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☆ Dollar in defensive mood after jobs data; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in Chicago on October 18, 2022. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, eased 0.029% to 101.820 after sliding 0.245% on Tuesday. "If the difference in rates between the two regions become clearer, DXY (dollar index) may fall below the 100 mark." The kiwi rose 0.35% versus the greenback to $0.623, while sterling was last trading at $1.2479, up 0.12% on the day. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% to 136.40 per dollar, clawing back some of its losses from last week when the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy.

☆ Fed Chair Powell calls JPMorgan acquisition of First Republic an 'exception'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell calls JPMorgan acquisition of First Republic an 'exception'Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers questions from reporters after the central bank announced it was raising interest rates another 25 basis points.

If the Fed opts to pause, Treasury yields are expected to decline. Stocks that could gain on falling interest rates Here are the top stocks that are poised to move higher if the Fed signals it will pause rate increases. The gold miner benefits from a rise in gold prices, and in general, gold tends to rise when interest rates fall. Meanwhile, genetics company Illumina should gain if interest rates fall, according to its correlation to the SHY ETF. Stocks poised to gain on rate increases However, if the Fed suggests rate hikes will continue, short-term Treasury yields will likely go up, benefiting these stocks.

Banks in focus as the Fed weighs its rates moveIf market predictions are correct, the Fed on Wednesday will raise borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point, even as growing turmoil in the stocks of regional banks threatens to choke off credit to businesses and consumers, pushing the economy into recession. The decision comes amid a brutal sell-off in regional banks’ shares, which has wiped billions off smaller lenders’ market valuations. Regulators had hoped that the sale of the embattled First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase this week would contain the panic. But short sellers, investors who profit off bets that stock prices will fall, have continued to take aim at regional lenders like PacWest, Western Alliance and Zions Bancorp. (Shares in PacWest and Western Alliance are down again in premarket trading.)

☆ Morning Bid: Bank reverb frames Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While there was some minor repricing of Fed probabilities in the futures market, the latest bout of bank stock nerves is unlikely to change the Fed's course on its own. A White House economist on Tuesday said Fed rate hikes were having a negative impact on the banking sector. Signs of some loosening of a very tight labor market may also encourage the Fed that its rate hiking job is done after this week. Private sector job readings for April are due later today along with service sector surveys for the month. With the Fed in view alongside the debt ceiling crunch and bank stock retreat, longer-term Treasury bonds rallied.

☆ PacWest explores strategic options amid stock price plunge -source
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Anirban Sen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Los Angeles-based lender said in its first-quarter earnings last week that its deposits had stabilized after some customers pulled their money, but investors have continued to sell the bank's shares amid concerns about its future. PacWest shares dropped 58% on the news on Wednesday to $2.88 a share. The stock has lost almost 90% of its value since the regional banking crisis started on March 8. The crisis has led to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation taking over regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank and selling them in whole or parts to other banks. Shares of other regional banks also fell after First Republic Bank collapsed last weekend and was sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N).

☆ After First Republic's rescue, economists predict further pain with a 'new era' of higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Leah Millis | ReutersAfter the rescue of First Republic Bank by JPMorgan Chase over the weekend, leading economists predict a prolonged period of higher interest rates will expose further frailties in the banking sector, potentially compromising the capacity of central banks to rein in inflation. Almost 80% of chief economists surveyed said central banks face "a trade-off between managing inflation and maintaining financial sector stability," while a similar proportion expects central banks to struggle to reach their inflation targets. Yet several leading economists told a panel at the World Economic Forum Growth Summit in Geneva on Tuesday that higher inflation and greater financial instability are here to stay. That means inflation, the impulse of inflation will be higher." She added that it "defies logic" that as the industry tries to pivot rapidly to a higher interest rate environment, there won't be further casualties beyond SVB, Signature, Credit Suisse and First Republic.

☆ The Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates for the 10th time in a row. It could be the last.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it is raising interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated he wants to see wage growth cool off before considering a pause on interest rate hikes. Still, while the Fed didn't see the necessary data to pause interest rate hikes this time around, there's a possibility it could happen in June. "How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy and the extent of tightening credit conditions."

☆ Stocks slide into Fed mode, shorts stalk banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight, tumbling regional bank stocks (.KRX) dragged the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 1.2% and oil dived more than 5% on fears that shaky bank confidence and signs of weakness in the U.S. job market were harbingers of a looming broader slowdown. Bonds rallied as investors reckoned the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later on Wednesday, will soon be switching from rate hikes to cuts. Among banks, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), down 27.8%, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), down 15.1%, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) down 12.4%, were the biggest losers. If that happens, focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Australian dollar has given back some of the ground gained on Tuesday, following a surprise rate hike from the central bank, and sat at $0.6670.

