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Sept 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Investors will not be able to switch off completely over the weekend, however, with the fast-evolving Evergrande saga making for gripping reading. On top of that, China's manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index reports for September - official and unofficial - will be released on Sunday. The MSCI World stock index's rise on Thursday was its first in 10 days, snapping its longest losing streak since November 2011. Would a partial recovery in risk appetite and reversal of many of these trades at the start of the fourth quarter be a complete surprise?
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao 私, Organizations: Investors, Treasury, International Monetary Fund, Japan Tokyo, 「 Reuters Locations: Asia, Japan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, eyeing, China, U.S, Australia
ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The 'dollar smile' can be a blessing for Wall Street, or a curse. But the speed and extent of the move in the dollar and Treasuries, and tightening of financial conditions, warrant vigilance. According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. financial conditions are the tightest this year. This is not dissimilar to other major economies and regions, some of which - the euro zone, China and emerging markets - are feeling an even tighter squeeze. It might be too early for that to appear in third-quarter results - many big Wall Street firms will have hedged their currency exposure over the near term - but if sustained, fourth-quarter profits could be affected.
Persons: Stephen Jen, reckons Stuart Kaiser, Kaiser, Goldman Sachs, Rabobank's Jane Foley, Foley, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, Citi, FCI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, China, U.S, America
He told CNBC in an interview the fourth quarter of this year would be the "litmus test" for his call. He added a recession typically starts two years after a rate hike cycle begins. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementVeteran economist David Rosenberg has been calling a recession for the last 18 months, and he isn't letting the current resilience in the US economy change his mind. "It hasn't materialized, dot dot dot, yet," Rosenberg told CNBC on Wednesday, in response to his bearish call.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg, — Squawk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Rosenberg Research, US Federal Reserve, Energy, West Texas, Brent Locations: Toronto, Saudi Arabia, Russia
"This reasoning is based on market valuations (fundamentals), investor positioning, and various macro and geopolitical considerations." Higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve have stoked investor worry on Wall Street. Kolanovic is JPMorgan's chief global market strategist who gained notoriety for correctly calling the post-pandemic rebound in stocks, something very few on Wall Street anticipated. In the near term, the strategist believes stocks could fall further until some of these headwinds subside. Most Wall Street strategists expect the S & P 500 to rebound above 4,300 before the year is out, according to the exclusive CNBC PRO strategist survey .
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, CNBC PRO
Moves in bond yields, implied inflation breakeven rates, and inflation-adjusted 'real' yields suggest investors anticipate the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy will help lower inflation to around 2.5%. But this is not a re-pricing of the Fed's near-term trajectory, rather a repricing of the longer term economic and inflation outlook. This suggests the Fed is entering a phase of structurally higher rates than perhaps policymakers themselves, and certainly investors, had anticipated. Many analysts are skeptical that moves in bond yields can be broken down, quantified and compartmentalized with any great degree of accuracy. TIPS are a key market-based barometer of investors' inflation expectations, but they have their flaws.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Marvin Barth, Barth, Torsten Slok, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chicago Fed, CNBC, Securities, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida
Agustin Carstens leaves after G-20 finance ministers and central banks governors family photo during the IMF/World Bank spring meeting in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2018. His warning comes as central banks around the world push ahead with central bank digital currency (CBDC) development in a bid to make money more high tech and keep up with the features now offered by cryptocurrencies. Some 11 countries have already launched them and next month the European Central Bank is expected to receive the green light to start work on a digital euro. Carstens, whose organisation is overseeing much of the global test work, said central banks have a mandate to meet public demands and have also made significant investments into CBDCs. "It is simply unacceptable that unclear or outdated legal frameworks could hinder their deployment," added Carstens, the former governor of the Mexico's central bank.
