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Shares of Estee Lauder dropped about 3% mid-day Thursday but remain up around 10% for 2023. There is going to be some noise in the supply chain as Estee Lauder deals with its last quarter of pain related to Covid. Fragrance was up in every region, driven primarily by growth from Estee Lauder, Le Labo, and Tom Ford Beauty. In November, Estee Lauder announced it was buying the Tom Ford Brand for $2.8 billion. An Estee Lauder pop-up store is seen inside daimaru Department Store on Nanjing Road Pedestrian street in Shanghai, China, August 6, 2021.
WE HIT IT IN THE MORNING MEETINGAND TECH AND THE NASDAQ IS ONFIRE RIGHT NOW. THE STOCKS STARTED TO RALLY WHENHE SAID THAT DISINFLATIONARYPROCESS HAS BEGUN. AND WE ARE GOING TO BE PICKINGUP THE STOCKS AS THEY CONTINUETO GO OUT OF FAVOR, AND THENCATERPILLAR OF COURSE I TOUCHEDON. A LOT THAT ARE DOWN HEAVY TODAYAND OUT OF FAVOR, LOOK FOR US TOPOTENTIALLY PICK UP SOME OFTHESE. INTO THE WEAKNESS, I LIKE TO BUYTHE STOCKS OUT OF FAVOR, BECAUSEYOU GET SOME NICE MOVES WHENEVERYBODY RETURNS BACK TO THEM.
January's decline in house prices was the fourth drop in a row and twice the size expected in a Reuters poll of economists, adding to signs that the market is slowing rapidly. Interest rates have risen sharply since December 2021 and there was major disruption to the mortgage market in late September and October following former prime minister Liz Truss's "mini budget", which set market interest rates soaring. Nationwide forecast in December that house prices would fall 5% in 2023. House prices in January were 1.1% higher than a year earlier, Nationwide said, the smallest year-on-year increase since June 2020 and down from a 2.8% increase in December. British house prices soared by more than a quarter during the COVID-19 pandemic, boosted by ultra-low interest rates, tax incentives and broader demand for more living space during lockdown, which was seen in other Western countries too.
The reading marks the sixth monthly contraction in a row as the 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The Caixin survey centres on small firms and coastal regions, which includes a number of exporters. Economists said the faster-than-forecast "exit wave" of COVID-19 infections suggests that the worst of the economic slump has passed. According to the Caixin survey, the virus outbreak and subdued market conditions continued to weigh on customer demand and factory operations, with sub-indexes of both new orders and output contracting at a slower pace. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised China's growth outlook sharply higher for 2023, to 5.2% from 4.4% previously after "zero-COVID" lockdown policies in 2022 slashed China's growth rate to 3.0% - a pace below the global average for the first time in more than 40 years.
The overall rise is a reversal of a 15-year trend that has seen US stock indices, flush with fast-growing tech companies, consistently beat those across the Atlantic. Over the past decade, investors poured money into fast-growing tech stocks, aided by ultra-low interest rates. (SXXL)But tech companies have taken a beating recently. Tech companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet, announced thousands of layoffs last month. High interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow to expand their business, raising doubts about their future earnings.
Peloton spiked Wednesday after the company published earnings and its CEO teased a comeback. The company narrowed its net losses, but it's the eighth straight quarter it has failed to turn a profit. "This was by far our best quarterly performance in my twelve months with Peloton," CEO Barry McCarthy said. The stationary fitness equipment maker known for its stationary bike posted $792.7 million in revenue versus analysts' estimates of $710 million. Peloton was a favorite of the pandemic, as customers flocked to the company for its at-home fitness equipment while gyms remained closed during lockdown.
Retail sales fell 3.9% in December from November, after 11 months of consecutive gains, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed on Tuesday, suggesting that rate hikes so far are working as intended. "The large fall in December suggests that retail spending is slowing due to high cost-of-living pressures," said Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics. "With the impact of the 2022 rate hikes yet to be fully realised, we still expect two more hikes to be delivered in the first quarter." After the data, futures markets still priced in a hefty 85% chance the cash rate would be raised by a quarter-point next week to 3.35%. An analysis by UBS on Tuesday projects a sharp slowing in spending by those who hold "extra" cash savings to a well-below trend pace from mid-2023.
STRONG DEMANDIn its 2023 GDP forecasts, the IMF said it now expected U.S. GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October and following 2.0% growth in 2022. It said the euro zone had made similar gains, with 2023 growth for the bloc now forecast at 0.7%, versus 0.5% in the October outlook, following 3.5% growth in 2022. The IMF said Europe had adapted to higher energy costs more quickly than expected, and an easing of energy prices had helped the region. Gourinchas said together, the two Asian powerhouse economies will supply over 50% of global growth in 2023. Even with China's reopening, the IMF is predicting that oil prices will fall in both 2023 and 2024 due to lower global growth compared to 2022.
