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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMonetary policy tightening works through banking channels, not just financial markets, says Citi's WietingBruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan; Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth Investments; and Margaret Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss global market action, consequences of the Fed's aggressive rate approach and anticipated changes to lending policies.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. interest rates: It's a toss-up between a pause and one hike, says strategistGeorge Bory of Allspring Global Investments says it could be a period of stability from the U.S. Federal Reserve's perspective.
Wall Street's main indexes recorded steep losses in the previous session after startups-focused lender SVB Financial Group's (SIVB.O) share sale to shore up its balance sheet wiped out more than $80 billion in value from bank shares. The bank is in talks to sell itself, the report added. All three major U.S. indexes were headed towards weekly losses as Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week left open the possibility of a large rate hike at the Fed's March meeting, after the central bank dialed down the size of its rate hike last month. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.33-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 3.88-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.3% along with a 6 basis points rise in the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield . yields vs stocksHigher bond yields dull the relative appeal of stocks while raising companies’ borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields can also weaken the valuations of equities in standard valuation models, particularly for tech and other companies that rely on future profits that are discounted at higher rates when yields rise. Meanwhile, some investors are not yet worried about the threat to stocks from yields. Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.
Worries of higher rates for longer amplified the downbeat mood set by disappointing results from megacap growth companies. The three main Wall Street indexes were still set for gains this week. Ten of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors fell with only energy stocks (.SPNY) in positive territory as oil prices rose. Nearly 70% of half the S&P 500 firms that reported fourth-quarter earnings have topped Wall Street expectations. Analysts now see earnings of S&P 500 firms declining 2.7% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAny recession would be pretty mild since the economy is in good shape, says Margaret PatelMargaret Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed policy adjustments, growth in semiconductors and industrials, and more.
NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation Fund is closing in on the best monthly performance in its history as it rides a rebound in many of the high-growth stocks that took a beating last year. The $7.3 billion ARK Innovation (ARKK.P) fund is up slightly more than 25% for the month to date, putting it ahead of the 25% gain it notched in April 2020. Investors are awaiting the Feb. 1 conclusion of the Fed's monetary policy meeting for clues on whether easing inflation is swaying policymakers to a less hawkish view. The central bank is widely expected to increase its key policy rate by another 25 basis points next week. Overall, January's rally has helped ARK Innovation's assets under management grow by approximately $1.2 billion this month, while investors have pulled a net $59 million out of the fund, according to Lipper data.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate on Thursday. The swing in inventories was the wildcard and that added 1.46 percentage points to GDP growth. "If you look at the GDP data it does seem like we left 2022 with a little bit more momentum than people had thought and with consumption we're also in a pretty good spot. “We have a GDP number that is well above trend, and the previous quarter’s number was well above trend. That suggests higher rates were starting to take a bigger toll, and sets the stage for weaker growth in the first quarter of this year."
The impact of the reopening of the world's second largest economy on financial markets, hit by double-digit losses last year as inflation and interest rates jumped, is critical. Being touted among the top buying bets on recovery hopes are emerging markets, commodity currencies, oil, travel and European luxury companies. The boost to world growth from China's reopening was expected to hurt the safe-haven dollar but benefit the euro. INFLATION CAUTIONBut a boost from China's reopening raises some concerns about inflation. China is the world's leading importer of oil and many other commodities -- oil prices have risen 10% since mid-December to almost $84 .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Allspring Global Investments' Bryant VanCronkhiteBryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss dividend paying stocks in industrials and materials, navigating Fed policy and understanding secular demand versus cyclical.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed telling investors it won't save market or struggling companies, says Allspring's Bryant VanCronkhiteBryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss dividend paying stocks in industrials and materials, navigating Fed policy, and understanding secular demand versus cyclical.
State and local government bonds are on track to post their worst yearly performance since 1981, a deep slump for an investment prized for safety and stability. “This year was a bloodbath,” said Nicholos Venditti, a municipal bond fund portfolio manager with Allspring Global Investments. “It was a bloodbath in munis the same way it was across all asset classes.”