Persons: Agustin Carstens, Yuri Gripas, Marc Jones, Josie Kao Organizations: IMF, Bank, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, cryptocurrencies, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
Screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices are seen outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Sometimes markets get up a head of steam and it becomes very difficult to slow the momentum, far less reverse it. Asian stocks barely clawed back any of the previous days' losses either, and world stocks racked up a ninth straight decline. These moves are unlikely to provide a springboard for Asian markets on Thursday, and beyond Australian retail sales there is nothing on the economic or policy calendar likely to do so either.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Japan, China's, Australia, Germany, prelim
Asia-Pacific stock benchmarks sagged along with gold, while crude oil continued to drift back from 10-month highs. Westpac strategists see risks skewed toward even higher yields in the near term, pulling up the dollar as well. "We expect 10yr yields to establish a new, higher, yield range in coming weeks," with a possible peak around 4.75%, they said. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also touted higher rates for longer in policy meetings since the middle of the month. Crude oil remained weak amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Hong, HSI, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Gold, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, U.S, Tokyo's Nikkei, Traders, Westpac, Chicago Fed, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Britain
Dollar at 10-month top as US yields spike; yen slides
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The dollar stood by 10-month highs against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, supported by U.S. bond yields scaling 16-year peaks, while the yen tiptoed deeper into the intervention danger zone. "Few currencies will resist the bullish dollar macro resiliency theme and the euro and Chinese yuan look more vulnerable than most." The yen has slowly but inexorably slid toward the 150-per-dollar mark as policymakers stuck with ultra-easy settings. The yen hit 148.97 to the dollar on Monday and last traded at 148.72.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S, Australia's Westpac, Swiss, Traders, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Europe, Asia, U.S, Tokyo
Oil prices slipped in early trade on Tuesday amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight. The world's top economic policy makers, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have over the recent days reiterated their commitment to fight inflation, signalling tight policy may persist longer than previously anticipated. With China's Golden Week holiday starting from Sunday, oil prices could gain support from a pick-up in travel and resulting oil product demand from the world's second biggest oil consumer. We expect oil to trade above $90 per barrel during the week," ANZ Research said in a note. Oil prices have risen by around 30% since mid-year driven mostly by tighter supply, wiping off 0.5 percentage points from the global GDP growth in the second half of this year, according to JP Morgan.
Persons: Moody's, Fitch, JP Morgan Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ANZ Research Locations: U.S, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Moscow
Dollar at 10-month top as U.S. yields spike, yen slides
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar stood by 10-month highs against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, supported by U.S. bond yields scaling 16-year peaks, while the yen tiptoed deeper into the intervention danger zone. "Few currencies will resist the bullish dollar macro resiliency theme and the euro and Chinese yuan look more vulnerable than most." The yen has slowly but inexorably slid toward the 150-per-dollar mark as policymakers stuck with ultra-easy settings. The yen hit 148.97 to the dollar on Monday and last traded at 148.72. "We remain of the view that the dollar is unlikely to weaken significantly until Fed rate cuts are firmly on the horizon," she said.
Persons: Sterling, Jane Foley Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Australia's Westpac, Swiss, Traders, Bank of Japan Locations: Europe, Asia, U.S
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. Megacap growth stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Meta Platforms (META.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) lost between 0.5% and 1.3% in premarket trading. Pressuring equities, the benchmark two- and 10-year Treasury yields have scaled multi-year highs after the Fed's hawkish longer-term rate outlook, a stance also projected by other major central banks. Meanwhile, a 25-basis-point rate cut is being priced in as early as March, growing to over 33% in June and July. DraftKings (DKNG.O) rose 3% after J.P. Morgan upgraded the online sports and gaming company's stock to "overweight" from "neutral".
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Moody's, Stuart Cole, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Sunday, Apple, Microsoft, Dow e, Treasury, Equiti, Traders, Investors, Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PDD Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bengaluru
[1/2] Thailand's central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But another day of curve steepening, and 10-year nominal and real yields rising to new multi-year highs crushed stocks. U.S. bond market volatility - a key driver of global market stability and liquidity - had its biggest rise since early July. Investors in Asia will also note the significance of U.S. crude oil's rise on Tuesday after a few days of consolidation, not for the 1% rise in itself, but because it lifts the year-on-year price rise to almost 20%.
