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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Jill Carey Hall and Morgan Stanley's Sherry PaulJill Carey Hall, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. small and mid cap strategy, and Sherry Paul, senior portfolio manager director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, join 'Squawk on the street' to discuss why the market reacted the way it did to yesterday's FOMC minutes, how Paul characterizes the sentiment of her clients and Hall's take on where markets are now.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe think small caps are more adequately pricing in a recession, says BoA's Jill Carey HallJill Carey Hall, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. small and mid cap strategy, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the sell-off in the broader market and her strategy heading into the new year.
Bank of America is highlighting a group of stocks it expects to perform well as a recession begins. Strategist Jill Carey Hall is bullish on value stocks in particular right now. "As we shift closer to Downturn from Late Cycle, we highlight small cap stocks that could be well positioned in both regimes," she wrote in a recent note to clients. Carey Hall and BofA are positive on value stocks, which generally lagged in the last bull market but have a history of better performance in higher interest rate environments. "We would focus on free cash flow (FCF)/enterprise value (EV), which has historically been the best-performing small cap Value factor in both Late Cycle and Downturn regimes," Carey Hall wrote.
Investors have been rotating into tech and communication services stocks, which they see as defensive, Bank of America said Tuesday. BofA said clients last week sold stocks in all sectors except for tech and comm services. In the last two months, investors have been shifting out of cyclical sectors and into defensive ones, and inflows into tech and communication services have been outpacing defensive inflows. BofA last week highlighted downbeat demand commentary from tech companies. Higher interest rates can cut into the value of future profits made by tech and other growth companies.
Big Tech stocks like Meta and Microsoft plunged this week after disappointing quarterly reports. Experts on Wall Street think that earnings projections will decline as the economy slows. A terrible year for most tech stocks has taken a stunning turn for the worse this week as Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet all tanked after their latest quarterly reports. "As consensus estimates continue to come down, we expect stocks with positive revisions (which will grow more scarce) to continue to outperform within small caps." The 14 stocks below all have "Buy" ratings from BofA's analysts, and the firm thinks their earnings and sales will beat Wall Street projections when they next report their results.
Some leading strategists and experts are very positive on smaller companies right now. Heading into a recession, smaller companies usually look expensive compared to their bigger peers. Steven DeSanctis, a SMID-cap strategist for Jefferies, is another expert who is positive on smaller companies right now. But he notes that even though small caps have delivered better returns than large caps since June 30, investors are still pulling money out of small cap-themed ETFs. In fact, Fisher wrote that when small caps do this poorly, it can lead to powerful recoveries.
Investors are swarming back into the stock market at a near-record pace with equities in the middle of a rapid rebound, according to Bank of America. Inflows into single stocks, as a percentage of S & P 500 market cap, over the last three weeks were in the 99th percentile of history since 2008, Bank of America said. The Wall Street firm aggregated flows across many execution platforms and trading desks, and the data included hedge funds, institutional clients and private clients. Bank of America said its clients were net buyers of U.S. equities for six straight weeks with inflows into both stocks and ETFs. Still, some on Wall Street don't believe this rally has lasting power as the Fed still hasn't taken inflation under control.
"M&A pick-ups have coincided with times when small caps have rallied," BoA said in a recent note. US M&A deal activity has been highest when small caps are cheap relative to large caps. Bank of America recommended these 23 stocks from companies that are being targeted for acquisitions. Traders may want to look to the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) space for their next play, according to a recent Bank of America note. BofA identified these 23 Russell 2000-listed value stocks as potential M&A candidates.
Health and tech are providing heat in what is otherwise a lukewarm year for merger and acquisition deals, according to Bank of America. The bank reported 150 deals so far this year, which annualized comes in about 9% lower than last year. That makes sense given lower market returns typically make for a weaker deal landscape, said strategist Jill Carey Hall. Bank of America screened for small-cap companies that could have merger or acquisition potential. It also boosted its revenue outlook for the third quarter to between $112 million and $115 million from between $96 million and $100 million.
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