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☆ Thai central bank to deliver third straight 25bps hike on Nov. 30
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Negative real interest rates will continue to favour the Thai economic recovery as it diverges away from an ultra-tight monetary policy elsewhere in the world, most notably in the U.S. and Europe." Despite the wide interest rate gap, the baht has been one of the top performers in emerging market currencies, depreciating only about 7% so far this year. The government wants tourism next year to reach 80% of its pre-pandemic levels, even as global growth is likely to slow. "We expect Thai international tourism arrivals to be resilient to the global economic slowdown, with arrivals showing low sensitivity to global economic activity fluctuations historically," said Chua Han Teng, economist at DBS. Reporting and Polling by Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

COLOMBO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's central bank is expected to keep rates steady as inflation shows signs of easing and as authorities focus on discussions to secure a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout to stabilise its crisis-hit economy. If global economic stress starts to ease and if Sri Lanka secures an IMF deal before next March we can expect rate cuts in mid-2023," said Visaahan Arumainayagam, analyst for Colombo-based brokering firm Asha Securities. After hitting an annual peak of 68.9% in September with food inflation climbing to 93.7%, consumer inflation moderated slightly to 66% in October. read moreAn acute dollar shortage has left Sri Lanka struggling to pay for essential imports of food, fuel and medicine, with all eyes on the IMF bailout to try and stabilise the nation's perilous debt situation and finances. "Sri Lanka is in need of some deep economic reforms which are politically challenging, overcoming this will be difficult."

TOKYO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Japan's weighted median inflation rate, which is closely watched as an indicator on whether price rises are broadening, hit a record 1.1% in October in a sign of heightening inflationary pressure from rising raw material and labour costs. The 1.1% year-on-year rise in the weighted median inflation was the fastest pace on record and followed a 0.5% increase in September, BOJ data showed on Tuesday. Japan's weighted median inflation rate hovered around zero for the past two decades, as firms held off on price hikes for fear of scaring away cost-sensitive consumers. Unlike the consumer price index (CPI) which is swayed by fuel and energy costs, the weighted median inflation rate is useful to trace how broadly prices are rising. In a research note published in 2015, the BOJ said the weighted median inflation rate would rise more only if inflation expectations heighten, and people begin to assume that prices will continue to rise sustainably.

WELLINGTON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank is expected to deliver its biggest ever rate point hike this week as it continues efforts to temper inflation ahead of a three-month break. A Reuters poll found 15 of 23 economists expect the central bank to lift the cash rate by a record 75 basis points. HOME AND AWAYNew Zealand-based economists are more hawkish than their international counterparts, unanimously expecting the central bank to hike by 75 basis points. The central bank will also release new economic forecasts and potentially an updated cash rate track. "It all comes down to the language around the OCR (official cash rate) track and its shape," said Kiwibank in a note.

South Korea's economic growth was fast losing momentum at latest measure as higher living costs erode household income and crimp demand, pressuring the Bank of Korea (BoK) to strike a balance between inflation and growth. All but one of 30 economists in the Nov. 15-21 poll forecast the BoK would raise its policy rate (KROCRT=ECI) by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Thursday. If the majority view prevails, the BoK will take rates to the highest level since 2012. "Amid climbing concerns about growth and the credit market, the case for hiking at a more gradual pace has strengthened further." Nearly 60% of respondents, 17 of 30, forecast another hike by 25 basis points by end-March, taking rates to 3.50%.

☆ Philippine central bank to raise rates by 75 bps- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The BSP has already raised its key rate by a total of 225 basis points since May. Three-quarters of respondents, 12 of 16, forecast a 50 basis point rise in December to 5.50%. Six of 16 expected a 50 basis point hike, five expected a 25 basis point move while five others did not expect any move after December. The median forecast shows a higher terminal rate of 5.75% by end-Q1, compared with expectations of 5.00% by end-December in a September poll. Four big banks, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, DBS and UOB, estimated a terminal rate as high as 6.00% while HSBC predicted 6.25%.

