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Oil prices will remain under pressure until the Fed eases up on monetary tightening, Bank of America said. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is trying to boost oil prices by cutting production. Energy markets are facing a "battle royale" between the top oil exporter and the Federal Reserve. In a note last week, BofA commodities strategist Francisco Blanch pointed to the downward trend in oil prices compared to last summer, when oil hit triple digits. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia announced a production cut of 1 million barrels per day starting in July, piling onto prior cuts from earlier this year.
Persons: , Francisco Blanch, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Jay Powell, Blanch, Brent Organizations: Bank of America, Energy, Federal Reserve, Service, Privacy Policy, Fed, US Federal Reserve Locations: Saudi Arabia, Privacy Policy Saudi Arabia, China
Tuesday’s inflation report, which covers May, will offer the latest evidence on how well the fight against inflation is working. The annual inflation rate probably cooled last month, easing to 4.1 percent from 4.9 percent in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would leave the inflation rate at less than half of last summer’s 9 percent peak. Monthly core inflation is expected to remain at 0.4 percent, a pace that economists at JPMorgan called “uncomfortably high” in a note previewing the release. inflation figures — set for release on June 30 — and offer a more timely snapshot of inflation trends, which is what makes the report so important.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Barclays
The fresh data offer the latest evidence that the Fed’s push to control rapid price increases is beginning to work. Investors have been betting that Fed officials will leave rates unchanged at their meeting this week, breaking their long streak of increases. Even so, many investors continue to expect that Fed officials will restart rate increases in July. That “core” price index rose 5.3 percent in May compared with a year earlier. And price increases for goods excluding motor vehicles remained positive, instead of subtracting from inflation as some economists have been expecting.
Persons: , ” Laura Rosner, Warburton, Airfares, Ms, Rosner, Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association
Investors worry about market ructions if Ueda hikes rates now but there is another risk: that he waits too long. Reuters GraphicsUeda’s inaction – and the domestic markets’ positive response – have bought him time to focus on evaluating macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly inflation. The country only emerged from a decades-long deflationary rut relatively recently, so local economists, executives and consumers are unused to worrying about consumer prices rising too fast. The government’s latest draft of its long-term economic plan, seen by Reuters on June 2, remains focused on eradicating Japan's “long-held deflationary mindset”. "We expect inflation to quite clearly slow below 2%" toward the middle of the current fiscal year, Ueda told parliament.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, , , Richard Koo, Shinzo Abe, Francesco Guerrera, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Bank for International, Toyota, Toshiba, Black Monday, Japan Inc, International Monetary Fund, of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, United States, U.S, Great, China, Europe, Germany, Italy, of Japan’s
The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."
Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central
Russia's central bank sounded alarms on inflation amid the falling ruble and a record labor shortage. Since then, the central bank has brought rates back down as inflation has cooled. Other data have shown Russia is suffering from a record labor shortage as Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine delivered a major shock to the workforce. And the mass exodus of Russians to other countries to escape military service or economic hardship has made the labor shortage even worse. The labor shortage also contributed to a sharp drop last month in Russia's industrial production, which tumbled 5% from the prior month.
Persons: , Elvira Nabiullina, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: Service, Reuters, Kremlin Locations: Ukraine, Russia
Morning Bid: Wall St 'bull', China deflation
  + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Its annual consumer price inflation rate was just 0.2% - also below forecast. But along with easing supply chain pressures and annual crude oil price deflation still near 40%, there was enough to restore hopes that central bank tightening is gaining traction and further extreme moves unnecessary. The Bank of Japan is expected to retain its super-easy money policy and the European Central Bank is due to nudge up rates another quarter point. On the hawkish side, the International Monetary Fund on Thursday urged global central banks to "stay the course" on monetary policy and remain vigilant. Events to watch for later on Friday:* Canada May employment reportReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Susan Fenton <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.
Persons: Mike Dolan, abating, El Nino, Binance.US, Donald Trump, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Bank of Japan, Ukraine, Miami
That's because inflation may not fall enough while the economy stays strong. The firm warned that rate hikes could continue, which would be a headwind for the stock market. Colas predicted that the rally in stocks will continue through the end of June, though the market could face a conundrum in the third quarter as inflation and Fed rate expectations become repriced. Commentators have warned more rate hikes are in order before the Fed gets inflation fully under control, though higher rates will likely be a headwind for stocks. The S&P 500 slumped 20% last year amid the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, notching its worst performance since 2008.
