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Mike Segar | ReutersMarkets are "fairly complacent" about the risks of a second Donald Trump presidency, which could trigger a "tantrum" in long-duration bond markets, according to Guillermo Felices, principal and global investment strategist at PGIM. watch nowSome analysts are also looking ahead through a fiscal and geopolitical lens to November's U.S. presidential election and beyond. 'Fiscal risk' at a time of high deficit The crucial point, Felices acknowledged, is America's deteriorating fiscal position in recent decades. "The market is not really focusing too much on the potential upside risks to yields that are associated with this potential repricing of term premia. [Having] fiscal risks with the sort of deficit that the U.S. is running is a really, really important one that the market will have to come to terms with again."
Persons: Donald Trump, Mike Segar, Guillermo Felices, Felices, Trump, Fitch Organizations: U.S, Republican, New, Reuters, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Fed, CNBC, Trump, Bank of England Locations: New Hampshire, Rochester , New Hampshire, U.S
The latest financial results and commentary from the world's biggest third-party chipmaker gave a big boost Thursday to Apple and semiconductor stocks, including artificial intelligence leader Nvidia . Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company , whose customers include the likes of Apple, Nvidia and fellow Club stock Broadcom , said its fourth-quarter revenue from smartphone chips grew a better-than-expected 27% on a quarterly basis. "Let's not overthink it: Apple and Nvidia are the two that are most obvious" beneficiaries from TSMC's results, Jim Cramer said Thursday. Previously, TSMC had said AI chips were on track to become a "low teens" percentage of its revenue. TSMC's results and guidance Thursday offer so-called "read-throughs" on its customers, many of which are Club stocks such as Apple, Nvidia and Broadcom.
Persons: chipmaker, downgrades, TSMC, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, TSMC's bullishness, Linde, that's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Club, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Bank of America, Wall Street, Google, Devices, AMD, TSMC, KeyBanc Capital, LIN, Linde, DuPont, Electronics, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, Hsinchu, Taiwan
This is Wayfair's third restructuring since summer 2022, and it is expected to save the company about $280 million. The bank said Hertz's short-term profitability would be hampered by electric vehicle repair costs, rising operating expenses and vehicle depreciation. Spirit Airlines — Shares surged more than 20% after the budget airline raised its fourth-quarter forecast . Schlumberger reported adjusted earnings of 86 cents per share on $8.99 billion of revenue, higher than the 84 cents per share on $8.95 billion of revenue expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG. Celsius Holdings — Shares of the drink company slid more than 10% following a downgrade to neutral from buy at Bank of America.
Persons: Hertz, Wells Fargo, bullishness, Goldman Sachs, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alexander Harring, Tanaya Macheel, Jesse Pound, Pia Singh, Samantha Subin Organizations: Jefferies, Spirit Airlines —, Spirit Airlines, iRobot, Amazon, Street, European Union, Texas, UBS, Nvidia, Semiconductor, Devices, Travelers Companies, LSEG, Schlumberger, Broadcom, Bank of America, State Locations: European
If you want a sense of how frothy things have become, look no further than the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. This is a survey of roughly 250 global fund managers and is a very good gauge of sentiment among fund managers. 1-month average returns: 1.9% (vs. 0.6% in all 1-month periods) 3- month average returns: 3.3% (vs. 1.9%) 1- year average returns: 7.5% (vs. 7.9%) Source: StoneX While eight-day streaks are rare, the Dow has done even better. Last July, th e Dow broke a 13-day winning streak , the likes of which were last seen in 1987. It's currently at an RSI (Relative Strength Indicator, a gauge of momentum over the past 14 trading days) of 85.
Persons: Dow, Matt Weller, That's, Weller, It's Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Federal, Dow Locations: China
Broadcom stock spikes to new yearlong high
  + stars: | 2023-12-11 | by ( Jake Piazza | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Broadcom shares jumped 9% Monday after Citigroup resumed its coverage of the stock with a buy rating and updated its price target to $1,100. Broadcom bought VMware in November to bolster its cloud technology infrastructure that it sells to other businesses. Citigroup's bullishness is largely because it believes Broadcom is well-positioned to earn money from the AI boom. "We expect sales from AI infrastructure to double from $4 billion in F23 (11% of F23 sales) to over $8 billion in F24 (17% in F24 sales)," the analysts wrote. Broadcom reported solid earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter last Thursday, which gave its shares a 2.4% boost to $944.30 at Friday's market close.
