debbie Dingell is big on tough love. “She’s very quiet,” President Biden joked recently as he campaigned with the Democratic congresswoman in Michigan, her home state. Move.’”For years, Dingell has sounded alarms when she detects peril for her party in Michigan, a critical battleground state. Overall, as of late Wednesday afternoon Biden had won 81.1 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary; the “uncommitted” effort drew 13.2 percent. (My Times colleague Nate Cohn has a full breakdown of the Michigan vote in his newsletter, The Tilt.)

Persons: Debbie Dingell, “, Biden, ‘ Joe, Dingell, Donald Trump, “ uncommitted, Nate Cohn Organizations: Democratic, Israel, Democrats Locations: Michigan, Gaza

☆ What Does the Uncommitted Vote in Michigan Mean for 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

In Tuesday night’s results in Michigan, around one in eight Democrats voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary — a protest of the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel and the war in Gaza. In some predominantly Arab American precincts in Dearborn, around three in four Democrats cast a protest vote for uncommitted. Having one in eight Democrats vote uncommitted in an uncontested primary is not wholly unusual. As recently as the last time a Democratic president sought re-election, in 2012, 11 percent of Michigan Democratic caucusgoers voted for “uncommitted” instead of for Barack Obama. Having three in four Democratic primary voters in Arab American communities do it, on the other hand, is an eye-popping figure.

Persons: “, Michigan Democratic caucusgoers, uncommitted ”, Barack Obama, Biden Organizations: Democratic, Biden, uncommitted, Michigan Democratic Locations: Michigan, Israel, Gaza, Dearborn, Arab

☆ Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s still early in the primary season, but a whiff of a possible polling error is already in the air. In Iowa, the final 538 polling average showed Mr. Trump leading Nikki Haley by 34 points with a 53 percent share. In South Carolina, Mr. Trump led by 28 points with 62 percent. In the scheme of primary polls, these aren’t especially large misses. But with Mr. Trump faring well in early general election polls against President Biden, even a modest Trump underperformance in the polls is worth some attention.

Persons: It’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Biden Organizations: Trump Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

Apple | Spotify | Amazon | YouTube Listen and follow ‘Hard Fork’This week’s episode is a conversation with Demis Hassabis, the head of Google’s artificial intelligence division. We talk about Google’s latest A.I. models, Gemini and Gemma; the existential risks of artificial intelligence; his timelines for artificial general intelligence; and what he thinks the world will look like post-A.G.I. Additional listening and reading:

Persons: Demis Hassabis, Gemma Organizations: Apple, Spotify, YouTube

☆ On Tom Suozzi and the Long Island Special Election - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Last week, Tom Suozzi won handily in the special election in New York’s Third Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by the serial fraudster George Santos — reclaiming the seat that Suozzi previously held. This was the latest in a series of Democratic victories in special elections, victories that seem on their face to run counter to polls showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race. As Nate Cohn, The Times’s lead polling analyst, has been at pains to point out, there isn’t necessarily a contradiction here. Those who vote in special elections aren’t representative of those who will vote in November, and they may be especially motivated by hot-button issues, especially abortion, that have favored Democrats lately. Furthermore, Long Island, on which N.Y.-03 lies, is an unusual place — something I, who mostly grew up there, can personally confirm.

Persons: Tom Suozzi, George Santos —, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Congressional, Democratic Locations: New, Long

Apple | Spotify | Amazon | YouTube Listen to and follow ‘Hard Fork’A year ago, a chatbot tried to break up Kevin Roose’s marriage. Ever since, chatbots haven’t been the same. We’ll tell you how. Then, we’ll talk through the latest ways the world is adapting to artificial intelligence. And finally, Aravind Srinivas, the chief executive of Perplexity, will discuss his company’s “answer engine,” a challenger to Google’s search engine that could reshape the web as we know it.

Persons: Kevin Roose’s, chatbots haven’t, Aravind Srinivas, ” Organizations: Apple, Spotify, Perplexity

☆ Allen Stanford Ponzi scheme: Victims look for recoveries 15 years later
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAllen Stanford Ponzi scheme: Victims look for recoveries 15 years laterCNBC's Scott Cohn reports on the 15 year anniversary of a major fraud case.

Persons: Allen Stanford, CNBC's Scott Cohn

☆ Stanford Ponzi scheme: 15 years later
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Scott Cohn | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStanford Ponzi scheme: 15 years laterCNBC's Scott Cohn joins 'Squawk Box' with a look back at the $7 billion Ponzi scheme run by Texas billionaire R. Allen Stanford.

Persons: CNBC's Scott Cohn, Allen Stanford Organizations: Stanford Locations: Texas

☆ The Republican House Majority Just Became Even Smaller
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When the Democrat Tom Suozzi won yesterday in a special election in New York, it narrowed the Republican majority in the House to the point where the party can only afford two defections on otherwise party-line votes. It also means that any three Republicans could tank a bill, or that they could threaten to do so to gain leverage. Suozzi’s eight-point victory in a district last won by a Republican could offer Democrats a playbook for competing on turf where President Biden and the party remain deeply unpopular. Suozzi broke with party orthodoxy on crime, taxes and, above all, immigration, calling on Biden to shut down the southern border. Suozzi’s election, however, probably doesn’t add much clarity to November’s presidential contest: Over the last three decades, there has been essentially zero relationship between presidential results and special election outcomes, our political analyst Nate Cohn wrote.

