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Read previewThe July jobs report has thrown the economy's soft landing into question — and the Federal Reserve is taking the heat. AdvertisementGiven the jobs report, Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that "the soft landing for the US labor market is in peril." Advertisement"The problem is there's very few indications that this is the labor market we're going to stick around in," Bunker said. "It's clear that momentum of the labor market continues to be downward. "But I continue to stand by the idea that this is still part of the soft landing that people thought was not possible."
Persons: , it's, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Jerome Powell, Julia Pollak, It's, We're, Bunker, Powell, Harris, doesn't, Labor Julie Su, Su, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, North America, New Century Advisors, Fed, Biden, Labor
But for anxious Democrats hoping Jill Biden will step in, don’t hold your breath. Jill Biden has been by his side for almost that entire time. Jill Biden believes that there is no one else who can defeat former President Donald Trump who poses a serious threat to democracy. President Biden and first lady Jill Biden, right, arrive on Marine One with granddaughters Natalie Biden, from left, and Finnegan Biden in East Hampton, N.Y. on Saturday -- two days after his disappointing debate performance. “Jill Biden, I begin to suspect, doesn’t want to talk about her feelings.
Persons: Kate Andersen Brower, Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Kate Brower katebrower.com Joe Biden, Catherine “ Jean ” Finnegan Biden, Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, Hunter, Jill, Joe isn’t, , , Joe, , you’ve, ’ ”, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Melania Trump, à la Nancy Reagan, Nancy Reagan, Natalie Biden, Finnegan, Evan Vucci, Symone Sanders, Sanders, ” Jill, misspoke, Lady Jill Biden, Norman Jean Roy, Vogue Jill Biden, don’t, Biden’s, Camp David, “ Jill Biden, doesn’t, Singer, Trump, Hillary Clinton, Rosalynn Carter, Ronald Reagan, Rosalynn, Jimmy, Betty Ford, Carter, , Lady Bird Johnson, Hubert Humphrey, John F, Lady Bird Organizations: White, CNN, New, Stonewall, Republican, Finnegan Biden, Biden campaign’s, Vogue Magazine, Vogue, CBS, Camp, New York Times, Trump Locations: East Hampton, N.Y, Los Angeles, New Hampshire, Washington, Minnesota, Vietnam
Democrat candidate, U.S. President Joe Biden, and Republican candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, attend a presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., June 27, 2024. "Yes, it was a bad performance," South Carolina's Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn, a close Biden ally, said on CNN's "State of the Union." Biden and Trump are scheduled for a second debate on Sept. 10, though it is unclear whether both candidates will follow through. In the meantime, the Biden campaign has been raking in large fundraising hauls in the wake of the debate. As of Sunday morning, the campaign had raised $33 million since Thursday, $26 million of which came from grassroots donors, according to Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, cringing, Jim Clyburn, Biden, Trump, Clyburn, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hakeem Jeffries, Sen, Chris Coons, Raphael Warnock, Nancy Pelosi, we've, David, Kevin Munoz, Munoz Organizations: Republican, Sunday, Carolina's Democratic, South, South Carolina Democrat, Biden, ., Democratic, CBS, Voters, Trump, Convention, NBC News Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, U.S, South Carolina, East Hampton, N.Y
In the fall, I'm going on a trip with some of my girlfriends from college. Really, really good. I don't have 7 million euros to buy five properties across Europe. AdvertisementWould I move to more suburban New Jersey so I could buy a house? I would not make the calculus to move — whether that's another city, or another state, or a suburb — to buy a house.
Persons: , Amy Beihl, I've, they're, I'm, There's, Homeownership Organizations: Service, Business, Colgate University, Mallorca Locations: York, New York, Mallorca, Spain, Italy, France, Tuscany, England, Stockholm, Europe, Swedish, I'm, New York City, New Jersey, that's, America
“The people of Maui have shown strength in the face of adversity," said Green, a Democrat. Green aims for all 5,000 to move into long-term housing by March 1 in part by encouraging owners of vacation rentals to make their units available to wildfire evacuees. More broadly and longer-term, Green proposed a two-year “tax amnesty” to encourage owners of vacation rentals around the state to sell to owner-occupants or long-term rental landlords. Democratic House leaders identified common priorities with the governor, particularly on affordable housing, mental health care and climate change. “We need to solve problems in our state, and we need to find solutions that are going to be workable,” Saiki said.
