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European shares rise as US data soothes economic slowdown fears
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
June 28 (Reuters) - European shares climbed on Wednesday after robust U.S. data soothed concerns about a steep economic slowdown, while investors awaited commentary from central bankers at a forum later in the day for further policy direction. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up 0.5% by 0810 GMT, tracking Wall Street's gains overnight after data showed a rise in new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods and heightened consumer confidence in June. Investors are keenly watching a panel discussion of central bankers in Sintra, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. French supermarket chain Carrefour (CARR.PA) gained 3.1% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an "overweight" rating. Reporting by Matteo Allievi in Gdansk and Amruta Khandekar in Bangalore; Editing by Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, Morgan Stanley, Matteo Allievi, Subhranshu Sahu Organizations: Roche, Investors, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Carrefour, Thomson Locations: Sintra, Gdansk, Amruta, Bangalore
Asia shares hesitant, yen slide stokes intervention risk
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Markets imply a 90% probability of a rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. The euro responded by climbing to $1.0957, while surging on the low-yielding yen to a 15-year peak of 157.97. The dollar rose to a near eight-month peak of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.87 as Japanese officials again protested the weakness in the yen. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy. “So we now see a higher risk Japanese authorities will step into the market to prop up the JPY.”In commodities, gold steadied at $1,915 an ounce, after finding support at the recent three-month low of $1,909.99.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , Goldman Sachs, , Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Japan’s Nikkei, Nasdaq, Wall, Washington, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Europe
Asia shares subdued, yen shunned as euro shines
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
“The data indicated a firmer pace of residential, inventory, and equipment investment in the second quarter,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro at $1.0950, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.97 yen. The dollar had hit a near eight-month top of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.96 as Japanese officials again protested against the yen’s weakness. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , Advantest, Goldman Sachs, , Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Wall, Journal, Nvidia, Nikkei, Chip, Tokyo, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Washington, China, Europe
“Maybe we’ll see some successes on inflation here and there, but it just won’t be enough,” said Rossiter. European inflation and rate hike hints from the Portugal meeting were also a focus for Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Advisors. “Recession probability models in the U.S. project a 55-70% to 65-70% probability we’ll get a recession in the next 12 months. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro against the dollar at $1.095, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.98 yen.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kim Kyung, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , James Rossiter, Rossiter, Martins Kazaks, Tim Graf, they’re, we’ve, it’s, Graf, Masato Kanda, Brent Organizations: Federal, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nvidia, Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department, Treasury, European Central Bank, TD Securities, ECB, Street Global Advisors, U.S . Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, Portugal, , Europe, London, U.S
Morning Bid: G4 central bankers speak, chips wars rumble
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The picture was complicated further overnight as Tuesday's macro-driven rally in Wall St stocks was sideswiped by renewed Sino-U.S. trade tensions. AI darling Nvidia recoiled 4% (NVDA.O) in out-of-hours trade after reports Washington is considering new curbs on chip exports to China. But Wednesday's trading may well be dominated by news from a power panel at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal. In currency markets, the dollar (.DXY) was firmer - especially against China's yuan , which hit a new low for the year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan Eyeing, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Andrew Bailey, disinflation, Joe Biden, Wall, General Mills, Mike Dolan, John Stonestreet Organizations: Nvidia, Central, Federal, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Wall St, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, Treasury, Micron Technology, General, General Mills New, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Wall St, Washington, China, Portugal, Australia, Canada, Chicago, Shanghai
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talked tough on inflation Wednesday, saying at a forum that he expects multiple interest rate increases ahead and possibly at an aggressive pace. "We believe there's more restriction coming," Powell said during a monetary policy session in Sintra, Portugal. Assuming a quarter point per meeting, that would mean two more hikes. Most economists think the rate increases ultimately will pull the U.S. into at least a shallow recession. "Bank credit availability and credit can move down a little bit with a bit of a lag.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Andrew Bailey, wouldn't, that'll Organizations: European Central Bank . Markets, Dow Jones, Valley Bank, Bank, " Bank of Japan, Bank of England Locations: Sintra , Portugal, The
[1/2] The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out further hikes at consecutive Fed meetings while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde confirmed expectations the bank will raise rates in July, saying such a move was "likely". "Policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough," Powell told an annual gathering of central bankers hosted by the ECB in the Portuguese mountain resort of Sintra. "We are not seeing enough tangible evidence of the fact that underlying inflation, particularly domestic prices, are stabilising and moving down." While headline inflation was above 3%, the BOJ was keeping monetary policy easy because underlying inflation remained below its 2% target, Ueda said.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, . Federal, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, SINTRA, Portugal, Sintra
Central bankers from the world’s leading economies said on Wednesday that while they had raised interest rates significantly, additional increases would very likely be needed to wrestle inflation back under control given the strength of labor markets. “Although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough, and it has not been restrictive for long enough,” Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said. Speaking at the 10th annual conference of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, Mr. Powell said that the strong labor market “was pulling the economy” and was a key reason that Fed officials projected two additional rate increases this year. As U.S. workers get promotions and earn higher wages, it’s helping to shore up demand, which is allowing the economy to grow and giving companies the continued ability to raise prices.
Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, U.S Locations: Sintra , Portugal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorld's central bankers will not forsake 2% inflation target, Former Dallas Fed President FisherRichard Fisher, former Dallas Fed President and Barclays senior advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much of Powell's tone is insurance, whether Brexit's a function of the inflation problem in the UK, and more.
Persons: Fisher Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Barclays
Prices for luxury watch brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe have fallen near two-year lows on secondary markets. Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index has dropped about 19% in the last 12 months. Bloomberg's Subdial Watch Index, which tracks the 50 most-traded pre-owned watches, has fallen roughly 19% over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the Patek Philippe Nautilus Travel Time has fallen 28%, and the Rolex Daytona 116506 has dropped 25%. President Joe Biden reiterated this week that he doesn't anticipate a recession, but Wall Street firms aren't so sure.
Persons: Patek Philippe, , Philippe, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Michael Gapen Organizations: Rolex, Service, Bloomberg, Philippe Nautilus, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Bank, America's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJerome Powell: Strong majority in Fed committee wanted two or more rate hikesTop central bankers from the world's largest economies sit down with CNBC's Sara Eisen at the 2023 ECB Forum for Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.
Persons: Jerome Powell, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: Central Banking Locations: Sintra , Portugal
And while Biden’s growing list of Republican challengers differ on many issues, when it comes to the economy, they’re in agreement that Biden failed. In addition, a tight labor market has left many small businesses with ongoing hiring difficulties. Here’s what Biden can take credit for – and what he can’t. In other aspects, the labor market certainly had a boost from Biden’s fiscal policies. Since then, the American workforce has consistently outpaced the pre-pandemic workforce.
Persons: Joe Biden, , ” Biden, Biden, Jerome Powell, , Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, It’s, it’s, let’s, That’s Organizations: DC CNN, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, , Congress, American, Manufacturers, Treasury Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Republicans, Fed, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Biden, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Washington, Chicago, American, United States, Ukraine, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Fed Chair Powell: Not ruling out back-to-back rate hikes
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doubled down Wednesday on the hawkish view that the central bank isn’t done tamping down inflation, and could even implement consecutive rate hikes at its upcoming monetary policy meetings. An often-cited paper by former Fed chair Ben Bernanke argued that the labor market has had a minor, but persistent, impact on inflation that can only be remedied by the economy slowing further. That makes a case for more rate hikes. The labor market has held remarkably steady in recent months, routinely bucking expectations. Employers added a robust 339,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 3.7% that month.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, haven’t, Powell, Ben Bernanke Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, European Central Bank Locations: Washington, Sintra , Portugal
It ended Monday's session down by 0.1%, in what was its sixth straight negative session. European markets opened higher this Tuesday morning as investors monitored comments from central bankers at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Premier Li Qiang said during a speech that Beijing would be putting forward more effective policies to expand domestic demand and open markets. Meanwhile, U.S. futures also pointed to higher open ahead of homes sales, durable goods and consumer confidence data. It comes after U.S. stocks ended Monday's session in the red, with the Dow , S&P 500 and Nasdaq — the three major indices — all down.
Persons: bourses, Premier Li Qiang, Tesla Organizations: ECB, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia Locations: Sintra ., Asia, China, Premier, Beijing
Morning Bid: China supports, peak rate haze
  + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
It made its displeasure at further yuan weakness clear on Tuesday, lifting official daily targets while state banks sold dollars. Even though investors seemed to bat away the bizarre weekend events in Russia, the murky Western interest rate picture continues to hamper European and U.S. stocks. Central bankers meeting at an annual European Central Bank forum in Portugal dissuaded markets from betting on a peak in the interest rate cycle just yet. While those comments are likely more directed at European policymakers, where disinflation is lagging, markets also still expect the Fed to push ahead with at least one more interest rate rise next month. The hawkish rate picture didn't deter demand for two-year Treasury notes at Monday's auction, however, and 2-year yields slipped below 4.70% on Tuesday.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Li Qiang, Hong Kong's, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Gita Gopinath, Morgan Stanley, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal, Economic, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Conference, University of Michigan's, Dallas Federal, Richmond Fed, Central Bank, Treasury, Walgreens, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Russia, Portugal, Sintra
Hong Kong observation wheel, and the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank, HSBC building, Victoria harbor, Hong Kong, China. Ucg | Universal Images Group | Getty ImagesThe U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a "year of contraction and a European recession in 2024," according to HSBC Asset Management. "The coming recession scenario will be more like the early 1990s recession, with our central scenario being a 1-2% drawdown in GDP," Little added. HSBC expects the recession in Western economies to result in a "difficult, choppy outlook for markets" for two reasons. HSBC remains overweight on Chinese stocks for this reason, and Little said the "diversification of Chinese equities shouldn't be underestimated."
