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☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ As China and the U.S. redefine geopolitics, Europe faces a win-win situation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A member of the Peoples Armed Police stands guard in front of the flag of the European Union at the European Delegation in Beijing, China. As the United States looks at disengaging from China, Europe could soon find itself in a sweet spot. "The U.S.' hawkish policy stance towards China means that China needs to improve relations with Europe to mitigate the impact of export controls. Therefore, China has an incentive to work hard on improving EU relations," Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Institute, told CNBC via email. "Viewed from China, the EU is the most important high-income market that it still has largely unfettered access to.

MUMBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - Investors are looking beyond the U.S. technology sector's bounceback this year for longer-term returns, as higher interest rates and an uncertain macroeconomic picture could present further headwinds, fund managers and strategists said. "The tendency is that ... the sector that leads in one cycle doesn't tend to lead in the following cycle," Yoder told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "We are staying away from the more interest rate-sensitive sectors such as tech," said Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at abrdn. Anticipating an economic slowdown in the second half, more cautious and selective positioning across fixed income portfolios is a better bet, said Jonathan Duensing, head of U.S. fixed income at Amundi. "We've always felt that the tech sector in general is one where you need to be very selective," Duensing said.

☆ The Fed likely won't cut rates this year. Why that's good news for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Although a pause in interest rate hikes appears likely, cuts may be farther off than some believe. Still, investors have remained hyper-alert for signs that the central bank could let up its brisk clip of interest rate increases. The central bank also opened the door to a pause, accelerating bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting in June and cut rates as soon as July. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in JulyExperts say that the Fed won’t cut rates anytime soon for two key reasons: Inflation remains sticky, and the economy has stayed strong. that’s not to say that a Fed rate cut this year is completely out of the cards, says Nicole Webb, senior vice president at Wealth Enhancement Group.

REUTERS/Sarah MeyssonnierTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Two major European asset managers have jointly filed a shareholder resolution at Japanese electricity generator Electric Power Development Co Ltd (9513.T), known as J-Power, for the second consecutive year in a row. The asset managers are calling on J-Power, Japan's largest operator of coal-fired power stations, to set and disclose credible short and medium-term emissions reduction targets, aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The resolution is supported by Man Group (EMG.L), the world's largest publicly traded hedge fund, ACCR said. Amundi, Man Group, and HSBC Asset Management have nearly $3 trillion in assets combined under management. J-Power will "carefully consider" proposals and disclose its board of directors' opinions "as soon as they are determined", the company said on Tuesday.

[1/2] A logo of Amundi is seen outside the company headquarters in Paris, France, February 3, 2023. Amundi (AMUN.PA) and HSBC Asset Management filed the resolution with the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR), the non-profit climate group said in a statement on Tuesday. The resolution is supported by Man Group (EMG.L), the world's largest publicly traded hedge fund, ACCR said. Amundi, Man Group, and HSBC Asset Management have nearly $3 trillion in assets combined under management. Last year, Man, Amundi and HSBC filed a similar shareholder resolution, which they say was the first climate-related proposals by an institutional investor group to a Japanese firm.

☆ It's safer to be underweight on equity exposure, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's safer to be underweight on equity exposure, strategist saysMonica Defend, head of Amundi Asset Management, discusses being underweight on equity exposure and why she prefers government bonds.

☆ Exclusive: EU to push for its debt to be included in government bond indexes- official
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.

Low and stable inflation is good for markets and the economy, so central banks had to show their seriousness on inflation, Tannenbaum added. Central banks softened rate rises with communication that was mindful of instability risks, showing reassuring "humility", said Perkins. "The bank resolution framework created after the great financial crisis," said Francesco Papadia, senior fellow at Bruegel and former ECB director general for market operations, "is proving difficult to implement." Reuters Graphics4/ UNITED WE STANDAfter CS's rescue, the Fed and other big central banks supported market liquidity with dollar swap lines. Amundi's Pradhan said the "case by case" central bank responses to individual lenders failing in March exposed the lack of a coordinated bank resolution system.

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - A committee of Sri Lanka's international private creditors sent its first debt rework proposal to the country's authorities regarding more than $12 billion in bonds outstanding, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the matter. It is the first bondholder proposal after the island nation of 22 million people defaulted on its debt a year ago. A spokesperson representing the creditor committee declined to comment. Bondholders and government officials met in Washington this week, with legal and financial advisers for both sides present, two sources said. China, Sri Lanka's biggest bilateral creditor, did not join the announcement even though it holds the key to solving debt woes for some low- and middle-income countries.

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - A committee of Sri Lanka's international private creditors sent its first debt rework proposal to the country's authorities regarding over $12 billion in bonds outstanding, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the matter. It is the first bondholder proposal after the island-nation of 22 million people defaulted on its debt a year ago. A spokesperson representing the creditor committee declined to comment. China, Sri Lanka’s biggest bilateral creditor, did not join the announcement. Sri Lanka secured last month a $2.9 billion program from the International Monetary Fund to tackle its huge debt burden.

The sources said one possibility that has been considered would see Amundi (AMUN.PA) spinning off its Italian operations into a separate company, in which UniCredit (CRDI.MI) could buy a stake. Azimut had 83 billion euros of assets under management (AUMs) at the end of February. Amundi, which is 69% owned by Credit Agricole, ranks third in Italy with 214 billion euros of AUMs as of end-February. UniCredit had 194 billion euros of AUMs at group level in December. "Extracting further value from partnerships on asset management, protection and payments remains another focus," they added.

