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☆ Risk assets will sell down if the Fed doesn't cut by 50 bps, Julius Baer researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRisk assets will sell down if the Fed doesn't cut by 50 bps, Julius Baer researcher saysMark Matthews, head of research Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the outlook for U.S. markets and this week's upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Persons: Julius Baer, Mark Matthews Organizations: Reserve Locations: Asia

☆ Bitcoin is surging on hopes rate cuts will drive a speculative rush
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rise comes amid anticipation that the Fed will deliver a half-point rate cut. Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve's long-awaited rate cut tomorrow, which will be announced at the end of the central bank's two-day policy meeting. Regardless of the size of the cut, investors buying up bitcoin are anticipating the looser lending conditions will lead to more speculative behavior. We could be seeing a recovery of investors' appetite for risk-on assets like crypto, instigating more flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs," said Leena ElDeeb, a research analyst at 21Shares. Seasonal factors weakened the spot bitcoin ETF inflows this summer while deteriorating macro conditions drove investors toward safe, risk-off assets.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Tuesday's, Leena ElDeeb, Alex Kuptsikevich, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, New York

☆ Gold hovers near record high ahead of Fed rate verdict
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee puts gold bullions into a safe deposit box at Degussa shop in SingaporeGold prices hovered near a record high on Tuesday, ahead of the anticipated start of the U.S. interest rate reduction cycle, which could see policymakers deliver an outsized cut. Spot gold was steady at $2,581.68 per ounce as of 0254 GMT. Bullion rose to a record high of $2,589.59 on Monday. Goldman Sachs reiterated its optimistic outlook on gold prices. "We find that ETF holdings backed by physical gold continue to rise gradually as the Fed policy rate comes down," it said in a note on Monday.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, there's, Nicholas Frappell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, ABC Refinery, Palladium Locations: Singapore, ., U.S .

☆ Stock market today: Indexes close mixed as tech stumbles and traders brace for Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks ended mixed on Monday ahead of the start of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points at the end of its meeting on Wednesday. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementStocks close mixed on Monday as traders and investors prepared for the start of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting group, is expected to deliver an interest rate cut at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Savita Subramanian, Apple, Morgan Stanley, Z Organizations: Apple, Service, Federal, Market Committee, Bank of America, Tech, Nasdaq, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micro, Micron Technology Locations: Here's

☆ Dollar weak as traders add to wagers of big rate cut from Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the Fed is all but certain to cut rates next week, uncertainty around whether it will go with a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis points has kept investors on the edge and weighed on the dollar. Analysts pointed to media reports from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal suggesting the Fed's decision would be a close call as one of the reasons for traders adding to wagers of a big rate cut next week. Higher U.S. jobless claims data released on Thursday and the Wall Street Journal article on the Fed's rate cut dilemma revived bets on a jumbo cut at the September meeting, according to Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC. Besides the Fed, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold policy meetings next week. "Risks remain that inflation may not return to target as easily as everyone, including the Fed, seems to expect."

Persons: Christopher Wong, Christine Lagarde, Ryan Brandham, Naoki Tamura, Sterling, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Wall, Traders, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Validus Risk Locations: North America

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 notches 5-day streak of gains ahead of next week's Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all posted gains amid rate cut speculation. Odds of a 50 basis point cut rose sharply this week from about 30% to 49%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notched a five-day win streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 300 points. Odds are split 49% / 51% for a 50 basis point or 25 basis point rate cut, respectively. Advertisement"A less aggressive Fed rate outlook could spark some volatility given market expectations," Adam said.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Open, Fed, Markets

McDonald’s will extend its $5 value meal into December in most U.S. markets as it looks to win back lower-income consumers. Franchisees have been voting on extending the value meal, and roughly 80% of local markets have opted to extend the deal into December. The value meal offers a McDouble or McChicken sandwich, small fries, four-piece chicken nuggets and a small soft drink for $5. The restaurant sector focused on value this summer, as companies including McDonald’s, Burger King and even Starbucks attempted to lure consumers in with discounted offerings. After McDonald’s posted declining second-quarter same-store sales in July, executives told restaurant operators and analysts the company would focus on how to recapture consumers with deals, as they pushed for an extension of the $5 value meal.

Persons: we’re, ”, Joe Erlinger, Burger King, McDonald’s, Erlinger Organizations: CNBC Locations: ” McDonald’s, U.S

☆ The current market is 'directionless,' one CIO says, naming 6 stocks he likes right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Defensive and dividend plays Alexander's strategy in playing the market right now is through defensive sectors and dividend players. As for dividend plays, Alexander is bullish on the utilities and telco sectors amid falling Treasury yields . Big pharma plays Alexander is also likes health-care and biotech players, especially big pharmaceutical companies producing products serving medical needs. Names he likes include AbbVie , AstraZeneca , Novartis and Johnson & Johnson . Johnson & Johnson, meanwhile, has been building out a "pipeline of drugs," Alexander added.