Persons: Tom Suozzi, Biden, Suozzi, Nate Cohn Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Biden Locations: New York

The vast majority — nearly $40 million — went to law firms working on his personal legal problems. But significant portions of their donations went to law firms defending Trump in civil cases involving his real-estate empire and its top executives, including Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Ivanka Trump. Only about $861,000 was spent on law firms working exclusively on political issues. Where there were gaps, we contacted law firms and individual lawyers who received money from the PACs. In 2021 and 2022 combined, Trump spent $16 million on legal fees through the Save America PAC.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, —, MAGA, Trump's, Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, Stormy Daniels, Jean Carroll, Robert, Clifford S, Michael Cohen, — Troutman Pepper Hamilton Sanders, Kellogg, Hansen, Todd, Figel, Frederick —, Madaio, Alina Habba, Michael Madaio, Hillary Clinton, James Comey, Mary Trump, general's, Carroll, Trump —, Joe Tacopina, Chad Seigel, Christopher Kise, Jesus M, Suarez, Eli Bartov, Bryan Woolston, Silverman Thompson Slutkin, White, Evan Corcoran, Todd Blanche, Cadwalader, Taft, Blanche, Attorney Alvin Bragg's, Daniels, Susan Necheles, John Lauro, who's, Steven H, Drew Findling, Jennifer Little, Jesse R, it's, Jim, John Rowley, Eduardo Munoz Alvarez, Allen Weisselberg, Weisselberg, perjured, ArentFox Schiff, Jeff McConney, Stanley Woodward, Stanley Brand, Carlos de Oliveira, John S, Irving of, Boris Epshteyn, Kenneth Chesebro, Troutman Pepper, Ivanka, Newsmax, Harmeet, Dhillon, Bradley T, Morvillo Abramowitz, David Pecker, Elkan Abramowitz, Greenberg Traurig, Ballard Spahr, Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Corey Lewandowski, Robert Mueller's, Jones, Andrew Kelly, It's, Forbes, defaming Carroll, he's Organizations: Service, Trump, Save America PAC, Make, Trump Organization, Politico, Reuters, New, Associates, Democratic National Committee, The New York Times, Times, Continental LLP, Inc, AP, Attorney, Capitol, Law, Taft, Brand Woodward Law, Irving of Earth & Water Law, Ivanka Trump, Republican National Committee, Save, MAGA, Curve Solutions, National Enquirer, Republican, MAGA PAC, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Georgia, Carroll, Manhattan, Florida, York, Washington, DC, Wickersham, Attorney Alvin Bragg's Manhattan, Fulton County , Georgia, codefendants, MAGAworld, Robert Mueller's Russia

☆ Opinion | The Challenges of an Aging President
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Because of his age and his determination to run for a second term, President Biden is taking the American public into uncharted waters. He is the oldest person ever to serve as president, is the oldest ever to run for re-election and, if he is successful, would be 86 at the end of his tenure. Ronald Reagan, by comparison, was an unprecedented 77 when he ended his second term in 1989. A remarkably broad swath of the American public — both Mr. Biden’s supporters and his detractors — have expressed increasing doubts about his ability to serve for another five years because of his age. His assurances, in other words, didn’t work.

Persons: Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden’s, —, Nate Cohn, Biden’s ‘, ’, Robert K, Mr, Hur, snappish, teleprompters, Donald Trump Organizations: “, Times, Mr Locations: Siena

Apple | Spotify | Amazon | YouTube Listen and follow ‘Hard Fork’Bluesky, the Twitter spinoff, is now open for public sign-ups. Can its dreams of decentralization fix social media? We talk with the company’s chief executive, Jay Graber. Then, the New York Times reporter Erin Griffith on how Adobe’s failure to acquire Figma has spooked tech companies and upset Silicon Valley’s start-up pipeline. And finally, updates on ancient scrolls and artificial intelligence, Google’s chatbots, and the fight between record companies and TikTok.

Persons: Jay Graber, Erin Griffith, Figma, Google’s chatbots Organizations: Apple, Spotify, YouTube, New York Times

☆ For Voters, When Does Old Become Too Old?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When a reporter asked President Biden on Thursday night about concerns about his age, his first instinct was to reject the premise. A clear majority of Americans harbor serious doubts about it, polls show. Of all the reasons Mr. Biden has narrowly trailed Mr. Trump in the polls for five straight months, this is arguably the single most straightforward explanation. It’s what voters are telling pollsters, whether in open-ended questioning about Mr. Biden or when specifically asked about his age, and they say it in overwhelming numbers. In Times/Siena polling, even a majority of Mr. Biden’s own supporters say he’s too old to be an effective president.

Persons: Biden, Biden’s “, ”, Donald J, Trump, Mr, Biden’s Organizations: Times, Mr Locations: Siena

Our listeners have lots of questions about polling. At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination. But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well. Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

Persons: Nate Cohn Organizations: Super, New York Times

☆ Biden Has Openings for a Comeback on Two Weak Points
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s approval ratings are as low as ever. An NBC poll this weekend was only the latest example, showing him trailing Donald J. Trump by five percentage points nationwide, with his approval down to 37 percent. But over the last few months, the conditions for a Biden comeback have gradually come into place. But for the first time since the 2022 midterms, Mr. Biden has an unmistakable political opening. The two big developments have come on what voters say are Mr. Biden’s biggest weaknesses on the issues: the economy and the border.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: NBC, Biden, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena

Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicPresident Biden has struggled to sell Americans on the positive signs in the economy under his watch, despite figures that look good on paper. That could have important ramifications for his re-election hopes. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The Times, explains why, to understand the situation, it may help to look back at another election, 76 years ago.

Persons: Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Amazon Music, The Times

☆ Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On one hand, there’s polling. On the other hand, there’s election results. Almost every time polls bring Democrats down, there’s a special election result to bring them back up. The limitations of relying on special elections, on the other hand, are not as well understood. Unlike polls, special election results are hard facts, which make them tempting to view as a clear read into the 2024 electorate.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, there’s, Roe, Wade Organizations: Trump . Voters, Daily Kos

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