Persons: DataTrek, , Nicholas Colas, Colas, that's Organizations: Service, Research, Federal, Fed
He will replace Patrick Njoroge, who is retiring after serving two terms as the central bank governor since 2015. In a voice vote, lawmakers adopted the report of the National Assembly's finance committee, which urged the house to back his appointment after vetting his suitability for the post. His predecessor, Njoroge, has maintained stable prices for most of his eight years at the helm. But the World Bank expects growth to edge up to 5.0% in 2023, underpinned by a recovery in agriculture. Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Writing by Alexander Winning; Editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Thugge, William Ruto's, Kamau, Ruto, Patrick Njoroge, Duncan Miriri, Alexander Winning, David Evans Organizations: Njoroge, National, Johns Hopkins University, International Monetary Fund, Kenyan, Treasury, Bank, Thomson Locations: Ruto, U.S
TSX pares gains after surprise BoC rate hike
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Ankika Biswas | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
June 7 (Reuters) - Canadian stocks pared gains on Wednesday after the country's central bank's surprise decision to raise its benchmark interest rates, while a boost from energy shares helped keep the main stock index afloat. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 0.05%, after rising as much as 0.4% to 20,149.95 ahead of the rate decision. The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked the key rate to 4.75%, the highest level in 22 years, on increasing concerns that inflation could get stuck significantly above its 2% target. Canadian money markets see a near-50% chance of another rate hike in July, fully pricing in further tightening by September. BOCWATCHInvestors are now on the lookout for inflation data out of the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.
Persons: Diana Avigdor, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shilpi Majumdar Organizations: Toronto Stock, Bank of Canada, BoC, Capital Management, BOCWATCH, Energy, North West Company, Thomson Locations: China, Bengaluru
A change in the country’s economic policy could reverse what several economists argue has been an unsustainable and reckless course. The president has repeatedly flouted conventional economic wisdom by maintaining that high interest rates fuel inflation. Most economists argue the opposite: Higher interest rates makes borrowing more expensive, which slows down investment and spending and, in turn, reins in price increases. When central bankers resisted pressure to lower interest rates, Mr. Erdogan fired them. That is why the government did everything it could to protect the lira’s value before the presidential election, Mr. Tastan said.
Persons: Mr, Erdogan, Goldman Sachs, Kadri Tastan, Tastan, , Organizations: German Marshall Fund Locations: Turkey, Brussels
REUTERS/Kaylee Greenlee BealNEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - Supply chain pressures cooled again in May, New York Fed data showed, in a development that further eased what had been one of the key factors that had helped drive surging inflation pressures around the work. The New York Fed said on Tuesday that its latest Global Supply Chain Pressure Index stood at -1.71, from the revised -1.35 for April. The report said supply chain pressures were below average in all regions of the world considered in the index. After peaking in December 2021 at a reading of 4.31, the New York Fed index has been steadily retreating as supply chain kinks generated by the coronavirus pandemic have gotten worked out. Supply chain pressures had been a key factor in pushing up inflation, which in turn drove central banks like the Federal Reserve toward aggressive rate increases to bring price pressures back in line.