Persons: Ted Alexander, we've, we're, Alexander, it's, bullish, Durex, They've, Mead Johnson, Johnson Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Sydney, Telecommunications, AT, Verizon, Frontier Communications, London Stock Exchange, Big pharma, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Johnson Locations: U.S ., South Dallas, U.S

☆ McDonald's to extend $5 value meal offer into December in most U.S. markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Kate Rogers | In Katerog | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

McDonald's will extend its $5 value meal into December in most U.S. markets as it looks to win back lower-income consumers. Franchisees have been voting on extending the value meal, and roughly 80% of local markets have opted to extend the deal into December. Votes on extensions are ongoing, so additional locations may be added in the weeks to come. The value meal offers a McDouble or McChicken sandwich, small fries, four-piece chicken nuggets and a small soft drink for $5. Owners will also be offering local promotions in the weeks and months to come, in addition to the value bundle, the company said.

Persons: we're, Joe Erlinger

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Banks might not love lower rates unconditionally
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Big price reportsThe U.S. consumer price index for August comes out later today, while the producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, will be released a day later. They're the last major economic data the Federal Reserve will receive — and hence influence its decision on the size of cuts — before its meeting next week. Separately, JPMorgan shares fell 5.19% after the bank's president Daniel Pinto lowered expectations for next year's net interest income.

Persons: Dow, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, stagflation, Daniel Pinto Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Continental, BMW, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, U.S, Apple Intelligence Apple Locations: Basel

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Lower rates might hurt banks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Tough environment for European companiesChina's environment for businesses is so thorny that European companies have grown discouraged with operating in the country, according to the EU Chamber of Commerce. If European companies were to invest in China further, Beijing must act on its pledges to improve the business conditions, the chamber's paper wrote. CNBC Pro looked for companies headquartered overseas, but listed in the U.S. – and may experience over 100% upside, according to analysts.

Persons: Morgan, Dow, First Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Taylor Swift, Harris, Cat Lady Organizations: Canary, CNBC, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S ., Trump, EU Chamber of Commerce, Federal Reserve Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, Asia, Pacific, fracking, China, Instagram, Beijing, U.S

☆ Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations. Meanwhile, investors dashed their hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. AdvertisementThe surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Josh Jamner, Jack McIntyre Organizations: Fed, Service, Dow Jones, ClearBridge Investments, Brandywine Global Locations: Here's

☆ Ron Insana: Even as inflation cools, markets show that risks to the soft landing are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

What people say about growth and inflation doesn't matter much anymore – even as the latest consumer inflation report shows a cooling trend. That means a notable drop in both wholesale and consumer prices is coming down the road. Now, it appears that the U.S. is slipping behind the rest of the world, turning its policy actions toward growth risks rather than inflation risks. It's also important to remind Fed policymakers that there is ample evidence of slower consumer spending among middle-to-lower income families. Further, recent revisions to job growth in the 12-month period through March 2024 confirm that a soft landing is at risk.

Persons: Stocks, that's, We're, It's, Ron Insana Organizations: Treasury, U.S ., CNBC Locations: China, U.S

☆ Markets get nervous over high core inflation and see the Fed cutting slowly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as stocks whipsaw after inflation-fueled decline
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as traders reacted to a mixed inflation report. Core consumer prices rose more than expected, reducing chances of a 50 basis-point rate cut. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with investors staging a recovery after taking in a mixed inflation report. Odds for a 50 basis-point cut have been slashed by more than half to just 15%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets will assess August producer price inflation data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday and fresh retail sales data next Tuesday.

Persons: —, Bill Adams, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Traders, Comercia Bank, Bank of America, Tech, Nvidia, Here's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Did Apple’s shiny new things uplift markets?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineMaybe all it takes are shiny new things to lift our mood and take our minds off recession fears. Of course, Apple's event is not the sole reason markets rose yesterday. They'll also let us know if we can afford those shiny new things that Apple's dangling in front of us.

Persons: Pro Max, Justin Sullivan, I'm, Zers, CNBC's Kelly Evans, They'll, – CNBC's Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Pro, Apple, Getty, CNBC, Research, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Cupertino , California, U.S, Cupertino

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Did Apple’s shiny new things improve market sentiment?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nic Coury | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineMaybe all it takes are shiny new things to lift our mood and take our minds off recession fears. Of course, Apple's event is not the sole reason markets rose yesterday. They'll also let us know if we can afford those shiny new things that Apple's dangling in front of us.

