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☆ Fed's Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there's a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Monday that he doesn't foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, even if there's a recession. "If there's going to be some cost to that, we've got to be willing to do that." "If there's going to be a bias to action, for me would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut." On inflation, Bostic said he remains optimistic, while Goolsbee said, "Inflation is improving, but it's not improving that rapidly." "There's still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target," Bostic said.

☆ The Great Resignation is giving way to the 'Big Stay' as job-hopping slows down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It may be accurate to say the quitting situation is evolving into the "Big Stay," per ADP's chief economist. "The Big Quit of 2022 could be easing into the Big Stay of 2023," Richardson wrote in her recent commentary. "A year later, all three of these dynamics are abating, and the great resignation itself is looking like a thing of the past." Pollak said that "to the extent that there is a big stay, it is not taking place across the economy." Even if the Great Resignation might not be prevalent in all areas of the economy right now, it could emerge again.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US. consumer price data to test feared stagflation scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.

☆ Slower US job growth expected in April; unemployment rate seen rising to 3.6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to a still historically low 3.6%. "The labor market is slowly bending, but not breaking," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "There is continued resilience in the labor market right now, but the trend is one that is continuing to see a decelerating pace of momentum." The service-providing sector likely accounted for most of the anticipated job gains in April. WAGE GAINS MODERATEAverage hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% in April, matching March's gain.

☆ Here's what to expect from today's Federal Reserve announcement
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. None of those figures are satisfactory for Fed officials. "Most Fed officials don't seem comfortable that the rate hike cycle is over," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. The next Fed policy meeting comes in six weeks, on June 13-14, and April's consumer price report is due in one week, on May 10. This Fed meeting is crucial."

☆ US labor costs increase solidly in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs increased solidly in the first quarter as strong wage gains persisted amid a tight labor market, suggesting inflation could remain elevated for a while. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.2% last quarter after increasing 1.1% in the October-December period, the Labor Department said on Friday. Labor costs increased 4.8% on a year-on-year basis after advancing 5.1% in the fourth quarter. Wages and salaries increased 1.2% last quarter after rising by the same margin in the fourth quarter. Inflation-adjusted wages for all workers were unchanged on a year-on-year basis after declining 1.2% in the fourth quarter.

☆ Economic growth likely was solid to start the year, but that could end the good news for a while
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy likely grew at a solid pace to start the year, though things are expected to get worse before they get better. "It shows an economy that so far is resilient, weathering all kinds of storms so far and growing at pretty close to potential. Where the growth is So far, consumers have managed to withstand the higher rates. "We expect a solid 2.3% (QoQ SAAR) increase in Q1 real GDP, with details that appear even more positive for the economic backdrop. Despite rising debt levels and the prospects that financing will become more difficult to come by, consumers are in fairly solid shape.

☆ The banking crisis is having a slow-burn impact on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

That's a credit hit on Middle America, on Main Street," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Watching growth aheadIn the immediate future, the reading on first-quarter economic growth is expected to be largely positive despite the banking problems. In fact, the most recent recession was just two years ago in the early days of the Covid crisis. Consumer spending has seemed to hold up fairly well in the face of the banking crisis, with Citigroup estimating excess savings of about $1 trillion still available. [The banking situation] is a headwind, but it's not a gale-force headwind, it's just kind of a nuisance."

Persons: Spencer Platt, Steven Blitz, Stocks, Robert Sockin, it's, Dow Jones, isn't, It's, Moody's, Mark Zandi, headwind, Covid, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, TS Lombard, First, Bank, P Bank ETF, Citigroup, Commerce Department, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Moody's, Financial Advisors Locations: New York City, U.S, America, First Republic, Atlanta

☆ EUROPE All aboard the tech hype train as earnings rumble in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It's been a subdued start to a busy week studded with tech earnings and major data from both sides of the Atlantic. Analysts at Wedbush Securities are tipping upside surprises from the tech majors, with an accent on cost cutting and job shedding across the industry. Another risk bubbling away in the background is the U.S. debt ceiling with the House set to vote on the Republican plan to extend the debt limit in exchange for spending cuts. The cost of insuring exposure to U.S. sovereign debt rose to the highest level since 2011 last week. One-year CDS have climbed to around 100 bps, well above the 82 bps seen during the 2011 U.S. sovereign debt downgrade.

