Over the past month, the S & P 500 has climbed 3.2% to break above 5,800 for the first time.
"Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S & P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," he wrote in a note to clients.
"S & P 500 over-valuation has been supported by (and fully reflects) the Fed likely cutting the real funds rate," he added.
This summer, he said he expected the S & P 500 to fall to 5,000 by the fourth quarter.
While not included in CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , that forecast would mark Stifel as the second lowest among those surveyed.
Persons:
Barry Bannister, Stifel, manias, Bannister
Organizations:
Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Citi, Cisco Systems