U.S. corn yield is now nearly 10 bushels per acre lower than the earliest projections, though the trade has anticipated that decline very well. Analysts have nearly nailed the last two corn yield estimates, their best-known performance for these months. When considering all of the past 20 years, U.S. soybean yield in January was lower than in October eight times. This is the third month in a row where USDA’s corn yield is lower than in the previous month. In the last 20 years, U.S. corn yield was lower in both September and October four other times, most recently in 2020.

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