Persons: it's, bullishness, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Broadcom, Citigroup, VMware, Google, Comcast, Nvidia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRetail sector seeing return to pre-pandemic shopping trends, says JPMorgan's Matthew BossMatthew Boss, JPMorgan, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how Boss is picking winners in the retail space this holiday season, if the retail bullishness extends into 2024, and how margins will be impacted by lower margins.
Persons: JPMorgan's Matthew Boss Matthew Boss Organizations: JPMorgan
In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel
Citi is so bullish on one biotech firm that it has given its shares a target price that represents around 800% upside. In a Nov. 22 note, Citi gave the stock a buy rating and a price target of $90, representing potential upside of around 818% from Tuesday's price. However, the bank cautioned that the stock is high risk, given the "typical volatility" of biotech stocks and uncertainty associated with clinical trials. According to FactSet, analysts covering the stock give it average price target upside of 385% and a buy rating of 88%. On FactSet, the highest estimate came from Oppenheimer, which gives it potential upside of over 600%.
Persons: , Oppenheimer, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Citi isn't, BMO Capital Markets, BMO, P Biotech ETF, Biotech Locations: U.S
Unemployment has ticked up, wage growth continues to decline, and the "quits rate" has leveled off from its pandemic surge. The CFO view of the labor market also filters through to their broader view of the economy and markets, which has changed in other considerable ways over the four quarters of surveying by CNBC this year. Almost a year later, the market has rallied on the conviction that inflation has been vanquished and the hikes are finished. But the CFO view of when inflation returns to 2% keeps getting pushed farther out into the future. That's more hawkish than the market, which currently is betting the Fed may start cutting by May.
Persons: CFOs, that's, it's, Jackson Organizations: CNBC, Stone, Nasdaq, PPI, Inflation, Walmart, Dow Jones, Dow, Fed Locations: Detroit, Hollywood, CFOs, it's
RBC upgrades Boeing, sees improving sentiment around the stock
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRBC upgrades Boeing, sees improving sentiment around the stockKen Herbert, aerospace & defense analyst at RBC Capital Markets, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the main element of Herbert's bullishness on Boeing's stock, why the setup is favorable for the airplane maker, the historical perspective regarding RBC's new price target for Boeing.
Persons: Ken Herbert Organizations: RBC, Boeing, RBC Capital Markets
The benchmark S&P 500 will climb 12% to hit a new all-time high of 5,100, strategists said. Much of Wall Street has turned bullish on the index, which has defied gloomy predictions to rack up stellar gains this year. AdvertisementDeutsche Bank has become the latest big name on Wall Street to issue a bullish stock-market forecast for 2024, with analysts predicting the S&P 500 will soar to a fresh all-time high next year. AdvertisementWall Street bullishnessThere's clearly an optimistic atmosphere amongst stock-pickers right now, with Deutsche Bank far from the only big name on Wall Street to predict the S&P 500 could climb to record highs. Burnishing Chadha's credentials is the fact that he was one of the only Wall Street strategists who called this year's surprise stock-market rally.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, , Binky Chadha, Tesla, Société Générale, Brian Belski, Burnishing Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital, Deutsche, Business, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Facebook, Nasdaq, Dow Jones
Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.
Persons: , Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC
The S&P 500's sector correlations suggest the current rally can go to year-end, DataTrek Research said. The indicator is a sign of investor confidence, and it's hovering near levels seen around bull markets of the past. AdvertisementThe stock market is in the midst of a strong November rally, and according to DataTrek Research, the gains could last through year-end thanks to a key historical trend. "When [investors] see clear skies ahead, correlations tend to be low as they pick and choose between individual sectors and stocks," Colas and Rabe said. When correlations hover above that level, stocks tend to be under pressure; when they are below, stocks tend to rally like they did in 2020-2021, and between January and July of this year.
Persons: , Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Research, Service
Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsAs in previous weeks, sales in the most recent week were led by crude (-16 million barrels), especially NYMEX and ICE WTI (-11 million), with some extra sales in Brent (-5 million). Funds held a larger position of 171 million barrels in Brent, but that was in only the 28th percentile, still significantly bearish. Funds purchased 9 million barrels over the seven days ending on Nov. 14 and had purchased a total of 25 million barrels since Oct. 17. The net position had doubled to 51 million barrels (46th percentile) on Nov. 14 up from 26 million barrels (19th percentile) four weeks earlier. Related columns:- U.S. gasoline stocks add to crude oil turbulence (November 17, 2023)- U.S. oil prices slide as stocks accumulate at Cushing (November 16, 2023)- Oil traders turn bearish, daring OPEC⁺ to cut again (November 14, 2023)- Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves (November 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: ICE, Funds, ICE WTI, Fund, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Brent, NYMEX, Saudi Arabia, Russia, bearishness, United States, Cushing
Friday's early calls include an upgrade to a restaurant software stock and a big downgrade to a solar name. The bank downgraded Unity stock to neutral from outperform, also slashing its target price to $20 from $55. Analyst Doug Anmuth's updated price target of $510 could mean that there's still 17% room for the stock to go. Analyst Jonathan Block's price target of $70 signifies a 13% upside from the stock's Thursday closing price of $62.16. Koning has a price target of $18 per share, implying upside of nearly 30% over the next 12 months.