Nov 9 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams cited the relative stability of longer-run inflation expectations as good news on Wednesday as the U.S. central bank continues to work to get price pressures back to the desired level. So far, hikes in the Fed's target rate range, now standing at between 3.75% and 4%, have not lowered price pressures much back to the 2% official target. Fed officials say they believe that public expectations of price pressures in the future exert a strong influence on where inflation is today. He noted that short-term inflation expectations, which have risen, have been the most reactive to incoming inflation data. Williams also noted that uncertainty over the inflation outlook has risen and there have been some curious developments as well.

Chinese banks are estimated to have issued 800 billion yuan($110.4 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, falling sharply from 2.47 trillion yuan in September, according to the median estimate in the survey of 27 economists. That would be lower than the 826.2 billion yuan issued in the same month a year earlier. In October, the People's Bank of China made 154.3 billion yuan in loans to three policy banks via its PSL facility, central bank data showed. Outstanding yuan loans were expected to grow by 11.2% in October from a year earlier, unchanged from September, the poll showed. China's local governments issued a net 24.1 billion yuan in special bonds in September, the finance ministry has said, down from 51.6 billion yuan in August.

☆ China's factory gate prices suffer first drop since Dec 2020 as COVID curbs take toll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer inflation also moderated from a 29-month high in September, and underlying price pressures remained much more modest with core inflation rising 0.6% in October, unchanged from September. "However, the worsening of global growth is denting external demand." Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsPOLICY CHALLENGEThe consumer price index climbed 2.1% from a year earlier, easing from a 29-month high of a 2.8% increase in September, mainly driven by falling food prices. Food prices rose 7.0% in annual terms, slowing from 8.8% rise in the previous month, with fresh vegetable prices off 8.1% from a 12.1% rise in September. However, Pork prices - a key driver of the CPI - rose 51.8% year-on-year in October, faster than 36% growth in September.

☆ China's factory gate prices drop for first time since Dec 2020 as COVID curbs take toll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ China's factory gate prices fall for first time since Dec 2020 as COVID curbs bite
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The deflationary impulse in the producer price gauge partly reflected the sharply higher year-ago levels and falling commodity prices, according to an accompanying NBS statement. The consumer price index (CPI) climbed 2.1% from a year earlier, easing from a 29-month high of a 2.8% increase in September, mainly driven by falling food prices. read moreAlmost three years into the pandemic, China has pledged to press on with its strict COVID-19 containment strategy. China's yuan currency has already been pummelled this year by the global tightening trend and a buoyant U.S. dollar. read moreReporting by Liangping Gao and Liz Lee Editing by Shri NavaratnamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar wobbles while investors await midterms; cryptos skittish
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Tom Westbrook | Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It touched multi-week lows against the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar overnight, then edged off those levels early in the Asia session. "We all know the dollar will probably turn at some point - when is the big question," said Bank of Singapore currency analyst Moh Siong Sim. Investors expect Republican gains, and some analysts view likely Congressional gridlock as a slight negative for the dollar if it limits fiscal spending. On Thursday, U.S. inflation data is on the horizon. The New Zealand dollar wobbled 0.1% lower to $0.5951.

☆ Malaysia's economy likely grew 11.7% in Q3, outlook cloudy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Nov. 1-8 poll of 22 economists predicted the economy expanded 11.7% in the July-September quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. In the previous quarter, the economic grew 8.9%. Trade and economic activity was also likely to be affected by China's strict COVID-19 containment measures and a slowdown in global growth. A separate Reuters poll showed Malaysia's growth would average 7.2% this year and then fall to 4.2% in 2023. "The currency is likely to remain under downward pressure until U.S. bond yields peak and market participants remain risk averse amid elevated levels of global economic uncertainty," added Tandon.

