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☆ Rising caffeine levels spark calls for ban on energy drink sales to children
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Kailyn Rhone | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] FILE PHOTO-Prime energy drink cans sit on a shelf at Target in Brooklyn, New York, U.S., August 18, 2023. Rival products like Anheuser Busch InBev-backed (ABI.BR) Ghost energy drinks and Kim Kardashian's “Kimade” energy drink also have 200 mg of caffeine. In the U.S. and UK, no national regulations ban the sale of high-caffeine energy drinks. She added: "Any energy drink with a high dose caffeine in it, such as Prime Energy, is unsafe for children." “I got confused because when you first see the can, it’s hard to see where it says energy drink.

Persons: Kim Kardashian's, Holly Benjamin, Dr, Benjamin, Chuck Schumer, Alani, Logan Paul, KSI, Shick, ”, “, Bonnie Patten, TINA, GNC, Vanessa O'Connell, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: REUTERS, Prime Energy, Anheuser Busch InBev, Monster Energy, University of Chicago, American Academy of Child, Psychiatry, FDA, U.S, Ghost Energy, Congo Brands, American Medical Association, Walmart, Target, Energy, Kailyn, Thomson Locations: Target, Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Congo, Florida, Kailyn Rhone, New York

☆ White Sox halt Seattle’s 8-game win streak on walk-off error
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Field Level Media | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

August 23 - Tim Anderson scored on a throwing error in the 10th inning to lift the Chicago White Sox to a 5-4 win against the visiting Seattle Mariners, ending their eight-game winning streak on Wednesday afternoon. Justin Topa (3-4) started the 10th with Anderson on second base. Trayce Thompson blasted a two-run homer for the White Sox, who had lost five of their last six games and nine of their last 12. Anderson's RBI single in the third gave Chicago a 1-0 lead. Colas led off the ninth with a double off Andres Munoz before Andrew Benintendi delivered a one-out, pinch-hit RBI single to tie it 4-4.

Persons: Tim Anderson, Justin Topa, Anderson, J.P, Crawford, Trayce Thompson, Oscar Colas, Michael Kopech, George Kirby, Josh Rojas, Colas, Thompson, Jose Caballero, Rojas, Gregory Santos, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Andres Munoz, Andrew Benintendi, Sammy Peralta, Cal Raleigh, Rodriquez, Peralta Organizations: Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago, Mariners, Seattle, Cal, Thomson

☆ MLB roundup: Red Sox hand Yanks 8th straight loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The Red Sox challenged the play for obstruction and Kiner-Falefa's run was overturned. Belt hit two-run and solo shots, Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer had two-run homers and Bo Bichette added a solo blast in the rubber match of a three-game series. The loss broke the Braves' five-game winning streak and handed them their first home loss in eight games this month. Maikel Garcia's run-scoring single and Drew Waters' RBI groundout got them within a run with the tying run on second. Yoan Moncada hit a two-run double that tied the game and Oscar Colas made it 7-5 with a two-run double during the seventh-inning uprising.

Persons: Justin Turner, Wendell Cruz, Turner, Clay Holmes, Pablo Reyes, Michael King, Anthony Volpe, Isiah Kiner, Falefa, Connor Wong, Trevor Williams, Jordan Weems, Hunter Harvey, Mason Thompson, Kyle Finnegan, Finnegan, Jake Cave, Keibert Ruiz, Dominic Smith, Eugenio Suarez, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, Hunter Brown, Emerson Hancock, Houston, Max Scherzer, Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich, Scherzer, Taylor, Adrian Houser, Phil Niekro, Dallas Keuchel, Bryan Reynolds, Edouard Julien, Jhoan Duran, Cy Young, Hunter Greene, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, George Springer, Bo Bichette, Greene, Joc Pederson, Kirby Yates, Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, Patrick Bailey, J.D, Davis, Yates, Pederson, Kyle Hendricks, Seiya Suzuki, Miguel Amaya, Hendricks, Bobby Witt Jr, Michael Massey's, Maikel Garcia's, Drew Waters, Adbert Alzolay, Dairon Blanco, Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Bradish, Jorge Mateo, Brent Rooker, Nick Vespi, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, Eduardo Rodriguez, Logan Allen, Matt Vierling, Torkelson, Rodriguez, Allen, Paul Goldschmidt, Louis, Richie Palacios, Pete Alonso, Dakota Hudson, Andrew Vaughn, Lenyn Sosa, Andrew Benintendi, Zach Remillard, Aaron Bummer, Yoan Moncada, Oscar Colas, Charlie Blackmon, Michael Toglia, Harold Castro Organizations: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Yankee, Boston, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Philadelphia, MLB Little, Washington, Mariners, Astros, Seattle, Houston, American League, Brewers, Rangers, Milwaukee, Pirates, Dallas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Chicago White Sox, Blue Jays, Reds, Toronto, Cincinnati, Giants, Braves, Cubs, Royals, Chicago, Kansas, Kansas City . Kansas City, Orioles, Athletics, Baltimore, Oakland, Tigers, Detroit, Cleveland, Cardinals, Mets, New, White Sox, Rockies, Colorado, Thomson Locations: Bronx , New York, USA, Williamsport, Pa, Houston, Texas, Arlington , Texas, Minneapolis, Keuchel, Brandon, San Francisco, Atlanta, Kansas City ., Dairon, Oakland, Seattle, San Diego, New York, Denver

