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☆ Dollar muted as traders await Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, was at 103.19, just above the five-week low of 102.99 touched overnight. Markets are now pricing in about a 15% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike, showed the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month earlier, the market was pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 basis point hike. Such circumstances would usually be ripe for a return to a 50 basis point hike were it not for worries over financial stability, he said. The Australian dollar rose 0.36% to $0.6694, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.11% to $0.6199.

☆ Gold listless as investors strap in for Fed rate verdict
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies All eyes on Fed statement at 1800 GMTFed seen hiking rates by 25 bpsHawkish Fed, rates repricing could undermine gold prices - analystMarch 22 (Reuters) - Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as some investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook. Spot gold was flat at $1,939.59 per ounce, as of 0318 GMT, after dropping 2% on Tuesday. Investor attention is now on the Fed's decision scheduled at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "Key focus is on how the Fed communicates its forward guidance, in particular 'the higher for longer' rhetoric and dots plots," OCBC's Wong said. "If we do get higher dots plot, then that represents a still-hawkish Fed that is determined to fight inflation ... a potential hawkish repricing could undermine gold prices."

☆ Gold listless as investors strap in for Fed rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as some investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook. Spot gold was flat at $1,939.59 per ounce, as of 0318 GMT, after dropping 2% on Tuesday. Investor attention is now on the Fed's decision scheduled at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "If we do get higher dots plot, then that represents a still-hawkish Fed that is determined to fight inflation ... a potential hawkish repricing could undermine gold prices."

☆ Gold in tight range with focus on Fed's rate-hike moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,903.64 per ounce as of 0316 GMT, trading in a $6 range. The dollar index was down 0.1%, making bullion less expensive for overseas buyers, while U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher. "Investor allocation to gold remains low," analysts at ANZ said in a note, but added they expect the banking turmoil to "reinvigorate investor demand over the longer term." Spot silver rose 0.6% to $21.81 per ounce, platinum added 0.5% at $987.64 and palladium firmed 0.3% at $1,510.92. Reporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Gold bounces 1% as investors seek cover from US banking rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $1,882.70 per ounce, as of 0416 GMT. Gold rallied 2% on Friday after California banking regulators closed tech startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) SIVB.O. Meanwhile, investors also took stock of measures by U.S. officials to stem the financial fallout, and which have been cheered by stock markets on Monday. "When it becomes apparent that the risk is contained, gold will be less appealing as a safe-haven," City Index's Simpson said.

☆ Dollar treads water ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. "We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.

☆ Dollar finds footing as focus turns to Europe inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar lost 0.9% on the euro on Wednesday, its sharpest drop in a month. It was about 0.2% firmer on the euro on Thursday, with the common currency at $1.0649 in Asia trade ahead of inflation data due at 1000 GMT. The New Zealand dollar which rose 1.2% on Wednesday, fell 0.4% on Thursday to $0.6230. China's yuan settled back to 6.8928 to the dollar after logging its biggest jump of 2023 on Wednesday. Besides European inflation, euro zone employment and central bank minutes are due later in the day, as is U.S. jobless claims data.

☆ Gold faces worst month in nearly two years on U.S. rate-hike dread
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices eased on Tuesday and were headed for their biggest monthly loss since June 2021 as impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve sapped the non-yielding asset's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,816.19 per ounce as of 0317 GMT, after hitting a two-month low on Monday. "The question is still, 'How much more to hawkish Fed repricing?' "A pause in hawkish Fed repricing could see USD momentum ease and that can provide support to gold." Markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.403% in September.

☆ Instant view: Incoming BOJ chief Ueda says current low rates appropriate
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Feb 24 (Reuters) - Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday it was appropriate to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation has yet to sustainably and steadily meet the central bank's 2% target. "I think he's intentionally doing that, so that the market will calm down a little bit about policy change expectations." "I don't think Ueda has the same stance as (Haruhiko) Kuroda but it is not clear whether Ueda would tweak the BOJ policy as the market expected." CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE"No surprises there, we expected Ueda to take it slow and he's starting off echoing Kuroda's views. He has been out of touch with the BOJ policy making since 2005 and will take time even if he was to consider policy normalisation at some stage."

☆ Dollar steady on higher-for-longer rates outlook; yen volatile
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Friday as investors braced for U.S. interest rates to be higher for longer, while the yen was volatile, with incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda saying it was appropriate to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. The yen was volatile on the day and swung between gains and losses against the dollar as investors parsed through the comments from Ueda, who was speaking at the lower house confirmation hearing. The recent spate of strong U.S. economic data and hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials have led the dollar to erase its year to date losses. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other rivals, was up 0.019% at 104.580 and was set for a fourth straight week of gains. The euro was up 0.04% at $1.0599, while sterling was last trading at $1.2016, up 0.02% on the day.

☆ Bearish bets on Asian FX return on renewed woes over Fed rate hikes - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tejaswi Marthi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/4] A Singapore dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. However, recent comments from the Fed about hiking rates for longer dampened sentiment. They turned bearish on the Thai baht , Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit for the first time in three months. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):Reporting by Tejaswi Marthi in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar retreats as investors come to terms with higher-for-longer U.S. rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nearly all Fed policymakers favoured a scale down in the pace of interest rate hikes at the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting, minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting showed on Wednesday. However, they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise. "Many central banks around the world ... are trying to put an emphasis in their determination to combat inflation expectations," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC. The kiwi continued to draw some support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish rate rise on Wednesday, after the central bank signalled further tightening ahead to tame high inflation. "The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets.