☆ Japan manufacturers' mood down amid weak yen, global risks - Reuters Tankan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The monthly poll, which tracks the closely watched tankan quarterly survey of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), found that manufacturers expected their business conditions to improve over the coming three months while service-sector respondents expected little change. Economists estimate the world's number-three economy slowed sharply in the third quarter as yen falls pushed living costs higher and as risk of global slowdown rose. The index is expected to rebound to plus 7 in February after declining for a third month in a row in November. The service-sector index rose five points to plus 20, the best reading since the plus 25 registered in October 2019 shortly before the outbreak of the pandemic, it showed. The index is expected to slip just one point to plus 19 over the coming three months.

☆ Taiwan exports likely contracted again in October- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TWCPIY%3DECIExports median forecast -6% y/y (prior month -5.3%)Imports median forecast -3.5% y/y (prior month -2.4%)Balance median forecast $4.905 bln (prior month $5.02 bln)CPI median forecast +2.7% y/y (prior month +2.75%)TAIPEI, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Taiwan's exports likely contracted in October for the second month in a row, amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 flare-ups in China, according to a Reuters poll. Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc (AAPL.O), is one of Asia's leading exporters of technology goods. Exports last month were estimated to have dropped 6% from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 22 analysts showed on Monday, slightly faster than the 5.3% contraction in September. Taiwan's finance ministry had predicted October exports could contract in a range of 3% to 6% from a year earlier. Poll compiled by Anant Chandak and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China's October exports likely cooled further as global demand weakened, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Exports likely rose 4.3% last month from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 20 economists in the poll, slowing from a 5.7% pace in September. "The tepid outlook for global supply chains does not bode well for China's exports," said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. "In addition to slowing global demand amid a likely global recession, we note export orders normally sent to China are being diverted to other emerging market economies." Combined with a high base of comparison from last year, Barclays forecast China's exports could fall 2-5% in 2023. The weak trade forecasts implied that China's trade surplus would widen to $95.95 billion from 84.74 billion in September.

☆ China's Oct exports seen cooling further as global demand weakens: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The tepid outlook for global supply chains does not bode well for China's exports," said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. "In addition to slowing global demand amid a likely global recession, we note export orders normally sent to China are being diverted to other emerging market economies." Combined with a high base of comparison from last year, Barclays forecast China's exports could fall 2-5% in 2023. read moreImports were forecast to have risen just 0.1% from a year earlier, the poll showed, compared with a 0.3% gain in September. The weak trade forecasts implied that China's trade surplus would widen to $95.95 billion from 84.74 billion in September.

☆ POLL Rising U.S. rates pose biggest risk for Japan but recession unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationTOKYO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The biggest risk to Japan's economy over the next year is a prolonged period of U.S. monetary tightening, although the world's third-largest economy is unlikely to sink into a recession, the majority of economists polled by Reuters said. Policymakers worldwide, including the International Monetary Fund, have cut global growth projections for 2023, citing elevated prices and higher cost of borrowing. While most economists agreed that such risks would not plunge Japan into a recession, they said that was mainly owing to a low base. "Japan's economy appears robust compared with overseas peers, but that's just because its recovery from the pandemic has been lagging behind," said Fukoku's Takamatsu. Elsewhere in the poll, a median estimate of 34 respondents had the Japanese economy expanding an annualised 2.0% in October-December, slightly better than the 1.9% forecast in the September poll.

☆ Weak oil demand to lower GCC economic growth in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Economic growth in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council will remain strong but slow significantly next year as high oil prices hurt demand for the commodity, a Reuters poll showed. China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has been fighting COVID-19 flare-ups and stuck to a zero-COVID-19 policy that is weighing heavily on economic activity and global oil demand. "GCC countries have benefitted from sharply higher oil prices, turning budget deficits into surpluses, and increased oil production which has bumped up GDP growth. Among other GCC economies, growth was expected to drop next year in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, while in Bahrain growth was forecast to slow to 3.0% compared with 3.4% this year. As other economies reduce their reliance on oil Gulf countries are diversifying their revenue streams.

