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Economists Ed Hyman is backing off his call for a hard landing, even though he still sees the potential for a recession ahead. "History and experience say to stick with a hard landing outlook," he said in a client note Thursday. "However, the hard math that our team has reviewed says flip to a soft landing outlook. "In our view, arguments for a hard landing are still persuasive," Hyman wrote. "So this flip could be a mistake," Hyman wrote.
Persons: Ed Hyman, Hyman, Ally, Russell Hutchinson, it's Organizations: ISI, Atlanta Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
The third-quarter estimated tax deadline for 2024 is Monday, Sept. 16, and skipping a payment could trigger a penalty, according to the IRS. Typically, you need estimated payments for any income without tax withholdings, such as earnings from self-employment, contract or gig economy work and investment or retirement income. Some filers also need estimated payments if they haven't withheld enough taxes from a full-time or part-time job. Estimated payments can help avoid "refund disappointment or balance due shock," said Mark Steber, chief tax information officer at Jackson Hewitt. You can find adjusted gross income on line 11 of Form 1040 from your 2023 tax return.
Persons: Mark Steber, Jackson Hewitt, Organizations: Finance, Security Locations: Washington
Here are Friday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Raymond James initiates Arm as outperform Raymond James said the semis company is well positioned for AI. Citi downgrades Capri Holdings to neutral from buy Citi said the risk/reward is more balanced for the owner of brands like Michael Kors. UBS reiterates Oracle as buy UBS raised its price target on the stock to $200 per share from $175. The feedback on Oracle's top-line growth was overall positive..." UBS reiterates PNC as buy UBS said the bank is a high conviction idea. " Citi resumes Eli Lilly as buy Citi resumed coverage of the stock and says it's well positioned.
Persons: Raymond James, Jefferies, SLG, CFRA, it's, datopotamab, Michael Kors, haven't, Morgan Stanley, EQT, Citi, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Tesla, BEV, Wells Organizations: Arm Holdings, ARM, Citi, Green, Kroger, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Deutsche Bank, AstraZeneca, Deutsche, Capri Holdings, Barclays, Garmin, GM, BMO, GE, UBS, Oracle, Oracle's, PNC, JPMorgan, Netflix, JPMorgan downgrades Moderna, Nvidia, NVIDIA Locations: GenAI, New York, Rio, RIO, Las Vegas
Wells Fargo initiates Blackrock as overweight Wells Fargo said the asset manager is well positioned. " Bernstein reiterates Nvidia & Broadcom as top ideas Bernstein said both stocks remain top picks at the firm and that margin fears are overdone. Bernstein reiterates Oracle as a top idea Bernstein said it sees "increasing revenue growth" for Oracle. " Morgan Stanley reiterates Amazon, Alphabet and Meta as overweight Morgan Stanley said the three internet giant's are well positioned in the ad market. Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley named Apple to its Vintage Values list as a stock to own for the next 12 months.
Persons: Wells, Wells Fargo, Stephens, Bernstein, Blackwell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jefferies, McDonald's, it's, Wolfe, Apple, Raymond James Organizations: Simon Property Group, SPG, Blackstone, Apollo, TPG, SF, APO, Blackrock, Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, Bank of America, Diageo, of America, Barclays, TAM, CTV, FedEx, UBS, Costco, " Bank of America, Apple, Micron
The bank raised its price target on MercadoLibre Thursday to $2,500 from $2,225, suggesting 22% upside from Wednesday's close. The bank increased its price target to $230 from $200, implying nearly 16% upside from Wednesday's close. Supino also lifted the firm's price target to $93 a share, reflecting about 33% upside from Wednesday's close. Analyst Adam Berlin lowered his 12-month price target to $29 from $34, implying 6% downside. The investment firm's price target of $159 implies more than 2% downside from Wednesday's close.
Persons: Robert Ford Aguilar, — Michelle Fox, Wells, Wells Fargo, Eric Luebchow, Luebchow, Lisa Kailai Han, Sean Conlon, Wolfe, Peter Supino, Supino, Samantha Subin, BofA, George Staphos, a.m, Adam Berlin, Berlin, IPG, — Sean Conlon, Bernstein, Mark Moerdler, — Lisa Kailai Han, Stifel, Simon Yarmak, Andrea Pistacchi, Brandt Montour, it's, Montour, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Barclays, Bank of America, Diageo, Mercado, Mobile, Sprint, Wolfe Research, UBS downgrades, UBS, billings, GM, Pfizer, Oracle, Simon Property, Property Group, SPG, U.S, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Brazil, Mercado Pago, Wells Fargo, Wells, Roku, Berlin, America, U.S
Dutch digital bank Bunq is plotting re-entry into the U.K. to tap into a "large and underserved" market of some 2.8 million British "digital nomads." "Bunq focusses on digital nomads who tend to roam the world," Ali Niknam, Bunq's CEO and co-founder, told CNBC via emailed comments. And in the U.K., Bunq is awaiting a decision from financial regulators on an application to become a licensed e-money institution, or EMI. Many of these positions will be part of a "tailored digital nomad" program that allows staff to work from anywhere in the world, Bunq said. Bunq earlier this year reported its first full year of profitability, generating 53.1 million euros ($58.51 million) in net profit in 2023.
