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Asia-Pacific markets climbed on Monday as investors awaited China's Third Plenum and also assessed an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally over the weekend. David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, said in a note on Sunday that Trump would win the presidency, with an increased probability of a Republican clean sweep of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Key China economic data will be released on Monday, including the country's second quarter GDP numbers. China's economy is expected to expand 5.1% year on year, according to a Reuters poll of economists, compared to 5.3% in the first quarter. Japan's markets are closed for a public holiday.
Persons: Donald Trump, David Roche Organizations: Quantum, Trump, Republican Locations: Asia, Pacific, China
CNBC Daily Open: Trump assassination attempt
  + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Trump assassination attemptThe attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday left one attendee and the gunman dead, and two more attendees in critical condition. Trump was grazed by a bullet and treated at a local hospital, but released late Saturday night. Dimon inflation warningJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that inflation and interest rates may remain high despite recent easing in price pressures.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Thomas Matthew Crooks, Larry Hu, CNBC's Evelyn Cheng, Russell, CNBC's Michael Santoli, Wiz, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: CNBC, FBI, NBC, Macquarie, Communist Party of, Dow, Dow Jones, Depot, Caterpillar, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Wiz, Wall Street Journal, Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners, U.S Locations: Pennsylvania, Bethel Park, Pa, China's, Beijing, China, Communist Party of China, Israeli
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on other areas — such as high local government debt levels and a push for advanced manufacturing. "For real estate markets, I don't think it should be a focus of the plenum, because it's already [in a] state that everyone has a consensus [on]," Wang said. watch nowIn his view, excessive growth of the financial sector was behind the hollowing out of the U.S. industrial sector. "Consequently we must constrain the financial industry, including real estate. That's the underlying reason for tightened regulations on both real estate and finance."
Persons: Larry Hu, Hu, Xi Jinping, Deng Xiaoping's, Dan Wang, She'll, it's, Wang, hasn't, Yao Yang, Yao, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, Communist Party of, Macquarie, CNBC, Central Committee, Communist Party, Party, President, Hang Seng Bank, HSBC, HSBC It's, Committee, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, U.S, China Morning Post, Financial Regulatory Administration, World Bank, Big Data Locations: Communist Party of China, Beijing, China, United States, Big Data China
“What worries policymakers is the interest rate risk, which will rise once the dominant narrative shifts from deflation to reflation,” Hu from Macquarie said. If that happens, bond yields will rise as investors switch back into riskier stocks. The country’s “4,000 or so small and medium-sized banks” will be particularly vulnerable to the interest rate risk, he added. “The bubble formed by the rush of funds into the bond market is accumulating interest rate risks,” the Securities Times said in an editorial. Economic risksThe rapid decline in Chinese bond yields also poses significant risks to the economy.
Persons: , , Pan Gongsheng, SVB, Larry Hu, ” Hu, Macquarie, Hu, Zhang Jiqiang, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, People’s Bank of China, prudential, , Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Zheshang Securities, Securities Times, Japan’s Norinchukin Bank, Huatai Securities, Mizuho Securities Locations: Hong Kong, Silicon, United States, Shanghai, China, Beijing, SVB, outflows
Skyline, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam John Harper | Photodisc | Getty ImagesSoutheast Asia has emerged as a top choice for firms looking to diversify production away from China, including Chinese companies, amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. "Southeast Asia is well-placed to benefit significantly from the China+1 phenomenon as both foreign and Chinese companies diversify their supply chains and operations," said Kuo-Yi Lim, co-founder and managing partner of Southeast Asian venture capital firm Monk's Hill Ventures. "The ASEAN-6 region has benefited from a diversification of global and regional supply chain as well as the adoption of 'China+1' strategies. MalaysiaMalaysia has seen semiconductor firms including Intel, GlobalFoundries and Infineon setting up or expanding operations in the country over the last few years amid U.S.-China tensions. Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD plans to start commercial production of EVs in Indonesia in 2026, according to local reports.