Persons: Josh Green, Keahi Ho, Koa Bonnell —, Dee Morikawa, ” Morikawa, Green, , ” Green, Kyle Yamashita, ” Yamashita, Scott Saiki, Saiki Organizations: , Democrat, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Democratic, Finance Locations: HONOLULU, — Hawaii, Maui, Lahaina, Kauai, Niihau, Hawaii
Donald Trump is selling Christmas wrapping paper featuring his mug shot — for $35. A single purchase will give fans three sheets of wrapping paper filled with Trump's mug shot. Fans of Trump will need to spend $35 to clinch the "Never Surrender" wrapping paper, which is filled with black-and-white images of Trump's mug shot photoshopped with a Santa hat. According to Trump's team, the $35 wrapping paper is the only one "authorized by President Trump himself!" The former president is also selling a "limited edition" Christmas stocking featuring his mug shot with the words "Never Surrender!"
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Trump fends, Trump's, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Trump, Democrats, Politico, GOP Locations: August's Georgia, Fulton County , Georgia
Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are 10 projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. FebruaryIn August, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.
Persons: , Preston Caldwell, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, we'll, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Morningstar, UBS, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: North America's
While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.
Persons: J.P, David Kelly, , Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business
NEW YORK (AP) — ESPN Bet, a rebranded sports-gambling app owned by Penn Entertainment, is set to launch Tuesday. Under the agreement, Penn will operate ESPN Bet while ESPN promotes the app across its online and broadcast platforms. It's unclear when ESPN Bet will officially be available to download. In addition to the $1.5 billion licensing deal, Penn also said it would grant ESPN rights worth about $500 million to purchase shares in Penn. The upcoming launch of ESPN Bet could take Walt Disney Co.-owned ESPN into uncharted waters.
Persons: Penn, Dave Portnoy Organizations: ESPN Bet, Penn Entertainment, ESPN, Penn, Sports, Walt Disney Co Locations: — Arizona, Colorado , Illinois , Indiana , Iowa , Kansas , Kentucky, Louisiana , Maryland , Massachusetts, Michigan , New Jersey , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Penn
REUTERS/Matias Baglietto/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBUENOS AIRES, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Argentina's consumer prices likely rose by less than double digits in October, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, slowing down after hitting a three-decade high in September. The poll, which surveyed 19 analysts, showed consumer prices increasing by 9.9% in the month, slowing from the 12.4% rise in August and 12.7% climb in September, though they warned the slowdown would be temporary. "However, consumer prices are still going up quickly, especially considering the official exchange rate and government controls." The tightly controlled official exchange rate was devalued to 350 pesos per greenback in August, though it currently trades for nearly three times that on the informal parallel market. "The effect of August's peso devaluation was diluted, but it seems more inertia is building now than from before the previous exchange rate shock."
Persons: Matias Baglietto, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Lucio Garay Mendez, Massa, Garay Mendez, Jeronimo Montalvo, Hernan Nessi, Kylie Madry, Chizu Organizations: Mercado Central, REUTERS, Economy, U.S, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES, Empiria
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia made two recent decisions that on the surface seem to indicate a steady crude oil market outlook but may point to a ticking up in concern over the state of demand. It's also likely that softer demand for refined products in Asia amid economic uncertainty led to Aramco's decision to keep the Arab Light OSP unchanged. The extension of the additional 1 million bpd cut is perhaps a tacit admission that crude oil demand isn't as strong as OPEC has been expecting. Asia's crude imports showed some resilience in October, rising to 27.36 million bpd from 26.60 million bpd in September, according to data compiled by LSEG. China, the world's biggest importer, saw arrivals of 11.90 million bpd in October, up from September's 11.18 million bpd, but both these months were down on August's 12.49 million bpd.
Persons: It's, Brent, Robert Birsel Organizations: Saudi Aramco, refiners, Aramco, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, OPEC, LSEG, world's, Saudi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Oman, Dubai, Asia, Singapore, Israel, Gaza, Atlantic, refiners, China, Russia
OTTAWA, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Canada's trade surplus with the world increased twice as much as forecast in September, as higher crude prices helped exports gain for a third straight month, data showed on Tuesday. September's trade surplus gained to C$2.04 billion ($1.48 billion), Statistics Canada said, compared with a Reuters poll pointing toward a C$1.00 billion surplus. Energy products led the gains, mainly due to higher crude oil prices that coincided with the extension of voluntary production cuts by OPEC+. Partly offsetting the gains, exports of metal and non- metallic mineral products fell 10.7% in September from an all-time high in August. Overall, motor vehicles and parts recorded its sixth consecutive monthly rise, despite strike disruptions in the United States - Canada's biggest trade partner.