☆ Here's more evidence that it's really hard to make money picking stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

And only a handful of stocks have accounted for the bulk of wealth creation in the stock market in the last 30 years. The good news: U.S. companies are far and away the biggest drivers of stock wealth creation in the last 30 years. Stock market wealth is highly concentrated How can this be? Just five stocks accounted for 10% of global net stock market wealth creation over 31 years. The reason, as this paper demonstrates, is that stock returns are not normally distributed over time.

Persons: Hendrik Bessembinder, Johnson, Roche, Kwiechow, Tencent, Tesla, Nicholas Colas, Larry Swedroe, Swedroe, Colas Organizations: Global, CFA, Treasury, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart, Facebook, Samsung, Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nestle, U.S, DataTrek Research, Strategic, New York Stock Exchange Locations: United States, U.S, China

☆ The Fed's focus on 'real' rates is what investors should be watching
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Gauging the 'real' rate Chair Jerome Powell , following the July meeting, said his definition of real rates is the fed funds rate minus "near-term inflation expectations." With the fed funds rate running at 5.33% and the Michigan survey indicating one-year inflation expectations at 3.3%, that puts the real rate around 2%. Using the 10-year Treasury yield against the inflation rate, the real rate currently sits around 1.6% . The evidence, though, that higher real rates are holding back activity is mixed. Its focus on real rates could mean more hawkish policy, particularly if inflation expectations start rising again.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Powell, Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, University of Michigan, Fed, Primary Dealers Locations: Michigan

☆ Markets should brace for a turbulent few weeks as slow motion rate shock continues, DataTrek says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's partly because the Fed is unlikely to stop its quantitative tightening regime. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet aggressively over the past year, which could weigh on stocks. As of last week, the Fed has already reduced its balance sheet around $700 billion from the first quarter of 2022, down to $8.2 trillion from $8.9 trillion. Aggressive balance sheet tightening was one of the factors that weighed heavily on stocks last year, with the S&P 500 shedding 20% to notch its worst performance since 2008. "The current slow-motion long-term rate shock has a way to go, in our view, and equity markets will struggle as it evolves.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Fed, Service, Reserve, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ I would be cautious on consumer sensitive areas of the market, says Wilmington Trust's Meghan Shue
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI would be cautious on consumer sensitive areas of the market, says Wilmington Trust's Meghan ShueNick Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder and Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust EVP, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, stocks versus bonds, upcoming earnings and more.

Persons: Wilmington, Meghan Shue Nick Colas, Meghan Shue Organizations: Research, Wilmington Trust Locations: Wilmington

☆ MLB roundup: Michael Lorenzen tosses no-hitter in home debut for Phillies
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

St. Louis received contributions throughout its lineup, with Nootbaar collecting two hits, an RBI and two runs scored. Mariners 6, Padres 1Cal Raleigh hit a tiebreaking two-run homer in the eighth inning as Seattle defeated visiting San Diego. Matt Vierling had three hits, scored two runs and drove in another. Joey Gallo hit a two-run homer and Correa added a solo shot for Minnesota, which will try to salvage the split on Thursday. At the plate, Ohtani went 0-for-2 with two walks (one intentional) and a run scored.