Persons: Pavlo Gonchar, Bunq, Britain's, Ali Niknam, Niknam, Coinbase, Klarna, Bunq's Niknam Organizations: Getty Images, CNBC, European Union, U.S, EMI, PayPal Locations: United States, Amsterdam, Sofia, Istanbul, Munich, Paris, Dublin, Madrid, London, New York City
Leaders at OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft , Google and several American power and utility companies met Thursday at the White House to discuss the future of artificial intelligence energy infrastructure in the U.S., sources familiar with the meeting told CNBC. An OpenAI spokesperson told CNBC that the company believes building additional infrastructure in the U.S. is critical to the country's industrial policy and economic future. by ensuring data-centers are built in the United States while ensuring the technology is developed responsibly," White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson told CNBC. White House chief of staff Jeff Zients and White House deputy chief of staff Bruce Reed also attended, according to a source. Anthropic counts Amazon as a leading investor, while OpenAI is heavily backed by Microsoft.
Persons: Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Ruth Porat, OpenAI, Biden, Harris, Joe, Kamala, Robyn Patterson, Gina Raimondo, Jennifer Granholm, Jake Sullivan, Ali Zaidi, Kristine Lucius, John Podesta, Jeff Zients, Bruce Reed, Anthropic, government's Organizations: Microsoft, Google, White, CNBC, CNN, U.S . National, White House, AI Safety, Department of Commerce, National Institute of Standards, Technology, Biden Locations: U.S, America, Wisconsin , California , Texas, Pennsylvania, A.I, United States
New York CNN —The Republican nominee for president went on live TV and presented an unhinged, debunked Facebook rumor as fact. Scrolling on Facebook or X, it’s hard not to see some of that chaos creeping into the mainstream. Just a few weeks ago, the former president posted an AI-generated image on his Truth Social platform that suggested Taylor Swift had endorsed him. Of course, it was a fake image — the same kind of obvious AI slop that has overrun Facebook and X. Either Trump didn’t know the image was fake, or he didn’t mind lying to his followers and perpetuating the fake endorsement.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Donald Trump, , , Jake Tapper, It’s, Clare Duffy, Elon Musk, ” Musk, there’s, Alex Brandon, Barack Obama, Taylor Swift, Trump, he’s, Kamala Harris, Swift, JD Vance, who’s, “ Fine Taylor Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Republican, 4chan, Meta, Trump, AP, Facebook Locations: New York, Ohio
Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979. In this episode of "Just the Facts," the US Economy and your Pocketbook. Let's take a look at the economy and how it is working or not working for you. To measure inflation, let's start by looking at the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979, and they grew another 5% between 2022 and 2023.
Persons: Steve Ballmer, USAFacts, COVID, it's, There's Organizations: Insider Studios, LA Clippers, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Real, Social Security Locations: America, United
Financial planner Nadine Burns says with the right strategy, you can reach your retirement goals. Below, Burns shares the strategy she uses to help her clients achieve their retirement goals. Understand your net worthBurns says understanding your net worth — and tracking it throughout your working years — is the first step to retiring comfortably. Your net worth should rise throughout your working years and allow you to retire with more assets than debts. To find your net worth, add up all of your assets then subtract your debts.
Persons: Nadine Burns, It's, , Burns, you've, doesn't Organizations: Service, Social Security, Invest, IRA
UK economy flatlines again in July, below expectations
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
LONDON — The U.K. economy continued to flatline in July on a month-on-month basis, flash figures published from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. Britain's economic growth was up 0.5% in the three month to July, slightly below economist expectations and the 0.6% recorded in the second quarter ending in June. The U.K. economy had recorded modest but steady expansion almost every month so far this year, having emerged from a shallow recession at the start of the year. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said the print left her "under no illusion" of the challenges faced by the U.K. economy. But she added that further movement in interest rates anticipated from the Bank of England could help ease wider growth pressures.