☆ Gold firms in run-up to U.S. inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Meat bans, soaring gold prices and Britain voting to 'un–Brexit' could be on the cards for 2023, according to Saxo's Outrageous Predictions. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar retreated, with investors bracing for U.S. inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve's next moves in its monetary policy plans. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,857.22 per ounce, as of 0305 GMT, after falling to its lowest since early January in the previous session. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Several Fed policymakers have recently signaled that more interest rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

The BOJ’s YCC faces a reckoningThe surprise news left investors and analysts trying to parse Ueda's recent commentary. "There is probably a lack of clarity on Ueda's policy leanings at the moment, but at least it is clear that Amamiya (who is seen as a dove) is out. That removes one of the headwinds for the yen," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "The knee-jerk reaction in yen appreciation is more of a reaction to Amamiya being out of the race." I think the new team means that they will redesign the BOJ's monetary policy, not maintain the current policy," said Takayuki Miyajima, a senior economist at Sony Financial Group in Tokyo.

☆ Dollar defensive as investors remain cautious ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back foot on Friday after an overnight slide as investors tread with caution ahead of U.S. inflation data next week, with worries over an economic slowdown and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes hitting sentiment. OCBC's currency strategist Christopher Wong said the foreign exchange market is likely to trade sideways on Friday in the absence of key data and Federal Reserve speakers, putting the focus on the inflation data due next week. "The broad picture is the Fed doing policy calibration... but for the near term there is caution given recent Fed speakers and how disinflation trend may be bumpy." With inflation data due next week, focus has been on the litany of other Fed speakers, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin adding to the policy rhetoric. However, Wong cautioned, that if the disinflation trend proves to be entrenched then softness in the dollar will likely resume.

☆ Swedish crown gains on c.bank forecast for more hikes, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.

☆ Bullish bets on Asian FX ease as Fed rate-hike concerns weigh - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Himanshi Akhand | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Long positions on the South Korean won , the Singapore dollar and the Indonesian rupiah eased, while market participants turned bearish on the Indian rupee , according to a fortnightly poll of 10 respondents. The dollar is currently hovering near a one-month high after blockbuster U.S. jobs data last Friday boost expectations that the Fed may continue to hike rates to tame inflation. Investors also scaled back long bets on China's yuan , to a near one-month low, the Malaysian ringgit as well as Asia's best-performing currency this year, the Thai baht . Meanwhile, investors turned slightly bearish on the Indian rupee as concerns over a rout in local equities filtered into money markets. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rallied against a backdrop of gains for U.S. equity futures and a more hawkish Reserve Bank. Investors will closely watch consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for additional clues on the policy outlook. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. "From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Tuesday. His colleague Isabel Schnabel said it is not yet clear that the ECB rate hikes so far would bring inflation back to 2%.

☆ Dollar flat after Fed official comments; focus on CPI data next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar steadied just below recent peaks on Wednesday, as investors waited to hear from the Federal Reserve and pondered whether weak U.S. data may slow the pace of rate hikes. Williams' comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was underway. The Japanese yen weakened 0.11% to 131.54 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2064, down 0.06% on the day. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. Investor focus will now switch to the U.S. inflation data due next week on Tuesday.

☆ Gold rebounds but holds below $1,900/oz level on Fed fears, firm dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Twenty kilogram gold and silver bricks sit at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Gold prices regained some ground on Monday but a firmer dollar and concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve might keep hiking interest rates kept bullion below the key $1,900-an-ounce level. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,872.96 per ounce, as of 0257 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Jan. 6 earlier in the session. Those bets helped the dollar index rise 0.2%, adding pressure on gold by raising its cost for buyers holding other currencies. Spot silver edged up 0.2% to $22.39 per ounce, platinum was little changed at $973.88 and palladium added 0.2% to $1,626.38.

☆ Currencies take a breather as investors await Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The dollar was broadly flat against major currencies on Wednesday ahead of an eagerly-awaited Federal Reserve policy decision that investors hope will signal the end of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hiking cycle. "Recent progress on inflation has encouraged market participants to expect the Fed to quickly pivot from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Since signs of labour market loosening were limited, the Fed would likely pair a smaller rate hike this week with hawkish communication, she said. The Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps in December after four successive 75 bps hikes. It said then that interest rates might need to be higher for longer to tame inflation.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.

[1/2] A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. At a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The central bank also made no change to its guidance that allows the 10-year bond yield to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. The decision to keep settings unchanged sent the dollar surging nearly 2% against the yen, its biggest one-day percentage jump since June 17. It also revised up the inflation forecast for fiscal 2024 to 1.8%, from 1.6% seen three months ago.

☆ Gold prices gain on hopes of smaller U.S. rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices advanced to an eight-month high on Monday, as a weaker dollar made greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers while hopes of less-aggressive U.S. rate hikes also lifted sentiment. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $1,878.55 per ounce, as of 0256 GMT, its highest level since May 9, 2022. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.7% to $1,883.20. The dollar index slipped 0.3%. Market participants will now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at a central bank conference in Stockholm on Tuesday and U.S. consumer price index data due on Thursday.

☆ Gold scales 8-month high as Fed slowdown prospects lift appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.7% at $1,878.55 per ounce, as of 0256 GMT, its highest level since May 9, 2022. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.7% to $1,883.20. The dollar index slipped 0.3%. Market participants will now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at a central bank conference in Stockholm on Tuesday and U.S. consumer price index data due on Thursday. "This week's CPI data would be key.

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