Persons: Rob Thomson, Michael Lorenzen, Bill Streicher, Lorenzen, Dominic Smith flied, Johan Rojas, Cole Hamels, David Peralta, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Bobby Miller, Kyle Nelson, Peralta, Freeman, Will Smith, Austin, Michael Harris, Carmen Mlodzinski, Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies, Max Fried, Pierce Johnson, Raisel Iglesias, Bryan De La Cruz's, Josh Bell's, Jon Berti, Luis Arraez, Bell, Sam Moll, De La Cruz, Alexis Diaz, Tanner Scott, A.J Puk, David Robertson, Christian Encarnacion, Strand, Freddy Tarnok, Zack Gelof, Oakland's, Jonah, Jordan Montgomery, Esteury Ruiz, Jordan Diaz, Mark Canha, Justin Lawrence, William Contreras, Frelick groundout, Ezequiel Tovar's, Monasterio's grounder, Cole Tucker, Tovar, Canha bobbled, Profar, Bryse Wilson, Ryan McMahon, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Altuve, Alex Bregman, Cristian Javier, Austin Hays, Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Justin Verlander, Alonso, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, Suzuki, Paul Goldsmith, Lars Nootbaar, Louis, Jordan Walker, Giovanny Gallegos, Jose Siri, Jalen Beeks, Kevin Kelly, Nootbaar, Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Kole Calhoun, Casas, Alex Verdugo, Nick Pivetta, MJ Melendez, Seattle's, Emerson Hancock, Yu Darvish, Oscar Colas, Elvis Andrus, Mike Clevinger, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Spencer Torkelson, Matt Vierling, Miguel Cabrera, Zach McKinstry, Eric Haase, Alex Faedo, Tyler Holton, Joey Gallo, Correa, Bailey Ober, Ohtani, Mike Moustakas, Michael Conforto, Brandon Crawford's Organizations: Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Citizens Bank, Wednesday, Detroit Tigers, Phillies, Chicago Cubs, NBC Sports Philadelphia, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Braves, Pirates, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Marlins, Reds, Miami, Cincinnati, Athletics, Rangers, Oakland, Brewers, Rockies, Milwaukee, The Brewers, Astros, Orioles, Houston, Baltimore, Mets, Cubs, New, Chicago, Houston Astros, Cardinals, Rays, Hudson, Tampa, Blue Jays, Toronto, Cleveland, Guardians, Red Sox, Royals, Boston, Kansas City, Mariners, Padres, Cal Raleigh, Seattle, San, Sox, Yankees, Twins, Detroit, Tigers, Minnesota, Giants, cramp, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, USA, Angeles, Arizona, Phoenix, Texas, Colorado, Baltimore, New York, Tampa, St . Petersburg, Fla, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Toronto, Chicago, Minnesota, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Anaheim , Calif, Ohtani

☆ MLB roundup: White Sox overcome brawl, dispatch Guardians
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Chicago starter Michael Kopech (5-10) limited the Guardians to two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Texas starter Jon Gray (7-5) earned the win, allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Tyler O'Neill hit a homer for the Cardinals, who won for just the third time in their last nine games. Ryan McMahon hit his 100th career home run for the Rockies, who lost for the third time in four games. Cardinals starting pitcher Steven Matz (3-7) held the Rockies to one run on five hits and two walks in six innings.