Persons: Liz McKeown, Keir Starmer's, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Jeremy Hunt, Lindsay James, James Organizations: Office, National Statistics, Gross, Reuters, Labour, Conservative, Quilter Investors, Treasury, Bank of England Locations: flatline, U.K
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs downgrades Morgan Stanley to neutral from buy Goldman said it sees better value elsewhere than Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs upgrades Evercore to buy from neutral Goldman said the investment banking firm is "best in class." JPMorgan reiterates Nvidia as overweight JPMorgan said stocks such as Nvidia are "strong beneficiaries in the emerging AI arms race." Morgan Stanley reiterates Arm as a top pick Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating on the semiconductor chip company. Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating on shares of Apple.
Persons: Goldman Sachs downgrades Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Rosenblatt, Canaan, Jefferies, Williams, Guggenheim, it's, orals, it's bullish, Bernstein, Robinhood, Wells, Shopify, Truist, Wolfe Organizations: NASDAQ, JPMorgan, Viking Therapeutics, Citi, Apollo Global Citi, APO, U.S, " Bank of America, Novartis, Bank of America, Nvidia, Apple, Spotify, Disney, AES, ~$ Locations: Canaan, Williams, Sonoma, 2030E
The company's innovation pipeline provide long-term growth potential, with the earnings event likely serving as a catalyst for further upside. With expected EPS growth of 14% and revenue growth of 11%, Adobe maintain its leadership in the software industry. To capitalize on the potential for an earnings-driven rally, we suggest using a "broken wing butterfly," which offers a high reward-to-risk ratio. Specifically, I suggest the ADBE Sep 20, 2024 $585/630/650 Call butterfly at $10.96 Debit. This strategy entails: • Buying the Sep 20 $585 Calls @ $18.80 • Selling the Sep 20 $630 Calls (2 contracts) @ $5.53 • Buying the Sep 20 $650 Calls @ $3.22 This butterfly strategy offers a maximum reward of $3,404 per contract while limiting risk to only $1,096 per contract.
Organizations: Adobe, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
France's challenges are far from over, however, with the country facing acute fiscal challenges and an ongoing threat posed by the far-right National Rally opposition, led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. France this week asked the Commission to extend its deadline of Sept. 20 to submit debt reduction proposals. Analysts say Barnier's political survival therefore "depends on the whims and personal-political calculations of Le Pen." "The great unknown ... is how far Le Pen will be willing to address the most immediate crisis facing Barnier and the country: the painful choices needed to prevent France from plunging into a destructive fiscal crisis by the end of this year," he said. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the final rally before the June 9 European Parliament election, held at Le Dôme de Paris - Palais des Sports, on June 2, 2024.
Persons: La France Insoumise, Remon Haazen, Emmanuel Macron's, Michel Barnier, Jordan Bardella, Pen, Barnier's, Gabriel Attal, Sarah Meyssonnier, Reuters Barnier's, Macron —, Le, Mujtaba Rahman, France's, Eurasia Group's Rahman, Le Pen's Organizations: Republique, La, Getty, Getty Images, Veteran, National Assembly, European, France's, Reuters, New, National, Eurasia Group, Le, Palais des Sports, Nurphoto Locations: La France, Paris, France, Europe, Eurasia
But broadband companies have been focused on transitioning their customers to other affordable options to help them make up the expired discount, according to the companies’ earnings calls. In the wake of the ACP’s expiration, broadband companies have reported losing some customers. While broadband providers were generally supportive of the ACP, many in the industry believed the subsidy benefitted too wide a swath of U.S. households. During the second quarter, Charter reported a loss of 149,000 internet customers, while Comcast reported a decline of 120,000 broadband customers. Charter has tried to retain its low-income consumer base by rolling out new savings deals like offering ACP customers a free unlimited mobile line for one year.
Persons: , , Craig Moffett, , Blair Levin, Mike Carey, Nikki Budzinski, GOP Sen, JD Vance, Ohio, Donald Trump’s, Vance quieted, ” Gigi Sohn, Joe Biden, Sohn, Wall, they’re, ” Sohn, ” Carey, ” Budzinski, Chris Winfrey, “ We’ve, ” Moffett, MoffettNathanson, Gigi Sohn’s Organizations: Charter, Verizon, Comcast, Program, Federal Communications Commission, Democratic, Republican, Street Research, CNBC, NBC News, Capitol, Republicans, Emergency, GOP, Republican House, ACP, FCC, , Universal Service Fund, USF, Charter Communications Locations: MoffettNathanson, Ohio, U.S, New York
Understanding business loansWhat is a business loan? Types of business loans availableYou need to determine what you will use the money for before applying for a business loan, as there are various loan types. "Business loan options are abundant, and it can be very easy to obtain business financing," says Grayson. After the applicationWhat to expect after applyingLenders generally look at your time in business, credit scores (both your business credit score and personal credit score), cash flow, collateral, and the industry the business is in. Business loan FAQsWhat credit score is needed to get a business loan?