The ARK Innovation Fund has lost around 67% year to date, more than tripling the decline of the S&P 500 index (.SPX). With the S&P 500 on pace for its biggest annual decline since the Great Financial Crisis, few funds are likely to escape 2022 unscathed. Wood's fund ranked 3,544 among all 3552 actively-managed U.S. equity mutual funds tracked by Morningstar. The worst performing fund of the year, by comparison, was the Voya Russia fund, which is down 92% for the year to date. CRASH LANDINGOther funds that soared in recent years on the backs of large bets on technology stocks fell on hard times in 2022.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed pausing rate hikes would trigger an equity rally, says Allspring's JacobsenBrian Jacobsen, Allspring Global Investments, and Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the difference between goods and services, if a rate hike pause would spell good news for equities and more.
Don't shoot the messenger here, but today I'm breaking down the many troubles plaguing the housing market and homebuyers. The Fed's interest rate maneuvering and the housing market are connected, and mortgage rates often move in lockstep with the central bank's benchmark rate. Brian Jacobsen, a senior strategist for Allspring Global Investments, pointed to a triumvirate of headwinds weighing on the housing sector: labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgages. That means more rate hikes are effectively guaranteed, which raises the odds of a recession and can further squash housing demand. What's your forecast for the housing market next year?
The US housing market has been hit by labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgage rates. Brian Jacobsen, an Allspring strategist, described those three trends as a "triple whammy." On the other hand, the Allspring strategist suggested US stocks could reverse some of their recent declines before the new year. Its policymakers have responded by raising interest rates from almost zero in March to over 4% today. Higher interest rates encourage people to save rather than spend, and they raise the cost of borrowing, relieving upward pressure on prices.
CNBC Stock World Cup: TSMC vs. Berkshire Hathaway — who wins?
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Stock World Cup: TSMC vs. Berkshire Hathaway — who wins? In CNBC's Stock World Cup challenge, Margaret Patel of Allspring Global Investments gives her take on whether TSMC or Berkshire Hathaway is a better bet in giving investors a greater total return in the next year.
STORY: STATEMENT TEXT:MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The S&P 500 turned sharply lower then steadied down 0.11%BONDS: Benchmark 10-year note yields rose then backed off to 3.4847%. CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They’re reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. You know, the biggest thing that is holding the Fed back right now are the jobs numbers. The most dovish participants is looking for an extra 50 bps of hikes.
CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They're reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. "But the Fed is out there saying that 5.1% is still on the cards … and that rate hikes will continue." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“The most interesting part of the releases were in the Summary of Economic Projections. And they’re holding it there longer than markets expected.”“In addition, they’re downgrading GDP estimates for this year, and in particular, for next year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo top market watchers say volatility is likely to continue, and there's not much clarity on when stocks are set to rallySylvia Jablonski of Defiance ETFs and Ann Miletti of Allspring Global Investments discuss the market's recent negative stretch, and for that trend to break, investors need to see earnings growth hold up.
S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The Labor Department's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000, above expectations of 200,000 and wage growth accelerated even as recession concerns increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 34.87 points, or 0.1%, to 34,429.88, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.7 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50. The major averages notched a second straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq rising 2.1%. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) declined 0.29% while technology shares (.SPLRCT) were among the worst performing among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors with a fall of 0.55%. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 92 new lows.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMitigating unexpected loss with Margaret Patel, sr. portfolio manager at Allspring Global InvestmentsMargie Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss market caution ahead of Powell's comments, the effect of monetary policy on labor markets, and finding safe havens for the current economic conditions.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Margie Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global InvestmentsMargie Patel, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss market caution ahead of Powell's comments, the effect of monetary policy on labor markets, and finding safe havens for the current economic conditions.
September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
"The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited." Still, the implication that policymakers were stepping down from their break-neck pace of rate hikes lifted U.S. stock prices and sent Treasury yields lower. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped to 4.49%. Contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate showed investors maintaining bets for a half-percentage-point increase at the Dec. 13-14 policy meeting. "The path forward for monetary policy is a battle between the 'various' and the 'several,'" said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist with Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
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