Persons: Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr, Ken Blaze, Andrew Vaughn, Oscar Colas, Elvis Andrus, Jose Ramirez, Tim Anderson, Anderson, Ramirez, Emmanuel Clase, Mike Sarbaugh, Michael Kopech, Noah Syndergaard, Will Brennan, Blake Perkins, Victor Caratini, Angel Perdomo, Brian Anderson, Mark Canha, Yelich's groundout, William Contreras, Perkins, Sal Frelick's, Jason Delay, Jake Bauers, Justin Verlander, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Kendall Graveman, Torres, Nestor Cortes, Jose Altuve's, Jake Rogers, Aaron Civale's, Akil Baddoo, Tarik Skubal, Beau Brieske, Dansby Swanson, Jeimer Candelario, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Candelario, Michael Fulmer, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Bryce Elder, Robbie Grossman, Grossman, Jon Gray, Jake Burger, Will Smith, Rafael Devers, Jose Berrios, Manny Machado, Diego, Juan Soto, Sanchez, Seong Kim, Enrique Hernandez, Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Grisham, Alex Vesia, George Kirby, Julio Rodriguez, Kirby, Randal Grichuk, Shohei Ohtani, Joan Adon, Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, TJ Friedl, Trea Turner, Philadelphia's, Matt Strahm, Angel Zerpa, Craig Kimbrel, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Kyle Gibson, Gibson, Danny Coulombe, Yennier Cano, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Seth Brown, Jordan Diaz, Joc Pederson, Angel Felipe, Trevor May, Ryan Walker, Scott Alexander, Ryan Jeffers, Max Kepler, Michael A, Taylor, Kenta Maeda, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Ryne Nelson, Willson Contreras, Tommy Edman, Louis, Tyler O'Neill, Ryan McMahon, Steven Matz, Ty Blach Organizations: Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Progressive, Cleveland, Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, White Sox, Brewers, Pirates, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Yankees, Astros, New York, Houston, Tigers, Rays, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Detroit ., Cubs, Braves, Chicago, Atlanta, Rangers, Marlins, Miami, The Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Toronto, Boston, Padres, Dodgers, The Dodgers, Mariners, Angels, Seattle, Nationals, Reds, Cincinnati, Phillies, Royals, Kansas City, National League, Orioles, Mets, Baltimore, New, Athletics, Giants, Oakland, Bay Area, The Giants, Diamondbacks, Minnesota, American League Central, Cardinals, Rockies, Colorado, Thomson Locations: Cleveland , Ohio, USA, Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee, Seattle, Texas, Arlington , Texas, Miami, Toronto, Los Angeles, Anaheim , Calif, Washington, New York, San Francisco, Minnesota, Arizona, Minneapolis

☆ White Sox's win over Guardians marred by brawl, ejections
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Field Level Media | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/37] Aug 5, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY SportsAugust 6 - Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, Oscar Colas and Elvis Andrus homered for the visiting Chicago White Sox before their 7-4 win against the Cleveland Guardians was marred by a bench-clearing brawl in the sixth inning on Saturday evening. Jose Ramirez slid head-first into second base between the legs of Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson after delivering an RBI double. Chicago starter Michael Kopech (5-10) helped the White Sox end a five-game losing streak by limiting the Guardians to two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 innings. The White Sox tacked on two runs in the eighth on a single by Zach Remillard to make it 7-2.

Persons: Noah Syndergaard, Ken Blaze, Luis Robert Jr, Andrew Vaughn, Oscar Colas, Elvis Andrus, Jose Ramirez, Tim Anderson, Anderson, Ramirez, Emmanuel Clase, Mike Sarbaugh, Michael Kopech, Will Brennan, Robert, Vaughn, Colas, Andrus, Cleveland didn't, Andres Gimenez, Bryan Shaw, Kopech, Kole Calhoun, Jose Tena, Calhoun, Zach Remillard, Brennan Organizations: Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Progressive, Cleveland, White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Guardians, Thomson Locations: Cleveland , Ohio, USA, Cleveland, Chicago

☆ 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki warns of a market 'crash landing' after US credit rating gets slashed
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should brace for an epic "crash landing" to hit markets and the economy, Robert Kiyosaki said. The "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author pointed to Fitch's move to slash the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. "Brace for crash landing. Kiyosaki has been sounding the alarm for a steep recession and an epic stock market crash for years, calling for the greatest market crash in world history in 2021. Many economists, meanwhile, are warming to the idea that the US will see a soft landing of its economy.

