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WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The headline number in the U.S. October jobs report released on Friday showed firms adding a more-than-expected 261,000 jobs and hourly wages continuing to rise, evidence of a still-tight labor market. Those labor force flows are significant in their own right. Reuters GraphicsAt the same time, the number of unemployed people who found a job fell to about 300,000 below its yearly average. The net change, in other words, was driven this time by job loss and a shortfall in job finding. On average over the past year the number of unemployed has fallen by about 117,000 per month.
A new pay transparency law is now in effect in New York City, and it's set to help millions of workers across the U.S. earn more money. It could also make sense for companies to publicize pay ranges on all jobs if they plan to allow any work to be done remotely. The law's start date was delayed from the spring after fierce opposition from New York City business groups. Starting January 2023, states including California, Rhode Island and Washington will require companies to list salary ranges in job ads. jobs.citi.comThe problem with basing salary ranges for a current listing on what people previously made is that it could be outdated.
"The report to us looks like payroll jobs growth will falter in coming months as companies batten down the hatches as the Fed continues to take away the economy's punch." The survey of establishments showed nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month. Still, the labor market remains tight, with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person at the end of September. The increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% September reflected a 328,000 decline in household employment. "The hope is that the labor market is merely returning to a more normal pace, rather than sitting dead in the water."
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe unemployment rate for Black men ticked down in October while it rose for most other groups, but that may be because workers are dropping out of the labor force. For Black men, unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.8% a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. Though overall there is strength in the labor market, "this is not the tight labor market where people can just walk in and get a job no matter who they are." Overall Black unemployment ticked up led by Black women. In October, the unemployment rate for Black women jumped to 5.8% from 5.4% in September.
Although the number was better than expected, it still marked the slowest pace of job gains since December 2020. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 for the month while the unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Those payroll numbers were better than the Dow Jones estimate for 205,000 more jobs, but worse than the 3.5% estimate for the unemployment rate. Traders expect the Fed to enact another .5 percentage point increase in February. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point even though the labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a point to 62.2%.
The Bank of England hiked its benchmark interest rate by an historic 75 basis points Thursday — its largest increase since 1989. Toby Melville | Afp | Getty ImagesLONDON — The Bank of England warned Thursday that the U.K. is facing its longest recession since records began, with the economic downturn expected to extend well into 2024. watch nowThe forecast, outlined at the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting Thursday, would constitute the country's longest — though not deepest — recession since the 1920s when reliable records began. At its meeting in August, the Bank had predicted the U.K. was facing its longest recession since the global financial crisis, lasting five quarters to the end of 2023. Andrew Bailey Governor, Bank of England"We have inflation coming back down to target; and going below target actually.
Since then workers at 243 other stores spread over 38 states have voted to join Starbucks Workers United — that’s more than five stores a week. Still, most of the fired workers nationwide remain off the job, including Tambellini. “The pizza place next door [to the Starbucks store I worked at] offered me a job almost immediately,” said Tambellini. Starbucks employees and supporters react as votes are read during a union-election watch party in Buffalo, New York. The Starbucks workers are really demonstrating that it’s possible to unionize in an industry where it was thought of as impossible to organize, due to high turnover and a large percentage of young people,” he said.
Hauser is originally from Wisconsin and moved to North Carolina seven years ago for work. And questions over abortion rights are fueling concerns about the future of access to birth control and gender-affirming care. The North Carolina Business Council, for one, declined to comment because this is "not an area of focus" for the group. Chuck Bryan is an IT professional who moved to North Carolina from Florida five years ago. He cited Kansas' referendum to preserve abortion rights as an example of what can happen when people use their voice in politics.
Russia's top central banker Nabiullina has now warned of higher inflation, thanks to Putin's military draft. She said the draft could lead to structural changes in the labor market, leading to higher labor costs. The Russian central bank expects the country's inflation rate to hit 12% to 13% in 2022. Putin's partial mobilization order has wreaked havoc among Russians and sent many fleeing the draft. Despite the negative fallout from Putin's draft, Nabiullina hedged her bleak outlook on the economy and said the economy "has been adapting to the external restrictions more quickly," in part, due to record-high farm harvests this year.