Persons: Stuart Bergman, Bergman, Shelly Kaushik, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Dale Smith, Ed Osmond, Chizu Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Export Development Canada, Energy, ., Canadian, greenback, Bank of Canada's, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, United States, Toronto, Ottawa
AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy added 150,000 jobs in October, based on nonfarm payroll employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS. That's less than September's revised job growth of 297,000. After two straight months of an unemployment rate at 3.8%, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. Some of the industries that saw job growth from September to October included healthcare, construction, and leisure and hospitality. "The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance," Powell said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , payrolls, Biden, Labor Julie Su, Aaron Terrazas, Nick Bunker, that's, Bunker, might've, Terrazas, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, That's, North America, Gross, Bureau, Board, Conference Board
"The story is on track, and I think you buy the stock," Jim Cramer said during Wednesday's Morning Meeting . Since its 2023 lows on July 13, Humana stock rallied more than 23% compared with a roughly 7% slide in the S & P 500 over the same stretch. Management's initial commentary on 2024 earnings and Medicare Advantage membership growth — discussed in more detail below — may also have left investors wanting. Humana also expects EPS growth in 2024 to fall on the lower end of its historical long-range 11%-to-15% target. Capital allocation Humana still expects to buy back about $1.5 billion worth of stock in 2023, finance chief Diamond said on the earnings call.
Persons: , Jim Cramer, they've, UnitedHealth, Humana, Susan Diamond, Diamond, Bruce Broussard, Jim Rechtin, Broussard, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Medicare, Revenue, Humana, UnitedHealth, CNBC, Inc
Some Wall Street banks have raised their forecasts for the amount of Treasurys to be auctioned. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are focused on the Treasury Department's upcoming quarterly refunding statement as Wall Street braces for another dose of sticker shock on US debt. After raising auction estimates in August, the department has already hinted that the Treasury supply will need to keep increasing. It's an outlook shared by Wall Street, and institutions are raising their expectations on the size of US debt issuance. AdvertisementAdvertisementJPMorgan also projected higher Treasury issuance ahead, noting that fiscal 2023's deficit surpassed its estimates by $100 billion.
Persons: , Josh Frost, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Treasury Department, Service, Treasury, Treasurys, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%, after edging up 0.1% in August. The so-called core PCE price index rose 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest gain since May 2021, after increasing 3.8% in August. Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index rose by a mild 0.2%. The super core PCE price index advanced 4.3% year-on-year in September. Policymakers are watching the super core PCE price index to try and gauge their progress in combating inflation.
Persons: Bing Guan, Sal Guatieri, James Knightley, Chris Low, Pooja Sriram, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department's, Economic, Reuters, Consumer, ING, FHN, Treasury, Fed, Barclays, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, New York
The larger-than-expected increase in sales last month reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed that the new housing market continued to be supported by a chronic shortage of previously owned houses. That is leading to very different dynamics in different parts of the housing market." New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders reported last week that about a third of builders reported cutting home prices in October, a 10-month high, with the average price discount at 6%. The housing market likely stabilized in the third quarter, thanks to strong homebuilding and new home sales.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Bill Adams, resales, Freddie Mac, Dan Hnatkovskyy, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Midwest ., National Association of Home Builders, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, Dallas, Northeast, West, Midwest
Investors will look to the upcoming earnings season to see whether stocks can recover from recent losses or if more declines are ahead. "All year, we've seen the steady weakening in European soft data and, more recently, hard data. In a note titled "Q3 Earnings - Make or break," Barclays analysts echoed that sentiment, suggesting that despite resilient earnings thus far, more mixed third-quarter economic indicators hint at equally varied results. UBS analysts have identified stocks that could surprise, both positively and negatively, when their earnings results are released in the coming weeks. Fowler said UBS analysts have historically been pretty accurate at predicting surprises, especially when combined with a value investing bias, which has tended to outperform.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, we've, Fowler, CNBC's, Fowler isn't, Emmanuel Cau, Stocks Organizations: UBS, Barclays, Santander, Ryanair, Siemens Energy, Nordic, Universal Music, AstraZeneca Locations: Europe
Refiners also called on stockpiles in July, though, when refinery processing exceeded the total volume of available crude by 510,000 bpd. The inventory draws in September and July came as China's refiners boosted throughput to meet rising domestic demand and higher fuel exports. As well, a strong rally in global oil prices has lowered the incentive to keep crude imports at elevated levels. China total available crude vs refinery throughputIMPORTS DROPPING? China's crude imports were 11.13 million bpd in September, down 10.5% from August's 12.4 million bpd, according to customs data.