March saw six interest rate hikes across eight meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies. This follows six interest rate hikes delivering 250 bps of uplift across six meetings by G10 central banks in February. "By clearly separating financial and price stability goals and tools, major central banks carried on with rate hikes through the tumult." However, the world's top central banks are openly contemplating an early end to their rate hikes, not least because of the recent financial turmoil. This compares with February, when 13 emerging central banks met and only four hiked by a total of 175 bps.

But after a two-week storm which had analysts and investors rushing to rework their spreadsheets, the outlook is clouded. And the ructions have left the gap between the ratios of European and U.S. banks at its narrowest since September 2017. Reflecting concerns over the stability of the sector, bank shares are set for an almost 15% monthly drop in March, after five consecutive months of gains. European bank earnings growth expectations'UNLIKELY TO BUY'Other investors see pressure on European bank earnings as they anticipate the euro zone economy will slow down. Also in the calculation mix is the ECB's campaign to raise interest rates to tackle rising inflation, which had previously been a boon for euro zone lenders.

☆ China-driven growth seen helping emerging assets despite bank worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Duncan Miriri | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Stronger Chinese-led emerging markets growth will likely buffer the stocks, bonds and currencies of many developing nations as markets in the United States and Europe are whipped around by banking turmoil. "The growth premium in favour of emerging markets driven by China is clearly even more confirmed," Alessia Berardi, head of emerging markets (EM) research at Amundi, Europe's biggest asset manager, told Reuters. Analysts expect high interest rates, inflation and stress among some financial institutions to dampen growth in developed markets like the United States. "We prefer income in emerging markets debt with central banks closer to turning to cuts than developed markets, even with potential currency risks," it said in a research note. Local EM bonds have seen a return of 3.3% in the month-to-date (.JGEGDCM), compared to a 3.1% gain in U.S. 10-year Treasuries.

☆ Morning Bid: Calm returns: Investors switch to bank fundamentals
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaTurbulence in global markets is gradually giving way to stability. A day after regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares moved to scoop up the assets of failed Silicon Valley Bank, brave investors can probably begin to ask, "Is the worst over?" A strong show of confidence is coming from U.S. authorities as bank regulators say the system is sound but rules need review. A recover in U.S. markets, especially in beaten-down bank shares, lifted Asian stocks on Monday while the safe-haven dollar declined. While the analysts expect a continuation of declining credit growth which is consistent with monetary tightening, they don't expect any credit crunch.

☆ For battered U.S. bank shares, earnings may make or break
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Even so, the S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) is down 16% since March 8, two days before Silicon Valley's collapse, with the failure of Signature Bank and problems at other banks adding to the turmoil. Some say quarterly results could be key to what happens next with bank shares. Among other financials, Jefferies Financial Group (JEF.N) is expected to report quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period. They are forecasting S&P 500 financials (.SPSY) to post year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter of 5.4%, making it among just four sectors whose earnings are expected to climb.

☆ Yellen's comments on bank support are worrying for potential spillover into economy, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYellen's comments on bank support are worrying for potential spillover into economy, strategist saysMonica Defend, chief strategist at Amundi Institute, discusses market nerves and the situation in European and U.S. banks.

☆ Don't expect EU to win big concessions on IRA, Amundi Institute says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't expect the EU to win big concessions on the IRA, Amundi Institute saysAnna Rosenberg of the Amundi Institute says "ultimately, the EU cannot match the [U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.]"

☆ Markets start signalling Fed may be going too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.

☆ Recession worries used to be bad for bank stocks. Not anymore
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Investors are bucking tradition this year by piling into big bank stocks just as major economies are expected to either slow down or fall into recession. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that interest rates would rise more than people anticipated. European bank stocks have risen particularly sharply in the past six months. “As those worries have unwound, European banks have done particularly well.”No ‘hidden skeletons’But European economies are still fragile. When economic activity slows down, bank stocks are typically among those hit hardest.

☆ A man's world: gender parity will take more than five generations
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The analyses of the data in the WEF's Global Gender Gap report takes into consideration gender disparity in economic opportunities, education, political empowerment, health and safety. The BofA data shows that U.S. companies with greater gender diversity have offered a median 20% higher return on equity since 2005 than those who lack it. According to consultancy firm EY, almost half of European financial services investors state that gender diversity in the boardroom significantly influences their decision to invest in a company. For senior executive roles, gender parity still looks out of reach. U.S. companies focused on gender diversity on boards and senior executive level have achieved 43% lower earnings risk in subsequent three years than those who lack such diversity, BofA said, citing its own analysis.

☆ Biden to host EU chief as Europe hopes to avoid subsidy race with the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (L) speaks with US President Joe Biden. President Joe Biden will welcome Ursula von der Leyen to the White House this week, with the European Union's top official eager to gain concessions amid a tense subsidy spat between the two giant trading blocs. "We want to achieve as much non-discriminatory treatment for EU products and companies as possible, avoiding distortions of the level playing field," a spokesperson for the European Commission, told CNBC via email Friday. This could ultimately mean less innovation in Europe and fewer jobs for Europeans too. "I do not think [European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen will manage to extract meaningful concessions from the U.S. on the IRA.

☆ We've been positive on China for quite some time, says asset management firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe've been positive on China for quite some time, says asset management firmVincent Mortier of Amundi says it likes China A-shares, but "not the very large names."

A year from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fracturing geopolitics seems to be rolling back world trade links and financial interdependence at speed. But global financial conditions - and the strength of the U.S. dollar as a proxy for that - may be playing a bigger part than the more dramatic political narrative lets on. "A stronger dollar tends to go hand in hand with tighter global financial conditions and more subdued supply chain activity." Compensating somewhat for dollar exchange rate strength over the decade were historically low real dollar borrowing rates. There's little doubt that the pandemic and the geopolitics surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan have been major potential disruptions to world trade by themselves.

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