Job openings surged in September despite Federal Reserve efforts aimed at loosening up a historically tight labor market that has helped feed the highest inflation readings in four decades. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million, well above the FactSet estimate for 9.85 million, according to data Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The latest numbers are unlikely to sway central bank officials from approving what likely will be a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase this week. That was slightly better than the Dow Jones estimate for 50.0 but 0.9 percentage point lower than September. Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 0.75 percentage point increase, while narrowly expecting another 0.5 percentage point move in December, according to CME Group data.
Ukraine economy to shrink by almost 32% in 2022 - central bank
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Oct 27 (Reuters) - Ukraine's economy will shrink by almost 32% this year and annual inflation will accelerate to 30%, largely due to the damage done by Russia's invasion, the Ukrainian central bank said on Thursday. Assuming security risks decline and demand picks up, gross domestic product will grow by around 4% to 5% per year in 2023 and 2024, the bank said in a quarterly inflation report. This will support the economy during the war and, coupled with the easing of security risks, contribute to economic recovery." Inflation - currently at almost 25% - should ease to 21% next year and drop to below 10% in 2024, the bank said. Under an alternative scenario, which assumes security risks will last till mid-2024, GDP growth will be just 2% to 3% a year in 2023 and 2024.
[1/3] Manuela Teixeira, who runs six businesses in Old Chelsea village, stands at the counter of her cafe Biscotti & Cie, which she says faces a dire labor shortage, in Old Chelsea, Quebec, Canada, October 3, 2022. Canada has the worst labor shortages in the Western world, according to the latest OECD data from late 2021. Quebec's immigration ministry didn't respond to a query on the arrival caps and labor challenges for this article. The new census data showed 28.7% of recent immigrants to the province spoke French as their first language, up from 25.7% in 2016. When company workers had to isolate after arriving from Tunisia during COVID-19, people in the town rallied to help with supplies, she said.
That’s why it’s so surprising that the US economy is expected to show robust growth in Thursday’s third-quarter GDP report. Economists warn that the report could be a one-hit-wonder that overstates momentum in an economy that is actually slowing. “There is more braking power being inflicted on the US economy than will be at all apparent in the third-quarter GDP report,” wrote Kelly. Central bank officials are going to be looking at underlying metrics in the report, and will likely ignore headline numbers, said Patterson. The bottom line: The rejiggering of trade balances often falsely inflates economic growth calculations ahead of a recession.
The report found that workers without paid sick leave quit at three to four times the rate of comparable workers between 2019 and 2021. About a quarter of workers in the U.S. do not have paid sick leave, a proportion that is higher among lower-wage workers. In the congressional report, salaried workers — who typically enjoy more benefits and stability — fared better than hourly workers within companies. Female hourly workers experienced worse outcomes than male hourly workers 30% of the time, but among salaried workers, the difference was less than 10%. Both Black and Asian hourly workers were less likely to be promoted than their white counterparts, while Black hourly workers were fired at higher rates than white ones.
Inflation and avian flu are the main reasons consumers can expect to pay more for turkey this year, an expert says. The avian flu has appeared in 42 states and killed nearly 7.3 million turkeys in 2022, according to reports. In a September interview, poultry industry expert Thomas Elam said consumers should expect "record turkey prices" for Thanksgiving in part because of an avian flu outbreak. The avian flu has appeared in 42 states in 2022 and is continuing to spread as the holiday season approaches. Although the higher price reflects a lower turkey population this Thanksgiving season, Elam said he's certain the birds won't become completely unavailable.
Schatz of Heritage Capital looks for what he calls "high-flier" or "second-tier" technology stocks severely battered this year but pushing higher. Playing defense When looking outside of big tech, investors may also want to consider looking out for more defense-focused names. His picks include IBM, which trades at just 14 times forward earnings and offers a sticky revenue base. Schatz of Heritage Capital looks for what he calls "high-flier" or "second-tier" technology stocks severely battered this year but pushing higher. His picks include IBM, which trades at just 14 times forward earnings and offers a sticky revenue base.