Persons: Refiners, China's, China doesn't, It's, LSEG, Tom Hogue Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Benchmark Brent, United, United Arab Emirates, Diesel, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, It's, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, United Arab, Asia
European markets were lower Thursday as investors assess the impact of the crisis in the Middle East as well as earnings and economic data. Asia-Pacific markets saw a wide selloff, with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong markets seeing losses of about 2% each. Regional markets closed lower Wednesday as traders digested inflation figures from the U.K. and the euro zone. Euro zone inflation came in at an annual 4.3% in September, confirming earlier estimates and slowing markedly from August's 5.2% annual increase. U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September, slightly ahead of expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
Organizations: Treasury Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong
These showed that a rise in fuel prices between August and September put upward pressure on the annual CPI rate, which economists had expected to drop to 6.6%. "Progress in bringing inflation down is proving slow, with the UK generating higher levels of inflation than any other major industrialised nation," said Ian Stewart, chief economist at accountancy firm Deloitte. "The persistence of underlying inflation, and service price pressures, suggests that interest rates are likely to stay close to current levels for much of the next year," he added. Services price inflation - another CPI component the BoE studies - rose to 6.9% in September from 6.8%. British consumer price inflation remains the highest in the Group of Seven advanced nations, with France and Italy the nearest with rates of 5.7% and 5.6% respectively for September.
Persons: Ian Stewart, BoE, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Bernadette Baum, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Deloitte, Seven, Thomson Locations: British, August's, Ukraine, France, Italy
The exception among major commodities was copper, where imports of the unwrought metal were up in September from August, but down from the year earlier month. Copper imports were 480,426 metric tons in September, up from August's 473,330, but down 5.8% from 509,954 in September last year. For the first nine months of 2023, unwrought copper imports were down 9.5% to 3.99 million metric tons. Crude oil imports were 11.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from August's 12.4 million bpd, although it's worth noting that August was third strongest month on record. IRON ORE, COALIron ore imports dropped to 101.18 million metric tons in October, down 4.9% from August's 106.42 million, but it's worth noting that August was the strongest month since October 2020.
Persons: Aly, China's, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Port, Shanghai, China, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, August's
The so-called core CPI was also lifted by a 3.7% rise in the cost of lodging away from home, which ended three straight monthly declines. The core CPI gained 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest rise since September 2021, after advancing 4.3% in August. Over the last three months, the core CPI increased 3.1%. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market tightness, which is driving core services inflation excluding rents, imply that the higher rates could last for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.
Persons: Olu Sonola, Stephen Juneau, Bing Guan, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, Bank of America Securities, Mobil, REUTERS, Fed, Financial, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California
A stacker unloads iron ore onto a pile at a mine located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia December 2, 2013. China iron ore imports vs SGX priceIMPORTS SLIPThere are also signs that China's iron ore imports may soften in October, although that is most likely related to the week-long holidays at the start of the month. The last official reading on iron ore imports was August's customs figure of 106.42 million metric tons, which was the highest monthly total since October 2020. A further possible concern for iron ore imports is what policy China will adopt regarding steel production for the coming winter period. One possible bullish factor for iron ore is the continuing retreat of China's port inventories, which suggests scope to import more to boost stockpiles.
Persons: David Gray, doesn't, SteelHome, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China, HK, Garden, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Pilbara, Western Australia, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Beijing, Singapore, China's, China
Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Reuters GraphicsExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching August's gain. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market resilience, suggests borrowing costs could remain elevated for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.
Persons: Bing Guan, Olu Sonola, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
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