Persons: you've, Gina Taylor Cotter, You'll, Noah Grayson, Grayson, you'll, Matt Brewster, Brewster, Ryan Wangman, Read Organizations: GM, Global, Services, American Express, Small Business Administration, South End, Estate Bees, Nonprofit, Chevron, Finance, Northwestern University, Boston Globe
Here’s a look at what could happen to inflation, jobs and the deficit if Trump or Harris win in November. That, among other things, would keep the top tax rate individuals pay at 37% compared to 39.6% before it went into effect. Meanwhile, the tax proposals Harris has put forth so far mostly involve imposing higher taxes, which would have a positive impact on the deficit. For instance, she’s endorsed raising the top individual income tax rate to 44.6% and the top long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% versus the current 20%. Taken together, the Penn Wharton Budget model estimates Harris’ proposals could increase the deficit by an additional $1.2 trillion by 2034.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Trump, Warwick McKibbin, Goldman, she’s, , Justin Wolfers, Kevin Dietsch, He’s, Elon Musk, She’s, Joshua Gotbaum Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Gross, University of Michigan, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Wharton Budget, Social Security, Penn, Wharton Budget Model, Penn Wharton Budget, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, United States, Penn
"This is Hainan trying hard to forge its branding as an international destination," said Michael Zhou, founder of Jingjian, a consultancy specializing in China tourism. The tropical island of Hainan, dubbed the "Hawaii of China," has long been a top travel destination for domestic tourists. According to Zhou, the bulk of Hainan's tourism income comes from hotel stays and duty-free shopping. "As it is the largest duty-free channel in China, Hainan's duty-free sales decline is inevitable," said Charlie Chen, head of Asian Research at China Renaissance, a financial institution. Ye and the China connectionCDF Haikou International Duty Free City is one of many duty-free malls on the Chinese island of Hainan.
Persons: Du, Ye, Michael Zhou, Zhou, netizens, Ye's, Charlie Chen, Hainan's, Luo Yunfei Organizations: straitlaced Communist Party, Communist, Hainan's Provincial, of Statistics, Haikou, Asian Research, Duty, China News Service, Getty Locations: Hainan, Shanghai, China, Weibo, Beijing, Ye, Hawaii
"We launch coverage of GE Aerospace with an Outperform rating, target price $201." (ELF) with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $175 per share." "We initiate with a Buy rating on Harmony , a commercial stage biotech focused on CNS [central nervous system] disorders." "We are initiating coverage of ProKidney Corp. (PROK) with a BUY rating and $6 price target." We are initiating coverage with a BUY rating and $600 price target."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Apple, Tesla, it's, Bernstein, Riley, Wolfe, Stryker, BUD, JMP, Redburn, BTIG, Palantir, Goldman Sachs, Nutrien, Goldman, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, Melius, Johnson, Guggenheim, it's bullish, D.A, Davidson, Meta Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence, Intelligence, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, GE Aerospace, GE, Inc, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Oracle, Costco, Equity, Haemonetics, Plasma Solutions, Blood Center, Hospital Care Solutions, " Bank of America, Bank of America, UBS, Amazon, Harmony Biosciences, NTR, Nvidia, Broadcom, Johnson, Johnson Controls, ProKidney Corp
As the election ramps up, many investors are focused on capital gains taxes and how proposals from both parties could impact their assets. Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris last week proposed a 28% tax on long-term capital gains, or profits from the sale of assets owned for more than one year, for those making more than $1 million annually. Her plan would also raise the net investment income tax, or NIIT, from 3.8% to 5%, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. If Harris proposes raising the NIIT to 5%, the combined rate would be 33% for top earners. Biden's plan would raise the combined rate to 44.6%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Sen, Bernie Sanders, NBC's, Harris, filers Harris, Joe Biden's Organizations: Democratic, Sunday, Finance, IRS, Street Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, U.S, Bedminster , New Jersey
Charles Coristine used to revel in working at Morgan Stanley. At a barbeque, Coristine met an owner of snack company LesserEvil, who talked about wanting to sell his "flatlining" business. A 'scrappy' reinventionWhen he bought LesserEvil, Coristine was working at TD Bank and pursuing an MBA at Cornell University Graduate School. It brought in roughly $2 million that year, accounting for a third of LesserEvil's annual revenue, the company says. A year later, the company got its first outside funding — about $3 million, the company says — from sustainable food and agriculture investment firm InvestEco.