☆ Premarket stocks: What happens above 5%? The Fed's big risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, job openings that month tumbled to their lowest level since May 2021, according to data released Tuesday. The shifting landscape paved the way for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March and First Republic Bank this week. By blessing JPMorgan’s takeover of First Republic Bank, the Democratic US senator fears federal regulators just made the “too big to fail” problem even worse. To the relief of investors and bank customers, the JPMorgan deal protects all of First Republic’s depositors. The decision to invest in food and grocery delivery during the pandemic has become a big advantage for Uber.

☆ JPMorgan could be the banking sector’s biggest hero — or biggest risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

And as the bank swells in size, so does the potential risk it poses to the nation’s financial system. Some experts say they’re concerned that JPMorgan’s continued intervention during times of crisis has broader implications for the banking sector, the US financial system and its regulation. And with every failed bank that JPMorgan snaps up, the conundrum becomes clearer: JPMorgan is essentially the biggest risk to the financial system — and every time it expands to uphold the sector’s stability, so does its risk to the financial system. It has “that ability once again, to signal to the world that JPMorgan is a fortress, JPMorgan is the ultimate. But recent failures and the missteps that led to them indicate that deep flaws underline the financial system.

☆ Wolfe double-upgrades this regional bank stock that's an 'attractive place to hide'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Prosperity Bancshares is a safe pick in a sector that's been recently defined by risk, according to Wolfe Research. Analyst Bill Carcache double-upgraded the regional bank stock to outperform from underperform, saying the bank has "relative safety on high ground" amid sector turmoil that was initially ignited by the closure of Silicon Valley Bank in March and reignited by the auction won by JPMorgan for First Republic Bank this week. His new target implies the stock could rally 15% from Tuesday's close. That's of increasing importance as industry insiders expect more stringent regulations following the recent bank failures, he said. He said that the bank has historically had fewer write-offs than regional peers.

☆ 'Self-fulfilling prophecy is a risk' in regional bank crisis, Evercore ISI says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Regional bank stocks have fallen sharply this week after the failure and sale of First Republic, with the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) tumbling 8.9% in just two days, on Monday and Tuesday. KRE 5D mountain Regional bank stocks have fallen after First Republic's failure. But even if the immediate concerns have been put to rest, now the falling bank stocks could create a new round of issues, according to Evercore ISI. ... regional banks' troubles are earnings issues for most, rather than liquidity issues," Pancari said. He added that "select regionals appear oversold," highlighting Fifth Third Bancorp as one of Evercore ISI's favorite mid-sized banks.

Investors anticipate the U.S. central bank will follow through with a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the end of its latest two-day policy meeting. The policy statement is due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak to reporters half an hour later. But the new statement, and Powell's elaboration on it, will have to reconcile a set of risks that have grown more into conflict. Between that consensus and other problems that have intensified in the meantime, the Fed is likely to at least open the door to the prospect that this hike will be the last of the current tightening cycle, absent a future inflation surprise. Doing otherwise might hint that those projections had changed, a hawkish tilt towards more rate hikes that the Fed won't want to close off but also won't want to guarantee.

☆ S&P cuts First Republic's credit rating, says default a 'virtual certainty'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 2 (Reuters) - S&P Global on Tuesday slashed First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) credit rating deeper into junk territory after California banking regulators seized the U.S. lender and sold its assets. S&P cut its rating to 'CC' from 'B+' and said it expects default to be a "virtual certainty". Since JPMorgan assumed the substantial majority of First Republic's assets, it is most likely that the lender would default on any other senior financial obligations given what would be an insufficient remaining asset base, S&P said. S&P also lowered credit ratings on First Republic's subordinated debt and preferred stock to 'D' from 'B-.' Reporting by Jyoti Narayan in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Regional Bank Stocks Plunge Ahead of Fed Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Gina Heeb | Rachel Louise Ensign | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Illustration: Preston JesseeShares of a number of midsize lenders fell sharply Tuesday following the collapse of First Republic Bank, a sign that investors are still worried about the industry’s health in a world of higher interest rates. Banks that took a hit following the March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank fell the most. Los Angeles-based PacWest was down 25% in midday trading, while Phoenix-based Western Alliance fell 19%. Metropolitan Bank , based in New York, declined 20%.