Persons: Jorge Silva, Jamie McGeever, Dow Jones, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Bank, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bank of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand, Treasuries, Asia, Thailand's, Australia, China
German export sentiment drops to three-year low - Ifo
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
In its fifth consecutive month of decline, the institute's export expectations indicator fell to minus 11.3 points in September, from minus 6.5 points in August. "Germany's export economy is going through a weak phase," Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said. "It's likely that export demand won't pick up again significantly until next year," he added. Wohlrabe said higher interest rates were dampening demand for German goods. Last month's hopes for growth in the German chemical industry did not materialize in September, according to the survey.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, Amir Orusov, Rene Wagner, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Bremerhaven, Germany, Ifo
Pump jacks operate at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO/BEIJING, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday amid concerns that fuel demand will be crimped by major central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, even with supply expected to be tight. Higher interest rates slow economic growth, which curbs oil demand. With China's Golden Week holiday starting from Sunday, oil prices could gain support from a pick-up in travel and resulting oil product demand from the world's second biggest oil consumer. Oil prices have risen by around 30% since mid-year driven mostly by tighter supply, wiping off 0.5 percentage points from the global GDP growth in the second half of this year, according to JP Morgan.
Persons: Nick Oxford, Tina Teng, Moody's, Fitch, CMC's Teng, JP Morgan, Baden Moore, Katya Golubkova, Andrew Hayley, Sonali Paul Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Brent, U.S, West Texas, CMC Markets, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, bbl, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Midland , Texas, Rights TOKYO, BEIJING, Auckland, U.S, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Moscow, Tokyo, Beijing
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, September 22, 2023. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS), which is heading for its worst monthly performance this year, with a 3.6% drop, was down 0.2% on the day. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have nudged at 4.5% for the first time since October 2007, and on Monday were up 5 basis points at 4.491%, set for their largest monthly rise in a year, reflecting investor unease over the economic outlook. The dollar index got a boost from the rise in Treasury yields, rising 0.1% on the day. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $93.48 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 0.1% to $90.16.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Frederik Ducrozet, Ducrozet, Powell, Evergrande, Andrew Lilley, Kazuo Ueda, Stella Qiu, Himani Sarkar, Jacqueline Wong, Miral Fahmy, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Global, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Pictet Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Barrenjoey, Bank of Japan, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S, Europe, CHINA
A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying various countries' stock price index outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. S&P 500 futures , however, rose 0.3% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, after Hollywood's writers union reached a preliminary labor agreement with major studios. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.5%, edging back to a 10-month low plumbed just last week. U.S. central bank officials will be out in force this week, starting with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Monday. Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $93.79 per barrel.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, HSI, Louis Kuijs, Neel Kashkari, Andrew Lilley, Stella Qiu, Himani Sarkar, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Hengda, Estate Group Co, U.S, Minneapolis, European Central Bank, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe SYDNEY, China, U.S, Europe, Asia, Pacific, firming, U.S . Federal
Sliding yen raises intervention threat, dollar reigns
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "I don't think the level matters that much and will be the trigger (for intervention). Yellen said last week whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying intervention by Japan "depends on the details" of the situation. Elsewhere, the euro gained 0.05% to $1.0649, after having fallen to a six-month low of $1.0615 on Friday against a stronger dollar. The dollar index , which on Friday touched an over six-month high, firmed at 105.58.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, Governor Ueda, Carol Kong, Janet, Yellen, Sterling, Thierry Wizman, Rae Wee, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, Bank, Fed, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Washington, Japan, U.S
A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying various countries' stock price index outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. The yen was jittery near the closely watched 150 per dollar level amid intervention fears, after the Bank of Japan made no change to its dovish monetary policy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.6%, edging closer to a ten-month low plumbed just last week. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan, expects good news from U.S. and European inflation results this week, which should show low core inflation readings. The yen last traded at 148.41 per dollar, after hitting a fresh 10-month low of 148.49 earlier in the day.