☆ Asia stocks off to slow start in earnings-rich week
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) nudged up 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.2% ahead of a busy week of earnings. The U.S. House of Representatives could this week vote on a Republican plan to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for spending cuts. Figures on U.S. wages and economic growth due this week will likely reinforce the case for further tightening. Oil prices also lost ground last week, though planned production cuts from OPEC offer some support.

☆ Markets and the economy survived a tough first quarter, but it's not going to get any easier
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Despite peaks and valleys, stocks closed the first quarter on an up note, with the S & P 500 rallying more than 7% and the tech-fueled Nasdaq soaring about 16%. .SPX .DJI YTD line S & P 500 gains so far in 2023 Indeed, the market has lived through a lifetime of scary headlines in the first three months of 2023. Despite repeated protestations from Fed officials that they are taking the higher-for-longer approach on interest rates, markets still expect cuts. AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple compared to the S & P 500 Only five of the 11 S & P 500 sectors are positive for the year, despite the substantial rally for the index. The net profit margin for the S & P 500 also is expected to edge lower to 11.2%.

☆ Jobless claims edge up to 198,000, higher than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Initial filings for unemployment insurance ticked higher last week but remained generally low in a tight labor market. Jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Though the number was slightly higher than expectations, the total indicates that companies are slow to lay off workers despite expectations that the unemployment rate will rise through the year. According to estimates last week, central bankers expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% this year, from its current 3.6% level. Markets reacted little to the fresh batch of data, with futures pointing to a higher open on Wall Street.

☆ Millennials are building up a mountain of debt in pursuit of the middle-class American dream — and they're starting to miss credit card payments at an alarming rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

This debt load is beginning to takes it toll — the NY Fed's report found that millennials are missing credit card and auto loan payments at rising rates. Millennials are starting to miss credit card paymentsAfter falling over the last few years as borrowers paid down their balances, US credit card debt rose $61 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest increase in the history of the NY Fed's data, which dates back to 1999. This increase brought total credit card balances to $986 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of $927 billion. Inflation has caused many millennial consumers to spend more, save less, and ultimately turn to credit card debt as pandemic-era savings have run out. While there are surely several factors fueling credit card debt among millennials, the high cost of childcare and related expenses surely aren't helping.

☆ Asia stocks feel rate pain, dollar on a roll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China has manufacturing surveys and the National People's Congress kicks off at the weekend and will see new economic policy targets and policies, as well as a reshuffling of government officials. S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq futures edged up 0.1%. Fed futures now have rates peaking around 5.42%, implying at least three more hikes from the current 4.50% to 4.75% band. Markets have also nudged up the likely rate tops for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Ten-year Treasury bonds also yield more than twice the estimated dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index, and with much less risk.

☆ Ron Insana says this economy is far from typical – and finding a policy fix will be tough
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Jim Vondruska | ReutersIn my 39 years of covering the economy, markets and business, I'm not certain that I've ever seen a "typical" business cycle as described in an economics 101 class. Finally, the Federal Reserve raises rates to bring the economy back into equilibrium, overshoots and creates yet another recession. While that sounds a lot like what's happening in the economy now, the current environment is being shaped by factors well beyond those of a "typical" business cycle. This is not a typical business cycle top, in which growth and inflation are both accelerating. That's well below the typical peak sales the industry has enjoyed at about 17 million vehicles sold.

☆ The week in inflation: Data signals higher prices, possibly more aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A week's worth of surprising economic data sent a pretty strong message to the market: Inflation that is higher than anticipated is likely to translate into higher interest rates as well. "We are listening to the signal from January inflation data, which suggest the disinflation process may be more prolonged than we previously believed," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. The data surprises began two weeks ago when nonfarm payrolls surged by a stunning 517,000 in January , raising concerns that a resilient labor market could drive wages, and inflation, higher. The consumer price index , a closely watched inflation metric, jumped 0.5% in January, a bit more than expected. Futures pricing points to a peak, or "terminal," rate of 5.23%, according to the August 2023 fed funds futures contract.