Persons: Greenlee Beal, it's, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: San Antonio Shoe, REUTERS, , New York Fed, New York Fed, New, Fed, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Del Rio , Texas, U.S, , New York, Great Britain, Taiwan
The US is in a cardboard box recession, Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop said. According to the Fibre Box Association, that's led to a drop in cardboard box demand – an overlooked recession indicator that has preceded previous downturns for the US economy. "The Cardboard Box Recession may be good news for inflation," Kleintop said, pointing to positive inflation trends in Europe. The Fed could pause rate hikes as the inflation situation improves, which commentators have said could be bullish for stocks. The five-year, five-year forward rate, an estimate of the five-year inflation rate five years from now, dropped to 2.23% this week, per Federal Reserve data.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop, Kleintop, , Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, that's Organizations: Service, Fibre, Association, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Europe
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its latest interest rate decision on Tuesday, undoubtedly the centerpiece event for Asian and Pacific markets but potentially of interest to U.S. Fed watchers too. Interest rate futures markets currently attach a 66% chance the RBA pauses, and a one-in-three chance it raises the cash rate by a quarter point to 4.10%. Holders of Australian assets will be pay particularly close attention to policymakers' statement and RBA governor Philip Lowe's press conference after the decision for guidance. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia interest rate decision- Australia current account (Q1)- Japan household spending (April)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Philip Lowe's Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Reserve, Australian, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Australia, Japan
Biggest US banks could see 20% boost in capital requirements, Wall Street Journal reports. Midsize regional banks underwent extreme stress earlier this year, with First Republic and two others failing, yet the biggest banks in the US may be the ones hit with tougher regulatory rules. The proposals are expected as soon as this month and will vary based on the bank's businesses, according to the Journal. After the financial crisis of 2007-2008, regulators worldwide sought to bolster banks' capital requirements. And the recent turmoil in the US regional banks only underscored the current strength of the mega banks, suggesting that the focus on increasing capital at the biggest institutions was misplaced.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs –, Banks, Morgan Stanley, Jamie Dimon, Jane Fraser Organizations: Wall Street, Morning, First, Street Journal, Banks, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Basel III, Committee, America Locations: First Republic, Basel
Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz says a recession is hurtling toward the US economy. He pointed to stocks falling in lockstep with rising unemployment claims in 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1973, and 1969. Today, investors are again doing a poor job of forecasting rising unemployment claims in the months ahead, Kantrowitz believes. Underpinning Wilson's call is an earnings recession this year that investors aren't pricing in. "We first started talking about the coming earnings recession a year ago and received very strong pushback, just like today.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz doesn't, Piper Sandler, it's, Louis, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Venu Krishna, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Albert Edwards Organizations: Energy, Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BNP, Barclays, Conference, Board, National Federal, Independent, of Labor Statistics, Generale's Locations: lockstep
The exuberant mood looked set to continue in Europe, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.45%, German DAX futures up 0.49% and FTSE futures 0.18% higher. The Treasury Department had warned it would be unable to pay all its bills on June 5 if Congress failed to act. "The market's focus is shifting to the economic front and Fed's decision on rates now," said Tina Teng, markets analysts at CMC Markets. AMP's Oliver said the prevailing sentiment now is that there will be a pause in June and that's helped markets. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.42%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was 1% higher, continuing its hot run.
Persons: DAX, Shane Oliver, Tina Teng, Patrick Harker, Harker, AMP's Oliver, that's, there'll, Australia's, Sterling, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Senate, Representatives, Treasury Department, AMP, CMC Markets, Labor, Philadelphia Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Europe, Sydney, U.S, China, Shanghai
But Friday’s fresh jobs data is likely to inform policymakers as they try to decide whether this is the right moment to take a break. Central bankers lifted interest rates to a range of 5 to 5.25 percent as of last month, up sharply from near-zero at the start of 2022. Higher interest rates cool the economy by making it more expensive to borrow to buy a house or finance a car purchase, but they take time to have their full effect. As rates rise, businesses gradually pull back on expansion plans, slowing hiring, which then feeds into weaker wage growth and a slower economy overall. That is why policymakers are watching job market data to figure out how higher interest rates are working.
Persons: Organizations: Federal
Direct war spending, according to the report, is estimated to be about 3% of Russia's GDP, or about $67 billion a year. The US put about 50% of its GDP toward war near the same time. That makes it hard to justify spending a lofty percentage of GDP on what is not a war, in their view. All this isn't to say Russia's economy hasn't been hamstrung. Are you surprised by the relatively low fiscal cost of Russia's war?
Persons: Phil Rosen, Patrick Harker, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Metzel, Vladimir Putin's, hasn't, that's, Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs, it's, Realtor.com, Read, Jonathan Miller, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal Reserve, Philly Fed, Economist, Technology, American Locations: Manhattan, Washington, Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Soviet Union, India, Saudi Arabia, New York, London
Gold set for biggest weekly gain since April on Fed pause hopes
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were set on Friday for their biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as a softer dollar and hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign bolstered bullion's appeal. Bullion has gained 1.7% so far this week, heading for its best week since the week ended April 7. Gold, which does not yield any interest of its own, loses appeal when interest rates rise. A strong labor market print could see a bounce-back in the dollar, which would not help gold, Waterer added.