☆ Egypt's currency seen falling faster than previous projections
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Nafisa Eltahir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

CAIRO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Egypt's currency will weaken at a steeper pace than expected, although inflation is likely to decrease over the next few years, a Reuters poll showed. In July, respondents had predicted a more conservative devaluation, reaching 19.86 by the end of the 2023/24 fiscal year. The higher outlook is based on pressure on Egypt's currency and the uncertainty in global energy and food prices driven largely by the war, said Mona Bedeir, chief economist at Al Baraka Bank. High inflation and a weakening currency weighed on economists' projections for Egypt's growth, which fell below the 6.6% surge during the fiscal year that ended in June. They predicted growth of 5.4% in the current fiscal year, and 5.0% in the 2023-2024 year.

☆ Bank Indonesia playing catch-up, to deliver another 50 bps rate hike on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Relatively lower inflation allowed the central bank to hold off with raising rates until August. But in September inflation reached 5.95%, the highest since 2015, and will likely push the central bank to continue tightening. BI, until recently one of the world's last dovish central banks, followed a modest quarter-point rate rise in this cycle with a surprisingly aggressive 50 basis point rise in September. The weaker rupiah , down more than 8% so far this year, has prompted economists to bring forward their rate hike expectations. Reuters Poll: Indonesia inflation and monetary policy outlookThe poll showed inflation was expected to average 4.6% this year and inch down to 4.5% in 2023, a massive upgrade from 3.9% and 3.5% predicted in July.

☆ China Q3 growth seen bouncing 3.4%, but 2022 set for worst performance in decades
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Growth is expected to pick up to 3.8% in the fourth quarter, bringing the 2022 pace to 3.2%, far below the official target of around 5.5%. Investors will look for policy signals from a historic congress of the ruling Communist Party due to start on Sunday. The expected 2022 growth would be lower than 4.0% analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll in July and 5.0% in April's forecast. The government is due to release third-quarter GDP data, along with Sept. activity data, on October 18 at 0200 GMT. Economic growth is forecast to quicken to 5.0% in 2023.

☆ Indonesia Sept trade surplus seen at $4.8 bln as exports slow
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary Trade data due at 0400 GMT on Monday, Oct. 17JAKARTA, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus likely remained elevated in September, albeit below the level recorded in the previous month, amid a slowdown in export growth, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The September trade surplus is seen at $4.84 billion, narrower than the previous month's $5.76 billion, according to the median forecast of 12 economists. Indonesia is a major exporter of coal, palm oil, nickel, tin and other commodities. Analysts have warned moderating commodity prices, at a time when imports are rising due to an improving domestic economy, may reduce its trade surplus in the remainder of 2022. "We saw a correction in CPO (crude palm oil) prices, even though coal prices were stable" last month, said Irman Faiz, an economist with Bank Danamon, who predicted a $4.4 billion September surplus.

☆ China's Sept exports likely cooled further on weakening global demand: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - China's export growth is expected to have slowed further in September as overseas demand weakens, adding to strains on the shaky economy amid COVID curbs and a property crisis, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. Outbound shipments likely rose 4.1% from a year earlier after growing 7.1% in August, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in the poll. Surging inflation, higher interest rates and the months-long Ukraine war are increasingly weighing on the global economy, with China's protracted slowdown adding to the pressure. South Korea's export growth, a leading indicator for China's imports, hit the slowest pace in nearly two years in September. With the weakening yuan, China's trade surplus is likely to have widened to $81.0 billion from $79.39 billion in August, the poll showed.

☆ Singapore GDP growth to ease in Q3, keeps MAS in delicate balancing act
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Chen Lin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Singapore government had downgrade its 2022 GDP growth forecast range to 3% to 4% from 3% to 5% in August, citing the weakening external demand outlook. Economists are watching to see whether Singapore's official inflation forecast would be revised when the central bank releases its monetary policy statement, which is also due on Friday. Sixteen economists forecast the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tighten its policy, but are divided on how aggressive it will be and which of its settings will change. Economists, including Maybank's Chua, who expect MAS to tighten only via one lever largely cited the weak growth outlook. The MAS has tightened monetary policy four times in a row, with the latest in July in an out-of-cycle move.

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