Persons: HSI, Nic Coury, I'm, Zers, CNBC's Kelly Evans, They'll, – CNBC's Pia Singh, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Apple, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Research, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Cupertino , California, U.S, Cupertino

☆ Bank stock woes hold back the overall market, but Starbucks' new CEO is full steam ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

All of our Super Six megacaps were higher, even Club stock Apple was pushing to stay in the green after getting mixed reviews on Monday's iPhone 16 event. That's an interesting line because you could argue that Starbucks needs to pullback its aggressive expansion plans in the world's second-largest economy. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Daniel Pinto, Pinto, JPMorgan's, else's, Jamie Dimon, Wells, Morgan Stanley, ramping, Brian Niccol, Niccol, Buster's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., Apple, JPMorgan, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Dow, Starbucks, The Club, GameStop, Dave, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Banks, U.S, United States, China

☆ Goldman says watch out for more drawdowns, but the risk of a bear market is still low
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For investors who just weathered a bout of summer turbulence, Goldman Sachs said expect more patchiness in stocks, but believes the bull market will remain intact. "However, we think the risk of a bear market remains low with relatively low recession risk, helped by a healthy private sector and central bank easing." The stock market benchmark has since recouped much of the losses, recently trading some 3.4% below its July 16 all-time high. A bear market represents at least a 20% decline from the S & P 500's record high, while even a correction would amount to a 10% drawdown. … Encouragingly, though … we are not staring at a severe slowdown," Bank of America said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Goldman, Mueller, Glissmann, … Organizations: U.S, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ This week could shift the focus of a key narrative for Harris and Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Those two events are the kind of thing that, in normal times, are tracked mostly by economists and Wall Street types. For former President Donald Trump and the Republicans, the narrative is simple: Anything bad you’re feeling about inflation or the job market? Harris entered the race trailing Trump on a range of issues, including the economy. If that were the whole story, Trump might have a harder time disparaging Harris’ and President Joe Biden’s economic record. If the data doesn’t behave, however, then jobs — not inflation — may become the key economic narrative that Harris and Trump will start talking about in their stump speeches.

Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, we’re, pollsters, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Price, Trump, Harris ’, Joe Biden’s, it’s, ”, Aaron Sojourner, Heidi Shierholz, Biden, — Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Biden, Democratic, Trump, July’s, Fed, WE Upjohn, Employment Research, Economic Policy Institute, ”, of Labor Statistics Locations: New York, Washington

☆ The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.

Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ 'Winds of change' in the air on Wall Street after Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The tides are changing on Wall Street thanks to a closely watched market-moving figure: Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve chair on Friday pointed to rate cuts on the horizon during his keynote address at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks." The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the major indexes, rallying about 1% due to gains in popular artificial intelligence and semiconductor names. "This keeps a tailwind at the market's back into year-end, making it harder to expect a retest of this month's lows," said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, Russell, Powell, David Russell Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Covid

☆ Watch live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks from Jackson Hole conference
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech Friday morning at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell was widely expected to chart a path forward that includes interest rate reductions as the pace of inflation eases and concerns increase about the durability of the U.S. economic expansion. In previous years, he has used Jackson Hole to lay out significant policy initiatives and intentions. Markets widely expect the Fed to begin lowering rates in September and continue with a series of cuts through at least 2025. Read more:Fed minutes point to 'likely' rate cut coming in SeptemberFed survey shows lows in employment, worries about finding work and dissatisfaction with payPhiladelphia Fed President Harker advocates for interest rate cut in SeptemberSubscribe to CNBC on YouTube.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Read, Harker Organizations: Philadelphia, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago

☆ Rate cuts won't prevent a recession and the economy is deteriorating 'quite rapidly,' investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewMarkets are confident that rate cuts will benefit stocks and the economy, but one strategist says lower borrowing costs won't stave off a recession. Yet, BCA Research chief asset allocation strategist Garry Evans said this week that lower rates can't avert a looming downturn. "There's things that are breaking down quite rapidly now," Evans said, including recent manufacturing data. Related storiesEvans said labor and manufacturing data, plus a range of global data like weak Japanese exports, are showing signs of a tough economic outlook worldwide. AdvertisementEvans said the Fed will likely cut rates in September, but that it won't prevent a pending recession.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Stocks, Garry Evans, Evans Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Research, CNBC, Labor Department, Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management

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