SEOUL, South Korea — Russia’s embassy in North Korea says the country has eased stringent epidemic controls in the capital, Pyongyang, that were placed during the past five days to slow the spread of respiratory illnesses. North Korean state media in recent weeks have stressed vigilance against a possible re-emergence of Covid-19. From May to August, North Korea reported about 4.8 million “fever cases” across its population of 26 million but identified only a fraction of them as Covid-19. North Korea has dubiously insisted that rival South Korea was responsible for its Covid-19 outbreak, saying that the virus was transported by anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets and other materials flown across the border by balloons launched by South Korean civilian activists. South Korea has dismissed such claims as unscientific and “ridiculous.”
Chinese pork demand is weak despite relaxation of the country's COVID policies as many people continue to avoid restaurants, said Jais Valeur, the head of Europe's biggest pork producer. "Right now I don't see any signs that Chinese imports are on the rise," Valeur told Reuters in an interview, adding that the Chinese market would probably normalize within six months. Slow Chinese demand has a knock-on effect on the European market. The outbreak of African swine fever in some European countries, including Germany, prompted producers in Spain to boost output aimed at the Chinese market. "All that meat is now flooding the European market, where consumers are now coping with inflation and are worried about the future," Valeur said.
"Flybe has now ceased trading and all flights from and to the UK operated by Flybe have been cancelled and will not be rescheduled," it said. A spokesperson for administrators Interpath Advisory said about 75,000 Flybe customers had future bookings that would now not be honoured. Headquartered in Birmingham, Flybe operated flights on 21 routes to 17 destinations across the UK and Europe using a fleet of eight leased Q400 turboprop aircraft. A spokesperson for Interpath said 45 members of Flybe's 321-strong workforce had been retained for the time being. Louise Haigh, the opposition Labour Party's transport spokesperson, said Flybe's collapse was "devastating news" for staff and customers.
According to official data, the number of COVID deaths a showed weekly decline, however. China abandoned its strict "zero COVID" policy in early December after protests against the restrictions, allowing people to travel and the virus to spread rapidly throughout the country. An estimated 226 million domestic trips were made by all means including flights during the holiday week, state broadcaster CCTV reported, citing government figures. This compares to around 130 million domestic trips during the holiday week last year, according to the transport ministry, but is still far below pre-pandemic levels: In the last Lunar New Year holiday before the novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, some 420 million trips were made. During the Lunar New Year holiday in 2019, 12.53 million cross-border trips were made, the Xinhua news agency reported.
Gooding decided to move to New York, so he married David. They applied for a K-1 visa. I fell in love with him and New York City. We submitted our K-1 visa application the day before the city's COVID-19 lockdown hit. First, the US fiancé applies for the K-1 visa on their international partner's behalf.
PARIS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - France has extended mandatory COVID tests for travellers from China until Feb. 15, a government decree published on Saturday showed. While Chinese officials have said infections have peaked, some global experts have warned about the possibility of a rise in cases in rural areas less equipped to deal with them as millions of Chinese travel for family reunions during the Lunar New Year holiday. On Dec. 30, France announced it would require travellers from China to provide a negative COVID-19 test result less than 48 hours before departure as China eased lockdown rules. The measure, which had been set to last until Jan. 31, imposed tests on all flights from China - including flights with stopovers - and required travellers on airplanes arriving from China to wear masks. China abandoned its strict "zero COVID" policy in early December after protests against the restrictions, allowing people to travel and the virus to spread rapidly throughout the country.
UK's Flybe enters administration, cancels all flights
  + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Jan 28 (Reuters) - British airline Flybe entered administration for the second time and has cancelled all scheduled flights to and from the UK, the regional carrier said on Saturday. With Britain in lockdown during the pandemic, Flybe was among the first airlines to go into administration in 2020, putting around 2,400 jobs at risk at that time. The High Court has appointed David Pike and Mike Pink as joint administrators of Flybe, it said. Flybe, which was once the largest independent regional airline in Europe, operated between 81 airports, was sold to Thyme Opco, a firm controlled by Cyrus Capital, in 2021. Reporting by Mrinmay Dey and Akriti Sharma in Bengaluru; editing by William Mallard and Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Mike Edwards believes that markets haven't fully priced in the upside from China's reopening. In the long run, Edwards said that China can maintain its global presence even without the US. The end of China's zero-COVID policy and the country's subsequent economic reopening has undoubtedly been one of the biggest tailwinds for markets so far this year. But while investors have welcomed this news with open arms, Mike Edwards — deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers — doesn't believe that they've realized yet just how much upside the reopening of the Chinese economy could bring the stock market. Europe's outperformance over the US so far this year can, in part, be attributed to its significantly larger exposure to the Chinese economy.
REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer/Illustration//File PhotoJan 26 (Reuters) - Visa Inc's (V.N) revenue growth continued to wind back to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter as the post-lockdown travel craze ebbed and consumer spending slowed in a tough economy. The growth was, however, far lower than a 40% surge in cross-border volumes in the first quarter of 2021 and a 20% jump in payments volumes. The firm's exit from Russia will impact reported payments volume growth rates in the second quarter, Prabhu said on a post-earnings call. Earlier in the day, rival Mastercard Inc (MA.N) forecast current-quarter revenue growth below expectations as pent-up demand for travel was seen slowing going forward. Visa reported a profit of $2.18 a share, comfortably above the $2.01 estimated by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
European stock funds drew in $3.4 billion last week, the largest inflow since early 2022. Investors want exposure to the euro area as it looks increasingly likely it will avoid a recession. Investors poured in $3.4 billion into European equity funds over the past week, Bank of America said in its Flow Show note published Friday. But demand has been weaker than anticipated, leading to a roughly 70% crash from highs for natural gas prices. EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said this week there's "a chance to avoid a deep recession," for the bloc.
China's net refined copper imports and year-on-year changeBOOMING IMPORTSThe strength of last year's imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group. But it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China. But China's imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022. China's net imports of refined copper were running below year-earlier levels through May but steadily accelerated over the second part of the year. Goldman suggests that a sign of restocking by China's copper sector would be net refined imports being consistently higher than 280,000 tonnes per month.
The Threads That Bind Us
  + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Peggy Orenstein | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
I wondered if the commentator knew its origin: coloring sheep fleece rather than spun thread to reduce fading. The princess in “Sleeping Beauty” pricks her finger (on a spindle, on flax, on a wool comb) in the Middle East, South America and across Europe. Perhaps inspired by the molasses months of lockdown when so many found comfort in needlework, a trendlet of books has emerged celebrating the fiber arts. She drags him to an embroidery class at the local library that seems, at first, beyond his abilities. The needle that looks like a “tiger’s tooth” bites his finger, then bites it again.
Since the pandemic, Diageo has benefited from people splurging on more expensive types of alcohol while staying home under lockdown. But Diageo's North America business, which accounts for nearly 30% of overall sales, reported organic sales growth of 3% in the six months ended Dec. 31 versus analyst estimates of over 6%. The company said it expected North American organic net sales growth to "continue to normalise through the second half of fiscal '23, compared to the double-digit growth in the prior period". OCCASIONAL TREATSStill, overall organic net sales rose 9.4% in the six months to Dec. 31, beating analyst forecasts for a 7.9% rise. Diageo's "premium-plus" brands - which are more expensive than brands such as Smirnoff vodka but under about 50 pounds ($61.92), drove 65% of its organic net sales growth, the company said.
The outlook and disappointing North American sales in the first-half overshadowed forecast-beating first-half sales thanks to price hikes and as more people drank premium spirits. But Diageo's North America business, which accounts for nearly 30% of overall sales, reported organic sales growth of 3% in the six months ended Dec. 31 versus analyst estimates of over 6%. The company said it expected North American organic net sales growth to "continue to normalise through the second half of fiscal '23, compared to the double-digit growth in the prior period". Still, overall organic net sales rose 9.4% in the six months to Dec. 31, beating analyst forecasts for a 7.9% rise. Diageo's "premium-plus" brands - which are more expensive than brands such as Smirnoff vodka but under about 50 pounds ($61.92), drove 65% of its organic net sales growth, the company said.
[1/2] Bottles of Johnnie Walker whisky, a brand of Diageo, are seen for sale in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew KellyLONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Diageo (DGE.L), the world's largest spirits maker, beat first-half sales forecasts on Thursday as it raised prices and more people drank premium spirits. The London-based company, which makes Tanqueray gin, Captain Morgan's rum and Ketel One vodka, said organic net sales rose 9.4% in the six months to December 31, beating analyst forecasts for a 7.9% rise. The growth reflected organic volume growth of 1.8%, indicting 7.6 percentage points of higher price growth. Diageo's "premium-plus" brands - which are more expensive than brands such as Smirnoff vodka but under about 50 pounds ($61.92), drove 65% of its organic net sales growth, the company said.
SEOUL, South Korea — Authorities in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, have ordered a five-day lockdown due to rising cases of an unspecified respiratory illness, the Russian Embassy and Seoul-based NK News reported on Wednesday, citing a government notice. On Tuesday, the website reported that Pyongyang residents appeared to be stocking up on goods in anticipation of stricter measures. North Korea acknowledged its first Covid-19 outbreak last year, but by August had declared victory over the virus. Instead, Pyongyang reported daily numbers of patients with fever, a tally that rose to some 4.77 million, out of a population of about 25 million. On Tuesday, state news agency KCNA said the city of Kaesong, near the border with South Korea, had intensified public communication campaigns “so that all the working people observe anti-epidemic regulations voluntarily in their work and life.”
SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - China's reopened borders and renewed focus on boosting the sagging economy have brightened the deals outlook, with bankers starting to field interest for mergers, acquisitions and fundraising involving the world's second-largest economy. Chinese companies' capital markets deals slipped 44% in the same period, according to Refinitiv data. That slump crimped the fees earned by Wall Street banks and forced some of them to cut jobs, mainly those linked to Chinese deals, in the past few months. Chinese private equity activity was worth $24.1 billion in 2022, down from $57.8 billion a year before, Pitchbook data showed. "Because of opening up, we expect an uptick in overseas disposal of private equity to Chinese buyers."
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