Persons: Joseph Little, Little, HSBC's Little Organizations: Shanghai Bank, HSBC, Ucg, Getty, HSBC Asset Management, Global, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Fed Locations: Hong, Hong Kong, Victoria, China, Europe, India
The nature of the inflation problem in the eurozone is changing, and interest rates will need to be higher for longer than policymakers and investors once estimated, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday. While the shocks that pushed the region’s inflation rate above 10 percent late last year, such as supply chain bottlenecks during the pandemic and the surge in energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have started to wane, their impact is still passing through the economy. That’s making inflation more persistent, Ms. Lagarde said at the central bank’s 10th annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. The slower decline in inflation “is caused by the fact that inflation is working its way through the economy in phases, as different economic agents try to pass the costs on to each other,” Ms. Lagarde said. Companies have passed on costs to customers, and now workers are trying to catch up from lost wages caused by high prices.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Ms, Jerome H, Powell, Andrew Bailey Organizations: European Central Bank, Companies, Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: Ukraine, Sintra , Portugal, Europe, Canada, South Africa, Sintra
U.S. stock futures and bond yields edged higher ahead of a relatively busy day of data that will be scrutinized for signals about the health of the economy. However, Lordstown Motors stock tumbled more than 60% premarket after the electric-truck startup filed for bankruptcy and sued its investment partner Foxconn Technology. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank would likely raise rates in July , and was committed to returning inflation to 2% “come what may.”U.S. stock futures gained. Futures tied to the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 rose 0.4%, while those linked to the S&P 500 gained 0.2%. Bond yields rose.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dow industrials, Brent, Hang Seng Organizations: Nasdaq, Lordstown Motors, Foxconn Technology, Central, Futures, Treasury, Nikkei Locations: Russia, Europe, Asia, Hong, Shanghai
"The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon
What Is Happening in the Housing Market?
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Mortgage rates are now hovering around 7 percent — the highest they’ve been since 2007 — thanks to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation. Mr. Martinez, a tech worker, expected that to cool down Miami real estate. He has made seven or eight offers and is willing to put 25 percent down, but he keeps losing, often to people paying cash instead of taking out a pricey mortgage. The Fed’s rate increases are aimed at slowing America’s economy — in part by restraining the housing market — to try to bring inflation under control. Those moves worked quickly at first to weaken interest-sensitive parts of the economy: Housing markets across the United States pulled back notably last year.
Persons: Gianni Martinez, Martinez, Mr, Locations: Miami, United States
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures, Ruble Edge Lower
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Stock futures and bond yields are edging lower as global investors brush off this weekend’s events in Russia . Global central bankers will be meeting in Portugal this week for the European Central Bank’s annual forum. Stocks came under pressure last week as policymakers including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that their policy-tightening cycles weren’t yet finished. Stock futures slipped. The benchmark MOEX stock index was down 1.4%.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Dow, Brent Organizations: Global, Central, Nasdaq, Treasury, U.S, Benchmark, Locations: Russia, Portugal, Europe, Asia, Hong, Shanghai
The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called for more interest rate hikes in its 2023 annual report, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Aaron Chown - Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesThe world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. If interest rates get to mid-1990s levels the overall debt service burden for top economies would, all else being equal, be the highest in history, Borio said. Banking crisesThe Swiss-based BIS held its annual meeting in recent days, where top central bankers discussed the turbulent last few months. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
Persons: Aaron Chown, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon
Even though inflation is slowing in many countries after more than a year of interest rate hikes, it remains above the 2% level many central banks are targeting. Raising interest rates is the primary tool central bankers have at their disposal to get inflation down. That’s why the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes at its June meeting after 10 consecutive hikes since last March. It’s harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high. That’s because research shows that inflation, if unaddressed, could become even more sticky and harder for central banks to control with rate hikes.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, don’t, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, it’s, Michael Bordo, , Organizations: New, New York CNN, ” Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Center for Monetary, Rutgers University, CNN Locations: New York
Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". "Very high debt levels, a remarkable global inflation surge, and the strong pandemic-era increase in house prices check all these boxes," the BIS said. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon
Take Five: The only way is up
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
June 23 (Reuters) - It's been a turbulent week or two for markets, with one central bank after another making it very clear the only way for rates right now is up as inflation tightens its grip on the global economy. Bad news could be taken as a positive, if traders see it as a way of pushing authorities to offer more support to the economy - as long as it eventually arrives. Make your way to the foothills of Portugal's Sintra mountains from Monday through Wednesday. The agenda is, of course, inflation, inflation, inflation. Many expect initial attempts to talk the currency higher - "jawboning", in central bank jargon - before considering whether direct intervention is needed.
Persons: It's, Yoruk, Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper, it's, Big Tech's, CHRISTINE, Christine Lagarde, Yannis Stournaras, Jan Harvey Organizations: Investors, Federal, Credit Suisse, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Traders, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Portugal, Rae Wee, Singapore, Amsterdam, New York, London, U.S, Beijing, China, Portugal's Sintra, SWEDEN, Swedish
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