Persons: Bullion, Edward Meir, Patrick Harker, Joe Biden, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Aurum, Marex . Philadelphia Fed, U.S, U.S . Senate, U.S . Labor Department's, KCM
SINGAPORE, June 2 (Reuters) - Asian stocks surged on Friday as the progress on the bill to raise U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve might stand still on interest rates in its next meeting helped perk up investor appetite for risky assets. Harry Ottley, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the signs of slowing wage pressure has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will pause raising interest rates in two weeks. Comments from Fed officials also helped embolden Fed pause hopes, with Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker saying U.S. central bankers should not raise interest rates at their next meeting. In early Asian hours, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 0.6 basis points at 4.347%, having slipped around 5 basis points on Thursday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 0.2 basis points to 3.610%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 0.6 basis points to 3.829%.
Persons: Chuck Schumer, Harry Ottley, CBA's Ottley, embolden, Patrick Harker, Harker, Sterling, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Senate, Democratic, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal, Traders, U.S . House, Labor, Philadelphia Federal, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Washington, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Shanghai, U.S
Fed officials pointed toward a rate hike "skip" at its June 13-14 meeting, giving time for the central bank to assess the impact of its tightening cycle thus far against still-strong inflation data. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month in May as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates, but factories boosted employment to a nine-month high. "We have made clear that we still have ground to cover to bring interest rates to sufficiently restrictive levels," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike when the ECB meets on June 15. "There's a sort of narrowing interest rate differential ... when the ECB is expected to hike one or two more times and the Fed is more questionable about that."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Edward Moya, Patrick Harker, payrolls, Lagarde, John Velis, Hannah Lang, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Andrew Heavens, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, OANDA, Philadelphia Federal, ADP, Institute for Supply Management, ECB, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: OANDA . U.S, Washington, London, Singapore
Harker said he sees promising signs the Fed's rate hikes so far -- five full percentage points since March 2022 -- are having a cooling effect, particularly on housing prices. Uncertainty over inflation dynamics and the pace of credit tightening make him wary of continuing to raise rates. Harker said he expects the economy to grow less than 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate, now at 3.4%, to rise to around 4.4%. He said he could envision the Fed cutting rates if unemployment rises significantly faster, or inflation falls more rapidly, than he currently forecasts. "We don't have to keep moving rates up, and then have to reverse course quickly."
Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, Corp's, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon hints at future in politics
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Dimon has built a banking empire at JPMorgan Chase and his advice is sought by presidents, prime ministers and central bankers. Now that he’s conquered the business world, Dimon is signaling an openness to at least explore an eventual second act in politics. “I love what I do,” Dimon told Bloomberg, adding he’s “quite happy” in his current job. Since becoming CEO in 2005, Dimon has vaulted to the top of the business world. Dimon steered JPMorgan through the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and now the banking crisis.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, he’s, , ” Dimon, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, he’d, , Donald Trump, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, that’s, “ I’m, we’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Bloomberg Television, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Wall, Trump, Democrat, Republican, CNBC, Democratic, CNN’s, Republicans, Global China Summit Locations: New York, America, Shanghai, China
ECB’s crisis tool works best if it’s never used
  + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
BRUSSELS, May 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - In the euro zone bond market, unlimited backstops are the cheapest. The European Central Bank has been trumpeting its ability to buy member states’ debt if it comes under attack from investors. The danger here is that too much divergence would lead the euro zone to fracture, creating a powder keg for crisis. The central bank has been deliberately quiet about exactly when and how it might activate the crisis tool, except to say it will be ready if necessary. They have noted that the euro zone central bank has a new instrument to combat any sharp increase in the differential between yields of euro zone government bonds.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, , Lagarde, Fabio Panetta, hasn’t, there’s, Nils Redeker, Berlin’s Jacques Delors, Philip Lane, Francesco Guerrera, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Italy, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB won’t, Reuters Graphics, U.S . Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, , European Union, Twitter, Thomson Locations: BRUSSELS, Frankfurt, Italy, Spain, Greece, Lithuania, Silicon, EU, Ukraine
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