Persons: Vietnam John Harper, Kuo, Yi Lim, Lim, Yinglan Tan, Kai Wei Ang, CNBC's, It's, Ang, Anders C, Johansson, , Sokon – Organizations: Photodisc, Getty, Monk's Hill Ventures, ASEAN, Hong Kong SAR, Apple, Ventures Partners, Samsung, BofA Securities, Intel, GlobalFoundries, Infineon, U.S, Monk's Hill Ventures . Industry, Malaysia that's, Stockholm China Economic Research, Stockholm School of Economics, Chery, Singapore Locations: Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Asia, China, Washington, Beijing, Monk's, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, U.S, Japan, European Union, China & Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Vietnam Vietnam, ASEAN, Malaysia Malaysia, Stockholm China, EVs
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPossible that the People's Bank of China deemphasizes MLF: Goldman Sachs economistHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the Chinese central bank's decision to keep a key policy interest rate unchanged and the outlook for its monetary policy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Organizations: People's Bank of China Locations: China
Crude oil futures rose Monday following their best week since April as traders sifted through mixed economic data out of China. U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent closed out last week nearly 4% higher, as analysts expect the market to tighten in the third quarter as summer fuel demand draws down inventories. Oil stockpiles should fall by 850,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "It's more of a sense that this market is likely to get tighter as we go deeper in summer," Croft told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" on Friday. Here are today's energy prices:"After three weeks of losses the oil complex finally made amends and gained some traction," said Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM.
Persons: Helima Croft, Croft, CNBC's, Tamas Varga Organizations: Brent, RBC Capital Markets Locations: China . U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is now facing 'a tale of two economies': Morgan Stanley economistRobin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, says the country's inflation print is a "great example" of the economy's "unbalanced growth."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing Organizations: China Locations: China
Read previewNvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang is in Taiwan this week, where he's getting rockstar reception and boosting the stock market. The drills started on Thursday, but Taiwan's stock market was little changed over the period. "In this case, the AI equity theme, physical investment in AI, and the wider upturn in electronic component demand are driving robust Taiwanese growth and the strong stock market performance," wrote Green. He added that an outright invasion of Taiwan by China is "very unlikely" due to high military and economic risk. "If the macro backdrop is positive and China remains far from achieving 'fortress-like' economic conditions, future sell-offs may offer attractive buying opportunities," Green wrote.
Persons: , Jensen Huang, Huang, Li Xi, Morris Chang, Lisa Su —, Pat Gelsinger, Cristiano Amon, Rene Haas, Rory Green, It's, Green Organizations: Service, China's People's Liberation Army, Business, Local, rockstar, Asus, AMD, Qualcomm, Semiconductor, PLA, Investors, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Nvidia Locations: Taiwan, China, Beijing, TSMC, Taipei, Taiwan's, GlobalData.TS, Ukraine, Russia
A real estate construction site in Wanxiang City, Huai 'an City, East China's Jiangsu province, May 17, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's sweeping moves on Friday to increase support for real estate will take time to show results, analysts said. Despite the news, S&P is still sticking to its base case from earlier in the month that China's property market is likely still "searching for a bottom," Edward Chan, director, corporate ratings, said during the firm's webinar on Monday. But he pointed out that for real estate to see significant stabilization, homebuyers' demand and confidence will need to improve after a market downturn of nearly three years. "We believe Beijing is headed in the right direction with regard to ending the epic housing crisis," Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
Persons: Huai, Edward Chan, Ting, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Ting Lu, P's Chan Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, BEIJING, Chief China Economist, China Locations: Wanxiang City, City, East China's Jiangsu, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ting Lu, China
“The policymakers recognize the urgency to prevent an outright property crisis,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Research. According to Goldman Sachs, the total value of unsold homes, unfinished projects and unused land in China is about 30 trillion yuan ($4.1 trillion). On Friday, Tao Ling, deputy governor of the PBOC, said the relending program could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of bank loans to support the buying. The Housing Ministry said Friday that local governments can instruct local state-owned enterprises to help purchase some unsold homes from developers. Just the beginningAddressing the oversupply of unsold homes is only the first step, experts say.
Persons: , Zhaopeng Xing, Goldman Sachs, it’s, Tao Ling, Ting Lu, Nomura, Helen Qiao, It’s, Tao, ” Jing Liu, Taylor Wang, Xing, Goldman, Donald Trump, Michelle Lam, Wei Yao, Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, ANZ Research, Goldman, People’s Bank of China, Greater China, Bank of America, Housing Ministry, HSBC, European Union Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hong Kong CNN — Beijing, Beijing, Greater, Société, Japan
Societe Generale economist discusses Chinese property market
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSociete Generale economist discusses Chinese property marketMichelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale, discusses the potential headwinds for Chinese markets.