Persons: Robert Kiyosaki, Dad, Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, —, Fitch, " Brace, He's ramped, didn't, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Larry Summers, Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon Organizations: AAA, AA, Service, Fed, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ This year's big rally has come to only a few days, again challenging market-timers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The massive 2023 stock rally essentially has come down to just a handful of trading days, offering more proof of how difficult it is to time the market. Of the 137 trading days so far, 74 have been positive and 63 have been negative. By contrast, last year's swoon on the S & P 500 could be traced to just five big losing days. "There is simply no other way for the S & P 500 to keep rallying," he wrote. "There are 113 trading days left in 2023.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, swoon, Colas Organizations: Big Tech, Tech, Federal Reserve

☆ The only reason to buy Tesla stock has nothing to do with its EV business, market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

When it comes to Tesla stock, the only reason to buy has nothing to do with its electric vehicle business. But according to a Wednesday note from DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, there's only one reason to buy Tesla stock at its current levels, and it has nothing to do with its EV business. The car industry is difficult to compete in, as evidenced by the current stock prices of legacy automakers, he observed. So when it comes to Tesla stock, don't just look at its EV sales, according to Colas. The remaining $200 billion to $300 billion of Tesla's current market valuation is assigned to the company's EV business, which is comparable to Toyota's current market valuation.

Persons: Tesla, Nicholas Colas, Ark, Elon Musk, Colas, Musk Organizations: General Motors, Ford, Honda, Mercedes, Service, DataTrek Research, Toyota Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Why better-than-expected earnings this reporting season may have trouble boosting market further
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

They are very high, and that may prevent stock prices from moving forward even if earnings reports exceed estimates. The earnings "apocalypse" — the collapse in earnings that many feared would be coming along with a serious recession in 2023 — has not materialized. What this means is that the price of the S & P 500 has gone up to due multiple expansion, not because earnings estimates have been rising dramatically. Bottom line: The S & P 500 at 4,400 with forward earnings at $230 today (19.2 multiple) is not nearly as appealing as the S & P was in January, when it was at 3,800 with forward earnings at $220 (17.2 multiple). It's the easiest path to get the overall market higher.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, —, Chris Harvey, Wells, Nick Raich, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek Organizations: BofA Securities, Delta, Microsoft, Nvidia, P Technology, Big Tech Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Coca-Cola to see less pain from looming WHO decision on aspartame - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Savyata Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

June 30 (Reuters) - Coca-Cola (KO.N) will only see a limited impact if the world health agency classifies the artificial sweetener used in its Diet Coke, aspartame, as a possible carcinogen, thanks to its scale of production, analysts said on Friday. But for Coca-Cola, whose low-calorie products accounted for a third of its total volumes sold in 2022, analysts said switching to a natural sweetener could be easier than many other companies that use aspartame. In the past, beverage makers like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have tweaked their ingredient composition to comply with evolving policy changes. However, PepsiCo could get an edge over its rival as it had moved away from aspartame to a blend of sucralose and acesulfame potassium earlier, CFRA Research said. Reporting by Savyata Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Charlie Higgs, Grzegorz, Savyata Mishra, Arun Koyyur Organizations: World Health, Redburn Ltd, Cola, PepsiCo, Conotoxia, Research, Thomson Locations: California, Bengaluru

☆ The good news and the unknowns for bank stocks after the Fed's latest stress tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Understandable because this year's stress tests came against a backdrop of uncertainty for the sector. The stress tests Starting in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis, bank stress tests were designed as a tool to ensure that so-called too-big-to-fail institutions could endure a similar calamity. WFC MS YTD mountain Wells Fargo vs. Morgan Stanley YTD performance It's worth noting that Wells Fargo is in a unique situation compared to its rivals. He added that the "stress tests only really address a macro environment where rates decline during a crisis. A sign is posted in front of a Wells Fargo Bank on April 14, 2023 in San Bruno, California.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nicholas Colas, Wells Fargo, Doug Butler, Wells, Colas, Chris Kotowski, Oppenheimer, Banks, Kotowski, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wells, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, Research, CNBC, Fed, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Rockland Trust, Citi, Equity, WFC, Wall, Wells Fargo Bank Locations: U.S, Silicon, Wells, Rockland, Wells Fargo, San Bruno , California

☆ Fed paper argues 'bleak' stock market returns could slide to 2% annually
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future," Smolyansky says. Part of the thesis is a gap between the stock market average return and the 2.5% rate of real economic growth. "Stock price performance above this 2 percent real rate could only be accomplished by the perpetual expansion of P/E multiples. DataTrek research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote that the paper's general assumption about taxes and interest rates and their correlation to stock market returns is "obviously true, but only to a point." Colas noted that interest rates in particular have been on the decline around the world, but global stock returns have been flat since 2008.