Persons: Baird, Tim Nollen, Lisa Kailai Han, Carlo Santarelli, — Lisa Kailai Han, JPMorgan downgrades, Drew Chamberlain, Doug Anmuth's, Anmuth, NFLX, Henry Schein, Jonathan, Freyr, BTIG, Gregory Lewis, FREY, Lewis, Stephens, Joshua Long . Long, Long, Portillo's, Mgmt, Chris Dendrinos, Dendrinos, Baird Baird, David Koning, Koning, — Fred Imbert, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Bank of America, Macquarie, Unity, Wynn Resorts, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, JPMorgan downgrades Enviva, Netflix, FR, European Union, RBC Capital, FTC Solar Bank of America, FTC Solar, FTC Locations: Macquarie, Unity, UAE, Boston, Norway, Portillo's, Thursday's
Tech conglomerate and investor SoftBank has lost $14.4 billion so far on WeWork. SoftBank was one of WeWork's most bullish backers, predicting it would be worth $100 billion. AdvertisementAdvertisementSoftBank has lost a cumulative $14.4 billion through its disastrous bet on the now-bankrupt WeWork , per the group's July-September earnings. SoftBank overall posted a loss of $6.2 billion (¥931.1 billion) for July to September, compared a profit of $20 billion the same period last year. AdvertisementAdvertisementFuelled with conviction from SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son and billions in investment, WeWork sailed to a colossal $47 billion valuation at its peak in 2019.
Persons: SoftBank, , Masayoshi Son, WeWork, Adam Neumann, Neumann, Son, Jack Ma, Alibaba . Son Organizations: Service, WeWork, Alibaba, Visual China, Getty Locations: Alibaba .
The wave of sales has reversed much of the 398 million barrels purchased between the end of June and the middle of September. WTI SQUEEZE ENDSIn the seven days ending on October 31, selling was led by crude (-78 million barrels), especially NYMEX and ICE WTI (-62 million barrels), with a smaller contribution from Brent (-16 million). The remaining position (153 million barrels) was the lowest for 16 weeks since July 11 (128 million barrels). Crude inventories around the NYMEX delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma depleted to just 22 million barrels at the end of September from 43 million barrels at the end of June. But most of the sales have come in European gas oil (-49 million barrels) rather than U.S. diesel (-6 million) reflecting the poor outlook for the European economy.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Cushing, John Kemp Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, ICE, diesel, Funds, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Loving County , Texas, U.S, North America, Europe, China, Iran, Israel, Cushing, Oklahoma, WTI, NYMEX
Recent stock market strength may be short-lived, according to Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson. Before last week, stocks had tumbled more than 10% from their July high to an October low. "While we will keep an open mind, the move thus far looks more like a bear market rally rather than the start of a sustained upswing, particularly in light of weaker earnings revisions and macro data," Wilson said. Wilson remains cautious on corporate earnings despite a stronger-than-expected earnings season, and said that he still doesn't see market support coming from either technical or fundamental factors. "Over the past 2 months, both earnings revisions breadth and performance breadth have deteriorated significantly," Wilson said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Stocks, November's bullishness, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Google Locations: Treasurys
An electronic board shows stock indexes at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China, March 21, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This is their best run in a year, powered by easing financial conditions in the form of lower U.S. bond yields and a weaker dollar, and renewed faith in the U.S. economic 'soft landing' scenario. Having under-performed global and developed market benchmarks last week, Asian stocks could be set to outperform this week. Skeptical foreign investors will need more than one month of slowing imports and exports decline though.
Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Korea, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, U.S, India, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Australia
A once-in-a-generation opportunity is coming for the stock market, according to investment chief Richard Bernstein. AdvertisementAdvertisementBrace for a big investing opportunity that's about to come for stocks — and not in an area of the market investors may be expecting. That's according to Richard Bernstein, the CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a $16 billion asset manager. That coming pendulum swing in market leadership is a "once-in-a-generation" buying opportunity brewing among forgotten and under-loved areas of the market, Bernstein says. Richard Bernstein Advisors"Because growth is starting to accelerate, it makes less and less sense to pay a premium for growth.
Persons: Richard Bernstein, , Bernstein, Merrill Lynch —, RBA, Russell, Bernstein isn't Organizations: Service, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Amazon, Bank of America
Indian economy regains its swagger as China stumbles
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New Delhi CNN —India’s economy is like an elephant. India’s economy is currently worth nearly $3.5 trillion, making it the world’s fifth largest. “India’s economy is comfortably placed to grow at an annual rate of at least 6% in the coming few years,” Barclays said. But even as India’s heft is increasing, it is far from recreating the economic miracle China unleashed decades ago. It will, no doubt — though it won’t be enough to shield the world economy should China’s economy stumble badly,” they added.
Persons: Narendra Modi, , Eswar Prasad, Modi, Prasad, Ludovic Marin, Mukesh Ambani’s, Gautam Adani’s, Willy Shih, Frederic Neumann, Justin Feng Organizations: New, New Delhi CNN, Economic, Cornell University, International Monetary Fund, China, Barclays, IMF, ” Barclays, Hindustan Times, Modi, bonanza, Unified, Bharat, Getty, Bank, Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, Apple, Harvard Business School, HSBC Locations: New Delhi, India, Switzerland, Davos, , , China, ” New Delhi, Sewri, Mumbai Bhushan, AFP, Beijing, Washington
The S&P 500 on Thursday climbed 1.9% to log its best one-day gain since April. The S&P 500 has gained an average 6.7% from November to April since 1990, according to CFRA data. “We remain comfortable with our long-standing 3,900 year-end target for the S&P 500,” he wrote in a note on October 29. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at about 4,318. “The acquisition of Comcast’s stake in Hulu at fair market value will further Disney’s streaming objectives,” the company said in a short statement.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , George Smith, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Liam Reilly, Oliver Darcy, , Read, Hanna Ziady, Andrew Bailey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal, Treasury, LPL, Disney, Hulu Disney, Comcast, Bank of England, of England, ” Bank of England Locations: New York, Hulu, Israel
Plenty of bond investors have been burned calling a bottom in a selloff that has taken Treasuries to the cusp of an unprecedented third straight year of losses. One potential near-term pitfall is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data, which could revive expectations of Fed hawkishness if they come in stronger than expected. The rise in Treasury yields has reached far beyond the bond market. The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July high, as rising bond yields offer investment competition to equities while threatening to raise the cost of capital for companies. “The market is running with the idea that the Fed is done hiking, which they may or may not be,” he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell nodded, Bonds, , Jack McIntyre, , ” McIntyre, Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne, Bond, Josh Emanuel, Powell, We've, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, ” Wilensky, Noah Wise, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S . Treasury, Brandywine, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wilshire
A stock with a 14-day RSI greater than 70 is considered to be overbought and at risk of a pullback. Here are some of the most overbought names: Sports apparel retailer Nike has a 14-day RSI of 81.89, and just under half of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy. Lockheed Martin is another one of the most overbought companies in the S & P 500. The U.S. defense contractor scored a 14-day RSI of 77.69, with a consensus price target implying 6.8% upside. Also on the oversold list is pharmaceutical company Moderna , which has a 14-day RSI reading of 15.5.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Lockheed Martin, Invesco, Jason Haas, Haas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nike, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Insurance, Cardinal Health, Allstate, Humana, Investment, Hasbro, Wall, Bank of America, Monopoly, Moderna, Pfizer, FedEx Locations: U.S, Lowe's
The token spiked 10% briefly on Tuesday after a false report said the SEC approved BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF. Bullishness around a the spot bitcoin ETF is high, with calls growing for the SEC to sign off on a first-ever fund. AdvertisementAdvertisementBitcoin moved above $30,000 on Friday, spiking above the closely watched threshold before paring some gains, as a week of bullishness around a spot bitcoin ETF helps push the token higher. Hopes for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund have helped fuel the latest rally. The SEC has already approved bitcoin futures ETFs, though regulators have turned down bitcoin spot ETF applications repeatedly in recent years.
Persons: Bitcoin, , Mike Novogratz, Novogratz, Gary Gensler Organizations: SEC, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, Fidelity, Galaxy Digital, House Financial Services Locations: New York, BlackRock
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