Persons: Michelle Lam Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: China
Hong Kong CNN —China has unveiled wide-ranging measures to rescue its property sector, including asking local governments across the country to buy unsold homes from beleagured developers and easing rules on purchases. In a coordinated move, the People’s China of China (PBOC) announced that it will set up a nationwide program to provide 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in loans to fund state purchases of unsold homes. The 300 billion yuan provided by the central bank could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of credit to support such purchases, she estimated. Expectations that Beijing was preparing a plan to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes have successfully buoyed China stocks. On Friday, He also urged local governments to buy back or directly purchase land that has been sold to developers but not yet used.
Persons: Lifeng, Tao Ling, Larry Hu, , Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist, China Real Estate Business, Macquarie Group, Reuters, provident Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen speaks while presiding over a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the Treasury Department on May 10, 2024 in Washington, DC. The United States could see a significant response from China following any U.S. tariff actions, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday ahead of expected new tariffs targeting certain sectors this week. "President Biden believes that anything we do should be targeted to our concerns and not broad-based and hopefully we will not see a significant Chinese response. But that's always a possibility," Yellen told Bloomberg Television in an interview. Asked if the United States wants a trade war with China, Yellen said: "We're working to stabilize our economic relationship.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Biden, that's, Yellen, Yellen's, Joe Biden Organizations: Treasury Department, Treasury, Bloomberg Television, Reuters Locations: Washington ,, United States, China
US presidential candidates Biden and Trump both vow to get tough on China. EIU predicts worsening US-China economic and diplomatic ties over the 2020s. EIU doesn't expect US trade policies to significantly reduce China's role in global production networks. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US presidential election is less than six months away, and Democratic and Republican presidential nominee frontrunners Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both vowed to get tough on China.
Persons: Trump, EIU, , frontrunners Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: Biden, Service, Democratic, Republican, Economist Intelligence Unit, Business Locations: China
An employee works on the assembly line of intelligent machinery at a workshop on March 31, 2024 in Qingzhou, Weifang City, Shandong Province of China. Asia-Pacific markets climbed Monday as traders look toward the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, following another hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation reading Friday. March's core personal consumption expenditures, excluding food and energy, rose 2.8% from a year ago, and came in ahead of the 2.7% expected by Dow Jones. Personal spending rose 0.8%, ahead of a 0.7% estimate. In Asia, China's official purchasing managers index for April is expected Tuesday ahead of the Labor Day holiday on Wednesday, along with Japan's industrial production and retail sales data from March.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Locations: Qingzhou, Weifang City, Shandong Province, China . Asia, Pacific, Asia
"I don't think they lack for anything that they need," Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, said of China's forces. Military forces are being deployed nearer to Taiwan than ever, effectively shortening Taiwan's reaction time. Stockpiling of China's rocket force, too, suggests it would have more than enough missiles and rockets to target Taiwan. One common concern is that as China's military exercises around Taiwan have grown in frequency and size, the line between exercise and potential attack is becoming blurred. Xie Huanchi/Xinhua via Getty ImagesExperts, as well as US and Taiwan lawmakers and military officials, have long debated about the readiness of the People's Liberation Army as China's military is known.
Persons: , Lyle Goldstein, Stringer China, Xi, Thomas Shugart, who's, Shugart, Goldstein, Mike Studeman, Xi Jinping, Dean Cheng, haven't, Cheng, Xie Huanchi, There's, Kyle Amonson, Dane Egli, Annabelle Chih, Getty Images Goldstein, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Business, Defense, REUTERS, Taiwan's, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, US Department of Defense, China Economic, Security, PLA, Patriot, US, Center, New, New American Security, Marine Corps, China Coast Guard, Scarborough, ROSA, Military, of Naval Intelligence, Pacific Command, US Institute of Peace, of, People, Getty Images, People's Liberation Army, CCP, Soviet, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Japan, US Coast Guard, Chinese Communist Party, Democratic Progressive Party, Kyodo, Stills Locations: China, Taiwan, Asia, Liaoning, Beijing, New American, AFP, Hong Kong, Xinhua, DoD's China, Cuba, US, Tainan, Japan, Philippines
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser praised China for making solar panels and electric vehicles affordable. Saudi Arabia is fostering closer ties with China and wooing Chinese investments and business partnerships. Unlike the West, Saudi Arabia is cozying up to China. "There are lots of opportunities for China to invest in Saudi Arabia," Alibrahim told the media outlet. In March last year, China brokered a détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, prompting concerns over waning US influence in the Middle East.