Persons: Michael Smolyansky, Smolyansky, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Federal Locations: Washington

☆ Here's why the market is ignoring a tell-tale sign that a recession is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

For just shy of a year now, the bond market has been signaling that a recession is on the horizon. And for the better part of the past six months, the stock market has been ignoring it. "The market's certainly not acting like it would if this 'Waiting for Godot' recession was right around the corner. "I would say it's much more about what started this conundrum, the combination of pandemic policy, pandemic reopening and hyperaggressive monetary policy. A key narrative from those looking for recession is the lag effects that Fed policy will have.

Persons: Godot, Hogan, Nicholas Colas, Colas, There's, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Riley Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, New York Fed, DataTrek Research, Wharton Business Locations: It's, U.S

☆ The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St

☆ As regional bank stock rally regains steam, investors should watch out for these spoilers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.

Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York

☆ It's Wall Street vs Wall Street as the recession debate rages on. Here's what David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach and 5 other experts have warned.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts are butting heads over the health of the economy, and what's to come. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the Rosenberg Research chief tweeted. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. "We're referring to this phenomenon as a Cardboard Box Recession, because items that are made (manufacturing) and shipped (trade) tend to go in a box.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Clif Asness, —, Rosenberg, Will, hasn't, we're, Gundlach, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Kleintop, Goldman Sachs, That's, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fibre, Association, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Locations: United States

CNN —Brittney Griner, the WNBA star who was freed from Russia late last year after being wrongfully detained, was harassed Saturday by a man described as a social media “provocateur” at a Dallas airport. A source familiar with the incident told CNN that around 9:30 am CT, Griner was at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport traveling with Phoenix Mercury teammates on their way to a game. CNN has reached out to local law enforcement and the DFW airport about the incident. “We remain steadfastly committed to the highest standards of security for players,” the statement reads. We demand better.”Unlike in the NBA, WNBA teams are not permitted to use charter planes for travel, CNN previously reported.

Persons: Brittney Griner, Griner, Viktor Bout –, ”, Biden, “, Brianna Turner, Lindsay Kagawa Colas, ” Colas Organizations: CNN, WNBA, Dallas Fort Worth International, Phoenix Mercury, DFW, “, Twitter, NBA Locations: Russia, Dallas, of, America

☆ The stock market rally faces a conundrum as inflation can't fall enough to please the Fed while the economy is this strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's because inflation may not fall enough while the economy stays strong. The firm warned that rate hikes could continue, which would be a headwind for the stock market. Colas predicted that the rally in stocks will continue through the end of June, though the market could face a conundrum in the third quarter as inflation and Fed rate expectations become repriced. Commentators have warned more rate hikes are in order before the Fed gets inflation fully under control, though higher rates will likely be a headwind for stocks. The S&P 500 slumped 20% last year amid the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, notching its worst performance since 2008.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, that's Organizations: Service, Research, Federal, Fed

☆ The stock market's fear gauge just hit its lowest level in 3 years as a new bull market kicks off
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street's fear gauge fell to its lowest level in 3 years just as a new bull market hits stocks. The decline in the VIX suggests that the stock market has entered a regime of low volatility following the bear market of 2022. A new bull market starts when an index surges 20% from the lowest close of its bear market. The Nasdaq 100 already entered its bull market at the end of March. "We wouldn't be surprised at all if this new bull market would continue much longer than most think and the VIX will also stay consistently beneath 20.

Persons: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Carson Group's, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Katie Stockton doesn't, we've, Stockton Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, DataTrek Research

☆ Yes, you can have a red-hot jobs market and a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.S. jobs market is still sizzling and the economy is heading for a recession: Both things can be true. May's nonfarm payrolls growth again stunned Wall Street, with the count climbing by 339,000, well ahead of Wall Street estimates that have consistently undershot the report since January 2022. However, there's an old adage on the Street that when it comes to recessions, the jobs market is always the last to know. Central bank policymakers specifically have targeted a slowdown in the labor market in their quest to bring down inflation. The weak services reading comes with an ISM manufacturing reading — most recently at 46.9 — in contraction for seven straight months.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Kumar, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Federal, Pantheon, Fed, Sri, Kumar, Services, Capital Economics, Research, Atlanta Locations: payrolls

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