☆ Morning Bid: What landing?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Forget soft landing, equities seem to be betting on no landing for the U.S. economy: a sublime state where steady growth and low unemployment can co-exist with slowing inflation and higher interest rates. That at least would explain the resilience of stocks to blockbuster U.S. retail data and the rise of 10-year Treasury yields to seven-week highs. After an initial dip, Wall Street rallied into the close and futures have since nudged higher, lifting Asian markets in the process. That's a marked divergence from the Blue Chip consensus which has been tipping a sharp contraction for the quarter.

☆ Growth in U.S. labor costs smallest in a year in fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. labor costs increased at their slowest pace in a year in the fourth quarter as wage growth slowed, offering a boost to the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 1.0% last quarter, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. That was the smallest advance since the fourth quarter of 2021 and followed a 1.2% gain in the July-September period. Labor costs increased 5.1% on a year-on-year basis after advancing 5.0% in the third quarter. Wages and salaries increased 1.0% in the last quarter, also the smallest gain since the fourth quarter of 2021, after rising 1.3% in the third quarter.

☆ Earnings could keep the market on edge in week ahead as investors wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

I do think that will happen even more in the week ahead as the Fed is in a blackout period. S & P Global PMI data is released for both services and manufacturing Tuesday. "The market continues to think the Fed does not have to administer as much medicine as the Fed tells us they plan to. Earnings, earnings, earnings Stocks were lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 off by 1.8%. "It's a mild earnings recession, but it's an earnings recession.

☆ Gen Z wants equality, diversity, and flexibility at work, but it may cause them to sacrifice financial security
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Alexandra York | Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Some Gen Zers are focusing on a company's mission and job security during their job searches. As a recession looms, Gen Zers might want to consider their financial futures when applying for their next role. Additionally, over half of Gen Z could enter retirement without sufficient savings due to savings challenges and rising costs, Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff previously told Insider. In fact, the typical annual salary for Gen Z employees was $32,500 in 2021, according to research from the personal finance site GoBankingRates. To be sure, plenty of Gen Zers understand the financial pressures to come and are prioritizing salary in their job search.

☆ Morning Bid: COVID vs RRR
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu:Another central bank pivots. This has aided the risk-on mood in the market, with Asian shares mostly advancing and U.S. dollar broadly weaker. The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting showed a "substantial majority" of policymakers reckon it will "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of rate hikes. China's COVID infections hit a record high, with Beijing, which has the strictest rules, failing to contain the spreading virus. "In our view, ending zero COVID as soon as possible is the key to raising credit demand and bolstering growth."

☆ How to Keep Your Job in a Recession or Find a New One
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That doesn't mean you should stay put in a stable job if you're miserable, careers experts say. Workers have been worried about job cuts since the summer, with a July survey from Insight Global finding that 78% of US employees were anxious about job security in the event of recession. "There is definitely more competition for talented workers, so if people are interested in changing jobs, or getting a better job or looking for a promotion, it's a pretty good time to be doing it." Don't quit in a hurryOver half of American employees have said they'll look for a new job if there's a recession, June data from recruitment software company Greenhouse found. Be flexible about your demandsHaving a degree of flexibility during a recession can't hurt your job hunt.

☆ Morning Bid: Good is bad? Depends on who or what you are
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | Yousef Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Nov 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Good is bad again - or vice versa - as markets worry upbeat U.S. retail sales will lead to higher interest rates for longer. What's bad for Wall Street might be good for everyone else. What's good for bonds will be bad for everyone else. So what's good for markets has to be bad for everyone else.

Late on Tuesday Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said policy tightening so far has not dented inflation, and on Wednesday San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said pausing the hiking cycle is off the table and is not part of the discussion. Until recently, Daly was one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Her comments helped push Wall Street into the red on a day when bulls might have expected to have the upper hand. The more the economy refuses to slow, the more aggressive the Fed will have to be. Wall Street - and stocks and risk assets around the world - has a problem.

☆ Morning Bid: Shot across the bow
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The euro lost 1.5 cents as the news from Poland unfolded but has regained all of that since. European bourses have been less quick to rebound and remain in the red, with aerospace and defence stock outperforming. "Tighter money has not yet constrained business activity enough to seriously dent inflation," Bostic wrote on the Atlanta Fed's website. U.S. attention will turn to retail sales on Wednesday as October data is due for release alongside industry readings. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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