Persons: Amin Nasser, Nasser, China's overcapacity, Janet Yellen, Olaf Scholz, China Nasser's, Faisal Alibrahim, Alibrahim, Jon Alterman Organizations: Saudi, Service, Saudi Aramco, World Energy, Financial Times, West, Nikkei, Aramco, Center for Strategic, International Studies, China Economic, Security Locations: China, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco, Saudi, Rotterdam, East Asia, Beijing, Saudi Arabian, Iran, United States
BofA economist discusses China's first-quarter GDP
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA economist discusses China's first-quarter GDPMiao Ouyang, Greater China economist at BofA Global Research, discusses what's behind her forecast for China's first-quarter gross domestic product.
Persons: China's, Miao Ouyang Organizations: BofA Global Research Locations: China
A batch of cars are ready to be shipped to overseas markets at the port of Taicang, Jiangsu province, China, April 9, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets extended their declines as the world awaits Israel's response to Iran's air assault over the weekend. On Tuesday, China's first-quarter gross domestic product numbers will be in focus, with the world's second-largest economy expected to grow 4.6% from a year ago. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 16,430, pointing to a weaker open compared to the HSI's close of 16,600. Japan's Nikkei 225 plunged 1.5% at the open, while the broad based Topix was down 1.04%.
Persons: China's, Kospi Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, Nikkei Locations: Taicang, Jiangsu province, China, Asia, Pacific, Australia
Dollar firm, yen under watch ahead of key US CPI release
  + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The inflation data follows a strong jobs report last Friday that blew past forecasts, raising questions on how soon and how much the central bank will cut rates this year. On the yen, Wednesday's CPI data will be "a big test for Japanese authorities," Kong added. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, held firm at 104.12. The kiwi climbed as high as $0.6077 versus the U.S. dollar, its strongest since March 21, before flattening at $0.60595.
Persons: Carol Kong, Kong, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of New, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Treasury, Traders, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, China
President Joe Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the phone Tuesday, a call the White House described as a way for the two leaders to "check in" and responsibly manage the strained U.S.-China relationship. During the call with Xi, the first such phone meeting since July 2022, Biden raised a host of U.S. concerns, according to a White House readout of the call. Specifically, Biden confronted Xi on China's "unfair trade policies and non-market economic practices," the White House said. The last time Biden and Xi met in person was in November, on the sidelines of a summit in Woodside, California. "To take it back to that meeting last November, both President Biden and President Xi agreed that they would try to pick up the phone a bit more," the senior administration official said.
Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, Biden, Janet Yellen, Antony Blinken, Yellen Organizations: White, U.S ., Russia, U.S, Treasury, Treasury Department, Trump Locations: U.S, China, Taiwan, Ukraine, November's, Woodside , California, Guangzhou, Beijing, United States, Washington
The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based intergovernmental group, notes that in 2023 China accounted for around 60% of global electric car sales. Yellen's remarks are to be delivered Wednesday afternoon at Suniva — a solar cell manufacturing facility in Norcross, Ga. It is reopening, in part, because of incentives provided by the Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax incentives for green energy manufacturing. The European Union, also concerned about the potential threat to its auto industry, launched its own investigation into Chinese subsides for electric vehicles last year. “In the past, in industries like steel and aluminum, Chinese government support led to substantial overinvestment and excess capacity that Chinese firms looked to export abroad at depressed prices,” Yellen said.
Persons: Janet Yellen, China's, ” Yellen, , Xi Jinping, Xi Organizations: WASHINGTON, , International Energy Agency, Treasury, Democrats, China, Trade Organization, U.S, Chinese Commerce Ministry, European Union, , Communist Party Locations: China, Georgia, Paris, Norcross , Ga, U.S, Beijing
New property sales reached a total of 1.06 trillion yuan ($147 billion) in the first two months of this year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The drop also marks a much faster pace of decline from the year-ago period, when new property sales dipped just 0.1%. Property investment fell 9% in the January-to-February period, which was faster than the 5.7% decrease registered during the same period last year. “The correction in property construction is still in its early stages,” Capital Economics analysts said in a research note on Monday. The growth in factory output might be driven by strong exports demand.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, , , Louise Loo, ” Loo, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Capital, Catering, , Oxford Economics Locations: China, Hong Kong
Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
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