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☆ Americans’ debt surpasses $17 trillion for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

To this point, credit card debt has been rising at the sharpest pace of any debt covered in the report, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate. Last year, 39% carried debt month to month. Increases in credit card debt can be a either sign of confidence or struggle, he added. “For the foreseeable future, we’re stuck with high credit card rates, high balances, and more people carrying debt,” he said. “My advice would be to pay down credit card debt, as quickly and cost effectively as possible.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s consumer price index
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets had a quiet Tuesday as investors braced for key inflation reports coming out later today and Thursday. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s CPI reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Investors are hoping April's CPI reading will show dipping prices. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That came with a corresponding decline of 0.3 percentage point in the overall outlook for inflation over the next year. All of those levels are still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, though they are drifting closer to the goal. Food prices are projected to rise by 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. The likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased to 41.8%, a 1.1 percentage point increase. Elsewhere in the survey, the one-year outlook for home price appreciation rose to 2.5%, the highest since July 2022 and a 0.7 percentage point increase from March.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

Summary Dip in China consumer inflation points to weak demandU.S. inflation report due on WednesdayComing up: API data on US crude stocks at 4:30 p.m. Brent crude futures settled up $1.43, or 1.7%, to $85.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $1.79, or 2.2%, to $81.53 a barrel. read moreA U.S. inflation report to be released on Wednesday is expected to help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates. OPEC output will fall by 500,000 bpd in 2023, then rise by 1 million bpd in 2024, after the group's output agreement expires, the Energy Information Administration forecast on Tuesday.

☆ Fed's Williams says interest rate path is data dependent
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 11 (Reuters) - The prospect of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate only once more and in a 25 basis point increment is a useful starting point but the central bank's policy path will depend on incoming data, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a 4.75%-5.00% range at that meeting. "We have to be driven by the data," Williams said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure is still running at more than twice that target rate. "So the real question to me is, we've gotten to restrictive (on policy), what's it going to take to be sufficiently restrictive?

☆ NY Fed index shows global supply chain pressures eased further in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said that as of March, its Global Supply Chain Pressure index moved to a reading of -1.06, versus the revised -0.28 seen in February. "Global supply chain conditions have largely normalized after experiencing temporary setbacks around the turn of the year," the bank said in its report. The index has seen extended periods of below-average supply chain stress and was in negative territory during the summer of 2019, ahead of the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. There was also an extended period of below-normal supply chain stress between roughly 2011 and 2016. But price pressures driven by non-energy service factors stripped of housing are "having the most trouble" abating, Williams said.

☆ Student-Loan Bills Are Set to Come Due, Adding Pressure on Younger Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Gabriel T. Rubin | Gwynn Guilford | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The expected restart of student-loan repayments later this year could add to pressure on younger borrowers, who are already falling behind on debt in an era of high inflation and rising interest rates. Americans in their 30s and younger are showing signs of financial strain. In the fourth quarter, they fell behind on credit-card payments by 90 days or more at a rate similar to that in 2009, at the end of the financial crisis. Those borrowers also hold more than 54% of outstanding student-loan debt, New York Federal Reserve data show.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's plan, China challenge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Powell's semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee is widely expected to condone the recent shift in market pricing toward more aggressive Fed rate hikes and a 'higher for longer' rate horizon. The Fed's accompanying report to Congress last week said there was clearly more work to do to curb inflation. As was the case after the last Fed meeting, Powell's unlikely to push back strongly against market re-pricing - not least ahead of the critical February employment report on Friday. Markets have scrambled to push up their bets on the likely peak Fed policy rate over recent weeks as U.S. jobs, retail and inflation soundings have run hotter than most expected. World stocks and Wall St futures were in a holding pattern for the most part ahead of the testimony.

☆ Consumers keep spending. That might not be good news for them or the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