☆ JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Rides to Biden’s Rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Highlights from a Fox Business interview with Jamie Dimon, in which the J.P. Morgan CEO discussed issues surrounding his WSJ op-ed, 'The West Needs America's Leadership.' Image: Zuma Press Composite: Mark KellyJamie Dimon must be smiling at the political irony. The Biden Administration, which claims to hate big banks, signed off Monday on a deal to let Mr. Dimon’s giant JPMorgan Chase get bigger and even more profitable by taking over failing First Republic Bank . JPMorgan won the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. auction for the San Francisco-based bank, which was seized by regulators early Monday. It appears the FDIC and Treasury overcame their opposition to a merger by one of the country’s biggest banks after their costly ideological indulgence in closing Silicon Valley Bank ( SVB ).

☆ First Republic Seized and Sold: Why It Happened and What Comes Next
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Wall Street Journal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Hollywood Writers Strike: What It Could Mean for Your Favorite Shows The union representing movie and television writers said Monday they are going on strike, after talks with major networks, streamers and studios ended without a deal. WSJ’s Joe Flint explains what’s at stake. Photo: J. David Ake/Associated Press

☆ Hollywood Writers Strike: What It Could Mean for Your Favorite Shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Wall Street Journal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

First Republic Seized and Sold: Why It Happened and What Comes Next The FDIC seized First Republic Bank early Monday and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase. WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston Jessee

☆ JPMorgan Eyes the True Prize in First Republic Deal: Wealthy Customers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Aaron Back | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

JPMorgan Chase bought First Republic Bank early Monday after the FDIC took over the troubled lender. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty ImagesJPMorgan Chase executives haven’t been too subtle about what they like about First Republic: its wealth-management business. There is good reason for that. With the fallen bank’s elite coastal clientele, JPMorgan has a chance to take its business managing money for the wealthy to another level, using its broad bank platform to capitalize on the opportunity in a way that First Republic simply couldn’t.

☆ How Washington Got on Board With a Big-Bank Deal for First Republic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Ben Eisen | Andrew Ackerman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

WSJ’s Ben Eisen explains what led to the bank’s failure and what it means for customers, investors and the industry. Illustration: Preston JesseeFederal regulators wanted a strong deal for First Republic Bank. As a result, they helped America’s largest lender get even bigger. JPMorgan Chase beat out bids from at least three smaller peers, according to people familiar with the matter. The bank said it had some 800 people working over the weekend to scour First Republic’s books and assess its business.

However, with inflation running well over the central bank's 2% target and a still-strong labor market, chances of rate cuts seem less likely. With Monday's manufacturing data giving the Fed enough room for more near-term tightening, all eyes will be on jobs and factory orders data after the opening bell. ET, Dow e-minis were down 79 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 6 points, or 0.05%. Educational services company Chegg (CHGG.N) tanked 45.6% on a downbeat second-quarter revenue forecast on increasing competition from ChatGPT. Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP.O) dropped 11% after U.S. short seller Hindenburg Research said it has a short position in activist investor Carl Icahn-controlled energy-to-pharma conglomerate.

☆ Stocks ease; Aussie dollar soars after surprise hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"No one is going to want to do too much before we get to that FOMC decision. "One of the things that sticks out to me is that they're still saying they might need to increase interest rates," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "So as well as the increase today, that's supporting the Aussie dollar," he said. The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies , while the euro eased 0.1% to $1.097. But markets are still anxious about what may be the next crisis, even if the initial response has been positive.

HSBC posted a pretax profit of $12.9 billion for the quarter ended March, versus $4.2 billion a year earlier. HSBC said the planned $10 billion sale, originally slated to be completed by the end of this year, will now only likely go through in the first quarter of 2024. HSBC reported deposits fell 0.6% to $1.6 trillion, excluding those it acquired by bailing out the UK arm of failed U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank and the reclassification of French retail deposits. Despite the surging profit, HSBC did not raise its key performance target of a return on tangible equity of at least 12% from this year onwards, which analysts were anticipating. Reporting by Selena Li ing Kong Kong and Lawrence White in London; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The resumption of bilateral financial discussions comes ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's planned visit to South Korea on Sunday and Monday for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. Japan and South Korea will resume regular finance dialogue, likely to be held annually, at "an appropriate timing," Suzuki told reporters after the bilateral meeting. Washington has pressed both countries to resolve these disputes to better counter rising threats from China and North Korea and other regional challenges. Under Yoon, South Korea has resumed trilateral military drills and agreed to more intelligence sharing on issues like tracking ballistic missile launches from North Korea. China's finance minister and central bank head were not present at a trilateral meeting, with their deputies attending instead.

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