Persons: Charles Coristine, revel, Morgan Stanley, Coristine, that's, Andrew Strife, welders, LesserEvil, Homer, Henry David Thoreau, Organizations: CNBC, U.S, TD Bank, Cornell University Graduate School, packers, Kroger, LesserEvil, Growth Locations: Tokyo, London, Danbury , Connecticut, Wilton , Connecticut, Danbury, New Milford
The European Union has successfully avoided the "terrible prophecies" that threatened its economy in recent years, but must still contend with Russia's war in Ukraine and a tenuous trade relationship with China, outgoing European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni said Saturday. A former prime minister of Italy, Gentiloni has served as the European Commissioner for Economy under EC President Ursula von der Leyen since December 2019. Gentiloni will not be returning for a second term as commissioner following Von der Leyen's tumultuous re-election as president — but he has laid out the economic picture that awaits his imminent successor. "The economy is growing, slowly, but growing. And the risks of differences among the European Union, that was very high when the pandemic happened, are very limited," he noted.
Persons: Paolo Gentiloni, Gentiloni, Steve Sedgwick, Ursula von der Leyen, Von der, , Russia's Organizations: European Union, Economy, European, European Central Bank, Moscow, European Commission Locations: Ukraine, China, Europe, Cernobbio, Italy's, Como, Italy
European private equity firm Hg expressed interest in buying a majority stake in the enterprise software company. For startups, private equity represents a deep-pocketed buyer willing to move quickly, pay a premium, and potentially help the business by tapping into complementary companies in their portfolio. AuditBoard is the kind of startup that private equity goes gaga over. Bidding warArnold then delivered the pitch deck that he had shown to public market investors just weeks before. Here's the 19-slide pitch deck that AuditBoard used to court a $3 billion buyout from private equity.
Persons: , Scott Arnold, Morgan Stanley, Arnold, AuditBoard, Corporates, Daniel Kim, Jay Lee, It's, Fortune, Alex Johnson, Johnson, Morgan Stanley's, Roxanne Oulman's, Nic, Humphries — Hg's, Goldman Sachs, Humphries, he's Organizations: Service, Business, Battery Ventures, Tiger Global, Morgan Locations: Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Shutterfly, Paris
CNN —The US economy appears to be on a knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. Economists are expecting that the August report should reaffirm that the labor market is merely cooling versus outright weakening. Inflation had cooled, and the labor market was rolling right along and doing its part to keep consumers spending and the economy churning. Friday’s jobs report should provide further reassurance that the labor market is merely softening and not collapsing, economists predict. “It would be a mistake to define the labor market as being excessively weak at this stage.”Instead, the signals indicate that the labor market has moved from being extremely strong and into better balance, she said.
Persons: ” Tuan Nguyen, , ” Karin Kimbrough, , ” Oliver Allen, ” Allen, , Andrew Challenger, Nick Bunker, Pantheon’s Allen, Beryl “, Mike Skordeles Organizations: CNN, RSM, Federal, LinkedIn, Labor, Department of Labor, “ Companies, Pantheon Macroeconomics, BLS, Employers, ADP, Challenger, Technology, , North America, Bank of America Locations: US, Michigan, Texas
Roth contributions don't get the same upfront tax break: Investors fund Roth IRAs with after-tax money, but generally don't pay income taxes on earnings or withdrawals in retirement. The 'only reason' to save in a nondeductible IRALordhenrivoton | E+ | Getty ImagesHigh earners can contribute to a so-called nondeductible IRA, however. The ability to use the backdoor Roth IRA is a major benefit of these accounts, tax experts said. watch now"The only reason you'd do [a nondeductible IRA] is if the intention was to do a backdoor Roth," Slott said. "All high wage earners should consider looking at both a backdoor Roth IRA and a mega backdoor Roth IRA if they can't set up a Roth IRA," said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner and founder of oXYGen Financial, based in Atlanta.
Persons: Thomas Barwick, Roth, Slott, Ted Jenkin, He's Organizations: Investors, Roth IRA, IRA, CNBC, Taxpayers, IRS, Arnold, Mote Wealth Management, Medicare, nondeductible Locations: deductibility, Atlanta, Hiawatha , Iowa
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