And by November and December, those predictions appeared to be materializing, when data showed consumers had pulled back during the holiday shopping season. During a month chock full of suprisingly strong economic data, the Commerce Department’s retail sales and consumer spending reports far surpassed expectations. “It’s not sustainable to keep spending above their means.”Eyes on the FedHearty consumer spending at a time like this is a double-edged sword, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate and CreditCards.com. “The resilience of consumer spending is probably the biggest thing that’s pushed this recession timetable out,” Rossman said. The Home Depot (HD) warned of flat sales for 2023 as consumers continue shift spending from goods to services.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ Household debt, credit card balances and delinquencies all rose last quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Minneapolis CNN —Americans continued to add to their debt at the end of last year — and grew their credit card balances at record rates, according to data released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total US household debt hit $16.9 trillion during the fourth quarter, an increase of $394 billion, or 2.4%, from the prior three-month period, according to the Fed’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. While the lion’s share of the debt is attributable to mortgages, the report showed that not only are credit card balances swelling at record levels, delinquencies are on the rise as well. Credit card balances increased nearly 6.6% to $986 billion during the quarter, the highest quarterly growth on record, according to New York Fed data that goes back to 1999. And as debt is growing, Americans are having more trouble meeting payment obligations: The share of current debt becoming delinquent increased across nearly all debt types, with credit cards and auto loans showing delinquency transparency rates of 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors digest latest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as investors digested January's consumer price index report and looked ahead to further economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve speakers slated for the week. On Tuesday, the latest reading of the consumer price index, which tracks price changes for a range of goods and services, came in higher than expected and showed that inflation rose by 0.5% in January. Speaking at the New York Bank Association after the release of the CPI report, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the Fed's battle with inflation was not yet over. The Fed has been hiking interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation. On Wednesday, investors will be following the release of retail sales figures and awaiting the release of the producer price index report, as well as fresh comments from Fed officials on Thursday.

☆ Asian shares track Wall Street lower amid chorus of Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Governor Christopher Waller said the battle to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target "might be a long fight". But Governor Lisa Cook said the big job gains in January with moderating wage growth increased hopes of a "soft landing". The bond market rallied a little after being caught wrongfooted by the January blockbuster U.S. jobs report, forcing many to reposition for a higher peak in the Fed funds rate. The two-year Treasury yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, eased 2 basis points to 4.4375% on Thursday, while the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes slid 5 basis points to 3.6012%. In the oil market, Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $84.90 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also settled 0.1% lower at $78.36.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed made sure U.S. markets are listening: Interest rates will continue rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. After weeks of defying the Federal Reserve, U.S. markets realized that interest rate hikes are probably here to stay. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: U.S. markets got the Fed’s message: Interest rate hikes are probably here to stay
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

After weeks of defying the Federal Reserve, U.S. markets realized that interest rate hikes are probably here to stay. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In a wave of downbeat news, investors may indeed need a telescope to find some good news in the near term. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ European markets head for higher open as investors weigh up economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a higher open Thursday as investors weigh up the economic outlook and interest rate trajectory. U.S. stock futures rose slightly Wednesday night as investors took in more big corporate earnings reports while stocks in the Asia-Pacific traded mixed on Thursday, as investors assessed risks of more interest rate hikes. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is easing, but rates could still rise. A number of Federal Reserve speakers reiterated the central bank is yet to be finished with its hiking cycle, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said Wednesday that "we have farther to go" to fight inflation. Elsewhere Wednesday, New York Fed President John Williams said that if financial conditions continue to loosen, the Federal Reserve could be forced to push interest rates higher than expected.

☆ Morning bid: No safety net?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I just think we need to keep going," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. And many forecasters are now wary the Fed will err on the side of tighter policy to ensure inflation is slayed. Markets wobbled on the prospect on Wednesday, with the S&P500 (.SPX) staging its biggest decline of the year so far. At 3.32%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since September. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Changing nature of inflation prompts new inequalities, New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"As prices in other categories have begun to rise more rapidly, the pattern of inflation inequality is changing with groups that have larger expenditure shares on these components ... experiencing higher inflation," New York Fed economists wrote in a blog post. Asian American/Pacific Islander households are most impacted by rising housing inflation, the New York Fed said. To illustrate the changing patterns, the researchers showed that in June 2021, as transportation costs soared, the inflation rate for Hispanic households was more than 1.5 percentage points above the national average. In December 2022, the inflation disparity for Hispanic households fell to about 0.27 percentage point. But in December 2022, the bottom 40% by income had the highest year-on-year inflation rate, while the inflation rate for middle-income households was now below the national average.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. Adding to angst, New York Fed President John Williams said it remains possible the U.S. central bank raises rates more than it expects next year. The policymaker added that he does not anticipate a recession from the Fed's aggressive tightening. The simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts later in the day, known as triple witching, could cause volatility through the trading session. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and 15 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 29 new highs and 267 new lows.

☆ Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In addition to the brightened short-term outlook, the inflation-rate projection for three years from now edged lower to 3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The most recent annual inflation rate as gauged by the consumer price index was 7.7% in October. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading. The survey comes as Fed officials have indicated the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike coming this week when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. Respondents to the New York Fed survey said they see gas prices rising 4.7% and food up 8.3% in the year ahead.

☆ Dollar holds firm as China's COVID-related worries weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Harish Sridharan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The euro , which surged to a five-month peak of $1.0497 overnight, later reversed those gains following a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower by 0.1% at 106.50, after rising 0.5% overnight. The greenback had extended gains after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the Fed needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates by an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14. The offshore yuan reversed some of its losses in the previous session and was about 0.4% higher at 7.2136 per dollar.

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