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London CNN —[Breaking news] The Bank of England hiked interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Thursday, extending its long-running fight against inflation, which rose unexpectedly in February. The central bank made its 11th consecutive rate hike, taking its benchmark rate to 4.25%, the highest since October 2008. ET]The Bank of England is expected to hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point Thursday following an unexpected jump in inflation. The US Federal Reserve hiked rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday. Announcing its rate hike, Switzerland’s central bank said UBS’s weekend takeover of Credit Suisse had “put a halt” to the banking crisis.
From the labor market to consumer spending to inflation, key readings on the economy have been running hot. Although that might sound like good news for Main Street, it’s a problem for the Federal Reserve. After a spate of stronger-than-expected economic data, buckle up for an intense few weeks of Fed guessing, especially surrounding the tight labor market. The strong labor market means workers are enjoying the best wage growth in years. The next two weeks will serve as a crucial test on how much more medicine the economy needs.
Time to Get Used to Higher Rates
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
With inflation high, the job market tight and the economy chugging along, investors are coming to terms with the idea that the Federal Reserve will be setting rates higher for longer. But “longer” might mean even longer than the Fed expects. “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. That suggests not only that when it meets later this month, the Fed’s rate-setting committee will raise its target range on overnight interest rates once again, and perhaps by a half a percentage point if economic data over the next couple of weeks runs hot, but also that it may raise its assessment of how high it will lift rates over the course of the year.
Fed Official Says Hotter Data Will Warrant Higher Rates
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The Federal Reserve will need to raise rates to higher levels than previously anticipated to prevent inflation from picking up if the recent strength in hiring and consumer spending continues, a central bank official said Thursday. “I would be very pleased if the data we receive on inflation and the labor market this month show signs of moderation,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in remarks posted on the Fed’s website. “But wishful thinking is not a substitute for hard evidence in the form of economic data. After seeing promising signs of progress, we cannot risk a revival of inflation.”
Premarket stocks: SpinCos are the new SPACs
  + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The parent company may distribute the new company’s stock to its shareholders, allowing them to own shares in both. These smaller, newly formed companies are still in the process of establishing themselves in the market and often have lower profit margins than their parent company. It costs a lot to borrow these days and investors are looking for high profits and value stocks, writes Goldman. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have added significantly to the cost of government debt. “As we add trillion after trillion to our debt, the problem only gets worse and compounds.
London CNN —The latest inflation figures from the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union are feeding hopes that the worst is over and some relief for struggling households could arrive soon. Annual inflation in the United States slowed to 6.4% in January, easing for the seventh consecutive month. In the United Kingdom, which faces weaker economic prospects than its peers, the rate of price increases is also falling: In January, annual inflation dipped to 10.1% from a recent high of 11.1% this past fall. “The bottom line is inflation is still a problem,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. In the United States, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a version of the Consumer Price Index that tracks “sticky” prices.
Inflation has gone supercore
  + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The new favorite: supercore inflation. Supercore inflation refers to prices that rise when workers get paid more for their services. “Supercore inflation was a strong 6.4% on a year-over-year basis through December 2022, but it is moderating,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist. For the three months through December, supercore inflation is up only 2.4% annualized, and just 0.9% annualized in the month of December. “Supercore inflation is still way too hot, but it has begun to cool off, and all signs point to it and overall inflation getting back to something more comfortable over the coming 12-18 months,” Zandi told CNN.
The recent decline in the money supply comes as the Fed has been aggressively raising rates to push inflation back to its 2% target. That dynamic changed in the last two years, though, with money supply trends moving in roughly the same direction as inflation pressures: As money supply rose rapidly into early 2022, so did inflation; since M2 started a persistent decline last summer, inflation pressures have also receded. To be sure, measuring money supply is complicated, with no one way to do it. Bullard, acknowledging the cooling off of money supply, said this downshift in money "bodes well for disinflation," which means the Fed is likely to face an enduring trend of lower price pressures. Economists, meanwhile, are still taking on board whether money supply is something they need to pay greater mind to as they contemplate monetary policy and inflation.
New York CNN Business —Each week brings head-scratching contradictory news about the economy. This past week was no different, with a batch of economic reports showing that — despite the recession talk — the US economy shows remarkable resilience. Yes, the economy is strong. “The labor market is incredibly strong again,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech last month. That means the next year will no question be a challenge as all that tightening continues to work its way through the economy.
Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.
The robust jobs market is good news for American workers, but concerning for the Federal Reserve and equity bulls alike. “To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday. “But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation.” The year-over-year wage growth rate increased to 5.1% in November, more than double that goal. Getting back to a sustainable level of wage growth and tamping inflation will require reducing demand for labor. The dream is over: For the past year, Powell has advanced the optimistic idea that wage growth could be lowered without slowing the economy into recession.
New York CNN Business —Each week brings head-scratching contradictory news about the economy. Tthis past week was no different, with a batch of economic reports showing that — despite the recession talk — the US economy shows remarkable resilience. Yes, the economy is strong. Yes, economists are worried about a recession, but the job market is incredibly tight with more than 10 million open jobs and 1.7 jobs available for anyone who’s searching for one (or looking to job hop). That means the next year will no question be a challenge as all that tightening continues to work its way through the economy.
“It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. Powell said Fed estimates of inflation in October showed its preferred measure still rising at about triple the central bank’s 2% target. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped to about 4.47% from 4.52%. In rate futures markets, traders added to the prevailing bets that the Fed would slow its pace of rate hikes at its meeting in two weeks. Bottlenecks in goods production are easing and goods price inflation appears to be easing as well, and this, too, must continue.” But “we will likely see housing services inflation begin to fall later next year,” he said.
Premarket stocks: Wall Street bonus outlook is grim
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN Business —Ferragamo belt-buckles are being tightened across Wall Street as bankers prepare for a gloomy bonus season. “This is a canary in the coalmine for the economy, if the canary dies that’s not good for anybody,” said Johnson. In recent years, Amazon has gradually been growing its footprint in the health care sector. Earlier this year, Amazon agreed to acquire One Medical, a membership-based primary care service, for $3.9 billion. The big picture: Amazon isn’t the only Big Tech company attempting to cash-in on a chunk of the health care industry.
Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December. “We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech earlier this month.
But within those reports, investors found ominous clues about the future of the housing market, underscoring fears of an upcoming crisis. “We’ve had a time of a red-hot housing market all over the country,” Fed President Jerome Powell told me in September. “For the longer term what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned so that housing prices go up at a reasonable level…and people can afford houses again. “This is the sharpest turn in the housing market since the housing market crash in 2008,” said Redfin’s chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, last month. What’s next: Investors will next look to housing starts data next week as an indicator of where the housing market is headed.
A weakening labor market puts downward pressure on wages and inflation. The labor market is still tight with about 1.7 job openings for every unemployed worker in the US. New private employment data on Wednesday by payroll services firm ADP suggested that the labor market isn’t losing any steam. The rise in oil gave a lift to energy stocks, helping to boost the overall market, reports Paul R. La Monica. Plus: US Department of Labor reports weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.
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