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Hong, HSI, Louis Kuijs, Andrew Lilley, Bruce Kasman, Stella Qiu, Sonali Paul, Himani Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, JPMorgan, U.S ., Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, U.S, Europe, Asia, Pacific, U.S . Federal
Sliding yen stokes intervention threat; dollar reigns
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "I don't think the level matters that much and will be the trigger (for intervention). Yellen said last week whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying intervention by Japan "depends on the details" of the situation. Elsewhere, the euro gained 0.04% to $1.0649, after having fallen to a six-month low of $1.0615 on Friday against a stronger dollar. The dollar index , which on Friday touched an over six-month high, firmed at 105.57 in early Asia trade.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, Governor Ueda, Carol Kong, Janet, Yellen, Sterling steadied, Thierry Wizman, Rae Wee Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, Bank, Fed, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Washington, Japan, U.S, Asia
Sliding yen stokes intervention threat, dollar reigns
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
An employee counts Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the Birdy Exchange in Hong Kong, China. Several factors were supporting the recovery in the Japanese yen on Tuesday. Yellen said last week whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying intervention by Japan "depends on the details" of the situation. Elsewhere, the euro gained 0.04% to $1.0649, after having fallen to a six-month low of $1.0615 on Friday against a stronger dollar. The dollar index , which on Friday touched an over six-month high, firmed at 105.57 in early Asia trade.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Governor Ueda, Carol Kong, Janet, Yellen, Sterling steadied, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Birdy, Bank of Japan, Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, Treasury, Bank, Fed, New Zealand Locations: Hong Kong, China, Washington, Japan, U.S, Asia
European markets opened lower Monday as investors reflected on a spate of central bank decisions last week and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.3% in early trade, with all sectors in negative territory. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank opted to pause their interest rate hiking cycles last week, in contrast to the "dovish hike" delivered by the European Central Bank on Sept. 14. Elsewhere, U.S. stock futures edged higher in overnight trading, set to enter the last week of trading in September with big losses. Stocks stateside have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski Organizations: Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ING, CNBC, Stocks, Federal Reserve
U.K. pauseThe Bank of England opted to pause interest rate moves after 14 straight hikes, keeping its main policy rate at 5.25%. The decline came despite interest rate hikes generally boosting the value of a currency. Scandinavian inflationIn northern Europe, Norway and Sweden opted for rate hikes on Thursday and suggested that further tightening could be ahead. Norway's headline inflation rate was 4.8% in August, with core inflation at 6.3%. The Norges Bank forecast now indicates a policy rate of 4.5% through 2024, up from the current 4.25%.
Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, BoE, Alastair Grant, ALASTAIR GRANT, Carsten Brzeski, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Paul Dales, Simon French, Panmure Gordon, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Ida Wolden Bache, Bache Organizations: Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Afp, ING, CNBC, of England, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Panmure, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, Norway's Norges Bank, Norges Bank Locations: London, U.K, Paul, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Norway's
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Oil prices have risen, meaning drivers are paying more for gasoline and truckers and farmers more for diesel. Here are things to know about the recent increase — and where prices might be going:WHY HAVE OIL PRICES RISEN? “The last thing you want to do is fuel inflation again with much higher oil prices. Diesel prices have risen as well, along with higher oil costs and refineries facing shortages of the specific kinds of crude best for making diesel. HOW DO HIGHER OIL PRICES HELP RUSSIA?
Persons: Jorge Leon, That's, Leon, ” Leon, , , Thu, Nguyen, Commerzbank, Gary Peach, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Joe Biden, Biden, Josh Boak Organizations: , Saudi, Brent, Rystad Energy, Energy Intelligence, U.S, AAA, Diesel, Kremlin, Kyiv School of Economics, Policy Center, Union, Group, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Associated Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Russia, Saudi, OPEC, China, Europe, U.S, Ukraine, Moscow, Brussels, Washington
Canadian dollar edges higher as 10-year yield hits 4%
  + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3470 to the greenback, or 74.24 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3455 to 1.3491. Among G10 currencies, only the Swedish crown performed better than the Canadian currency, as the U.S. dollar (.DXY) extended its recent gains against a basket of major currencies. Still, speculators have raised their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the most since May, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. The 10-year was up 11.2 basis points at 4.026%, its first move above the 4% threshold since January 2008.
Persons: Mark Blinch, Price, Tony Valente, Fergal Smith, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, U.S ., Fed, BoC, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading, Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, Swedish, Russia, U.S
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