Oct 20 (Reuters) - Pandemic disruptions to learning and education could have detrimental effects on the U.S. workforce and economy going forward, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Thursday. "Education is the greatest and most effective input into the future of our labor market," Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to a U.S. central bank seminar. "In order to have the strongest possible labor force in the future, it is critical to understand and act immediately to address the educational losses experienced during the pandemic." Her prepared remarks did not include any comments on monetary policy or the economic outlook. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The 26-year-old developer explains what exactly goes into completing a new housing development. His company is wrapping up a 250-home development called Somerset Hills in Fairburn, Georgia, a suburb outside of Atlanta. His team has 10 homes to finish before the development project is complete. Insider spoke to Uboh about what exactly goes into completing a new housing development from the ground-up. Identify your vision and strategyThe first phase of the process is nailing down your vision and strategy for the project.
The great labor shortage caused by the declining population will cripple our global economy unless we find innovative ways to keep things running. The German working population will have declined by a third, based on the average scenario from the researchers, and in Italy, Spain, and Greece it will have declined by more than half. We are already experiencing the beginning of this great labor shortage in industries ranging from airlines to day cares. In the US, the increase in the number of retirees compared with the working population is already straining the system. To combat the coming population bust, the world will need nothing less than a revolution of our minds.
Economists from UCLA, Northwestern and Princeton universities found that pandemic trends, such as increased work flexibility, helped push up US birth rates last year to 6.2% from pre-pandemic levels, marking the first major reversal in declining fertility rates since 2007 and counteracting a longstanding economic certainty: Birth rates don’t increase during economic downturns. The baby bump was also pronounced among women aged 30 to 34 and those between the ages of 25 and 44 with a college degree. The latter group was more likely to retain their job during the pandemic and work from home. The pandemic helped to expose the critical role the child care industry serves in bolstering labor market participation. “The US has experienced declining fertility rates now for over a decade, and this has been a concern to many policymakers,” he said.
Local operators have installed prayer rooms and hung flags from workers' home countries in office bullpens to attract and retain staff. Warehouse work pays well — often double the local minimum wage — for people without college degrees or specialized trade skills. Organizing efforts have sprung up, as some unions see the pace and danger of warehouse work as a chance to mobilize. A leaked memo from 2021, first reported by Recode, showed Amazon warehouses had annual turnover of 159% in 2020. Amazon employs more warehouse workers than any other company, with a US warehouse workforce of roughly 700,000 people.
US-based fabs, or chip manufacturing plants, currently only account for 12% of the world’s modern semiconductor manufacturing capacity, according to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group. Some 75% of the world’s modern chip manufacturing is now concentrated in East Asia – a majority of that in geopolitically-vulnerable Taiwan. Now, simply having the facilities already set up to produce or expand chip manufacturing gives Asia a big advantage. This is not yet the case in places like Arizona and Ohio, where plans to build massive chip manufacturing plants are already underway. If not, even the billions of dollars committed by the private and public sector may not be enough to reshore semiconductor manufacturing.
Stephen and Karen White retired in 2021, but then they rejoined the workforce. The couple made the choice to retire in the beginning of 2021 after visiting Washington, but the pandemic's impact also played a role. After both officially retired in the summer of 2021, skyrocketing inflation pushed the couple to walk back their plans and go back to the workforce grind. Stephen went back to work in education. "Workers who say they've retired regularly return to work after some time away."
Persistently higher inflation and rapid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are raising the risk of a crash in the bond market, according to Bank of America. The strategists note that a Bloomberg measure of bond market volatility is at its highest level since the financial crisis of 2008. Inflation-induced 'crash' Bank of America points to current economic conditions as setting up badly for fixed income. All of that does not bode well for Fed policy, which in turn will cause problems in the bond market, the bank said. The BofA strategists expect "a chaotic move significantly higher, in a bond market crash context."
But she said the current priorities for global economic officials were controlling inflation, improving fiscal policy after massive spending early in the pandemic, and finding ways to buffer developing countries against the global rise in interest rates. How do we build fiscal space given that we've used up so much" fighting the initial shock of the pandemic? Studies have begun documenting a potentially permanent blow to labor supply from the pandemic. In the United Kingdom, long-term illness has sidelined more than 377,000 people since the start of the pandemic, about 1% of the labor force. It may be only the beginning of understanding what the pandemic has meant and how the world may need to prepare for the next shock.
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